Leadership Risk: A Guide for Private Equity and Strategic Investors

Introduction

The aim of this book is to provide a guide for investors into one of the most crucial yet opaque dimensions of any investment - the management team. This book is premised on the idea that investors should not merely focus on assessing leadership but that it is necessary to assess leadership risk. From this perspective, highlighting the strengths and weaknesses of the management team represents just one part of a broader and more sophisticated process of identifying and mapping the risks arising from the leadership agenda of the investee company, in order to provide the investor with a clear view of the management- and leadership-related factors which have the potential to create or destroy value. By framing their review of management in terms of risks it is intended that investors will be able to integrate this information with other data to provide a rich picture of the overall risk landscape of the investee business.

This book has been written during a period of unprecedented turbulence in the financial environment and, at the time of writing, the impact of this on the world of private equity remains unclear. Recent years have seen significant growth within the private equity industry. Amounts raised globally have reached hundreds of billions of dollars annually compared to tens of billions only a few years ago. The size of private equity-backed deals has also grown significantly. After several record-breaking years of deal activity, the dramatic aftermath of the credit crunch is still reverberating. It seems likely that many private equity investors will now place even greater attention on generating value from their existing portfolio of investments than seeking new deals. In any event this book will be of use.

One aspect which has not changed is the extent to which the success or failure of private equity-backed deals hinges on the performance of senior management. It is widely accepted that management is often the major contributor to value creation and destruction in private equity-backed deals. Management ultimately deliver the business strategy and produce the financial performance which will lead to a successful exit. However, the effort and attention dedicated to assessing management before and after the deal is still often very low when compared to the significant impact it can have on results.

The ability to assess management quickly and accurately is one of the key skills of the private equity investor. Moreover, the ‘gut feel’ which they often rely upon as the basis for assessing management has proved in many instances to give a sound basis for the investments they make. It is not the aim of this book to judge or criticise the traditional approaches which investors use when assessing leadership in their investee businesses. The intention is rather to recognise that, whilst many investors have an instinctive flair for evaluating people, they have fewer tools and frameworks at their disposal in this area than are available when they come to analyse other dimensions of a business. We address this by exploring the issues and risks associated with leadership assessment and presenting tools and approaches which can be applied in practice. Drawing on insights from this book, investors will be able to gain a clearer picture of the people dimension of their investments as a means to maximising the value which they are able to create.

THE PROBLEMS OF LEADERSHIP RISK

One central problem facing investors is that, whilst management play a crucial role in the ultimate performance of investee companies, the process through which this is achieved is complex and hard to predict. The high level of complexity surrounding management and leadership brings with it a high level of uncertainty and where there is uncertainty there is risk.

In this book, we define ‘leadership risk’ as:

The risk that senior management, either individually or collectively, do not have, or fail to apply the necessary capability or motivation to deliver the expected performance and/or that their leadership of the enterprise limits or destroys value.

As leadership risk is at the heart of this book it is worthwhile to consider the key elements of this definition.

• ‘Senior management’ - The contribution of the most senior team in the business (possibly the board) is seen as being central.

• ‘Individually or collectively’ - Members of the senior management team have an impact as individuals and in terms of how they work with each other.

• ‘Capability or motivation’ - The assessment of senior management is seen as hinging on two central questions: ‘Can they do it?’ and ‘Will they do it?’

• ‘Expected performance’ - The investor will usually have a clear sense of how they expect the business to perform on its journey to exit and this is predicated on an assumption that the management team will perform effectively.

• ‘Leadership’ - Even if management do have the requisite capability and motivation, their stewardship of the enterprise - the decisions they make and where they place their energy and attention - may still have a negative impact on performance.

THE PROBLEMS OF LEADERSHIP ASSESSMENT

Having introduced the elements of leadership risk we can now look at some of the problems which make it so complex and uncertain. We will then show how these problems form the basis for the principles upon which the approach set out in this book is based.

Quantification and Measurement

Investors conduct thorough analysis when evaluating investments but leadership cannot be quantified in the same way as other dimensions of the business, such as the financial or the strategic. Leadership strengths and weakness cannot be ‘measured’ as such. Moreover, it is difficult, if not impossible, to identify clear causal relationships through which the strengths and weaknesses of the management team and the ultimate performance of the business are linked. This not only makes prediction difficult, it means that, even after the event, it is often difficult to ‘prove’ which management behaviours or characteristics led to which results.

Getting Below the Surface

Another factor which contributes to the complexity of leadership from an investor’s perspective is that the key drivers of leadership effectiveness or weakness are often rooted deep below the surface. Some of the most significant issues influencing commercial success or failure will not be obvious at the time of the transaction and can remain hidden as the business is incorporated into the investment portfolio. As well as being hard for the investor to identify, these may also be difficult for the management team themselves to understand. Investors are obliged to impute the suitability and capability of leaders on the basis of interviews, discussions and track record. However, future performance will be equally, if not more, influenced by inner hopes, fears, beliefs and motivations, of which even the individual concerned may not be aware.

