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    Energy Markets: Price Risk Management and Trading
    Energy Markets: Price Risk Management and Trading
    Energy Markets: Price Risk Management and Trading
    Ebook551 pages5 hours

    Energy Markets: Price Risk Management and Trading

    By Tom James

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    Price Risk Management and Trading.

    Energy risk management expert, Tom James, does it again. His latest book is a timely addition to the rapidly developing energy trading markets. This book should be on every energy trader, risk manager and corporate planer's desk. it is an easy read as Tom goes into great detail to explain the intricacies of this market and its various unique elements. - Peter C. Fusaro, Chairman, Global Change Associates Inc., Best-selling Author and Energy Expert

    This sensible and practical guide is essential for those seeking an understanding of commerce in energy derivatives. beyond merely informative, this hand book for the practitioner details the finer points of the use of derivatives as tools for price-risk management. No energy trading desk should be without it. - Ethan L. Cohen, Senior Director, Utility and Energy Technology, UtiliPoint International Inc.

    Energy markets are much more volatile than other commodity markets, so risk mitigation is more of a concern. Energy prices, for example, can be affected by weather, geopo9litical turmoil, changes in tax and legal systems, OPEC decisions, analysis' reports, transportation issues, and supply and demand - to name just a few factors. Tom James's book is a practical guide to assessing and managing these risks. It is a must-read for senior management as well as risk and financial professionals.- Don Stowers, Editor, Oil & Gas Financial Journal

    This book is the most comprehensive on price risk management-centric efforts. It provides the reader with a tangible experience of derivatives in today's capital and energy markets. The breadth and scope of the passages are immense, in that both developed and developing countries' energy markets are considered and examples applied. Terrific read! - Rashpal Bhatti, Marketing Manager, Energy Trading Asia, Enron/BHP Billiton

    Tom James has simplified the intricacies of a very complex market. In this new market of "hot" commodities, he has been able to give a fresh course to those who are new to the energy markets and a solid review for those that are well seasoned. he covers everything within the oil market from A to Z in this book and does it well. Coming from a financial background myself, it's good to finally find a book that can bring a better understanding to the field of energy commodities. - Carl Larry, Vice President Citi Energy Global Commodities
    LanguageEnglish
    PublisherWiley
    Release dateNov 27, 2012
    ISBN9781118580479
    Energy Markets: Price Risk Management and Trading
    Author

    Tom James

    Tom James is an attorney in private practice with over 20 years of experience. His practice has ranged from successfully defending First Amendment and other constitutional rights in the courts of appeals, to advising and representing web hosting services, small small businesses, nonprofit organizations and individuals. The principal focus of his practice is trademark and copyright law. He is a magna cum laude graduate of the University of California at Berkeley and Southwestern University, and a past recipient of the American Jurisprudence Award for legal scholarship A long-time member of state and local bar associations, he is licensed to practice in the state and federal courts of Minnesota, the Eighth Circuit Court of Appeals, the Federal Circuit Court of Appeals, and before the United States Trademark Trials and Appeals Board. Mr. James has published articles in a variety of bar journals and consumer periodicals, as well as online publications. In his spare time, he enjoys doing legal research, running marathons, and spending time with his children.

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      Book preview

      Energy Markets - Tom James

      Introduction

      Today, more than ever before, the management of price risk is the center of attention for the majority of energy producers and consumers around the world. Strong demand from the United States and China during the years leading up to 2007 increased geopolitical tensions surrounding energy-producing regions, and increased money flow from traders and fund managers into the energy financial markets has contributed to a combination of increased energy prices and increased volatility.

      With over US$100 billion of additional speculative money added to the energy financial markets such as the New York Mercantile Exchange (www.nymex.com) and the Intercontinental Exchange (www.theice.com) between 2000 and 2006, it’s fair to say that even if geopolitical tensions do not create any further volatility in the years to come, the increased money flows created by investors into the energy markets may continue to do so. Although investors cannot determine the long-term price trends in energy markets, which are driven by fundamental supply/demand economics, they can determine short-term volatility in price.

      The magnitude of the increase in trading in the energy markets is reflected by the phenomenal growth in the daily volumes of the global energy markets. In early 2007, the average daily value of global oil-futures contracts was around US$300 billion notional value, and close to US$800 billion when the over-the-counter (OTC) swaps markets is factored into the equation.

