The Challenge of Stability and Security in West Africa

The Challenge of Stability and Security in West Africa

Alexandre Marc, Neelam Verjee, and Stephen Mogaka

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Attribution—Please cite the work as follows: Marc, Alexandre, Neelam Verjee, and Stephen Mogaka. 2015. The Challenge of Stability and Security in West Africa. Africa Development Forum series. Washington, DC: World Bank. doi:10.1596/978-1-4648-0464-9. License: Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 3.0 IGO

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ISBN (paper): 978-1-4648-0464-9

ISBN (electronic): 978-1-4648-0465-6

DOI: 10.1596/978-1-4648-0464-9

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Africa Development Forum Series

The Africa Development Forum Series was created in 2009 to focus on issues of significant relevance to Sub-Saharan Africa’s social and economic development. Its aim is both to record the state of the art on a specific topic and to contribute to ongoing local, regional, and global policy debates. It is designed specifically to provide practitioners, scholars, and students with the most up-to-date research results while highlighting the promise, challenges, and opportunities that exist on the continent.

The series is sponsored by the Agence Française de Développement and the World Bank. The manuscripts chosen for publication represent the highest quality in each institution and have been selected for their relevance to the development agenda. Working together with a shared sense of mission and interdisciplinary purpose, the two institutions are committed to a common search for new insights and new ways of analyzing the development realities of the Sub-Saharan Africa region.

Advisory Committee Members

Agence Française de Développement

Jean-Yves Grosclaude, Director of Strategy

Alain Henry, Director of Research

Guillaume de Saint Phalle, Head of Research and Publishing Division

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World Bank

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West Africa Subregion and Members of the Ecomonic Community of West African States (ECOWAS)

Titles in the Africa Development Forum Series

Africa’s Infrastructure: A Time for Transformation (2010) edited by Vivien Foster and Cecilia Briceño-Garmendia

Gender Disparities in Africa’s Labor Market (2010) edited by Jorge Saba Arbache, Alexandre Kolev, and Ewa Filipiak

Challenges for African Agriculture (2010) edited by Jean-Claude Deveze

Contemporary Migration to South Africa: A Regional Development Issue (2011) edited by Aurelia Segatti and Loren Landau

Light Manufacturing in Africa: Targeted Policies to Enhance Private Investment and Create Jobs (2012) by Hinh T. Dinh, Vincent Palmade, Vandana Chandra, and Frances Cossar

Informal Sector in Francophone Africa: Firm Size, Productivity, and Institutions (2012) by Nancy Benjamin and Ahmadou Aly Mbaye

Financing Africa’s Cities: The Imperative of Local Investment (2012) by Thierry Paulais

Structural Transformation and Rural Change Revisited: Challenges for Late Developing Countries in a Globalizing World (2012) by Bruno Losch, Sandrine Fréguin-Gresh, and Eric Thomas White

The Political Economy of Decentralization in Sub-Saharan Africa: A New Implementation Model (2013) edited by Bernard Dafflon and Thierry Madiès

Empowering Women: Legal Rights and Economic Opportunities in Africa (2013) by Mary Hallward-Driemeier and Tazeen Hasan

Enterprising Women: Expanding Economic Opportunities in Africa (2013) by Mary Hallward-Driemeier

Urban Labor Markets in Sub-Saharan Africa (2013) edited by Philippe De Vreyer and François Roubaud

Securing Africa’s Land for Shared Prosperity: A Program to Scale Up Reforms and Investments (2013) by Frank F. K. Byamugisha

Youth Employment in Sub-Saharan Africa (2014) by Deon Filmer and Louis Fox

Tourism in Africa: Harnessing Tourism for Growth and Improved Livelihoods (2014) by Iain Christie, Eneida Fernandes, Hannah Messerli, and Louise Twining-Ward

Safety Nets in Africa: Effective Mechanisms to Reach the Poor and Most Vulnerable (2015) edited by Carlo del Ninno and Bradford Mills

Land Delivery Systems in West African Cities: The Example of Bamako, Mali (2015) by Alain Durand-Lasserve, Maÿlis Durand-Lasserve, and Harris Selod

