Transformative Scenario Planning: Working Together to Change the Future

Praise for Adam Kahane’s books

Transformative Scenario Planning

I highly commend this book. Adam has taken scenario planning to a new level, beyond the confines of business strategy, to deal with wider social and economic issues.

—Vince Cable, Secretary of State for Business, United Kingdom

All of our toughest problems, from climate change to inequality, have complexity at their heart. Adam Kahane, with his track record of work for social and environmental justice, has written a powerful and practical guide for those hungry for new ideas about how to achieve change.

—Phil Bloomer, Director, Campaigns and Policy, Oxfam

We all face challenges and opportunities that can only be addressed with fresh understandings and innovative forms of collaboration. At Shell we have learned the value of combining scenario thinking with strategic choices. Building on his extensive practical experience, Kahane extends the boundaries of this practice.

—Jeremy Bentham, Vice President, Global Business Environment, Royal Dutch Shell

This deeply human book offers tangible means for tackling the intractable problems that confront us at every level of life, from domestic and local to national and beyond. It offers realistic, grounded hope of genuine transformation, and its insights and lessons should be part of the toolbox of everyone in leadership roles.

—Thabo Makgoba, Anglican Archbishop of Cape Town

Power and Love

This profound book offers us a wise way to negotiate our toughest group, community, and societal challenges.

—William Ury, Senior Fellow, Harvard Negotiation Project, and coauthor of Getting to Yes

This is a rare and valuable book. Kahane has immersed himself in the practical challenges of helping people effect social change, and against this backdrop he unfolds a simple and penetrating insight: that power and love are two axes that delineate our individual and collective journeys. Either we master the balance of power and love or we will fail in our efforts to realize deep and lasting change.

—Peter Senge, Senior Lecturer, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and author of The Fifth Discipline

"In Power and Love, Adam goes further and deeper into the kind of leadership that it takes to do this. A must-read for every reflective leader."

—Ravi Vankatesan, former Chairman, Microsoft India

"Kahane is a master practitioner and thinker who knows the highs and lows of solving some of the toughest problems of social discord. Power and Love is both instructive and inspiring."

—Patrick Dodson, Founding Chairman, Council for Aboriginal Reconciliation

"Power and Love should be read and reread by anyone seriously committed to addressing tough problems."

—Morris Rosenberg, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, Government of Canada

Solving Tough Problems

This breakthrough book addresses the central challenge of our time: finding a way to work together to solve the problems we have created.

—Nelson Mandela

A seminal book. Exciting, vital, essential reading.

—Edgar H. Schein, Professor of Management Emeritus, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Sloan School of Management, and author of Process Consultation

Our societies face really hard problems—poverty, injustice, sustainability, corruption—that are insoluble by conventional means. Conflicts of interest and profound uncertainties about the future are producing paralysis and inaction. Adam Kahane has, more than anyone, developed and successfully employed tools that enable us to create futures of shared progress and profit.

—Peter Schwartz, Senior Vice President for Government Relations and Strategic Planning, Salesforce.com, and author of The Art of the Long View

This book should be read by everyone who is concerned with the quality of decision making in our democracies.

—Elena Martinez, former Assistant Secretary General, United Nations

TRANSFORMATIVE SCENARIO PLANNING

OTHER BOOKS BY ADAM KAHANE

Solving Tough Problems: An Open Way of Talking, Listening, and Creating New Realities

Power and Love: A Theory and Practice of Social Change

Transformative Scenario Planning

WORKING TOGETHER TO CHANGE THE FUTURE

Adam Kahane

A Reos Partners Publication

Transformative Scenario Planning

Copyright © 2012 by Adam Morris Kahane

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, distributed, or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying, recording, or other electronic or mechanical methods, without the prior written permission of the publisher, except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical reviews and certain other noncommercial uses permitted by copyright law. For permission requests, write to the publisher, addressed Attention: Permissions Coordinator, at the address below.

