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    A Livable Future is Possible: Confronting the Threats to Our Survival
    A Livable Future is Possible: Confronting the Threats to Our Survival
    A Livable Future is Possible: Confronting the Threats to Our Survival
    Ebook374 pages5 hours

    A Livable Future is Possible: Confronting the Threats to Our Survival

    By Noam Chomsky and C. J. Polychroniou

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    About this ebook

    A sweeping yet penetrating collection of interviews with Noam Chomsky, exploring the most pressing global concerns of our time.

    In these illuminating interviews conductedby C.J. Polychroniou, Noam Chomsky yet again shares his brilliant insights on an array of struggles and challenges facing humanity. A Livable Future Is Possible addresses artificial intelligence and the potential for such programs to surpass humans in cognitive awareness; what lies ahead for a world engulfed in a deadly climate crisis; the rise of neo-fascism internationally, and why we should organize across borders to confront it; the striking similarities between Trump and Biden's foreign policies; and a number of other critical issues gripping the planet.

    Noam Chomsky has been an incomparable model of moral clarity and intellectual courage during his many decades as a scholar and critic. He is the most cited living scholar. One would be hard-pressed to find a more influential voice than Chomsky’s in the West. A Livable Future Is Possible is not only an urgent and informative resource, it is a call-to-action for those hoping to help carry the torch of one of history’s greatest minds.

    LanguageEnglish
    PublisherHaymarket Books
    Release dateDec 10, 2024
    ISBN9798888902851
    A Livable Future is Possible: Confronting the Threats to Our Survival
    Author

    Noam Chomsky

    Noam Chomsky is Institute Professor (emeritus) in the Department of Linguistics and Philosophy at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Laureate Professor of Linguistics and Agnese Nelms Haury Chair in the Program in Environment and Social Justice at the University of Arizona. A world-renowned linguist and political activist, he is the author of numerous books, including On Language, Understanding Power (edited by Peter R. Mitchell and John Schoeffel), American Power and the New Mandarins, For Reasons of State, Problems of Knowledge and Freedom, Objectivity and Liberal Scholarship, Towards a New Cold War, The Essential Chomsky (edited by Anthony Arnove), On Anarchism, The Chomsky-Foucault Debate (with Michel Foucault), and The Withdrawal and On Cuba (both with Vijay Prashad), all published by The New Press. He lives in São Paulo, Brazil.

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      Book preview

      A Livable Future is Possible - Noam Chomsky

      © 2024 C. J. Polychroniou and Valeria Chomsky

      Published in 2024 by

      Haymarket Books

      P.O. Box 180165

      Chicago, IL 60618

      773-583-7884

      www.haymarketbooks.org

      [email protected]

      ISBN: 979-8-88890-285-1

      Distributed to the trade in the US through Consortium Book Sales and Distribution (www.cbsd.com) and internationally through Ingram Publisher Services International (www.ingramcontent.com).

      This book was published with the generous support of Lannan Foundation and Wallace Action Fund.

      Special discounts are available for bulk purchases by organizations and institutions. Please email [email protected] for more information.

      Cover design by Steve Leard.

      Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication data is available.

      CONTENTS

      Preface

      Just Transition Can Stop Earth from Becoming Uninhabitable

      On the State of the World

      Artificial Intelligence: Myth, Reality, and Future

      Is a Livable Future Still Possible?

      A Stronger NATO Is the Last Thing We Need as Russia-Ukraine War Turns One

      Right-Wing Insurrection in Brazil Held Strong Echoes of January 6

      Another World Is Possible. Let’s Bring It to Reality.