      What does this mean for energy-related or energy-dependent businesses? Increased volatility in prices makes it even more difficult to budget properly for revenues or expenses. Admittedly, the relationship between risk and reward is at the heart of all business. In any endeavor, the risk of heavy losses is seen as a justification for handsome returns, while lower-risk enterprises command more modest margins. Perhaps for this reason, the most risky and rewarding businesses are sometimes portrayed as a species of high-stakes casino. But such a comparison is misleading. All successful businesses must learn to assess and manage risk in ways that allow them to exploit opportunities while limiting their exposure to unpredictable factors in their operating environment. The more volatile the market, the more important this process of risk management becomes.

      The energy industry and its associated markets certainly experience more than their fair share of volatility. Indeed, historians use the more turbulent incidents in the industry’s recent past (the oil price shock of 1973 and the Gulf War of 1991) as key milestones in general economic history. Not to mention the historic and sustained price rise seen in the global oil and gas markets from 2003 to 2006.

      So it’s no surprise that, over the years, the energy industry has honed risk management into a fine art, although still perhaps not an exact science.

      One of the key concepts in this fine art is the use of derivatives: financial instruments that derive their value from an underlying asset. Derivatives contracts allow some players in a market to hedge their risks, while others take advantage of the opportunities that such hedging provides. As in other financial markets, the three main tools are futures, options and swaps. A futures contract is a way of agreeing to buy and sell an asset for delivery at a future date, while an option is a contract which confers the right but not the obligation to do so. A swap is an agreement to fix a price in an otherwise floating market.

      The idea of using derivatives in the energy market has been around for many years. The first Heating Oil (Gasoil) Futures contracts were traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange in 1979 and the first oil swap was reported in 1986 (between a bank, an oil trader and an Asian airline). But it was the Gulf War of 1991 that really brought the market to life.

      The perceived threat to the world’s oil supplies posed by Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait in August 1990 caused the price of crude oil to jump by more than 50% in a single month and the markets have never forgotten that brutal lesson. Since then, the continuing tensions in the Middle East, changes in legislation and the ongoing deregulation of economies and markets around the world have introduced more and more businesses to the risks and rewards of the volatile oil, power and gas markets. The result is that the demand for energy derivatives has increased exponentially over recent years.

      This book aims to provide practical guidance in the effective trading of energy derivatives and their use as tools of price-risk management.

      These are normally considered to be highly specialized activities, but this does not mean that they should be treated in isolation. Energy derivatives cannot be properly understood or used effectively unless they are considered as part of a bigger picture. When a company chooses to control price risk through the use of derivatives it may find that it increases the risks in other areas of its business; for example, it may increase its operational, legal or tax risks. For this reason, this book covers many of the issues and topics surrounding energy-price risk management to ensure that the use of derivatives does not cause any unwanted or unplanned difficulties.

      In this book you will find fact, flavor and formulae. Each is a key element in running a successful hedging strategy but must be integrated into the company’s management ethos. Therefore, this is a book to be read not just in the trading departments, but also in the boardroom, in the finance department and by shareholders in the enterprise.

      Whilst the media make much of derivatives scandals, corporate collapses and hedge-fund closures, there are thousands of success stories for every disaster.

      Tom James

      Head of Commodity Trading

      Liquid Capital Markets Ltd

      Liquid Capital Group

      The Liquid Capital Group was founded by brothers Chris and Gregg Siepman in 2000 and by 2007 the firm had already grown to more than 130 employees with offices in London, Sydney and Chicago. Liquid Capital ranks amongst the top largest global equity derivatives market-makers by volume on Eurex and other equity option markets. In July 2007 Liquid Capital expanded its business into energy and commodity derivatives trading and investment management.

      For more information on the group please visit: www.liquidcapital.com

      CHAPTER 1

      Risk Management in Energy Markets

      In most financial markets there are a fairly small number of fundamental price drivers which can be easily translated into pricing and risk-management models. In currency markets, for example, the commodity that has to be delivered is cash, a piece of paper which is easily stored, transferred and not sensitive to weather conditions.

      But energy markets are concerned with bulky, dangerous commodities that have to be transported over vast distances, often through some of the most politically unstable regions of the world. This means that there are a large number of factors that can affect energy prices. A fairly short list of such factors might include the weather; the balance of supply and demand; political tensions; comments made by the leaders of certain countries; decisions taken by OPEC; analysts’ reports; shipping problems; and changes to tax and legal systems. All of these contribute to the high levels of volatility in energy markets, which often experience sudden price movements from one day to the next, or even from one minute to the next.

