Turning up the heat: Urban political ecology for a climate emergency

Turning up the heat

Turning up the heat

Urban political ecology for

a climate emergency

Edited by

Maria Kaika, Roger Keil, Tait Mandler, and Yannis Tzaninis

MANCHESTER UNIVERSITY PRESS

Copyright © Manchester University Press 2023

While copyright in the volume as a whole is vested in Manchester University Press, copyright in individual chapters belongs to their respective authors, and no chapter may be reproduced wholly or in part without the express permission in writing of both author and publisher.

Chapter 15 is adapted from ‘Green and Gray: New Ideologies of Nature in Urban Sustainability Policy’ by David Wachsmuth & Hillary Angelo, Annals of the American Association of Geographers, copyright © American Association of Geographers, by permission of Taylor & Francis Ltd, http://www.tandfonline.com on behalf of American Association of Geographers.

Published by Manchester University Press

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British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data

A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library

ISBN 978 1 5261 7004 0 hardback

ISBN 978 1 5261 6799 6 paperback

First published 2023

The publisher has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy of URLs for any external or third-party internet websites referred to in this book, and does not guarantee that any content on such websites is, or will remain, accurate or appropriate.

Cover artwork: Leto Cornelis Bengtsson, ‘The Fire Land’ (5 May 2022), Artist’s depiction of Australia’s wildfires

Typeset by Newgen Publishing UK

Contents

List of figures

List of contributors

Acknowledgements

Prologue: Losing California – The political ecology of the megafires – Mike Davis

Introduction: Urban political ecology for a climate emergency – Yannis Tzaninis, Tait Mandler, Maria Kaika, and Roger Keil

Part I: Extended urbanisation: Moving UPE beyond the ‘urbanisation of nature’ thesis

1Capital’s natures: A critique of (urban) political ecology – Erik Swyngedouw

2Urban political ecology versus ecological urbanism – Matthew Gandy

3Towards the urban-natural: Notes on urban utopias from the decolonial turn – Roberto Luís Monte-Mór and Ester Limonad

4Circuits of extraction and the metabolism of urbanisation – Martín Arboleda

5Hinterlands of the Capitalocene – Neil Brenner and Nikos Katsikis

Part II: Situated urban political ecologies

6The case for reparations, urban political ecology, and the Black right to urban life – Nik Heynen and Nikki Luke

7Urban climate change and feminist political ecology – Andrea J. Nightingale

8Nairobi’s bad natures – Wangui Kimari

9Situating suburban ecologies in the Global South: Notes from India’s urban periphery – Shubhra Gururani

10Infrastructure beyond the modern ideal: Thinking through heterogeneity, serendipity, and autonomy in African cities – Mary Lawhon, Anesu Makina, and Gloria Nsangi Nakyagaba

Part III: More-than-human urban political ecologies and relational geographies

11Extending the boundaries of ‘urban society’: The urban political ecologies and pathologies of Ebola virus disease in West Africa – Roger Keil, S. Harris Ali, and Stefan Treffers

12In formation: Urban political ecology for a world of flows – Kian Goh

13Insurgent earth: Territorialist political ecology in/for the new climate regime – Camilla Perrone

Part IV: Addressing disjunctions between policy, politics, and academic debate

14Populist political ecologies? Urban political ecology, authoritarian populism, and the suburbs – Alex Loftus and Joris Gort

15Greenwashing and greywashing: New ideologies of nature in urban sustainability policy – David Wachsmuth and Hillary Angelo

16The peasant way or the urban way? Why disidentification matters for emancipatory politics – Irina Velicu

17Urbanising islands: A critical history of Singapore’s offshore islands – Creighton Connolly and Hamzah Muzaini

18The circular economy of cities: The good, the bad, and the ugly – Federico Savini

Epilogue: Is an integrated UPE research and policy agenda possible? – Tait Mandler, Roger Keil, Yannis Tzaninis, and Maria Kaika

Index

Figures

5.1Night-time lights of the world. Visualisation by the authors based on the publicly available dataset: VIIRS, DNB, Nighttime Lights Composites, NOAA, National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI).

5.2Spiky world: Geographical distribution of global GDP in a three-dimensional perspective. Visualisation by the authors based on the original idea of the spiky world by Florida (2005). This image is derived from the publicly available dataset: UNEP (United Nations Environment Program), 2012. Gross Domestic Product 2010.

5.3The hinterland of the ‘isolated state’: Von Thünen’s visualisation (1826).

5.4Agglomerations and the ‘used area’ of the planet in the early twenty-first century. Visualisation by the authors based on the following sources and publicly available datasets: European Commission Joint Research Center, 2016, Global Human Settlement Layer; Erb et al. (2007); Vector Map Level 0 (VMap0) dataset released by the National Imagery and Mapping Agency (NIMA), 1997.

5.5Growth in global trade of basic materials, 1960–2010. Over the past decade, the global trade in primary commodities increased more than threefold. This reflects the increasing globalisation of hinterland economies. Visualisation by the authors based on data from Krausmann et al. (2009).

5.6Worlds of specialised agricultural production, 2000. This map series depicts the geographical distribution of production sites for the five most globally traded agricultural commodities as of 2000. Visualisation by the authors based on data presented in Monfreda et al. (2009).

5.7Hinterlands of hinterlands, 2000. This map series depicts the geographical distribution of cropland areas dedicated to food, feed, or non-food uses. Visualisation by the authors based on the publicly available datasets in Cassidy et al. (2013).