      Advanced US Weaponry in Ukraine Is Sustaining Battlefield Stalemate

      We’re on the Road to a Form of Neofascism

      US Sanctions on Iran Don’t Support the Protests, They Deepen Suffering

      Options for Diplomacy Decline as Russia’s War on Ukraine Escalates

      Midterms Could Determine Whether US Joins Ominous Global Fascist Wave

      Pushing a Viable Climate Project around COP27

      Twenty Years after Iraq War Vote, US Continues to Flout International Law

      Brazil’s Runoff Election Will Have Enormous Effects on the Global Climate Crisis

      US Must Join Global Call for Negotiations as Russia Escalates Actions

      The US and Israel Are Standing in the Way of an Iran Nuclear Agreement

      The War in Ukraine Has Entered a New Phase

      Humanity’s Fate Isn’t Sealed—If We Act Now

      Maintaining Class Inequality at Any Cost Is GOP’s Guiding Mission

      Six Months into War, Diplomatic Settlement in Ukraine Is Still Possible

      Twenty-First-Century US Foreign Policy Is Shaped by Fears of China’s Rise

      US Government’s Nonresponse to Climate Crisis Has Historical Precedent

      Biden’s Middle East Trip Contains Echoes of Trump’s Policies

      Humanity Faces Two Existential Threats. One Is Nearly Ignored.

      The Historic NATO Summit in Madrid Shored Up US Militarism

      Index

      About the Authors

      PREFACE

      The interviews in this volume with the world’s greatest public intellectual alive, and one of the most cited scholars in modern history, are a sequel to the collection of interviews that appeared in Illegitimate Authority: Facing the Challenges of Our Time and which was published in 2020 by Haymarket Books. They extend and update discussions on some of the most pressing world problems, such as the climate crisis, the consequences of the ongoing war in Ukraine, and the rising nuclear risk, while exploring at the same time the features of the emerging new world order and looking at the dangerous new hot zones around the globe. The fascist threat in the United States and Biden’s foreign policy add to concerns both about the future of whatever is left of American democracy and that of the world at large.

      However, optimism over despair has always been one of Noam Chomsky’s mottos, and thus he contends that humanity can avert a climate catastrophe and a nuclear holocaust. He is ninety-five years old and still stresses with the same firm conviction that has characterized his entire extraordinary life that activism is key to building a better world. In terms of the existential threat of the climate crisis, he greatly admires the contributions of the economist Robert Pollin in charting a pathway toward a post–fossil fuel transition that is just and equitable while building at the same time a new and thriving economic environment. There are quite a few joint interviews with Chomsky and Pollin on the climate crisis that are included in this volume, and Noam has always looked forward with great interest and anticipation to these collaborative undertakings as he finds the groundbreaking work that Pollin and his coworkers are doing at the Political Economy Research Institute (PERI) of the University of Massachusetts–Amherst to be of immense significance in the struggle to save the planet from irreversible destruction.

      Also addressed in this new collection of interviews is the hot topic of artificial intelligence (AI). As the towering figure in the field of linguistics for many decades, whose work has influenced such fields as cognitive science, psychology, philosophy, and computer science, Chomsky’s views on AI are of great import.

      A Livable Future Is Possible is the fourth collection of interviews with Noam Chomsky. As with the previous three books, most of the interviews included in this volume originally appeared in Truthout, a nonprofit, progressive news organization in the United States providing independent reporting and commentary on a diverse range of social justice issues. And as before, the hope in anthologizing them is that they make the views and ideas of the world’s greatest public intellectual as accessible both to a new generation of activists and concerned citizens alike, as well as to his millions of older-generation fans across the globe. As the old saying goes, the struggle continues.

      —C. J. Polychroniou

      Noam Chomsky and Robert Pollin

      JUST TRANSITION CAN STOP EARTH FROM BECOMING UNINHABITABLE

      June 7, 2023

      C. J. Polychroniou: Noam, it has been clear for decades that human activities are having a huge impact on the physical environment in many critical ways, and that we are the cause of global warming, with the burning of fossil fuels accounting for nearly 90 percent of all carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. It is true, of course, that some concrete actions have been taken over the past three decades or so to stop environmental degradation and reduce carbon emissions, but the gap between what is happening to the planet, which includes a sharp decline in biodiversity, and what is needed in terms of environmental and climate action seems to be growing rather than decreasing. Indeed, one could even argue that our handling of the climate crisis is flawed, as evidenced by the growing emphasis on carbon capture technologies rather than doing away with fossil fuels. Another revealing example of governments constantly advancing highly incomplete courses of action with regard to climate change is the adoption of a historic new law from governments across the European Union today toward deforestation. European governments have agreed to ban the import of goods linked to deforestation, but the new deforestation law does not oblige European banks or investors to stop funding deforestation. So, if it is the link between policymaking and economic interests that prevents us from implementing fully comprehensive strategies to stop environmental destruction and prevent global warming from becoming worse, what ways are there out of this conundrum?

