VAN method

The VAN method – named after P. Varotsos, K. Alexopoulos and K. Nomicos, authors of the 1981 papers describing it – measures suspected "seismic electric signals" (SES), by which Varotsos and several colleagues claim to have successfully predicted earthquakes in Greece. Both the method itself and the manner by which successful predictions are claimed have been severely criticized; the International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection declared: "subsequent testing has failed to validate the optimistic SES prediction capability claimed by the authors". The VAN method was revised in 2001, and this new method has been independently reproduced. It awaits further independent verification.

Description of the VAN method

Prediction of earthquakes with this method is based on the detection, recording and evaluation of seismic electric signals or SES. These electrical signals have a fundamental frequency component of 1 Hz or less and an amplitude proportional to the magnitude of the earthquake. According to VAN proponents, SES are emitted by rocks under stresses caused by plate-tectonic forces. There are three types of reported electric signal: