Ankara on tenterhooks over Trump’s cabinet announcements
US president-elect Donald Trump’s recent announcements about who he plans to appoint to key posts in his administration when he takes office in January have caused jitters in Ankara and dashed hopes that Turkish interests would be well served by his return to the White House.
The hope now is that Trump’s ministers and other top officials in the areas of foreign policy and security will soften their stance on Ankara once in office, for, as Ragip Soylu, the Turkey bureau chief for Middle East Eye, notes in comments to Kathimerini, “Heavy is the head that wears the crown.”
Soylu believes that ties will depend on the personal relationship between Trump and Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and if this is restored, Turkish-US relations will also improve. “It is expected that, in this context, even individuals who have taken a hard line against Turkey will adapt. Tulsi Gabbard [Trump’s pick for head of intelligence services], for example, had made some strong statements against Erdogan but had also been critical of Trump at that same time. This has now changed. The prevailing view, therefore, is that the things that were said in the past will not carry on,” he adds.
The pro-Israel stance of Trump’s top picks in foreign policy and security matters is the deeper cause of concern in Ankara, according to the Turkish analyst. “These people are fanatically pro-Israel,” says Soyul. “We must ask what kind of regional tension may be triggered by a cabinet that is so pro-war, almost ignores the existence of Palestine and supports the idea of Iran’s military collapse. There are serious concerns about the potential tensions in the region.”
For Nevsin Mengu, a Turkish journalist at the NOW TV network, Ankara may have to rethink its policy on the Middle East following Trump’s election. “Turkey will have to be careful at this stage. The expectation is that Trump will pursue an isolationist policy, which means that the US may withdraw from northern Syria and that the support to the YPG given under the Biden administration will also be withdrawn,” says Mengu, referring to Syrian Kurdish fighters.
“Erdogan is also satisfied that he can pick up the phone and call the White House, so Ankara will be watching Trump’s moves come January very closely. We musn’t forget that the US president-elect prefers transactional relationships. And this transaction cannot be one-sided. As Trump listens to Turkey, he will also be wondering what Turkey will give him in return. Therefore, the big question should be: ‘What will Trump want from Erdogan in the next term?’”
Furkan Kaya, an associate professor in international relations at Yeditepe University in Istanbul, believes it is important that the two leaders are able to communicate and argues that their personal chemistry can go a long way toward improving relations between the two countries. He also believes that it may lead to some progress on the issue of the F-35 and F-16 fighter jets, where, despite assurances from the Biden administration, there has been no breakthrough. Nevertheless, says Kaya, “it is very likely that the F-35 card will continue to be played during Trump’s tenure.”