5.8Mechanised, monoculture landscapes of corn and soybean production in the US Midwest, 2018. Visualisation by the authors based on the following publicly available dataset: USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Cropland Data Layer (2018), published crop-specific data layer, available at https://nassgeodata.gmu.edu/CropScape/, accessed 12 August 2022.

5.9Intensity of synthetic fertiliser application (nitrogen) over the global croplands, 2000. This map depicts annual levels and locations of nitrogen fertiliser use through a black-dotted gradient pattern. Visualisation by the authors based on the following publicly available datasets: Ramankutty et al. (2010); Potter et al. (2012).

9.1Number of water bodies lost in the Gugugram region of India over 60 years. Source: GMDA, 2019.

9.2Ghata lakebed used as a dumpsite and as settlement area for migrant workers. Source: Author, December 2018.

12.1Diagram of global-urban networks. Source: Author.

12.2Diagram of conceptual interfaces, relationships, and formations. Source: Author.

17.1Map showing the location of Singapore’s Southern and Western Islands, with the Southern Islands of St John’s, Lazarus, and Kusu circled as the focus of our field research.

17.2Signboard showing map of Semakau Landfill. Source: Author.

Contributors

S. Harris Ali is Professor of Sociology at York University in Toronto, Canada. His areas of research interest include: disaster research, environmental sociology, environmental health, and the social and political dimensions of infectious disease outbreaks. He is currently conducting research on Ebola in sub-Saharan Africa.

Hillary Angelo is an Assistant Professor of Sociology at the University of California, Santa Cruz, whose work explores the relationship between nature and urbanisation from historical, theoretical, and ethnographic perspectives. She has been published in leading social science and geography journals, including the Annals of the Association of American Geographers, Theory and Society, and the International Journal of Urban and Regional Research. Her new book is How green became good: urbanized nature and the making of cities and citizens (University of Chicago Press, 2021).

Martín Arboleda is Assistant Professor of Sociology at the Universidad Diego Portales, Santiago de Chile. His research interests include the fields of global political economy, critical social theory, and development studies. He is the author of the books Planetary mine: territories of extraction under late capitalism (Verso, 2020) and Gobernar la utopía: sobre la planificación y el poder popular (Caja Negra Editora, 2021). His research on the political economy of resource extraction in Chile and Latin America has been published in several scholarly journals. He is currently working on a long-term research project on the political economy of the globalised agro-food system, as well as on the intellectual history of economic planning during the 1960s and 1970s in Latin America.

Neil Brenner is the Lucy Flower Professor of Urban Sociology, the Director of the Urban Theory Lab, and the Chair of the Committee on Environment, Geography and Urbanization (CEGU) at the University of Chicago. His books include New urban spaces: urban theory and the scale question (Oxford, 2019) and New state spaces: urban governance and the rescaling of statehood (Oxford, 2004).

Creighton Connolly is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Urban Planning and Design at the University of Hong Kong. His research focuses on cultural politics, urban political ecology, and contestations over urban development in Malaysian cities. He uses a collaborative, action-oriented approach for his research, which involves working closely with civil society actors in research sites to identify challenges in the areas of transportation planning, environmental sustainability, public health, and heritage conservation and how they may be overcome.

Mike Davis (1946–2022) was Professor Emeritus at the University of California at Riverside. Davis, the author of City of quartz, Late Victorian holocausts, Planet of slums, and Ecology of fear, and is considered one of the founding thinkers of UPE. He was the recipient of a MacArthur Fellowship and the Lannan Literary Award. Davis was most recently the co-author with Jon Wiener of Set the night on fire: L. A. in the sixties (Verso, 2021).

Matthew Gandy is Professor of Geography at the University of Cambridge and an award-winning documentary filmmaker. His books include Concrete and clay: reworking nature in New York City (MIT Press, 2002), The fabric of space: water, modernity, and the urban imagination (MIT Press, 2014), Moth (Reaktion, 2016), and Natura urbana: ecological constellations in urban space (MIT Press, 2022).

Kian Goh is Associate Professor of Urban Planning at University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) and Associate Faculty Director of the UCLA Luskin Institute on Inequality and Democracy. She researches urban ecological design, spatial politics, and social mobilisation in the context of climate change and global urbanisation. She is the author of Form and flow: the spatial politics of urban resilience and climate justice (2021, MIT Press).

Joris Gort is a PhD Candidate in the Department of Geography at King’s College London. His research focuses on the political ecology of Dutch water management throughout the nineteenth and twentieth centuries and the way rational water management has asserted liberal hegemony. He also researches authoritarian populism and hegemony through the lens of relational comparison more broadly.

Shubhra Gururani is Associate Professor in the Department of Anthropology at York University. She also serves as the Director of York Centre for Asian Research (YCAR). Gururani’s research draws on extensive ethnographic fieldwork in the city of Gurgaon in India and focuses on the politics of land, property, urban nature/ecologies, planning, villages in the cities, agrarian-urbanism, waste, sewage, and infrastructure. Her recent publications have appeared in Urban Geography, Urbanisation, and SAMAJ.

Nik Heynen is a Distinguished Research Professor of Geography at the University of Georgia and visiting scholar at Spelman College. He studies abolitionist politics, political ecology, and cities. His main research foci relate to the analysis of how uneven social power relations – including race, gender, and class – are inscribed in the transformation of nature and space and how in turn these processes contribute to uneven development.

