After preseason AP poll ranking, James Franklin should be on hot seat if Penn State misses 12-team CFP

The preseason AP Top 25 was released on Monday and James Franklin’s Penn State Nittany Lions checked in at No. 8, one spot ahead of reigning national champion Michigan and only behind No. 2 Ohio State and No. 3 Oregon in the Big Ten. Penn State is up five spots from where it finished last season after a 38-25 Peach Bowl loss to now No. 6 Ole Miss. 

With Drew Allar back and a revamped offense under Andy Kotelnicki, the voters are likely predicting an uptick on that side of the ball for Penn State to justify the jump the Nittany Lions made throughout the offseason. That, and more of the same from a defense that ranked No. 2 in the country last season, now under Tom Allen. 

Now, with eight additional participants in the CFP, the expectations are clear for every team starting the season within the top 11, along with Boise State, the non-Power Four team receiving the most in this offseason exercise, its playoff-or-bust. That’s especially the case for Franklin, who since taking over in 2014, has had six teams finish the year within the CFP top 12 and yet never cracked the top four. 

Franklin is under contract until 2031 with an extension he signed in 2021 that makes him the 12th-highest-paid head coach in the country, further crystalizing the expectation that his Nittany Lions are one of the 12 teams playing for a national championship in December and January. 

Beyond that, Penn State has had the good fortune of avoiding both Michigan and Oregon on the schedule this year. So, while the Nittany Lions and the fanbase would love to see Franklin beat Ohio State for the first time since 2016, that’s no longer a prerequisite for a seat at the big kid’s table come the final week of the season. 

If Penn State simply takes care of its business against the rest of the schedule, one that only includes two teams who are in the preseason top 25, the Buckeyes and one of the Big Ten’s newest additions, USC, then it will be in the CFP. 

The bar has been significantly lowered, so if Franklin still can’t clear it, and if there isn’t an obvious explanation for the failure like an injury to Allar, then it will be time for Penn State to truly consider a change at the top of the football program. There is a large portion of the fanbase already calling for it, and with a disappointing 2024, their claims will be increasingly difficult to rebut, and I’m not sure even Franklin’s most staunch supporters will want to.