Enhancing the Climate Resilience of Africa’s Infrastructure: The Power and Water Sectors (2015) edited by Raffaello Cervigni, Rikard Liden, James E. Neumann, and Kenneth M. Strzepek

Africa’s Demographic Transition: Dividend or Disaster? (2015) edited by David Canning, Sangeeta Raja, and Abdo S. Yazbeck

The Challenge of Stability and Security in West Africa (2015) by Alexandre Marc, Neelam Verjee, and Stephen Mogaka

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Contents

Boxes

Figures

Maps

Tables

Foreword

West Africa has come of age. The last decade has seen the subregion make tremendous strides in democratic consolidation and advance the cause of regional cooperation, while enjoying a surge in economic growth. Battered by civil war and political strife during the 1980s and 1990s, and undermined by poor governance, the subregion has emerged into the new millennium with a renewed sense of purpose and identity.

Economic growth has been on a rising trend since the middle of the last decade, powered by high commodity prices across natural resource-rich countries. The push toward greater openness is reinforced by an increasingly youthful citizenry, educated and impatient for change and clamoring to have their voices heard. The advent of social media, technological innovations, and globalization has multiplied avenues and opportunities for expression and participation that previous generations could only have dreamed of, all the while fostering greater accountability and transparency.

Despite its remarkable progress, the subregion still faces formidable challenges from various quarters. The emergence of new threats, such as narco-trafficking, maritime piracy, and religious extremism, as seen in Mali and northern Nigeria, presents a significant test for the institutions and capacities of the worst affected countries.

The devastation of the Ebola epidemic has also underscored the institutional weakness of postwar countries such as Liberia and Sierra Leone, as well as the impact of political instability in Guinea. It highlights the legacy of conflict, and its consequences for future generations, as well as the herculean effort required to rebuild institutions and infrastructure in the wake of conflict, regain the trust of the public, and regenerate social cohesion.

Drivers of fragility in West Africa are represented in the lack of clarity around land ownership, the neglect and the marginalization of peripheral regions, which are also often border regions, and the demographic challenge posed by an increasingly youthful population demanding greater inclusion, in particular through jobs and livelihood opportunities. There is also the rapid development of the extractives industry, which, if not well managed, creates opportunities for rent capture and generates more grievances than benefits at the local level.

As with many of the region’s potential conflict triggers, some sources of tension also represent the potential and vitality of the subregion. For instance, West Africa has one of the most mobile populations in the world; the migratory populations that have at times been seen as contributing to instability and conflict as a result of competition over land, resources, and jobs are also a key motor that drives the economies of the subregion.

This study offers a very timely overview of the trends and dynamics of conflict and fragility in West Africa, as well as an analysis of some of the major drivers of fragility and conflict in the subregion. It is important to improve our understanding of how development policy can contribute to peace and stability and how we can better address the new challenges that are obstructing the impressive progress that West Africa has made in recent times.

Makhtar Diop

Vice President, Africa Region

World Bank

Acknowledgments

This volume is part of the African Regional Studies Program, an initiative of the Africa Region Vice Presidency at the World Bank. This series of studies aims to combine high levels of analytical rigor and policy relevance, and to apply them to various topics important for the social and economic development of Sub-Saharan Africa. Quality control and oversight are provided by the Office of the Chief Economist of the Africa Region.

This report has been prepared by the Fragility, Conflict, and Violence Group at the World Bank. It integrates the findings, and some of the analysis, of six thematic papers prepared by high-level experts on the West Africa subregion and commissioned by the World Bank. A member of the World Bank staff managed each paper, and Alexandre Marc led the overall study. This report was written by Alexandre Marc, Neelam Verjee, and Stephen Mogaka, and edited by Lauri Scherer.