Maria Kaika is an urban political ecologist. She works on cities and crisis, urban radical imaginaries, and land financialisation. She is Director of the Centre for Urban Studies and Professor in Urban Regional and Environmental Planning at the University of Amsterdam. Her most recent book is The political ecology of austerity: crisis, social movements, and the environment (edited with R. Calvário and G. Velegrakis; Routledge, London, 2022).

Nikos Katsikis is Assistant Professor of Urbanism at TU Delft and affiliated researcher at Urban Theory Lab – Chicago. He works on the intersection of urbanisation theory, design, and geospatial analysis. He holds a Doctor of Design from the Harvard Graduate School of Design.

Roger Keil is Professor in the Faculty of Environmental and Urban Change, York University. The inaugural Director of the university’s City Institute and a former York University Research Chair, Keil has authored Suburban planet (Polity), co-authored Pandemic Urbanism (with S. Harris Ali and Creighton Connolly, Polity) and edited several books including The globalizing cities reader (with Xuefei Ren; Routledge), After suburbia (with Fulong Wu; University of Toronto Press) and Public Los Angeles (with Judy Branfman; University of Georgia Press).

Wangui Kimari is an anthropologist based at the Institute for Humanities in Africa (HUMA). Her work draws on many local histories and theoretical approaches – including oral narratives, assemblage theory, urban political ecology, and the black radical tradition – in order to think through urban spatial management in Nairobi from the vantage point of its most marginalised residents. Wangui is also the participatory action research coordinator for the Mathare Social Justice Centre (MSJC), a community-based organisation in Nairobi, and an editorial board member of the online publication Africa Is a Country.

Mary Lawhon is Senior Lecturer in Human Geography at the University of Edinburgh. She is a political ecologist whose work focuses on the ways in which politics shapes and are shaped by urban infrastructural flows including waste and sanitation. Her work draws on and contributes to postcolonial theory, the politics of socio-technical sustainability transitions, and urban political ecology.

Ester Limonad is Full Professor in the Department and Graduate Programme of Geography at the Fluminense Federal University (Niteroi, Brazil), where she directs a human geography and critical territorial planning research group. Her main teaching and research interests include emerging problems and conflicts related to extended urbanisation, the production of space and everyday life concerning uneven social power relations, and the appropriation of nature, with an emphasis on Brazilian urbanisation trends.

Alex Loftus is Reader in Political Ecology at King’s College London. His research addresses questions in political ecology, ranging from debates over water privatisation, to struggles over water in post-apartheid South Africa, around the right to water and, more recently, debates over the financialisation of water infrastructure. More broadly, Alex has sought to reframe political ecological questions through a philosophy of praxis as articulated through the work of Antonio Gramsci.

Nikki Luke is Assistant Professor of Geography at the University of Tennessee. She studies energy, labour, race, social reproduction, and urban political ecology in the US South. Her work has been published in Antipode, the Annals of the American Association of Geographers, American Quarterly, and Social and Cultural Geography.

Anesu Makina holds a PhD from the Department of Geography and Environmental Sustainability at the University of Oklahoma. Her work focuses on urban environmental issues.

Tait Mandler completed a PhD in Anthropology and Urban Planning at the University of Amsterdam. Their research interests include urban political ecology, agro-food economies, human-chemical entanglements, and anthropology of the senses.

Roberto Luís Monte-Mór is Full Professor at Centro de Desenvolvimento e Planejamento Regional at the Federal University of Minas Gerais. He teaches and researches in the areas of economics and urbanism, with an emphasis on theories of urbanisation, urban and regional planning, metropolitan planning, regional and urban economy, popular and solidarity economy, organisation of space and environment, production of space among traditional populations, and urbanisation and development alternatives in the Amazon.

Hamzah Muzaini is Assistant Professor with the Department of Southeast Asian Studies at the National University of Singapore with research interests on topics related to war heritage and memoryscapes, geographies and politics of theme parks, migration heritage making, and island geographies and heritage. He is author of Contested memoryscapes: the politics of second world war commemoration in Singapore (with Yeoh; Routledge, 2016) and editor of After heritage: critical perspectives of heritage from below (with Minca; Edward Elgar, 2018).

Gloria Nsangi Nakyagaba, alias Gloria Nsangi, is a PhD student and Teaching Assistant (Human Geography/GIS) at the University of Oklahoma. She is an enthusiastic urban researcher in urban infrastructure including sanitation, energy, food systems, and climate change. Her current research is examining the links between nature, environment, and modes of sanitation in Kampala which is funded by RJ Nature Project (KTH Royal Institute of Technology). She holds a Master of Arts degree in Geography from Makerere University, Kampala Uganda. Recent publications include ‘Towards a modest Imaginary? Sanitation in Kampala beyond the modern infrastructure ideal’ (Urban Studies, 2022) and ‘Power, politics and a poo pump: Contestation over legitimacy, access and benefits of sanitation technologies in Kampala’ (Singapore Journal of Tropical Geography, 2021).

Andrea J. Nightingale is Professor of Human Geography, University of Oslo, and Research Fellow, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences. Her current research passions seek to account for power and politics within dynamic and unpredictable environmental change in Nepal, Kenya, and Nicaragua. Her interests cross between climate change adaptation and transformation debates, collective action and state formation, the nature-society nexus, political violence in natural resource governance, and feminist work on emotion and subjectivity in relation to development, transformation, collective action, and cooperation. Her recent book is Environment and sustainability in a globalizing world (Routledge, 2019).

