Afghanistan-Pakistan Shared Waters: State of the Basins

Preface

In June 2022, Vice President Kamala Harris launched the White House Action Plan on Global Water Security, a landmark whole-of-government effort to achieve a water-secure world. The plan covers the full spectrum of global water issues and advances United States leadership on water security. The problem statement notes that water security is under increasing threat worldwide and that water insecurity is growing.

The plan outlines key links between water insecurity and shared watercourses. Specifically identified is: ‘increasing risk that actors controlling the headwaters of key rivers or water infrastructure will monopolize these resources, either to supply domestic needs or to exert pressure on downstream countries’. Equally, the plan notes that water management can directly influence political outcomes and ‘cooperation on transboundary water resources has been shown to reduce the risk of inter-state conflict’. Ultimately, the plan calls for a systems approach that transcends political boundaries to address the growing global water insecurity problem and ensure that water strengthens, rather than undermines, US national security.

In the context of water management, realizing the ambitious aim of a systems-based approach across political boundaries typically means conforming to the boundaries of river basins. As noted in Pillar 2 of the White House Action Plan (Promoting sustainable management and protection of water resources and associated ecosystems to support economic growth, build resilience, mitigate the risk of instability or conflict, and increase co-operation), collaborative monitoring and data collection and analysis will be the key to scoping the opportunities through which systems approaches can be pursued. Likewise, Pillar 2 outlines the need for the US government to support agreements among stakeholders sharing water resources to reduce conflict and contribute to broader water security aims.

This book supports the realization of Pillar 2 of the White House Action Plan on Global Water Security. The editorial and author teams have focused on various aspects of water management typically needed to pursue a systems approach in three critical river basins shared by Afghanistan and Pakistan (the Kabul, Kurram and Gomal). The book project adopted a ‘co-production approach’ which helped foster the convergence in thinking that forms the foundation for negotiated cooperative water agreements that reduce conflict and enhance water security. Above and beyond these contributions, we believe this to be one of the first efforts to advance knowledge on the three shared basins by integrating data from the two countries.

In conclusion, we hope this book reflects the beginning rather than a conclusion to the process. The history of Afghanistan and Pakistan may present one of the more challenging contexts in which to promote water cooperation and may discourage some from engaging here. I believe these greater challenges are precisely why we must engage. In the context of Afghanistan and Pakistan, cooperation on water between the two countries can provide direct benefits to water-dependent sectors that contribute to sustainable development. But cooperation on water can also provide a range of indirect benefits such as strengthening trust, fostering regional interaction that leads to benefits in sectors far removed from water, and reducing the risk of conflict.

Muhammad Azeem Ali Shah

Jonathan Lautze

Asadullah Meelad

Date: June 2023

1 Introduction

Muhammad Azeem Ali Shah, Jonathan Lautze and Asadullah Meelad

© CAB International 2023. Afghanistan–Pakistan Shared Waters: State of the Basins (eds M.A.A. Shah et al.)

DOI: 10.1079/9781800622371.0001

Chapter Overview

This chapter contextualizes the book’s aim and scope within global experiences in transboundary water management as well as regional realities of human development. The chapter rationalizes the focus on three of the nine rivers shared by Afghanistan and Pakistan, i.e., the Kabul, Kurram and Gomal, and identifies the new contribution that this book provides. Importantly, this is believed to be the first book to focus on the entirety of these three shared rivers—compiling and synthesizing data and information from both countries to distil key lessons and messages. The chapter proceeds to provide a cursory overview of the three basins to lay foundations for the more thorough elucidations in the chapters that follow. The chapter concludes with reflections on the significance of this book and its role in ameliorating conditions in the three basins.

Fig. 1.1. Kabul river near Amangarh Nowshera, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. (Used with permission).

International River Basins

Freshwater resources remain a globally threatened renewable resource despite being fundamental to an extensive range of essential ecological and societal activities, from agriculture to hydropower generation, industrial expansion and waste disposal. Freshwater resources are bounded within river basins – physiographic units circumscribed by topographic divides that limit the areas of land drained by a main river, its affluents and sub-affluents (Arai et al., 2012). River basins are often distributed across political, ethnic and cultural borders, which can give rise to intense hydro-political disputes.