      THE RISK MATRIX

      One way of understanding how these factors combine to influence energy prices is to use the risk matrix shown in Figure 1.1. This illustrates how all the risks shown interrelate and affect one another, and makes clear that the relationships between them are never two-dimensional. It also makes the point that it is impossible to manage price risk effectively without reviewing all the other risks that an individual or a firm may face.

      FIGURE 1.1 The Risk Matrix

      c01_image001.jpg

      As the matrix shows, the key additional risks to be managed in an organization when using derivatives for trading or price-risk management purposes are credit risk, liquidity risk, cash-flow risk, basis risk, legal risk, tax risk and operational risk. All these risks will have a direct bearing on which derivatives are employed and the choice of trading partner. They will also affect decisions on where trading takes place (which is dependent on jurisdiction and tax risk) and how much is traded (which will depend on operational risks).

      FINANCIAL RISKS

      Price risk

      This is the risk of losing money as a result of price movements in the energy markets and is sometimes referred to as market risk. Typically, producers will lose money when prices fall, while users will find themselves out of pocket when prices increase.

      Credit risk

      Credit risk is the risk of financial losses arising when the counterparty to a contract defaults. It is often said that a hedge contract is only as reliable as the credit standing of the counterparty and credit-risk management has moved to the top of the priority list for the energy industry. The credit crunch felt in the U.S. energy sector in the aftermath of the Enron disaster has prompted energy traders to review credit policies and also to review effective methods to control and reduce credit risk wherever possible.

      Liquidity risk

      In the context of this book, this is the risk of losses caused by a derivatives market becoming illiquid. This happened during the Gulf War when there was so much volatility in the markets that many banks and oil traders would not give a bid or offer price. Companies who were exposed to those markets at the time were sometimes unable to close out their positions or could only do so at great cost to themselves.

      Cash-flow risk

      This is the risk that an organization will not be able to produce the cash to meet its derivatives obligations. In the late nineties, Korean Airlines found itself in this kind of situation and suffered heavy losses as a result. The company had been hedging against movements in the jet-fuel price by using derivatives which were denominated in dollars. When the Korean won suddenly fell in value against the dollar, the company found that the cost of the dollars needed to service its derivatives contracts had soared. The company lost out because it had not hedged against the risk of a negative movement in the currency differential between the won and the U.S. dollar.

      The perils of liquidity and cash-flow risk: Metallgessellschaft AG

      In 1993 the German conglomerate Metallgessellschaft AG announced that its Refining and Marketing Group (MGRM) had been responsible for huge losses of around US$1.5 billion, which it had incurred by writing oil futures contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). The great irony of the situation was that its position had been perfectly sound from an economic point of view. The company’s difficulties stemmed from the fact that it had ignored the perils of liquidity and cash-flow risk.

      In the early 1990s, MGRM agreed to sell 160 million barrels of oil at a fixed price at regular intervals over a 10-year period. At the time this kind of forward contract looked like a lucrative strategy: as long as the spot price for oil remained lower than the price that MGRM had fixed, the company was sure to make a profit. However, the company was vulnerable to a rising oil price, so it hedged this risk using futures contracts. Thus, if the oil price rose it would lose on its fixed-price forward contracts, but gain on its futures. If the price fell, it would gain on the forward contracts, but lose on the futures. This appeared to hedge MGRM’s price risk adequately, but unfortunately failed to take account of its liquidity and cash-flow risk.

      One of MGRM’s problems was the sheer size of the position it had taken. The 160 million barrels of oil that it had committed to sell was equivalent to Kuwait’s entire production over an 83-day period. It has been estimated that the number of futures contracts needed to hedge the position would have been around 55,000. NYMEX was known to be a large and liquid market, but its trade in contracts relevant to MGRM’s position averaged somewhere between 15,000 and 30,000 per day. There was thus a clear theoretical risk that MGRM could have problems liquidating its futures position. This risk created an imbalance in the market as many other players realized the size of MGRM’s position, which became in itself a factor in market pricing. Prices inevitably began to move against the company.

      This liquidity risk was compounded by the cash-flow risk which resulted from the way that MGRM’s hedge had been structured. As was noted earlier, when oil prices went down, the value of the company’s fixed-rate forward contracts rose and the value of the futures fell. The problem arose because although the forward contracts increased in value, they did not generate the cash flow which was needed to fund the regular margin calls that were due on the futures contracts. The structure of the hedge had succeeded in dealing with price risk over the life of the hedge but had failed to deal with cash-flow risk in the short term. This was probably the major factor in the staggering losses that the company suffered.

      BASIS RISK

      What is basis risk?