Ordering information for print editions

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First Edition

Paperback print edition ISBN 978-1-60994-490-2

PDF e-book ISBN 978-1-60994-491-9

IDPF e-book ISBN 978-1-60994-492-6

2012-1

Interior design: Laura Lind Design

Cover design: Pemastudio

Copy editor: Elissa Rabellino

Proofreader: Henrietta Bensussen

Production: Linda Jupiter Productions

Indexer: Linda Webster

To Dorothy

Contents

Foreword by Kees van der Heijden

Preface

1:  AN INVENTION BORN OF NECESSITY

2:  A NEW WAY TO WORK WITH THE FUTURE

3:  FIRST STEP: Convene a Team From Across the Whole System

4:  SECOND STEP: Observe What Is Happening

5:  THIRD STEP: Construct Stories About What Could Happen

6:  FOURTH STEP: Discover What Can and Must Be Done

7:  FIFTH STEP: Act to Transform the System

8:  NEW STORIES CAN GENERATE NEW REALITIES

9:  THE INNER GAME OF SOCIAL TRANSFORMATION

Resources: Transformative Scenario Planning Processes

Notes

Bibliography

Acknowledgments

Index

About Reos Partners

About the Author

Foreword by Kees van der Heijden

WHENEVER LIFE BECOMES MORE HECTIC and uncertain, scenario planning becomes more popular. This empirical fact is not surprising. Scenario planning is in the first place a diagnostic tool for conditions in which uncertainty rules. Experience shows that the tool delivers; in most scenario planning exercises, people experience aha moments about the problematic situation they are facing. Even so, the scenario client is often left with a feeling of dissatisfaction, as it seems difficult to directly attribute action in the world to the scenario work done. It seems that important new insights gained often do not compete very successfully when the scenario planner returns to the daily work situation, where the old logics reestablish themselves around him or her. In situations of anxiety around issues in the environment, people want to see something more directly emerging from their attempts to cope with the problematic situation.

Adam Kahane thinks that scenario planning should be able to do better. He has explored the limitations of current practice and how these can be overcome in a world experiencing an increasing number of big and growing problem situations to which as yet we lack a suitable response. His conclusions are powerful in their simplicity and plausibility. He observes that while finding and sharing a rational diagnosis of the situation is a key element of any successful coping behavior, it is generally not enough for change to happen. He identifies two additional important components that scenario work needs to incorporate for it to become a more significant contributor toward real coping in a turbulent world: (1) the big issues of our days need to become a more central part of people’s personal identity and value systems; and (2) counteracting the increasing turbulence requires more focus on mobilizing autonomous system forces.

Adam Kahane’s reasoning continues a long tradition in social system theory. In the 1960s, Emery and Trist introduced the concept of the turbulent environment where massive change undermines our confidence in our ability to cope. Prigogine explained the experienced increase in turbulence as a consequence of denser connectivity in the environment as more increasingly mobile people live closer together and affect each other. More connections means more closed loops and therefore more positive feedback loops driving self-reinforcing change. The recent credit crisis is just one example.

At the Saïd Business School at the University of Oxford, we have been pursuing this line of thinking. This work has been published in the context of an ongoing series of conferences, called the Oxford Futures Forum. Our work indicates that survival in a turbulent environment requires a new response based on mobilizing the same systemic forces that generate the turbulent change in the first place. In trying to cope, we must fight like with like. That means that successful coping involves building feedback loops in the environment that can counteract the destructive autonomous loops that cause the turbulence we experience. Adam Kahane refers to this as the seeds planted by the scenario work multiplying and spreading. His observations over many years of reflective practice confirm what the theory suggests here.

In summary: In a turbulent world, successful coping requires activity in three focus areas: (1) systemic diagnosis of the situation and its context, (2) network development to enable self-reinforcing coping behavior, and (3) personal identification with the project. Scenario planning has proved itself as a successful diagnostic tool. Adam Kahane shows how consciously dealing with the developing turbulent environment now additionally requires focus on the development of self-triggering networks and personal values.

This book puts these issues on the agenda and provides us with ideas generated in the world of practice, requiring our individual and organizational attention. The world has two options. We can wait, hoping and trusting that we, or the next generation, will find some way out when the situation becomes untenable. Or we can try to anticipate and change direction by proactively improving our coping skills. If we choose the latter, Adam Kahane provides an important perspective.

Preface

EACH OF US MUST CHOOSE, in each situation, how we will approach the future. Sometimes we choose to accept what is happening around us and try to adapt ourselves to it. Other times we choose to challenge what is happening and try to change it. This is the choice that Reinhold Niebuhr pointed to in his much-loved maxim: Lord grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to change the things I can, and the wisdom to know the difference.

If we choose to try to change the future, then we must choose how. More often than not, we choose to push. We have an idea of the way we think things ought to be, and we marshal our resources—arguments, authority, supporters, money, weapons—to try to make it so. But often when we push, others push back, and we end up frustrated, exhausted, and stuck. Over and over we encounter such stuck