Over 260 transboundary river basins cover 45% of the global land surface and account for 60% of the overall global river flow (Giordano et al., 2014; Wolf et al., 2003). The borders that give rise to international waters thus constitute a formidable factor that confounds optimal basin management and holds the potential to aggravate interstate tensions in response to concerns of perceived inequities in the allocation, use and management of water resources. To address this, three international directives offer guidance on co-operation in international watercourses. The 1992 United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) Water Convention serves as a mechanism to provide the countries sharing transboundary watercourses with a way to develop bilateral or multilateral agreements to prevent, control and reduce transboundary water impacts (Article 9). It also stipulates (Articles 3 and 8) that neighbouring states ‘may enter into, or consider harmonizing, existing watercourse agreements with the basic principles of the Convention and may consider the establishment or joint mechanisms or commissions’ (United Nations, 2022). Similarly, the 1997 UN Convention on the Law of Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses calls for and guides countries in the application of equitable and sustainable use and ‘no significant harm’ (Votrin, 2005). Finally, the 2004 Berlin Rules build on existing conventions but aim to better integrate emerging principles of ecological integrity, sustainability and public participation, also incorporating the core fundamental international environmental and human rights (Salman, 2007; Cooley et al., 2009).

There are numerous examples of successful co-operation across transboundary watercourses including the Rhine, Columbia, Danube, Senegal, Orange-Senqu, Niger and Parana rivers (Iqbal, 2020). Some of the prominent features of this co-operation include joint planning and decision-making, respect for international water laws, economic collaboration, a shared knowledge base and data exchange, involvement of key stakeholders who are not limited to government entities, and joint planning in the face of uncertainties (United Nations, 2022).

Success in the present may not necessarily withstand intensifying pressures, however. For instance, increased population, interlinked economic growth and, most important, the already changing climate may test the suitability of some international water agreements (De Stefano et al., 2012). If we cannot address these pressures, we will clearly jeopardize the current co-operative interstate relations of transboundary basin states.

Afghanistan–Pakistan Shared Waters

Afghanistan and Pakistan share nine rivers with a combined population of more than 43 million (Fig. 1.2). These watersheds have annual flows of about 26 billion m³ (bcm) per year (details in Chapter 3). A growing population is driving increased demand for resources on both sides of the border. Afghanistan occupies an unusual position in which 90% of its surface water resources are shared with downstream neighbouring countries, which include Pakistan, Iran, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan (Thomas et al., 2016). Afghanistan has experienced instability and conflict, which has led to an impasse in hydrological infrastructure development. After the regime change in 2001, Afghanistan developed ambitious plans to build dams and canal infrastructure. This resulted in objections from Iran, Pakistan and Turkmenistan (Iqbal, 2020). Not surprisingly, the unilateral development of transboundary water resources in Afghanistan has attracted little support from multilateral institutions.

Fig. 1.2. River basins between Afghanistan and Pakistan. (From: the authors)

Click to see the long description.

Box 1.1. Durand Line versus international border.

Afghan authors contributing to this book follow the term ‘Durand Line’ while the authors from Pakistan use the term ‘international border’ between Afghanistan and Pakistan. This is valid for all chapters, including maps, figures and tables.

It is important to mention here that Afghanistan and Pakistan share a 2670 km boundary, which is referred to as the ‘Durand Line’ by Afghanistan and the ‘international border’ by Pakistan. The editors have given due respect to both perspectives since the book is co-produced by authors from Afghanistan and Pakistan. Both terminologies have been used by the contributors throughout this book to reflect a balanced view and to avoid any criticism which is beyond the scope of this work (Box 1.1).

Indus basin tributaries shared by Afghanistan and Pakistan have not achieved significant advances towards co-operation nor received extensive research focus. Of the nine rivers that flow across the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan, none is governed by a formal agreement or mechanism to manage shared water resources (Shroder and Ahmadzai, 2016). There is limited information available about the status of the environment, hydrology and water resources management that could be used as a starting point for dialogue on transboundary water co-ordination.

The strategic importance of the nine shared rivers varies

Three rivers drain into the northern province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in Pakistan (KPK) while the remaining six flow into the south-western province of Balochistan. On the Afghan side, all rivers originate in the Kabul province. The three rivers that cross the international border and enter KPK are larger and provide significant average annual inflows to Pakistan (>1000 million m³ (mcm)/year) (Bhatti et al., 2021). These include the Kabul, Kurram and Gomal rivers. The remaining six rivers that enter the province of Balochistan are smaller and provide relatively small average annual inflows (<100 mcm/year) (ibid.). These include the Pishin Lora, Kandar, Kand, Kadanai, Abdul Wahab Stream and Kaiser rivers. Kabul, Kurram and Gomal have the largest annual runoff in both Afghanistan and Pakistan. Likewise, infrastructure investments are greatest in Kabul, Kurram and the Gomal basin, resulting in substantially higher use of water compared to the other six transboundary rivers. Hence, the Kabul, Kurram and Gomal basins are the focus of detailed investigations in this report.