      Noam Chomsky: Two years ago, John Kerry, Biden’s special envoy on climate, reported that he’d been told by scientists that 50 percent of the reductions we have to make (to get to near zero emissions) by 2050 or 2045 are going to come from technologies we don’t yet have.

      While intended to strike a note of optimism, this forecast was perhaps a little less than reassuring.

      A qualification was noted by political economist Adam Tooze: The pledge holds as long as the investments are profitable and de-risked by guarantees from the World Bank and International Monetary Fund.

      The technologies we don’t yet have remain technologies we don’t yet have or can realistically envision. Some progress has been reported, but it is very far from what would be required to deal with the impending crisis.

      The present danger is that what must be done to eliminate fossil fuel use is being set aside on the pretext that some remote technological breakthrough will ride to the rescue. Meanwhile, we can continue to burn up the Earth and pour even more cash into the bulging profits of the fossil fuel industry, now so overflowing that they don’t know what to do with their incredible riches.

      The industry, of course, welcomes the pretext. It might even spare some cash for carbon capture—maybe as much as a rounding error for their accountants—as long as the usual qualification holds: funded by the friendly taxpayer and de-risked. Meanwhile more federal lands are opened up for fossil fuel production, more gifts are provided to them like the 300-mile-long Mountain Valley Pipeline—Manchin’s condition for not tanking the global economy—and other such amenities.

      In the background of the euphoria about asset managers and technological miracles lies the Stimson Doctrine, enunciated by Secretary of War Henry Stimson eighty years ago as he was overseeing the huge mobilization for war: If you are going to try to go to war, or to prepare for war, in a capitalist country, you have got to let business make money out of the process or business won’t work.

      That’s how the system works—as long as we let it.

      In the early stages of the war, business was reluctant to accept the bargain. Most hated the reformist New Deal and did not want to cooperate with a government not entirely devoted to their interests. But when the spigot was opened, such reservations disappeared. The government poured huge resources into war production. Keeping to the Stimson Doctrine, policies were structured to ensure great profits for business contractors. That laid the basis for what was much later criticized as the military-industrial complex but might more accurately be described as the not-so-hidden system of US industrial policy, the device by which the public funds the emerging high-tech economy: a highly inefficient system, as elaborated by Seymour Melman and others, but an easy way to gain congressional approval for what approved rhetoric calls a marvelous system of free enterprise that helps the munificent job creators labor day and night for the benefit of all.

      Eisenhower apparently at first wanted to use the term military-industrial-congressional complex. That would have been appropriate. Why does Congress go along? One major reason is provided by political economist Thomas Ferguson’s well-confirmed investment theory of politics. In a current updating, once again corroborating the theory, he summarizes the crucial conclusion simply:

      The dominating fact about American politics is its money-driven character. In our world, both major political parties are first of all bank accounts, which have to be filled for anything to happen. Voters can drive politics, but not easily. Unless they are prepared to invest very substantial time and effort into making the system work or organizations that they control will [sic.]—such as unions or genuine grassroots political organizations—only political appeals that can be financed go live in the system [sic.], unless (of course) as helpful diversions.

      That insight into our world also offers advice as to ways out of the conundrum. And also, ways to confront the reigning Stimson Doctrine, which is a virtual epitaph for the human species in the context of the awesome and imminent threat of heating the earth beyond the level of recovery.

