Would-be Speaker McCarthy can learn from predecessors' struggles for the big gavel

The swearing in of a new Congress is now just a month away. Most of the top leadership positions for both parties in both chambers have been decided.

But one has not.

The Speaker of the House is the most powerful person on Capitol Hill and stands next after the vice president in the line of presidential succession.

Kevin McCarthy of California is the Republican nominee for the job in the new, 118^th Congress. But he first must win a majority of the whole House (or at least of those present and voting for a candidate) on January 3^rd.

Most observers agree that McCarthy does yet not have the 218 votes it would appear he needs. Might he fall short? Can he win with fewer than 218? And how long can he run the House if he barely wins the right to do so?

We can look to history for help on all these questions. At a glance, the precedents suggest McCarthy will find a way to win on January 3. But at the same time, history suggests his