Scope and Objectives

The objective of this book is to provide a comprehensive overview of the three major Afghan–Pakistani shared river basins in terms of their water resources, land resources, ecological health, environment, climate change and the social and economic conditions for sustainable management of water resources (Fig. 1.3). This is the first book to cover major aspects of water resources management and development on the major transboundary river basins shared between Afghanistan and Pakistan, together in one volume. It is also the first book to be published after the regime change in August 2021, through which the Taliban government returned to power in Afghanistan. This power change may alter the water resources development plans of the previous (2002–2021) regime. Several chapters explore the implications of this change on water development as well as other dynamics such as the likelihood of emigration and the potential for regional co-operation. It is our sincere hope that this book reaffirms to both countries that co-operation remains an option.

Past work on these shared waters from a basin perspective has tended to focus exclusively on the Kabul basin. For example, Iqbal (2020) talks about hydro-diplomacy in the Kabul river basin and the potential for conflict and co-operation between Afghanistan and Pakistan in this shared river basin. The research is limited to specific issues of conflict and co-operation and does not look at the broader suite of parameters related to the shared basins. Akhtar (2017) focuses on the Kabul river basin and explores the land use and land cover changes over time against the backdrop of competing uses of water and growing water demand. This research focuses on the Afghanistan portion of the Kabul river basin and does not include the Pakistan side.

Fig. 1.3. Kabul, Kurram and Gomal river basins. (From: the authors)

Click to see the long description.

This book strives to fill the gaps identified in the existing research by focusing on the three shared basins, which provide a lifeline for the people living there. The editors’ and authors’ aim is to make three key contributions: (i) provide a baseline assessment of the current state of these basins in terms of the socio-economic development, climate change impacts, surface and groundwater conditions, land use and land cover changes, water governance and institutional landscape; (ii) highlight the potential for co-operation for jointly developing shared water resources; and (iii) foster convergence in perspectives through the co-production process (more details in Chapter 2). Ultimately, an effort has been made to provide a balanced view of the state of the three river basins by incorporating inputs from both Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Kabul River Basin

The Kabul river basin carries special significance as it provides over 20 bcm of water each year and supports a population of some 34 million people in an area of approximately 92,000 km² (Masood et al., 2018). The Kabul basin is the most developed among the shared rivers. Currently, it irrigates some 506,000 ha from the Kabul river on both sides of the border. This plays a critical role in local, national and regional food security.

The Kabul river basin covers around 12% of the national territory of Afghanistan and generates about 26% of the country’s total annual surface water flow (Favre and Kamal, 2004). Around 9% of the total drainage area is cultivated. This plays a critical role in local, national and regional food security. Agriculture in the Kabul basin is the main contributor to food security in Afghanistan in terms of its cultivated area and irrigation potential. On the Pakistan side, the Peshawar Valley in KPK is considered the bread basket of the basin.

As a large basin with a high elevation drop, the Kabul basin has substantial potential for hydroelectricity that can support regional economic development mainly in the Afghan portion. The current installed hydropower capacity on the Kabul river basin in Afghanistan and Pakistan amounts to 465 MW (Khan and Nafees, 2018). The Kabul basin contains some of the major cities in Afghanistan including the capital city of Kabul. It is also one of the most populated river basins in Afghanistan. It covers 15 provinces and 106 districts in Afghanistan and two provinces and 21 districts in Pakistan.

The volume of water use activities just described (e.g. agriculture, hydropower, urban) are inherently interconnected as they all occur in the same basin. While it is certainly possible for the two countries to manage their portions of the basin unilaterally, it would seem to be in the interests of both countries to explore opportunities for co-ordination through a co-operative framework. At a fairly basic level, a minimum level of co-ordination could help to ensure actions on one side of the border do not undermine efforts on the other.

Kurram River Basin

The Kurram river originates in Paktia province in Afghanistan and enters Pakistan in Kurram district. The Kurram is the second most densely populated basin shared between Afghanistan and Pakistan with a total population of 5.5 million people. Over 70% of the basin area is in Pakistan with 87% of the basin population (details in Chapter 3). The population density is the highest among the three river basins. This density is above national averages, which gives it a special significance across the three basins. The water of the Kurram and its tributaries is essential for agriculture, domestic use and hydropower generation in both countries. Snowmelt from the upper part of the Kurram basin is the main source of surface flow into the river.

Of the total agricultural area in the Kurram basin, 18% is in Afghanistan and 82% in Pakistan (details in Chapter 7). The Kurram basin consists of predominantly rural settlements. The major part of the basin in Afghanistan consists of high elevations and mountainous terrain with fewer opportunities for large-scale agriculture expansion and consumptive use of water. However, on the Pakistan side, there are settlements on the plains with opportunities for further expansion of agriculture and consumptive use of water.

