Latest News for: fivethirtyeight

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Election Forecasts Try to Go Beyond the Polls. Are They Helping?

New York Times 23 Nov 2024
The forecasts, like those from Decision Desk HQ, Nate Silver and 538, are now ubiquitous, but their accuracy is hard to measure ... .
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Allan Lichtman takes shot at Nate Silver: 'I admit that I was wrong'

The Hill 06 Nov 2024
Silver had previously written his gut sense was that Trump would win. Lichtman has taken shots at the FiveThirtyEight founder in the past, and the pair feuded online in September when Silver argued that Lichtman's method in fact predicted a Trump win.
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Why the Right Thinks Trump Is Running Away With the Race

New York Times 31 Oct 2024
Skewed polls and anonymous betting markets are building up Republicans’ expectations. Donald Trump could use that to challenge the result ... .
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Trump leads key swing state while Biden a drag on Harris

Asiatimes 31 Oct 2024
The FiveThirtyEight forecast gives Trump a 51% win probability ... Joe Biden remains unpopular with a net -16.5 approval in the FiveThirtyEight national aggregate, with 55.8% disapproving and 39.3% approving.
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Harris’s Coattails in New Hampshire May Be Helping Democrat in Governor’s Race

New York Times 30 Oct 2024
Distrust of Kelly Ayotte, the Republican candidate, on abortion and strong support for Kamala Harris in the state may be helping keep the race close despite Ms. Ayotte’s advantages ... .
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With the clock winding down, here's why polls suggest Trump has the edge

The Hill 28 Oct 2024
Rather, it suggests real movement toward him over the last several weeks ... In the most pivotal state, Pennsylvania, Trump has taken the lead in FiveThirtyEight’s aggregate of the last week’s polls, which had Harris up just a few weeks ago ... Douglas E.
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FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver predicts who will be president but says not to trust his prediction

Boing Boing 23 Oct 2024
Famed statistician Nate Silver—founder of polling analysis site FiveThirtyEight—writes that ...
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Ignore the Polls

New York Times 13 Oct 2024
They can’t tell you what you want to know ... .
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Harris is up but Trump might be stronger behind the polls

The Hill 09 Sep 2024
As of Labor Day, national polling averages aggregated by both FiveThirtyEight (Harris +3) and RealClearPolitics (Harris +2) show the race to be effectively tied ... There are legitimate reasons to think the former president can do it again ... Douglas E.
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Presidential coattails can also have negative effects

The Hill 05 Sep 2024
... there’s coattails is laughable.” Nate Silver’s respected polling organization, FiveThirtyEight, projected that Clinton had a 71.4 percent chance of winning compared to Trump’s 28.6 percent chance.
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FiveThirtyEight founder on election odds: It's a high-stakes moment

CNBC 26 Aug 2024
Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight founder, joins 'Money Movers' to discuss the upcoming 2024 presidential election, election odds, risk-taking this election, and more ... .
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Why Kamala Harris may get a big convention polling ‘bounce’

Raw Story 19 Aug 2024
More recent national convention surveys, aggregated by FiveThirtyEight, come from multiple polling firms ... My analysis of FiveThirtyEight’s ... (Both the Gallup and FiveThirtyEight datasets confirm this.).
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The 2024 election is anybody's race at this point, says FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver

CNBC 14 Aug 2024
Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight founder and ‘On The Edge. The Art of Risking Everything’ author, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the state of the 2024 election, the art of risk-taking, difference between 'the river' and 'the village', and more ... .
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Nate Silver says FiveThirtyEight suspended its forecasts to help Kamala Harris

New York Post 06 Aug 2024
Election savant Nate Silver blasted FiveThirtyEight for suspending its presidential forecasts — offering up a “theory” that the website he founded is waiting for Vice President Kamala Harris’ polling numbers to improve.
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Nate Silver dubs presidential race a ‘toss-up’

The Hill 02 Aug 2024
As of Thursday, Silver argued, Harris and former President Trump each have at least a 40 percent chance of winning the election ... The FiveThirtyEight founder said Harris is performing well in swing states but it’s still up in the air ... ....

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