Camilla Perrone is Associate Professor on Urban and Regional Planning at the University of Florence and Founding Director of the Research Laboratory of Critical Planning and Design. Her fields of interest cover critical planning and design, DiverCity and interactive design, social, spatial and environmental justice, new sustainable forms of city and regional planning beyond traditional city design and town planning, contemporary regional urbanisation processes, interdisciplinary urban and environmental studies, and research methodology. She has published articles and books on spatial planning, participatory design, and urban policies for managing diversity.

Federico Savini is Assistant Professor in Environmental Planning, Institutions and Politics at the University of Amsterdam. In his works he studies the politics that drive institutional change, focusing on the different sets of regulations that shape city-regions and influence their ecological impact on the planet. His work envisions a degrowth path for city-regions. His most recent publication is the edited book Post growth planning: cities beyond the market economy (Routledge).

Erik Swyngedouw is Professor of Geography at the University of Manchester, UK. He holds degrees in environmental engineering, urban and regional planning, and geography. His was previously Professor of Geography at Oxford University and held the Vincent Wright Visiting Professorship at Science Po, Paris, 2014. He also holds Honorary Doctorates from Roskilde University (Denmark) and the University of Malmö (Sweden). His research focuses on political ecology, critical theory, environmental politics, democratisation, urbanisation, urban governance, politicisation, and socio-ecological movements.

Stefan Treffers is a PhD Candidate in Sociology at York University, Toronto, Canada with broad interests in urban sociology and critical criminology. His doctoral work explores the politics of urban revitalisation in post- bankruptcy Detroit. He has recently co-authored several refereed journal articles on various topics in Environment and Planning E: Nature and Space, Journal of Urban Affairs, and Housing Studies.

Yannis Tzaninis is an urban and social geographer at the University of Amsterdam. His current research focuses on urban political ecology, European suburbanisation, and discourses of space. He has published on cosmopolitanism, the urban–suburban dichotomy, utopias, place-making, and educational inequalities.

Irina Velicu is a political scientist working on environmental conflicts in post-communist countries. Her research interests revolve around political theory and aesthetics, social transformation, and equality. She is currently a co-coordinator of the PHOENIX Horizon2020 project related to green citizenship. She holds a PhD in Political Science from the University of Hawaii (USA) and an MA in International Studies from the University of Warwick (UK). Her recent publications can be found in the Journal of Rural Studies, Sociologia Ruralis, Antipode, Environmental Politics, Theory, Culture and Society, Ecological Economics, Geoforum, and Globalizations. Dr Velicu has recently edited HRANA, a collection of peasant storytelling, and is frequently a contributor to Undisciplined Environments and the Berliner Gazette.

David Wachsmuth is the Canada Research Chair in Urban Governance at McGill University, where he is also an Associate Professor in the School of Urban Planning. He directs UPGo, the Urban Politics and Governance research group at McGill, where he leads a team of researchers investigating pressing urban governance problems related to economic development, environmental sustainability, and housing markets. Dr Wachsmuth has published widely in top journals in urban studies, planning, and geography, and his work has been covered extensively in the international media, including the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, the Associated Press, and the Washington Post. He is the Early Career Editor of the journal Territory, Politics, Governance and serves on the editorial boards of the journals Urban Geography and Urban Planning.

Acknowledgements

This book has long- and medium-term histories that have accumulated multiple layers of intellectual, institutional, and personal indebtedness that we can only acknowledge here briefly. Among the long histories is certainly the collaboration of Kaika and Keil on matters urban and nature that goes back to the 1990s. Most of our close co-conspirators and comrades from the early period of UPE are in this book and we are grateful to them for allowing us to share a path in critical solidarity over those years and decades in creating one of the most rewarding, inspiring, and productive projects of our careers. It is the now time-honoured collective project of attempting to understand the urbanisation of nature that we acknowledge here as the seedbed for this particular contribution we have put between these covers.

Among the more short-term histories that need mentioning here is the opportunity that arose at the end of the Major Collaborative Research Initiative on Global Suburbanisms, sponsored by Canada’s SSHRC, and housed at York University, to look specifically at the intersection of global suburbanisation – or as we would also call it, extended urbanisation – and urban political ecologies. Global Suburbanisms funded the research for a paper, with the lead authors Yannis Tzaninis and Tait Mandler: Tzaninis, Y., Mandler, T., Kaika, M., and Keil, R. (2021). Moving urban political ecology beyond the ‘urbanization of nature’, Progress in Human Geography, 45(2): 229–52. This paper also provided the basis for the Introduction, and eventually also the Epilogue of this current book.

The paper initially provided the impetus for the Sub/urban Political Ecology Workshop, also funded and co-organised to great extent by Global Suburbanisms, and co-organised and hosted by the University of Amsterdam in February 2019. We would like to specifically thank Cara Chellew and Lucy Lynch at York and Yannis Tzaninis in Amsterdam for their tireless efforts to make the event a huge success. In addition to most authors in this book, Jochen Monstadt, Sara Macdonald, Samir Harb, Marco Armiero, Cara Chellew, Lucy Lynch, Justus Uitermark, Joris Tieleman, Debra Solomon, and Mendel Giezen provided valuable input during the workshop.