There is less tension on the Kurram as compared to the Kabul river basin. Pakistan has already developed dams and irrigation infrastructure. However, climate change and prolonged droughts in the past few decades may pose a threat to the viability of this infrastructure. It may be in the interests of both countries to develop mechanisms to cope with such uncertainties. Hence, this basin may provide an opportunity for engagement between the two governments.

Gomal River Basin

The Gomal river begins in the south-east of Ghazni province near Sarwandi in Afghanistan and crosses Paktia before entering the South Waziristan district of Pakistan. After leaving Afghanistan, the Gomal crosses South Waziristan district and serves as the boundary between KPK and Balochistan. The Gomal is the smallest basin in terms of geographical size. Only 1% of the population residing in this basin live in Afghanistan; the remaining 99% live in Pakistan (details in Chapter 3). A major share of the population lives in the rural areas on both sides of the border. Almost 98% of the agricultural area is in Pakistan (details in Chapter 3). There is considerable scope for investment to develop this basin; however, obstacles include continued political instability and the movement of migrants during prolonged periods of conflict in Afghanistan and security-based operations in Pakistan, particularly in South Waziristan district. Pakistan has invested in the construction of the Gomal Zam Dam in South Waziristan district which may serve as a catalyst for improving the livelihoods of people living in Dera Ismail Khan and Tank districts. Perennial canals irrigating an area of over 77,000 ha have been constructed as part of the dam command area, which could significantly improve livelihood conditions.

Like in the Kurram basin, there is little potential for large-scale agriculture development in the Gomal basin on the Afghanistan side due to the steep topography. However, there is considerable potential for hydroelectric power development, which would provide opportunities for collaboration whereby Afghanistan and Pakistan could jointly develop this infrastructure and reap the benefits of better water regulation and cheap electricity generation. Like the Kurram, there is no history of conflicts in the Gomal basin.

Conclusion

As further outlined in Chapter 3, the population of the Kabul, Kurram and Gomal river basins are significant in the national contexts of the two countries but impoverished by national and global standards. Almost one third of the population of Afghanistan resides in the three river basins and almost 15% on the Pakistan side. The Human Development Report 2021-22 (UNDP, 2022) ranks Afghanistan at 169 and Pakistan at 154, which indicates the poor socio-economic conditions in this region. Afghanistan (157 out of 162) and Pakistan (135 out of 162) both have relatively low gender inequality indices (UNDP, 2021). These issues are most pronounced in the Kurram and Gomal river basins where the people follow tribal norms and the majority of the population lives in rural areas.

With the fall of the Afghan Republic on 15 August 2021 and the takeover by the Taliban, conditions may change dramatically. UNDP, 2021 warned of an economic contraction because of the sudden halt in external financial support to social sectors. Under these economic circumstances, the country could be headed for humanitarian challenges (IPC 2021). Finally, there may be critical losses of capacity in Afghanistan due to emigration. As evidenced in the production of this book (see Chapter 2), the migration of Afghan technical experts may alter capacity to devise and implement development programmes that benefit the country’s population.

Against this backdrop, the authors hope that this book will serve as a baseline for assessing the current state of the three basins. Each chapter highlights opportunities for collaboration between the two governments to bring people out of poverty and safeguard livelihoods. All the basins discussed in this book have the potential for sharing the benefits of joint river basin development and avoiding conflicts that may hamper prosperity. There are significant issues of data availability to perform the necessary analyses in the three basins but every effort has been made to access what data was available on both sides of the border. The authors have acknowledged limitations where data is not available.

References

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2 Methodology: Co-production of Knowledge for Ownership and Sustainability

Asadullah Meelad, Muhammad Azeem Ali Shah and Jonathan Lautze

© CAB International 2023. Afghanistan–Pakistan Shared Waters: State of the Basins (eds M.A.A. Shah et al.)

DOI: 10.1079/9781800622371.0002

Chapter Overview

This chapter outlines the co-production process through which this book was developed. The chapter compares its approach to other efforts to generate knowledge in transboundary basin management, and points to certain comparative advantages. Four key points that motivated the book’s focus were elaborated, namely: i) new knowledge generation, ii) fostering a common perspective, iii) enhancing human development, and iv) identification of development options. The iterative process through which the book arrived at its structure, identified authors, and facilitated their joint work are also explained. Notable limitations, e.g., related to data, and challenges, e.g,, political change in Afghanistan, are acknowledged, and the nuts and bolts of chapter review and evaluation are discussed. The chapter concludes with reflection on key lessons on the co-production approach applied, such as its contribution to trust-building between experts in the two countries.