The Effect of Being Assessed

A further layer of complexity stems from the likelihood that, in contrast to other, more impersonal, areas assessed by investors, the very act of assessing the leadership team can influence the results of that assessment. When leaders know they are being assessed, they will have a strong incentive to ‘be on their best behaviour’. The very fact that a leadership team is being assessed, particularly in such a high-stakes scenario, will influence the way they perform. As a result, it is not possible for the investor, in their capacity as assessor of the leadership team, to be entirely independent of the assessment process.

Deal Jeopardy

Further problems can also arise because, if leadership assessment forms part of the pre-deal due diligence, it is often conducted at a point in the investment process when pressure is at a peak and the stakes are at their highest. There may be constraints such as lack of time and lack of access to the senior team. Investors are keenly aware of the risk that leadership assessment may be unduly intrusive and may sour the relationship between the investor and the leadership team and even jeopardise the deal itself. These and other concerns mean that, while not disputing the central role which management can play in creating and destroying value, investors approach management due diligence with considerable caution.

THE PRINCIPLES UNDERPINNING THIS BOOK

The problems described above provide the basis for the principles upon which this book has been written. The framework which is summarised below and explained in detail in the following chapters is intended to address the complexities of leadership assessment by providing a process which has depth and rigour and will enhance rather than tarnish the relationship with the leadership team under assessment.

Process and Structure

The first principle is that leadership assessment should be conducted in a thorough and systematic manner. The framework set out in the following chapters is based around a four-stage process.

Prepare - To ensure adequate preparation it is important to:

• Establish in advance what information is required from the assessment and how this information will be used.

• Have a clear plan setting out the timetable for the assessment and specifying who will be assessing whom and in what timeframe.

• Identify and remain vigilant to factors which could influence the objectivity and accuracy of the assessment.

Assess - Conduct the assessment with rigour and ensure it is as objective as possible. It is important to make a distinction between data gathering and data evaluation. Assessors should not attempt to conduct these steps simultaneously.

Review - Consider the data gathered in a systematic and impartial manner and evaluate it in the light of the wider business agenda, other dimensions of the business and the potential impact on business performance.

Address - Translate the findings of the review into plans and actions. Have clear criteria for deciding which are high- and low-priority issues and set out a clear plan of how these will be dealt with.

Assess at Multiple Levels

The definition of leadership risk refers to the impact of leadership behaviour, both individually and collectively. We suggest that leadership assessment should embrace three levels:

• The individual level;

• The team level; and

• The business or organisational level.

Multiple Perspectives

Given the complexities associated with leadership, no single data source can be expected to suffice in its assessment. We therefore suggest that data relating to different dimensions of leadership be collected from a number of different sources and then compared and triangulated in order to build a rich picture. Specifically, we suggest that data is gathered from the perspective of ‘self’, ‘others’ and ‘context’.

Depth of Awareness

The four-step process described above ensures that the assessment process is conducted in a systematic and thorough manner. In order to ensure that the assessment is as effective as possible, the investor has to look beyond the plan and take account of what is happening below the surface. In most areas of business analysis and due diligence, the focus is on the outer world (the observable, reportable dimension) of the investee business. Whilst this level of analysis is important, when it comes to assessing leadership this is not sufficient. As we will set out in later chapters, it is also important to remain aware of the influence of what is going on below the surface (which we will refer to as the ‘inner world’) of both the investee AND the investor.

Figure I.1 indicates just some of the factors which can play a role in effectiveness on these dimensions.

Figure I.1 Factors influencing effectiveness

Remember the Relationship

We referred above to the concern that leadership assessment may damage the relationship between investor and investee. It is therefore essential that the assessment is conducted in a manner which, as far as possible, will strengthen this relationship. Here, clear communication about purpose and process is essential. If conducted properly, leadership assessment can be a means by which an investor can differentiate themselves positively from their competition and maximise the chances of the success of the transaction.

It is critical that the investor remains vigilant and self-aware and appreciates the impact they are having.

Assessment is the Beginning of a Process

A further important consideration is that leadership assessment should focus more on the future than on the past. Achieving the growth which private equity and strategic investors are looking for is predicated on significant challenge and change for the investee management team. It is possible, and even likely, that the skills and abilities which enabled the management team to grow their business to its current state will be different from the skills required to take it to the next level and achieve the satisfactory exit. Rather than a single ‘snapshot’, which forms the basis for a one-off decision (as can be the case with financial or strategic due diligence), leadership assessment should form the first step in an ongoing process of understanding and addressing the leadership agenda upon which business success is based. The aim is that the issues identified are monitored on an ongoing basis and plans put in place to address them are fine-tuned in the light of experience.