It deserves mentioning that the editors met again a year later in Amsterdam, in February 2020, to forge the detailed conceptual framework for this book. It was the last collegial in-person meeting any of us attended before the world shut down due to the pandemic. We are grateful to our authors to have stuck with us during quarantine and lockdowns, grinding uncertainties as our attention shifted to an economy of care, that has preoccupied our urban world since, and to have provided us with the exceptional papers that we have assembled here. The pandemic is written into the pages of this book explicitly and implicitly. The project’s original framing around the climate emergency – fuelled by the editors’ recent first-hand experiences of the devastating fires in Australia and Greece – had provided the backdrop. In this context, we are particularly grateful to Mike Davis for setting the tone for this volume with his prefatory essay on the political ecology of California’s megafires.

In keeping with this theme, on 5 May 2022 Leto Bengtsson, the son of one of the editors, produced a captivating hand drawing. When asked what it depicted, Leto said it was Australia: its sun, its sky, and the smoke under the sky. Then when asked what the yellow-red colours and stick figures depicted he said it is Australian people dying in the wildfires. Leto called this grim, sobering picture ‘The Fire Land’.

Leto Cornelis Bengtsson gave permission to use his beautiful artwork for the book cover. Thomas Dark, Laura Swift, and Victoria Chow worked hard to deliver a well edited manuscript. Judy Dunlop produced the meticulous index.

As we were finalising this volume, the sad news of Mike Davis’s death reached us. Mike had been ill for a while and we had been in touch with him with encouragement as he was ultimately going into palliative care. We kept him abreast of the progress of the manuscript and sent him an early sketch for the cover that used Leto Tzaninis’s painting. A children’s book author late in life himself, he noted ‘Love it!’ and his wife Alessandra Moctezuma said it was ‘a beautiful cover’.

With Mike, we are losing an early proponent and profound defender of the urbanisation of nature debate that drives the discussion in this book. Nobody amongst us who has participated in that debate took it as far as Mike did over thirty years of critical interventions on the topic. He wrote about the water of the LA River, the political ecology of slums, the fragility of the desert environments, even the glacial pace that underlies our existence, and importantly the political pathology of infectious disease. And much more.

We were honoured and delighted that Mike gave us access to the text that now stands as the Prologue of this book. It is a tremendous statement of both the challenges and political opportunities that await. In the end, he wrote about fire, and he left us with this Prologue as a strong signal at the outset of the volume before us. We will honour his demand and cry to continue the struggle even in the darkest times. In the end, the collective project towards a better socio-natural future will have the upper hand. We will miss him.

Amsterdam and Toronto, October 2022

Prologue: Losing California – The political ecology of the megafires

Mike Davis

In the 1947 novel Greener than you think by the left-wing sci-fi writer Ward Moore, a mad scientist in LA, Josephine Francis, recruits a down-and-out salesman named Albert Weener, described as having ‘all the instincts of a roach’, to help promote her discovery: a compound called ‘the Metamorphizer’ that enhances the growth of grasses and allows them to thrive on barren and rocky soils. She dreams of permanently ending world hunger through a massive expansion of the range of wheat and other grains. Weener, a scientific ignoramus, thinks only of making a quick buck, peddling the stuff door to door as a lawn treatment. Desperately needing cash to continue her research, Francis reluctantly agrees and Weener heads out to the yellowed lawns of tired bungalow neighbourhoods.

To his surprise the treatment, which alters grass genes, works – only too well. In the yard of the Dinkman family, crabgrass is converted into a nightmare ‘Devil Grass’, resistant to mowing and weedkillers, that begins to spread across the city. ‘It writhed and twisted in nightmarish unease … inexorably enveloping everything in its path. A crack in the roadway disappeared under it, a shrub was swallowed up, a patch of wall vanished’ (Moore, 1947: 59). It continues to eat pavements and houses and finally consumes the city: a monstrous new nature creeping toward Bethlehem.

Greener than you think is both hilarious and slightly unnerving. But in the strangest of turns, its absurd premises are being turned into reality by climate change. Devil Grass is actually Bromus, a tribe of invasive and almost ineradicable weeds bearing appropriately unsavoury names such as ripgut brome, red brome, and cheat grass. (Their sinister allies from other tribes include scourges of medusahead, tall fescue, false brome, and barbed goat grass.) Invasion is an old California story. In the first wave, black mustard and oatgrass arrived from Europe in the Spanish period and thanks to overgrazing by wild cattle soon replaced native perennial grasses. The bromes, originating in the Mediterranean and the Middle East, came as a second wave in the late 1880s. They were described as a ‘contagion’ that ate away at the endless carpet of wildflowers whose spring displays in the foothills and valleys had stunned early visitors and put ‘golden’ in the state’s nickname (Minnich, 2008). But now increased fire frequency and exurban sprawl have become the bromes’ Metamorphizers, allowing them to rapidly conquer and degrade ecosystems throughout the state.¹

The Eastern Mojave Desert is a tragic example. En route from LA to Vegas and 20 minutes away from the state line, there is an exit from I-15 to a two-lane blacktop called Cima Road. It is the unassuming portal to one of North America’s most magical forests: countless miles of old-growth Joshua trees mantling a field of small Pleistocene volcanoes known as Cima Dome. The monarchs of the forest are 45ft high and centuries old. In mid-August 2020 an estimated 1.3 million of these astonishing giant yuccas perished in the lightning-ignited Dome Fire (Boxall, 2020). This is not the first time that the Eastern Mojave has burned, a megafire in 2005 scorched a million acres of desert but it spared the Dome, the heart of the ecosystem. Over the last generation, increasing invasions of red brome have created a flammable understory to the Joshuas and transformed the Mojave into a fire ecology (Underwood et al., 2019).² (Invasive cheatgrass and wiregrass have played similar roles in the Great Basin and eastern Washington’s prairies for decades.) Most desert plants, unlike California oaks and chapparal, are not fire-adapted, so their recovery may be impossible. Debra Hughson, the chief scientist at the Mojave National Preserve, indeed described the fire as an extinction event: ‘The Joshua trees are very flammable. They’ll die, and they won’t come back’ (Olalde, 2020).