      It is suicidal to look away from the gap between what is happening to the planet, which includes a sharp decline in biodiversity, and what is needed in terms of environmental and climate action, a process which seems to be growing rather than decreasing. When we do look, we find a mixed picture.

      One critical case is the Amazon forest. Its central role in global ecology is well understood. It is self-sustaining, but if damaged can shift rapidly to irreversible decline, with catastrophic effects for the region, and the entire world.

      During Bolsonaro’s term in Brazil, agribusiness, mining, and logging enterprises were unleashed in an assault on the forest and the Indigenous societies that have long lived there in harmony with nature. To take just one measure, Deforestation across Brazil soared between 2019 and 2022 under the then president, Jair Bolsonaro, with cattle ranching being the number one cause. More than 800 million trees were destroyed for beef export. The main researchers, the Indigenous peoples expert Bruno Pereira and his journalist collaborator Dom Phillips, were murdered while conducting their work in the Amazon.

      Brazilian scientists report that some sectors of the forest have already passed the tipping point, transitioning to savannah, permanent destruction.

      Lula [da Silva]’s election in 2022 offered hope to limit, perhaps end, the destruction. As minister of the environment, he appointed Marina Silva, a courageous and dedicated environmentalist, with a truly impressive record. But the masters of mankind who own the economy (in Adam Smith’s phrase) never rest. Their congressional supporters are chipping away at Silva’s jurisdiction.

      Those who hope to save the world are not resting either. Brazilian ecologists are seeking ways to support Indigenous communities that have been the guardians of the forest, and to extend their reach.

      The struggle continues.

      It continues on other fronts as well. Some good news from China is summarized in the Washington Post. Reviewing many studies, the Post reports that China is far in the lead globally in churn[ing] out batteries, solar panels and other key ingredients of the energy transition as China has moved aggressively on renewables, leaving the US far behind—very far behind in per capita terms, the relevant figure. China is likely on track to meet its goals of peaking its emissions before 2030 and achieving net-zero emissions by 2060. It installed a record amount of solar power capacity last year—and this year alone is set to install more than the entire existing solar capacity of the United States.

      I’ve been mispresenting the article, however. The Post does not come to praise China, but to condemn it. Its praise is for the US, which, from its lofty perch on transitioning to renewable energy is seeking ways to pressure China to help avert climate catastrophe—the headline of the article. The article warns ominously that China is responsible for more than double US emissions; or to translate from Newspeak, China is far behind the US in per capita emissions, again the relevant figure.

      The article discusses the means under consideration to induce China to join us in our noble pursuit of saving the climate, omitting, however, the most important of these: Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said Tuesday that the US will rally allies in order to mount pressure on the world’s second-largest economy. ‘If we really want to slow down China’s rate of innovation, we need to work with Europe,’ Raimondo said.

      We have to make sure to contain China’s innovations in producing the advanced technology that might save the world. The prime method, openly announced and highly praised, is to deny China access to the computer chips that are necessary for advanced technology.

      At the same time, Raimondo warned China that the US ‘won’t tolerate’ China’s effective ban on purchases of [Idaho corporation] Micron Technology memory chips and is working closely with allies to address such ‘economic coercion.’

      More insight into the famed rules-based international order and its subtle design, as the world burns.

      India has overtaken China as the world’s most populous country, and its population is certain to continue to grow in the decades ahead. Do we have to reduce global population to save the planet?

      Chomsky: The global population should be reduced, perhaps considerably. Fortunately, there is a method to achieve this result, one that is furthermore humane and should be undertaken irrespective of the goal of saving the planet: education of women. That’s been shown to lead to sharp population reduction in both rich countries and poor.

      Education of women should be supplemented by other humane methods, such as those prescribed in the 1948 Universal Declaration of Human Rights: Motherhood and childhood are entitled to special care and assistance. All children, whether born in or out of wedlock, shall enjoy the same social protection.