THE AUDIENCE FOR THIS BOOK

This book is intended to be a practical guide for private equity and other strategic investors. Leadership risk is a serious issue for all businesses and, indeed, all organisations. However, in the case of private equity investors or other investors making a substantial strategic investment in another business, certain factors raise the significance of leadership risk even further:

• Given the challenging growth targets often associated with such investments, significant change is implied for the investee business, which also implies significant change and challenge for the leadership team.

• Once the investor has made the investment, it is a material event for both parties and changes the world or both the investor and investee.

• The investor will have the necessary access and control to conduct an in-depth leadership risk assessment.

• The investor will have sufficient influence to be able to drive, or at least influence changes and decisions based on the result of the risk assessment.

The tone and language used assume that the reader is already familiar with the world of corporate finance. In contrast to this, the principles and frameworks relating to the assessment of leadership risk are presented in a way which does not presuppose significant prior knowledge. The terms ‘investor’ and ‘private equity investor’ are used to refer to representatives of the business making the investment who negotiate and execute deals. ‘Investee’ relates to the leadership team of the business which is being invested in.

The book will also be of interest and value to a much wider range of businesses which are not engaging in, or subject to, investment. At the start of the book, we point out that understanding leadership-related risk takes on a special significance in environments where there is growing complexity and/or rapid change. The ideas presented here will therefore be helpful to any business experiencing rapid growth and striving for ambitious targets, in which success or failure hinges on effective leadership and any assessment or leadership development activities must be very focused and closely related to business success.

The following chapters draw on insights drawn from a range of theoretical sources, including leadership research, organisational and individual psychology, and also reflect the author’s own experience of applying these in practice. Approaches are presented in practical rather than theoretical terms so that they may be readily applied in real-life situations.

It is intended that readers of this book may draw on it as a resource to support them in addressing a number of issues relating to leadership assessment within the context of reviewing businesses in their existing portfolio or conducting pre-deal leadership due diligence. Issues covered include:

• Identifying what needs to be done at each stage.

• Planning and managing the process.

• Enabling the investor to make the best possible use of whatever time and access to the leadership team is available.

• Highlighting and addressing issues relating to planning and managing leadership due diligence.

• Communicating the process to existing and prospective leadership teams undergoing assessment.

• Evaluating and selecting third-party providers who may support the leadership assessment process.

• Using and integrating the findings of the leadership risk assessment to maximise success on the route to exit.

Where appropriate lists of representative skills, characteristics and issues are presented, this is done for illustrative purposes. None of the lists presented should be interpreted as representing a ‘universal’ or exclusive checklist. Throughout the book we emphasise the importance of context and assessing specific leaders in their own terms within the specific context of the business they are leading, so there can be no universal checklists.

THE STRUCTURE OF THIS BOOK

In Chapter 1 we consider the risk landscape in which leadership risk assessment takes place and develop the themes and principles summarised above in greater depth. In Chapter 2 we introduce the elements of the four-stage leadership risk mapping model and begin to build a high-level map of the assessment process. Chapter 3 is concerned with the first stage of the model - planning and preparation - and we set out techniques which can be used to plot the critical leadership path to exit and show how this can be used to specify what needs to be assessed. The following chapters cover the assessment process itself. Chapter 4 looks at how to decide what should be assessed at an individual level and Chapter 5 looks at how to actually approach individual-level assessment. Chapter 6 explores how to decide what to assess at a team level and Chapter 7 looks at how to conduct team-level assessment. Chapters 8 and 9 deal with assessment at an organisational or business level. Chapter 10 deals with the process of analysing and interpreting the results of the assessment and producing a high-level map which charts key elements of leadership risk. Chapter 11 describes how to address the results of the review and sets out the principles of translating these into development plans so as to ensure that the insights generated by the process inform the ongoing leadership and success of the business. Finally, Chapter 12 covers the potential use of third-party consultants and provides a snapshot of the market place for relevant services. See Figure I.2 for a graphical representation of the book’s structure.

Figure I.2 Chapter overview

1

The Landscape of Leadership Risk

1.1 INTRODUCTION

One of the central ideas upon which this book is based is that, in order for private equity investors to maximise the chances of creating value in their investee companies, it is better to focus on assessing ‘leadership risk’ rather than simply assess ‘leadership’. Although the distinction between leadership and leadership risk may seem a minor one, it is in fact highly significant. The assessment of leadership is a fairly narrow activity focused on certain key individuals whereas leadership risk is much broader and takes as its starting point the chain of value creation and destruction. Whilst the primary emphasis of this book is related to how leadership risk can be assessed and managed, the current chapter sets the scene by considering the question of why leadership risk represents the problem it does. Before introducing the leadership risk mapping framework, which is described in detail in the following chapters, the current chapter is therefore dedicated to a consideration of the landscape of leadership risk which confronts private equity