      Basis risk is the risk of loss due to an adverse move or the breakdown of expected differentials between two prices (usually different products). In the context of price-risk management, it describes the risk that the value of a hedge (using a derivative contract or structure) may not move up or down in sync with the value of the price exposure that is being managed.

      In the energy market, these market movements may be triggered by factors such as poor weather conditions, political developments, physical events or changes in regulation. These can lead to basis risk occurring in circumstances such as the following:

      Physical material in one location cannot be delivered to relieve a shortage in another location.

      A different quality of product cannot be substituted for an energy product in severe shortage. This often happens in the pipeline gas and power markets if there are any problems with transmission networks.

      There is not enough time to transport or produce an energy product to alleviate a shortage in the market.

      When conducting price-risk management, the ideal derivatives contract is one that has a zero risk or the lowest basis risk with the energy price from which protection is needed. The larger the basis risk, the less useful the derivative is for risk-management purposes.

      The attraction of over-the-counter (OTC) swaps and options is that basis risk can at times be zero, as OTC contracts can often price against the same price reference as the physical oil. However, futures contracts (sometimes referred to as on-exchange derivatives) traded on exchanges such as the Intercontinental Exchange, the New York Mercantile Exchange and the Tokyo Commodity Exchange all have their pricing references and terms fixed in the exchange’s regulations. This means that if their pricing reference does not match the underlying physical exposure, the basis risk must either be accepted or an OTC alternative needs to be sought. (There will be more on the differences, and respective advantages and disadvantages of on-exchange and OTC contracts in later chapters.)

      Components of basis risk

      Locational Basis

      FIGURE 1.2 Locational basis

      c01_image002.jpg

      Time Basis

      FIGURE 1.3 Time basis

      c01_image002.jpg

      Brent Crude futures and the Cushing Cushion

      The success of the Brent Crude oil futures contract is an interesting example of the importance of basis risk in the energy markets. This contract was first traded on London’s International Petroleum Exchange (IPE) in 1983, two years after the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures contract had been launched on the NYMEX. On the surface, both contracts do similar jobs, for hedging purposes, at least. So, over the years, why have international companies chosen to hedge with the IPE Brent futures contract rather than its betterestablished and more liquid American rival?

      The answer is a particular kind of basis risk, known in the industry as the Cushing Cushion (after the Cushing refinery in Oklahoma, the destination of several of the major oil pipelines in the southeast United States). The Cushing Cushion enables the WTI’s crude price in the U.S. to act totally independently of international market prices. This can be because pipeline bottlenecks at the Gulf coast are preventing additional foreign crude from reaching the midcontinent refineries or it can be because bad weather has closed the Louisiana Offshore Offloading Point (LOOP), halting the offloading of foreign crude from carriers into the pipeline system.

      In situations like these, the first reaction of speculators and refineries which depend on oil in the pipeline system is to buy WTI NYMEX Futures. Sometimes WTI premiums of US$3 a barrel over the IPE Brent price have resulted from LOOP problems, pipeline problems or both.

      So for anyone hedging international crudes such as West African, Brent, Mid East crude oils, Dubai or Tapis, the WTI NYMEX contract carries a significant basis risk. The IPE* Brent future, on the other hand, is exempt from this basis risk, which is almost certainly one of the keys to its success.

      *The IPE is now known as The ICE, www.theice.com

      Mixed basis risk

      Mixed basis risk occurs when an underlying position is hedged with more than one type of mismatch between the energy that is the subject of the price-risk management and the pricing index reference of the derivatives instrument that is being used. For example, if a January gasoil (heating oil) cargo is hedged with a March jet kerosene swap, it would leave both time and product basis exposures.

      LEGAL, OPERATIONAL AND TAX RISKS

      Legal risk

      This is the risk that derivatives contracts may be not be enforceable in certain circumstances. The most common concerns in this area surround clauses on netting of settlements, netting of trade, bankruptcy and the concern that the liquidation of contracts may be unenforceable. Opinions on many jurisdictions around the world can be obtained from the International Swaps Dealers Association (ISDA).

      Operational risk

      The risk that may occur through the errors or omissions in the processing and settlement of derivatives is known as operational risk. Internal controls alongside an appropriate back-office system (whether manual or computerized) should be employed to reduce this risk.

      Tax risk

      Tax risk can occur when there are changes to taxation regulations that affect either the derivatives market directly or the physical underlying energy market in some way. This can create additional costs to the trade. For derivatives contracts, the issue of imposed withholding taxes on any settlement payments is normally an issue covered by ISDA contracts.