The invasive grass–fire cycle

Our burning deserts are regional expressions of a global trend: the fire-driven transformation and replacement of native land-cover from Greenland (where wildfires are now an annual event) to Hawai’i. Even the Antarctic Peninsula now has an invasive weed problem (Hughes et al., 2020). In most cases, exotic plants – especially annual grasses and forbs – are the culprits. In southeastern US forests the devil is cogongrass from East Asia; in Australia, serrated tussock from South America; in Hawai’i, guinea grass from Africa; and in Spain, pampas grass from the Rio Plata. But bromes, superbly adapted to the Anthropocene, rule the West Coast. As Travis Bean, a weed scientist at UC Riverside, warned in 2019: ‘We have all of the nasty non-native Bromus species here in California, and the ubiquitous weeds are key drivers of increasing fire frequency’ (Kan-Rice, 2019). Increased fire frequency, in turn, opens new spaces for the propagation of these fast-growing and easily dispersed species. Where mountain chapparal, for instance, requires 20 years after fire to restore biomass, bromes need only one or two winters’ rain to sustain a large fire. Once established, the ensuing ‘invasive-grass–fire cycle’ is almost irreversible.

This is happening in all Mediterranean biomes, despite the fact that their vegetation has similarly coevolved with fire and requires episodic burns to reproduce. The current wave of annual extreme fire in the Iberian Peninsula, Greece, Australia, and California is overriding Holocene adaptations and pushing native ecosystems, many of them already degraded, past their survival tipping points. Southern California’s coastal sage scrub, for instance, is estimated to have lost 68 per cent of its area to bromes and other invading weeds (Martinson et al., 2008: 264). Although Australia is a close contender, it is California that best illustrates the vicious circle where extreme heat leads to frequent extreme fires that prevent natural regeneration and, with the help of tree diseases, accelerate the conversion of historic landscapes into parched grasslands and treeless mountain slopes. And with the loss of native plants goes much of the native fauna, from salamanders to owls.

Climate change drives landscape conversion in several different ways. From an earth-system perspective, the warming of the equator is expanding the Hadley cell, the vast system of overturning circulation that pumps hot, moist air upwards, producing tropical rainfall, then the same air masses descend in the semi-tropics as high-pressure ridges, blocking rainfall and creating most of the world’s deserts and arid lands. According to cutting-edge climate modelling from Columbia’s Lamont-Doherty earth science campus, the impact on lower-latitude temperate landscapes such as California will be profound.

The ongoing climate change and future change, if it follows the model projections, will transform and move Mediterranean-type climate regions. At the core latitudes of the regions, aridity will increase as winters become drier and temperatures increase through the year. On the equatorward flank some locations that are currently Mediterranean-type climates are likely to transition into subtropical desert or subtropical steppe.

(Seager et al., 2019: 2911)

This is likely the future of Southern California. On the other hand, the Mediterranean climate will probably move poleward into Oregon and even Washington, threatening many forests. LeRoy Westerling at UC Merced believes this transition is fully in progress and that it explains the recent epidemic of extreme fire north of San Francisco: ‘Climate change is giving [Northern California] a climate like Southern California, in terms of the degree of drying that the fuels undergo’ (Serna and St John, 2020).

Indeed, state water planners and fire authorities since the turn of the century have been intensely focused on the threat of multi-year droughts caused by intensified La Niña episodes and stubbornly persistent high-pressure domes. They also anticipated that the drying of forests would increase vulnerability to insect infestations and tree diseases. Their worst fears were realised in the great drought of the last decade, the biggest since the sixteenth century, which contributed to the death of more than 100 million bark-beetle-infested trees, which subsequently provided fuel mass for the firestorms of 2017 and 2018. At the same time an exponentially spreading fungal pandemic called ‘sudden oak death’ – which is also facilitated by drought – has killed millions of live oaks and tanoaks in the coast ranges from Big Sur to the Oregon border (Wheeling, 2020). Since the tanoaks, especially, grow in mixed forests with Douglas-firs, redwoods, and ponderosa pines, their dead hulks should probably be accounted as million-barrel fuel-oil equivalents in the current firestorms raging in coastal mountains and Sierra foothills (Frankel, 2007; Valachovic et al., 2011).

In addition to ordinary ‘dry’ droughts, however, scientists now talk about a new phenomenon in California, the ‘hot drought’. Even in years with average twentieth-century rainfall, extreme summer heat, our new normal, is beginning to produce massive water deficits through evaporation in reservoirs, streams, and rivers. In the case of Southern California’s lifeline, the lower Colorado River, a staggering 20 per cent decrease in the current flow has been predicted within a few decades, independent of whether or not watershed precipitation declines (Udall and Overpeck, 2016). But the most devastating impact of Death-Valley-like temperatures (it was 121ºF (49.4ºC) in the San Fernando Valley recently) is the loss of plant and soil moisture. A wet winter and early spring may mesmerise us with extravagant displays of wildflowers but they also produce bumper crops of grasses and herblike plants (forbs) that are then baked in our furnace summers to become fire starters when the devil winds return.