The paper on trafficking and organized crime was prepared by an internal team from the World Bank that included Côme Dechery and Laura Ralston, with inputs from Mathieu Pellerin from the Institut Francais des Relations Internationales. International Alert prepared the paper on youth dynamics, employment, and generational gaps under the guidance of Alys Willman at the World Bank. The paper on the responses to the new security threats and the security sector was prepared by the Institute of Security Studies and Dr. David Zounmenou and was overseen by Roland Lomme at the World Bank. Professor Francis Stewart and Professor Arnim Langer prepared the paper on horizontal inequalities and regional imbalances, under the guidance of Alexandre Marc at the World Bank. The paper on land conflicts, migration, and citizenship was prepared by Kerry Maze of the International Organization for Migration, under the guidance of Peter Van der Auweraert of the International Organization for Migration and Deborah Isser at the World Bank. Dr. Roy Maconachie and Nicholas Menzies prepared the paper on mining and extractive industries, under the guidance of Radhika Srinivasan at the World Bank.

The report has benefited from being peer reviewed by Lynne Sherburne-Benz, Bernard Harborne, Bryan Christopher Land, Nadia Fernanda Piffaretti, and Michael Woolcock, all of the World Bank. The overall study has benefited from the advice of Alys Willman of the World Bank. The authors are grateful to Francisco H. G. Ferreira of the World Bank for his comments and his support.

About the Authors

Alexandre Marc is the chief specialist for the Fragility, Conflict, and Violence Group of the World Bank. He was the cluster leader for the Social Cohesion and Violence Prevention team within the Social Development Department of the World Bank from 2009 to 2012. He has extensive experience in the areas of conflict and fragility and has worked on related themes across four continents over the past 22 years. He joined the World Bank in 1988 in the Africa Region. From 1999 to 2005, he was sector manager for social development in the Europe and Central Asia Region of the World Bank and was responsible for postconflict reconstruction programs in eastern Europe. In addition to his World Bank experience, he was director of the Roma Education Fund from 2006 to 2007; in 2005, he was a visiting fellow at the Centre d’Études et de Recherches Internationales in Paris, responsible for research on cultural diversity and public policy. Marc was chair of the Global Experts Team on Conflict and Fragility and was a contributor to the World Bank’s World Development Report 2011: Conflict, Security, and Development. He holds a doctorate in political science from the Paris Institute of Political Science (Sciences Po). Before joining the World Bank, Marc undertook research and consulting on Africa at Oxford University (St. Antony’s College) and for the Société d’Études Économiques et Sociales in Paris. His most recent publications are Societal Dynamics and Fragility: Engaging Societies in Responding to Fragile Situations (World Bank 2013) and Violence in the City: Understanding and Supporting Community Responses to Urban Violence (World Bank 2010).

Neelam Verjee has worked for the Fragility, Conflict, and Violence Group of the World Bank since December 2013. She has a master’s degree in public administration from the School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University, where she focused on security studies and conflict, and a bachelor of science degree in social policy and government from the London School of Economics. Previously, she worked as program manager at Sisi Ni Amani, a Kenyan-based nongovernmental organization that developed technology as a tool for peace building, and on capacity-building projects at the World Policy Institute in New York. Verjee has written extensively for the print media; she spent five years as a business reporter and features writer for the Times newspaper in London, as well as worked as a features writer for Mint newspaper in Mumbai, India, where she covered the entertainment industry and Bollywood. She is a contributor to Quartz, the online global news publication of Atlantic Media, and has done stints with television and radio.

Stephen Mogaka works with the Fragility, Conflict, and Violence Group of the World Bank. He is a political scientist by background, with a bachelor’s degree in political science from the University of Delhi in India and a master’s degree in political science from the University of Nairobi in Kenya. Mogaka has a wealth of experience in research on and analysis of issues related to conflict and postconflict recovery. His areas of expertise concern politics in Africa, particularly related to identity-based conflicts; democratic transitions; civil-military relations; and the politics around the emergence of extractives across the continent, with a focus on East Africa and the Horn of Africa.

Abbreviations

Introduction

The rise in violence and conflict in West Africa since 2010 has sparked concerns that emerging threats could derail hard-won economic gains and undermine future development. Upheaval in Mali and in Nigeria shows that West Africa is still prone to violence. Drug trafficking and maritime piracy have taken root, locking some countries into fragility traps.

The surge in violence and conflict comes as the subregion has registered some of the most impressive growth rates seen on the continent in years. West Africa is the fastest-growing subregion in Sub-Saharan Africa, having