      SUMMARY

      When designing an energy-price risk management or trading program, it is essential to be aware of all the risks that are involved in the energy market and the ways in which they interrelate. But it is important to remember that any hedging strategy which focuses narrowly on any one of the risks outlined in this chapter and ignores the others may be worse than having no hedging strategy at all.

      CHAPTER 2

      The Energy Derivatives Markets

      ON EXCHANGE AND OFF EXCHANGE

      Derivatives normally make the headlines for all the wrong reasons. In the public mind, they are often associated with the activities of greedy speculators or with highly publicized corporate financial disasters. This is ironic because derivatives are essentially instruments to manage and reduce risk. They were created to provide opportunities to minimize price risk and to lock in profits, while reducing balancesheet volatility and the potential for losses. It is true that there have been cases in which the use of derivatives has led to spectacular losses but this has normally been the result of their mistaken misuse or outright abuse by incompetent or ruthless individuals. Certainly, in the normal course of business life, derivatives are a prudent and, indeed, indispensable tool of price-risk management.

      Derivatives are financial contracts that derive their price or value from an underlying price or asset reference. They can be divided into three main types: futures contracts, swaps contracts and options.

      Energy futures contracts are legally binding standardized agreements on a regulated futures exchange to make or take delivery of a specified energy product (oil, gas, power), at a fixed date in the future, and at a price agreed when the deal is executed.

      Energy swaps represent an obligation between two parties to exchange — or swap — cash flows, one of which is a fixed price normally agreed at execution; the other is based on the average of a floating price index during the contract period. No physical delivery of the underlying energy takes place; there is only money settlement.

      Options are agreements between two parties that give the buyer of the option the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell at a specified price on or before a specific future date. They can apply to a specific futures contract (a futures option) or a specific cash flow (if an OTC Option) or they can be used to buy or sell a specific swap contract (if an OTC swaption). When the option is exercised, the seller of the option (also known as the writer) must deliver or take delivery of the underlying asset or contract at the specified price (unlike a swap in which there is no obligation). The specified price is known as the strike price, which is the price level at which the option becomes profitable independent of the seller or buyer.

      Derivatives are often referred to as off-balance-sheet items. This term is used because, in the past, there was no need for derivatives to appear on a company’s balance sheet (now this is only the case when hedging using derivatives). Derivatives weren’t required to appear on the balance sheet because a derivatives contract requires no transfer of the principal value of the contract; in other words, there is no commitment to lend money or take money. For example, when a US$1 million swap is traded, the principal value is not exchanged. Instead, an exchange is made of the cash flow of the difference between the agreed fixed price on the derivative instrument and the forward floating-price reference that the derivative is priced out against.

      ON-EXCHANGE AND OVER-THE-COUNTER

      In the energy industry, derivatives can be bought and sold in two main ways: on-exchange and over-the-counter (OTC). On-exchange refers to the futures markets which are found on regulated financial exchanges such as the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) and London’s International Petroleum Exchange (ICE). The OTC market is specific to the non-standard swaps and OTC options. These are usually traded directly between two companies (principals, players) in the energy markets.

      Although the futures markets are important to the energy industry, they rely much more heavily on OTC derivatives. This is because OTC derivatives are customized transactions, whereas their on-exchange counterpart, the futures contract, is a standard contract. In theory, each deal on the OTC market is unique, so it is important to be alert to contract terms, pricing mechanisms and price reference when using OTC derivatives. Some companies find that the measurement and control of risks can be more difficult with an OTC contract because of the lack of price and liquidity transparency in the OTC market (unlike regulated futures exchanges which publish public real-time price data) and this can create the possibility of an unexpected loss. Sometimes there are additional legal, credit and operational risks with OTC derivatives compared to on-exchange futures contracts. However, the OTC market remains a popular option for price-risk management purposes. Many companies find that there are benefits in the flexibility of an OTC derivative because it can be valued against the same price reference as the energy which is being produced or consumed.

      FUTURES

      A brief history of the futures markets

      Oil futures contracts have been traded on financial exchanges since the 1970s, although ad-hoc negotiated physical-supply contracts have been around since oil was drilled in the United States in the 1850s. The first formalized regulated futures exchange for oil was NYMEX, which started contracts on heating oil in 1977 (re-launched as the current contract in 1979) and followed by West-Texas-Intermediate contract (WTI crude). On the other side of the Atlantic, the International Petroleum Exchange (ICE) of London was launched in 1981 and now boasts, in the Brent Crude Oil Futures contract, the leading international benchmark for the pricing of physical crude markets around the world; approximately 70% of the world’s crude oil markets price in some way against Brent Crude Oil. Both NYMEX and ICE also operate futures markets for natural gas and electricity/power.