      The Universal Declaration of Human Rights was initiated by the US, but that was in a different era, when New Deal social democracy still had not been undermined by the bitter business assault that finally reached its goals with Reagan. By then, the socioeconomic provisions of the declaration, including the ones just quoted, were ridiculed as a letter to Santa Claus (Reagan’s UN Ambassador Jeane Kirkpatrick). Kirkpatrick was echoed by Paula Dobriansky, the official in charge of human rights and humanitarian affairs in the Reagan and Bush administrations. Dobriansky sought to dispel the myth [that] ‘economic and social rights’ [of the declaration] constitute human rights. These myths are little more than an empty vessel into which vague hopes and inchoate expectations can be poured. They are preposterous and even a dangerous incitement, in the words of Bush ambassador Morris Abram when he was casting the sole vote against the UN Right to Development, which closely paraphrased the socioeconomic provisions of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights.

      By then dismissal of the letter to Santa Claus had become largely bipartisan, though the GOP has maintained the lead in savagery, as we can see right now in the farcical doings in Congress.

      There is a lot more to say about this, but for another time.

      Bob, a just transition is seen as essential for advancing ambitious climate change policies. Why is a just transition so crucial for effective climate action, and how exactly does it affect average citizens?

      Robert Pollin: The term just transition has been used in various ways. I will first use it to refer to measures to support workers and communities that are presently dependent on the fossil fuel industry for their incomes and well-being. I will then consider below a second use of the term, considering the ways in which high-income economies need to support the Green New Deal programs advanced by low-income economies.

      With respect to the first issue of supporting workers and communities that are now dependent on the fossil fuel industry, the broader context is very important. As we have discussed many times before, investments in energy efficiency and renewable energy to build a global zero-emissions energy infrastructure will be a major engine of overall job creation. That is, overall, saving the planet is very good for jobs. This is, of course, the opposite of the fulminations we hear from [the] likes of Donald Trump, but also much more widely across the political spectrum. The vaguely respectable version of this position is that phasing out fossil fuel consumption might well be beneficial on environmental grounds, but it [is] still going to be a job killer. And everyone other than rich coastal elites care more about jobs than the environment.

      Here is how this position can actually resonate. While the clean energy transition is indeed a major engine of job creation overall, it is still also true that phasing out the fossil fuel industry will inevitably mean losses for workers and communities that now depend on the fossil fuel industry. In the absence of generous just transition policies, these workers and communities will indeed be facing layoffs, falling incomes, and declining public-sector budgets to support schools, health clinics, and public safety. Should we be surprised that, without hard commitments to generous just transition policies, a good share of these workers and communities will vehemently oppose the fossil fuel industry phase out?

      A viable just transition program for these workers and communities needs to build from the framework first advanced by Tony Mazzocchi, the late great labor movement and environmental leader. Mazzocchi was the person who came up with the term just transition in the first place. In considering the phasing out of nuclear plants and related facilities, Mazzocchi wrote in 1993: Paying people to make the transition from one kind of economy to another is not welfare. Those who work with toxic materials on a daily basis … in order to provide the world with the energy and the materials it needs deserve a helping hand to make a new start in life.

      Starting from this Mazzocchi perspective, we still need to establish what specifically would constitute a generous set of just transition policies. For the workers, I would argue that, as a first principle, the aim of such policies should be, simply, to truly protect them against major losses in their living standards. To accomplish this, the critical components of a just transition policy should include three types of guarantees for the workers: (1) a guaranteed new job; (2) a guaranteed level of pay with their new job that is at least comparable to their previous fossil fuel industry job; and (3) a guarantee that their pensions will remain intact regardless of whether their employers’ business operations are phased out. Just transition policies should also support displaced workers in the areas of job search, retraining, and relocation. These forms of support are important but should be understood as supplementary. This is because, in themselves, they are not capable of protecting workers against major losses in their living standards resulting from the fossil fuel industry phase out.

      Among major high-income economies, just transition policies for workers have recently been enacted within the European Union, Germany, and, to a lesser extent, the United Kingdom. Such initiatives are still mainly at the proposal stages in the US, Japan, Canada. But even in the cases of Germany, the UK, and the European Union, these policies remain mostly limited to the areas of job search, retraining, and relocation support. In other words, in none of these cases have policies been enacted that provide workers with the guarantees they need.