The invaders’ Darwinian edge

The bromes and other pyromaniacal weeds like black mustard, pampas grass, and French broom are the chief by-products and facilitators of this new fire regime. Years of research at experimental plots, where the scientists burn different types of vegetation and study their fire behaviour, has confirmed their Darwinian edge. They burn at twice the temperature of herbaceous ground cover, volatilising soil nutrients essential to the regeneration of native species. Whereas the historical fire season for the state’s major savanna and chapparal species – oak, chamise, manzanita, sage, and buckwheat – is six months long; the invasive bromes can burn anytime during the year. A study published in 2019 by the National Academy of Sciences estimated that invasive grasses ‘are already increasing fire occurrence by up to 230% and fire frequency by up to 150%’ (Fusco et al., 2019). They also have a formidable capacity to alter soil conditions in their favour. According to UC Riverside researchers, the invaders ‘accelerate the onset of the summer drought and decrease deep soil water recharge … inhibit[ing] the re-establishment of native shrubs and further increase vulnerability to invasion’ (Phillips et al., 2019: 1216). In addition, they sponsor the growth of microbial communities inimical to endemic plants, especially those that constitute Southern California’s coastal sage scrub ecosystem (Pickett et al., 2018).

As a result, weeds replace, often permanently, the woody native shrubs that provide net carbon storage. ‘This ecosystem conversion,’ warned scientists back in 2006, ‘has changed portions of the western US from a carbon sink to a source, making previous estimates of a western carbon sink almost certainly spurious’ (Bradley et al., 2006: 1815). Now annual firestorms kindled by weed growth are overwhelming the state’s highly advertised efforts at curbing greenhouse emissions. In seven weeks from the beginning of August 2020, megafires in California had released significantly more carbon dioxide (91 million metric tons) than produced by all the cars, cities and industries in the state in 2019 (Alberts, 2020).³

And weeds can pop up literally everywhere. It was once believed that mountain chapparal was invulnerable to the brome threat but today the wild grasses have taken over one-third of the surface area (Park and Jenerette, 2019: 460). Chapparal is adapted to intense burns within a range of 20 to 50 years, but high fire frequency – one to 15 years – ensures the dominance of invasive species and a type conversion to grasslands (Klinger et al., 2008: 185–6). Likewise closed-canopy West Coast forests have never seemed threatened because they are too cool and shaded. But a research group at Oregon State’s College of Forestry that is studying the question now warns forest managers that the species called false brome actually adapts well to forest gloom while cheatgrass immediately colonises forest burn sites. Once a durable feedback loop with fire is established, a forest grass invasion becomes, in their words, a ‘perfect storm’.

Like Weener’s Devil Grass, the invaders repel extermination campaigns. ‘Management actions,’ write the Oregonians, ‘such as thinning and prescribed fire, often designed to alleviate threats to wildfires, may also exacerbate grass invasion and increase fine fuels, with potential landscape-scale consequences that are largely under-recognized’ (Kerns et al., 2020: 2). UCLA’s Jon Keeley, a world-renown expert on fire in California ecosystems, had made the same point earlier: ‘Complete clearance can actually enhance fire spread by both increasing alien weeds that comprise flashy fuels, and by eliminating important ember catchers such as oak trees that can dampen the fire threat around homes’ (Keeley et al., 2010: 5). In any event, clearance by itself affords little or no protection. In 2019, Keeley and his colleague Alexandra Syphard published the first major survey of homes destroyed in the last decade, arriving at the ‘surprising finding’ that ‘of the structures that did have more than 30m of defensible space the vast majority were destroyed in these fires’ (Syphard and Keeley, 2019: 14; Keeley and Syphard, 2019).

In other words, the textbook prescriptions for reducing fire hazards may only reproduce them in a new form – something that is poorly understood, if at all, by public officials. This is the Achilles heel of the emergency legislation that Dianne Feinstein, with the support of Governor Newsom, is trying to push through Congress that would override federal environmental regulations to accelerate the thinning of forests and the clearance of chapparal and brush. The bulldozers and torches would invite bromes into cleared landscapes without factoring in their ability to annually generate large fuel loads. Only a sustained annual effort to reseed native plants and remove, to the extent possible, the bromes and their friends – something that would require a large army of full-time forest workers and the cooperation of landowners – could theoretically postpone the weed apocalypse. It would also require a moratorium on new construction as well as on post-fire rebuilding in the most extreme fire hazard areas, but this is hardly palatable in Sacramento even in the era of a Democratic supermajority.

Wildland gentrification

Governor Newsom and other liberal leaders address every fire emergency as the result of climate change and call for urgent action to reduce emissions. In doing so, they deliberately elide the question of what needs to be done on the ground, here and now. Such an agenda would have to directly confront the continuing dictatorship of land-extensive real-estate development, especially the sprawl along what fire experts label as the ‘wildland-urban interface’ (WUI). The Forest Service definition of WUI distinguishes between two conditions. ‘Interface’ is when suburban housing is near wildland vegetation, as in the Coffey Park subdivision of Santa Rosa destroyed by the 2017 Tubbs Fire. ‘Intermixed’, on the other hand, describes the intermingling of housing with brush and trees, the case with many homes in the doomed town of Paradise, incinerated in the 2018 Camp Fire.