      In the Far East, SIMEX (now merged into SGX in Singapore) ran a popular fuel-oil futures contract in Singapore until the early 1990s, when it was overtaken in popularity by the OTC derivatives market and Asia is now practically dependent on OTC derivatives for risk-management purposes in energy markets. However, the Dubai Mercantile Exchange (DME) Oman Crude Futures contract launched on 1 June 2007 has been attracting both interest and trading volume and this could become a useful on-exchange futures contract tool for Middle East crude hedging, particularly since Asia is heavily dependent on Middle East crude imports for oil-refinery operation (see Chapter 4).

      FUTURES VS. OTC

      At one time it was easy to distinguish the futures market from the OTC market and to establish their relative advantages. When a risk manager or trader used futures contracts they knew that the contract would be traded on an exchange, that they would have an account with their futures broker and that they were operating in a highly regulated market. They could also see the price of the contract on a screen and could be sure that the security of the contract and its performance would be guaranteed by the clearing house of the exchange. This in turn was guaranteed by margins (good-faith payments by everyone with a futures position on that particular exchange) together with the funding the exchange raised itself and the funds contributed by its clearing broker members.

      Margins on a futures exchange can be split into two types: initial and variation. Initial margin is the good-faith deposit that is placed with the clearing house or that a broker finances (at a cost) when a trade is opened. Variation margin is the daily revaluation of a portfolio with the clearing house. If the valuation is negative, you or your broker (if you have a credit line) will have to place a margin to cover that negative variation margin. If the next day the portfolio has a positive variation margin (that is, it is showing an unrealized profit), because the position has not yet been traded or closed out, some of that margin will be returned.

      However, when OTC contracts are used there is usually credit risk of the other company in the transaction to consider, as well as a liquidity risk and a lack of price transparency because there is no screen to display a real-time price. The basic workings of a futures market are illustrated in Figure 2.1.

      FIGURE 2.1 Basic futures trade transaction flow

      c02_image001.jpg

      The convergence of OTC and futures

      The clear distinction between the OTC energy market and the futures markets is now disappearing as the two markets converge. Clearing houses around the world have started to accept OTC trades into their guarantee umbrella. This means that after executing bilateral OTC trades with one another, both counterparties can agree to givein their OTC deal to a clearing house. This process basically makes the clearing house the counterparty to the OTC deal, so that the two OTC counterparties can benefit from the higher credit quality of the clearing house as well as getting other benefits such as more netting opportunities on settlement and offsetting of positions.

      The usual market approach is for two OTC counterparties to trade an OTC derivative contract with one another directly and to take on one another’s credit risk, as illustrated in Figure 2.2.

      FIGURE 2.2 Direct OTC dealing

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      In the new convergence environment, the situation is illustrated in Figure 2.3.

      FIGURE 2.3 The role of the clearing house

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      Although market-share penetration has been slow in the oil sector, we have seen the newer power and gas markets embracing electronic trading platforms in a big way. This has brought about greater price transparency as users can view and trade prices on screen as in futures markets.

      Settlement on expiry

      Energy futures contracts all entail physical and cash delivery on expiry (apart from ICE Brent crude futures in London). So if a seller holds the futures contract to expiry, he will have to deliver the underlying physical energy (oil, gas, power); and if a buyer holds the contract to expiry, he will have to take delivery of the underlying physical energy. However, actual delivery via futures markets like the NYMEX or ICE is very small, normally less than 2% of the total open interest (the total amount of outstanding contracts in the market). The majority of trades on these markets are for hedging and/or speculative purposes, with consumers or producers of energy preferring to make delivery via the normal physical markets rather than through the futures markets.

      SWAPS AND OPTIONS

      Settlement on expiry

      Swaps are contracts which, unlike futures, never go to physical delivery. They are by their very legal structure purely financially based contracts, which allow companies to benefit from the price/value movement of the underlying asset from which the swaps price is derived. It is called a swap because the two counterparties to the deal, the buyer and the seller, exchange an agreed fixed price on a particular day for the unknown floating price in the future. When traders are negotiating an OTC deal they focus on the fixed price; the floating-price reference (see Chapter 3); the pricing period (for example, one month, quarterly, calendar year); the start, or effective, date; the end, or

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