      The most substantive commitments to just transition policies have been advanced by the European Union, within the framework of the European Green Deal. Thus, Frans Timmermans, executive vice president of the European Commission, has stated that we must show solidarity with the most affected regions in Europe, such as coal mining regions, and others, to make sure the Green Deal gets everyone’s full support and has a chance to become a reality.

      In that spirit, the European Commission established a Just Transition Fund in January 2020 to advance beyond broad principles into meaningful concrete policy commitments. Nevertheless, to date, the scope of these programs and the level of funding provided are not close to adequate to achieve the goals, set out by Vice President Timmermans, of making sure the Green Deal gets everyone’s full support. In particular, the categories of support for displaced workers under the Just Transition Fund are limited to skill development, retraining, and job search assistance. The fund does not include any provision for the most critical areas of support for workers who will be facing displacement—that is, the guarantees with respect to reemployment, wage levels, and pensions.

      To obtain a sense of what a much more robust just transition program would look like, I have developed, with coworkers, illustrative programs for eight different US states, for the US economy overall, and, most recently, for South Korea. For now, it might be useful to focus on the case of West Virginia, since it is one of the most fossil fuel–dependent state economies in the US. As such, West Virginia provides a highly challenging environment in which to mount a generous just transition program.

      It is critical that the just transition policies for West Virginia would be one component of an overall Green New Deal program for the state. Under the overall program, fossil fuel production will fall by 50 percent as of 2030 and clean energy investments will make up the difference in the state’s overall energy supply. We estimate that the clean energy investments in West Virginia will generate an average of about 25,000 jobs throughout the state through 2030.

      What about the job losses from the state’s fossil fuel industry phase out? There are presently roughly 40,000 people employed in West Virginia’s fossil fuel industry and ancillary sectors, comprising about 5 percent of the overall West Virginia labor force. But it is critical to recognize that all 40,000 workers are not going to lose their jobs right away. Rather, about 20,000 jobs will be phased out by 2030 as fossil fuel production is cut by 50 percent. This averages to a bit more than 2,000 job losses per year. However, we also estimate that about 600 of the workers holding these jobs will voluntarily retire every year. This means that the number of workers who will face job displacement every year is in the range of 1,400, or 0.2 percent of the state’s labor force. This is while the state is also generating about 25,000 new jobs through its clean energy transformation.

      In short, there will be an abundance of new job opportunities for the 1,400 workers facing displacement every year. We estimate that to guarantee these workers comparable pay levels and intact pensions, along with retraining, job search, and relocation support, as needed, will cost about $42,000 per worker per year. This totals to an average of about $143 million per year. This is equal to about 0.2 percent of West Virginia’s overall level of economic activity, GDP. In short, generous just transition policies for all displaced fossil fuel workers will definitely not create major cost burdens, even in such a heavily fossil fuel dependent state as West Virginia.

      For the other seven US states that we have examined, the costs of comparable just transition programs range between 0.001 and 0.02 percent of the state’s GDP. For the US economy overall, the just transition program’s costs would total to about 0.015 percent of GDP—i.e., one-tenth to one-twentieth of what the West Virginia program would cost relative to the overall economy’s size. In short, providing workers with robust just transition support amounts to barely a blip within the US economy. It is almost certainly the case that similarly robust just transition programs in other high-income economies would generate comparable results.

      Now let’s consider communities’ transitions. In fact, communities that are now dependent on the fossil fuel industry will face formidable challenges adjusting to the decline of the industry. At the same time, it is critical that, as I described for the case of West Virginia, the decline of the fossil fuel industry will be occurring in conjunction with the rapid expansion of the clean energy economy. This will provide a basic supportive foundation for advancing effective community transition policies.

      One important example has been the integration of clean renewable energy sources—primarily wind and solar power—into Alaska’s long-standing and extensive energy microgrid

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