Probability

Probability is the measure of the likelihood that an event will occur. Probability is quantified as a number between 0 and 1 (where 0 indicates impossibility and 1 indicates certainty). The higher the probability of an event, the more certain we are that the event will occur. A simple example is the tossing of a fair (unbiased) coin. Since the coin is unbiased, the two outcomes ("head" and "tail") are equally probable; the probability of "head" equals the probability of "tail." Since no other outcome is possible, the probability is 1/2 (or 50%) of either "head" or "tail". In other words, the probability of "head" is 1 out of 2 outcomes and the probability of "tail" is also, 1 out of 2 outcomes.

These concepts have been given an axiomatic mathematical formalization in probability theory (see probability axioms), which is used widely in such areas of study as mathematics, statistics, finance, gambling, science (in particular physics), artificial intelligence/machine learning, computer science, game theory, and philosophy to, for example, draw inferences about the expected frequency of events. Probability theory is also used to describe the underlying mechanics and regularities of complex systems.

Law & Order: Criminal Intent (season 2)

The second season of Law & Order: Criminal Intent premiered September 29, 2002 and ended May 18, 2003 on NBC.

Production

Law & Order: Criminal Intent was renewed a second season in May 2002 and production began in Summer 2002. Show runner/executive producer René Balcer became head writer this season, writing every episode of the season.

Peter Jankowski was promoted to executive producer this season; last season Jankowski was a co-executive producer. Co-executive producers this season were Fred Berner, Arthur W. Forney, and Theresa Rebeck with John L. Roman and Michael Kewley serving as producers. Supervising producers were Roz Weinman and Marlane Gomard Meyer. Original Law & Order writer and co-executive producer at the time, Michael S. Chernuchin was consulting producer and Tim DeLuca as associate producer. Mary Rae Thewlis became co-producer starting with the 6th episode, "Malignant". Warren Leight, who later became co-executive producer and then show runner/executive producer, began as a producer with the 10th episode, "Con-Text". Balcer hired Leight from a recommendation by co-executive producer, Theresa Rebeck.

Catholic probabilism

In Catholic moral theology, probabilism provides a way of answering the question about what to do when one does not know what to do. Probabilism proposes that one can follow an authoritative opinion regarding whether an act may be performed morally, even though the opposite opinion is more probable. It was first formulated in 1577 by Bartholomew Medina, OP, who taught at Salamanca.

Formulation and opposed views

Probabilism is one way of approaching difficult matters of conscience. In such cases, according to probabilism, one may safely follow a doctrine approved by a recognized Doctor of the Church, even if the opposite opinion is more probable as judged by other considerations, such as scientific considerations or many other recognized authoritative opinions.

A more radical view, "minus probabilissimus", holds that an action is permissible if a single opinion allowing that action is available, even if the overwhelming weight of opinion proscribes it. This view was advanced by the Spanish theologian Bartolomé de Medina (1527–1581) and defended by many Jesuits such as Luis Molina (1528–1581). It was heavily criticised by Blaise Pascal in his Provincial Letters as leading to moral laxity.