General Election Prediction

Current Prediction: Labour short 15 of majority

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Seats	Pred Votes	Low Seats	Pred Seats	High Seats
CON	24.4%	121	26.9%	94	207	324
LAB	34.7%	412	27.6%	142	311	384
LIB	12.6%	72	12.0%	38	68	84
Reform	14.7%	5	19.5%	12	12	157
Green	6.9%	4	8.2%	3	4	16
SNP	2.6%	9	2.6%	7	16	40
PlaidC	0.7%	4	0.7%	2	3	6
Other	3.5%	5	2.4%	1	11	13
SF		7			7
DUP		5			5
SDLP		2			2
NI Other		2			2
UUP		1			1
Alliance		1			1

Prediction based on opinion polls from 11 Nov 2024 to 27 Nov 2024, sampling 11,339 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Lab minority

44%

Labour majority

22%

No overall control

14%

Con minority

12%

Conservative majority

Reform minority

Probability of being the largest party

Labour

71%

Conservative

27%

Reform

The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. Minority government probabilities assume possible alliances between the Conservative and Reform parties, and between Labour, Liberal Democrats, SNP and Plaid Cymru.

In the headline prediction table, the columns 'Low Seats' and 'High Seats' give the 90 per cent confidence interval for the number of seats won.

Commentary for December 2024

Posted 1 December 2024

Labour's poll lead over the Conservatives has dwindled down to one percent, according to the recent polls. That has reduced so much that Labour would no longer have a majority in the House of Commons if there were an imminent election. Reform are the main gainers in terms of votes, but the Conservatives would do better in terms of seats.