A majority of new housing in California over the past 20 years has been built, profitably but insanely, in such fire ecologies and by one estimate over a quarter of the state’s population (11 million people) now lives in the WUI (Lowrey, 2020). Despite the fire storms, moreover, the juggernaut seems unstoppable. According to 2018 research by Bloomberg Business Week, ‘an estimated one million new homes will be built in California’s high-risk wildfire zones by 2050’ (Flavelle, 2018). In San Diego County alone, supervisors recently approved 10,000 new homes in ‘extreme fire-hazard locations’ in the backcountry (Smith, 2019). The exponential increase in exposure to the fire hazard can be illustrated by a recent Northern California example. ‘In 1964 the Hanly Fire in Sonoma County destroyed fewer than 100 homes. Last fall the Tubbs Fire [2017], which covered almost the same ground, destroyed more than 5,000 homes and killed 22 people’ (Flavelle, 2018). Since 40 per cent of the state’s 33 million acres of forest are privately owned (57 per cent is federal land and only 3 per cent is under state or local control), there are few restraints on future development without forceful legislative action (University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources, n.d.).

Yet such legislation, even that with the weakest wording, has always been headed off at the pass by successive Democratic and Republican governors under the sway of campaign contributors and elite voters. Thus, Newsom recently vetoed a bill that would have required local government to restrict building permits in ‘very high fire risk areas’ to only those homes that met the new fire prevention standards detailed in the bill (Weil and Simon, 2020). County ballot propositions to slow growth and protect wildlands have met the same fate up and down the coast, even in the immediate wake of local fire catastrophes. The only real restraint is the increasing reluctance of insurers to issue fire coverage, but this mainly affects ordinary homeowners not wealthy rural gentrifiers, who can easily afford higher premiums and can pay for the private fire crews recommended by the large insurers.

The uncontrolled expansion of the residential frontier into disaster-prone landscapes of course is not just a California trend: think about the building boom on Atlantic and Gulf coast barrier islands episodically submerged in hurricane storm surges. According to geographers Laura Taylor and Patrick Hurley,

Despite the common perception that the United States has become a ‘suburban nation’ …, exurbia has emerged as the dominant settlement pattern across the country …, characterized by different patterns of development and different lifestyle expectations from cities, towns, and suburbs, with houses in scenic, natural areas on relatively large acreages (often with one house per 10, 20, or 40 acres or more).

(Taylor and Hurley, 2016: 1)

Instead of densifying housing on the footprints of older suburbs, especially near rapid transit, which is the rational approach to the national housing affordability crisis, market forces are poaching the wildlands and increasing car dependency while shifting the cost of wildfire protection onto county, state, and federal governments.

But there are two very different migration streams to the backcountry. Some, like the inhabitants of Paradise, the Sierra foothill city incinerated in 2018, are rent refugees from the state’s housing crisis or ordinary folks, especially retirees, who want to own a tiny piece of the state’s beauty. Many live in trailers or manufactured homes, blending in with traditional low-income rural populations in the shadow of declining extractive industries. But they are minor players compared to the influx of wealth from the coast. Rural areas that were once ruggedly blue-collar and derided as ‘Appalachia’ (the insult long attached to eastern San Diego County where I grew up) now boast ‘starter castles’, high-end subdivisions and spa retreats. From Mendocino on the north coast to the Sierra foothills in the east and the San Diego mountains in the south, upper 5 per cent migration has been gentrifying the urban hinterlands, especially those areas with high amenity values such as ocean views, wineries, forest lakes, and colourful local histories. Increasing numbers are second or weekend homes, affordable by those who have a solid anchor in soaring coastal home equity.

An equally prized if unspoken amenity is their racial homogeneity. ‘Exurbanisation’ is often a euphemism for white flight from metropolitan diversity. California’s high-income exurbs, regardless of their politics, are almost entirely monochromatic. Nevada County, one of the fastest growing Sierra exurbs, is just 0.4 per cent Black, while more liberal Mendocino County is 0.7 per cent. As California’s suburbs turn to technicolour and become more Democratic, the population in the WUI – especially inland from the coast – trends hardcore conservative and fiercely anti-government except in fire season. One of their leading voices was Duncan Hunter, now on his way from Congress to prison, who represented the exurban corridor along I-15 from San Diego to Temecula. For years he fought endangered species legislation and restrictions on backcountry development with the same zeal that he opposed Latino immigrants and affirmative action.

This is a mindset, blind to the consequences, that allies itself to the botanical counterrevolution. Relentless land clearance and home construction fragment habitats, introduce myriad new ignition sources and promote weed invasion. Yet the newcomers in their majority are unwilling to accept state enforcement of building material codes or proposed fire zoning regulations and raise hell when foresters attempt prescribed burns (Edgeley et al., 2020). A recent report from the National Bureau of Economic Research, summarised by two journalists from ProPublica, targeted the perversity of using general tax funds to provide fire protection to wealthy exurbanites who take so little responsibility for their own safety.

The very fact that firefighting is publicly funded decreases the incentive for WUI residents to fireproof their properties [thereby] distorting the housing market further and creating moral hazard: Because much of firefighting budgets comes out federal disaster funds, publicly funded fire response decreases the incentive for a city or state – hello, California – to create and enforce