Possible Terrorist Attack in Nice, France against Bastille Day Crowd

By Melissa Pavlik

A truck drove into a crowd in Nice, France in a possible terrorist attack, killing up to 73 and injuring up to 100 during a Bastille Day parade. There have not yet been any claims of responsibility.

French authorities issued a warning on 13 JUL 2016 of possible ISIS-linked attacks in France in the near future. 

• French officials briefed that ISIS will use VBIEDs and other IEDs to perpetuate attacks in France
• French internal security cited concerns about a “serious threat” on 14 JUL 2016, which is Bastille Day

 ISIS-linked individuals have used this tactic previously in France.

•  On 21 DEC 2014 a pro-ISIS individual rammed a car into a crowd in Dijon, France, injuring 13 individuals
• On 22 DEC 2014 a driver rammed his vehicle into a crowd of shoppers in Nantes, France, injuring 11 individuals

An attack targeting French soldiers in Nice in early 2015 may have also been linked to ISIS.

•  On 03 FEB 2015 French police arrested a man, Moussa Coulibaly, for using a knife to attack three soldiers guarding a Jewish community center in Nice, France.

This incident, if confirmed as a terrorist event, would advance ISIS by showing the group’s continued ability to perpetrate attacks in major European countries, even as it loses territory in core terrain. ISW has assessed that ISIS is pursuing such a strategy. It also demonstrates the limitations of European countries to prevent such attacks, even when security forces possess intelligence suggesting their likelihood.  

More information and analysis to follow.

Read ISW's report on likely ISIS actions during Ramadan in ISIS Forecast:  Ramadan 2016 (27 MAY) as well as our round-up of ISIS actions in ISIS's Regional Campaign: Ramadan 2016 (13 JUL).

Iraq Situation Report: March 29 - April 4, 2016

By Patrick Martin and ISW Iraq Team

Key Take-Away: ISIS conducted a wave of explosive attacks across Iraq aimed at disrupting the forward operations of the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF). Coalition-trained elements of the ISF, supported by local forces, converged on Hit District in western Anbar and the village of al-Nasr, west of Makhmur, conducting operations aimed at recapturing areas on key ground lines of communication. ISIS launched a responsive wave of suicide attacks in both Hit and Makhmur, as well as in the vicinity of Baghdad, primarily aimed at hard targets in order to arrest the ISF’s forward progress and to force a contraction of security forces towards Baghdad and central Iraq. The attacks included suicide attacks on April 4 in Basra and Dhi Qar Provinces, areas that have not seen spectacular attacks since October 2015 and June 2014, respectively. The attacks, combined with the spectacular attacks in Babil Province on March 6 and 25, indicate that ISIS is reconstituting capabilities in southern Iraq. Continued spectacular attacks and instability in the southern provinces would have the potential to seriously restrict the ability of the ISF and Popular Mobilization to conduct operations in northern and western Iraq, as forces would need to redeploy to southern Iraq, an area where few ISF formations are present, to re-establish security.

Iraq Situation Report: October 16 - 20, 2015

By: Patrick Martin, Logan Brog, and ISW Iraq Team

Iraq Situation Report: October 6 - 15, 2015

By: Patrick Martin and ISW Iraq Team

Iraq Situation Report: October 2 - 5, 2015

By: Patrick Martin and ISW Iraq Team

Iraq Situation Report: September 26 - October 1, 2015

by: Patrick Martin and ISW Iraq Team

Iraq Situation Report: September 22-25, 2015

by: Patrick Martin, Logan Brog, and ISW Iraq Team

Iraq Situation Report: August 28 - 31, 2015

by: Sinan Adnan, Patrick Martin and ISW Iraq Team

Iraq Situation Report: August 25 - 27, 2015

by: Sinan Adnan,Theodore Bell, Patrick Martin and ISW Iraq Team

Iraq Situation Report: August 14-17, 2015

by Patrick Martin and ISW Iraq Team

Iraq Situation Report: August 4 - 6, 2015

by Theodore Bell and ISW Iraq Team

Iraq Situation Report: July 14 - 16, 2015

Theodore Bell, and ISW Iraq Team

Iraq Situation Report: June 27 - 29, 2015

Sinan Adnan, Theodore Bell, Patrick Martin, and ISW Iraq Team

ISIS Counterattacks in Northern Syria

by: Christopher Kozak with Jennifer Cafarella

ISIS launched a series of spectacular counterattacks on June 24-25 in a two-pronged line of effort targeting Kurdish and regime forces in northern Syria. ISIS conducteda wave of suicide attacks in Hasaka City in northeastern Syria on June 24, detonatingtwo SVBIEDs as well as three or four SVESTs targeting Kurdish internal security and regime-held checkpoints in a move likely intended to soften the city’s defenses. ISIS later launchedan offensive against Hasaka City on June 25, detonating at least one VBIED and seizingthe regime-held southwestern neighborhoods of the city. ISIS’s advance allegedly received supportfrom tribal fighters previously aligned with the Assad regime. Simultaneously, approximately thirty to forty ISIS fighters disguisedin Kurdish YPG and Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebel uniforms infiltratedthe Kurdish border town of Ayn al-Arab (Kobani) on June 25, detonating twoSVBIEDsat the border crossing to Turkey and clashing with YPG forces.

ISIS’s synchronized attacks in northern Syria likely represent part of an overarching campaign to contain its opponents in the area and set conditions for further advances in Syria. The attacks in Ayn al-Arab (Kobani) and Hasaka City appear designed to disrupt ongoing YPG-led anti-ISIS operations in northern ar-Raqqa Province in order to divert pressure away from core ISIS terrain in ar-Raqqa City. The scale of the ISIS offensive against Hasaka City also suggests that ISIS may intend to seize the city to offset recent losses to Kurdish and rebel forces along the Syrian-Turkish border at the border crossing of Tel Abyad as well as the town of Ayn Issa and its associated Brigade 93 base further south. At minimum, ISIS’s attacks in Ayn al-Arab and Hasaka City demonstrate that ISIS possesses sufficient resiliency to absorb losses in northern Syria without losing the capability to conduct military operations. Alternately, reports indicating that ISIS did not mount fierce resistance in either Tel Abyad or Ayn Issa suggest that ISIS may have accepted a degree of calculated risk north of ar-Raqqa City in order to conserve resources for new lines of effort targeting Hasaka City, central Syria, or other regions of the country. 

Iraq Situation Report: June 13 - 15, 2015

By: Theodore Bell, Patrick Martin, and ISW Iraq Team

Iraq Situation Report: June 11 - 12, 2015

By: Theodore Bell, Patrick Martin, and ISW Iraq Team

Iraq Situation Report: May 9-11, 2015

By: Sinan Adnan, Patrick Martin, and Omar Dulimi

Iraq Situation Report: May 4-6, 2015

by: Sinan Adnan, Patrick Martin, and Omar Dulimi

Iraq Situation Report: May 4, 2015

by Sinan Adnan, Patrick Martin and Omar al-Dulimi

Iraq Situation Report: April 25-27, 2015

by: Sinan Adnan, Patrick Martin, and Omar al-Dulimi