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Davis Cup finals prediction: Italy to spoil Nadal’s farewell
Davis Cup betting tips
Italy to win the Davis Cup - 7/4 BetVictor
Rafael Nadal has dominated the build-up to the Davis Cup finals, which get underway on Tuesday, and it’s no surprise as the Spaniard will retire after this tournament. The big question is, will there be a fairytale ending to what has been an unbelievable career on home soil?
It seems only fitting that Nadal, who has won 22 Grand Slams during his illustrious career, will bow out in his home country, alongside the French Open and Wimbledon champion Carlos Alcaraz.
Roberto Bautista Agut, Pedro Martinez and Marcel Granollers complete the Spain team, but it is Nadal, closely followed by Alcaraz, who the Malaga crowd will be hoping to see.
There are plenty of other countries and players who will be hoping they can spoil the party and get their hands on the Davis Cup trophy on Sunday, not least Italy led by world number one and World Tour Finals winner Jannik Sinner.
Also in action in Malaga are the USA, Argentina, Canada, Australia, Germany and the Netherlands, with the latter up first against the hosts in Tuesday’s opening quarter-final (4pm, BBC iPlayer).
Betting sites don’t foresee Spain having any issues overcoming a Dutch side headed by world number 40 Tallon Griekspoor, with the winner of that tie facing either Germany or Canada in Friday’s semi-final.
Nadal has had a difficult year, largely dominated by injury and he has not played since July, when he was beaten 6-1 6-4 by Novak Djokovic at the Paris Olympics at his home away from home Roland Garros.
How fit he is remains to be seen but you can guarantee the 38-year-old will give everything he has got for his teammates and country for a Spain team that has the talent to go deep into the tournament - as long as Alcaraz is also fully fit.
The current world number three struggled with illness at last week’s World Tour Finals and resorted to wearing nose tape to help with his breathing.
He was beaten by Caspar Ruud and Zverev, as he failed to make it out of the group stages, but it means he has had a bit more time to recover.
At least Alcaraz won’t have to face Zverev again this week. The world number two opted to miss the finals and take an extended break ahead of the 2025 season. This will be a huge blow for the German team whose highest-ranked player is now Jan-Lennard Struff, who is 43 in the world.
Germany’s odds for the title on betting apps have drifted as a result and Spain are the heavy favourites to emerge from that half of the draw.
Spain, who have won the Davis Cup four times with Nadal in the team during his career, are 9/4 shots on tennis betting sites. That puts them just behind 7/4 favourites Italy and ahead of 5/1 hopefuls the USA in the outright market.
While most tennis fans will be routing for a fairytale ending for Nadal, victory depends very much on the strength in depth of the team. We expect them to have enough to reach the final with Bautista Agut and Martinez both ranked in the top 50, while Granollers is a very good doubles specialist with a world ranking of fourth.
Their main threat comes from Italy who, along with Sinner, have selected a squad featuring world number 17 Lorenzo Musetti, number 35 Matteo Berrettini and two double specialists in Andrea Vavassori and Simone Bolelli, who are ranked nine and 11 in the world.
Italy are the defending champions having beaten Australia 2-0 in last year’s final and Sinner, who is playing at such a high level right now, often brings his A-game to the Davis Cup, boasting a record of 9-1 in singles matches.
He could prove the catalyst that powers the Italians to only their third Davis Cup title, but the surrounding talent has a role to play and Italy are easier to trust than a Spain side that has doubts over its top two singles players.
Davis Cup prediction: Italy to win the Davis Cup - 7/4 BetVictor
Davis Cup free bets
Betfred are running their tennis free bet club this week, offering punters up to £10 in free bets for wagering on the Davis Cup.
To qualify, bettors must place an in-play bet at odds of 1/2 or greater on three different tennis matches. In return, Betfred will give bettors their average stake back in free bets, up to a maximum value of £10.
There’s no Betfred promo code required for this offer. Any free bets will be credited within 24 hours of qualifying bets being settled and will expire after 48 hours.
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