Stathis Mokkas

As of today Wednesday 9th October, the UK energy market remains volatile, with key developments shaping the landscape across gas, power, oil, and carbon markets. Gas prices have softened, with the UK NBP Day-Ahead (DA) price settling at 94.35 p/therm, reflecting a decrease from yesterday's levels. The market has reacted to forecasts of milder temperatures expected next week, easing some pressure on demand, particularly as LNG arrivals in Europe continue at a steady pace. Norway's gas exports remained stable at 311.2mcm/day, despite a five-day extension to maintenance at the Kristin gas field, now set to resume operations on October 14. Looking at UK gas demand, the system has opened 19mcm/day long this morning. Lower-than-average temperatures, around three degrees below seasonal norms, have led to a rise in UK LDZ demand. Gas-for-power demand is also up as wind speeds have dipped, reducing renewable generation over the next five days. However, wind levels are expected to rebound after this period. On the LNG front, send-out nominations remain stable at 12mcm/day, with three cargoes expected to arrive in the UK before October 27, alongside a number of deliveries scheduled for Northwest Europe. In the oil market, Brent crude prices edged higher to $77.18/bbl, bolstered by ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and lingering concerns over the Chinese economy. Despite this, the price reflects a sharp $3.75 drop from the previous day, suggesting uncertainty continues to cloud the market outlook. UK power prices have followed a similar downward trend. The Day-Ahead Baseload price has fallen to £81.19/MWh, down from £89.09/MWh the previous day. Cooler temperatures have driven up heating demand, but lower wind generation is expected to remain a factor in driving up gas-for-power demand in the coming days. Market sentiment indicates that the decline in power prices could be temporary as forecasts suggest wind generation will pick up next week, stabilising the mix of energy supply. Carbon prices, however, have eased, with the EUA Dec 24 trading at €60.29/tonne. The UK ETS also saw a slight uptick to £36.01/tonne, reflecting some of the broader market uncertainties linked to energy prices and upcoming weather forecasts. Storage levels across Europe remain high at 94.61%, keeping a lid on any further risk premium being priced into gas markets, despite the approaching winter season. UK individual gas storage sites are similarly well-stocked, providing some reassurance to market participants. The interplay of LNG arrivals, storage capacity, and weather-driven demand will continue to influence market prices across the board. With colder weather expected, gas demand is set to stay elevated, but a recovery in renewable output may ease the pressure. Keep an eye on developments in the geopolitical landscape and economic data from China, both of which will likely weigh on market sentiment and energy prices moving forward.

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Today’s UK energy market opened with a balanced outlook in the gas sector, yet influences from lower wind output and ongoing nuclear outages are making waves across the power market. As of October 29th, UK gas prices at the National Balancing Point (NBP) settled at 106.70 p/therm, holding steady amid stable domestic production and consistent Norwegian flows. Production from the Norwegian Continental Shelf is expected to rise over the next few days as the final stages of maintenance wrap up, ensuring that gas supplies remain robust despite lower-than-average wind speeds forecasted for the coming weeks. Power prices for the Day-Ahead UK base shot up to £107.89/MWh, driven in part by a reduction in wind generation and maintenance outages impacting nuclear capacity and interconnectors. These outages have placed extra reliance on gas-fired power generation to meet demand. Notably, Torness 1 is scheduled for a return on November 3rd, while additional nuclear units offline for planned and unplanned maintenance are expected back in late November and early December, which should alleviate some pressure on power generation. Brent crude oil prices continue to reflect the subdued risk outlook in the Middle East, settling today at $71.42/bbl. This retreat, down from last week, is partially due to moderated geopolitical tensions and a lack of targeted energy infrastructure strikes. Coal prices have also softened, with ARA CIF for Calendar Year 2025 now at $124.46/tonne, tracking lower alongside a broad dip in oil. Carbon markets remain elevated with EUA Dec 2024 prices at €66.40/tonne. In the currency market, the pound showed minimal movement against both the euro and the dollar, standing at 1.2006 GBP/EUR and 1.2971 GBP/USD. As we move toward winter, expect gas and power prices to remain sensitive to weather forecasts, especially with anticipated colder temperatures and low wind patterns that could drive demand for gas-fired generation. With further LNG cargoes scheduled for arrival, including three en route to the UK and additional volumes bound for Northwest Europe, supply security remains strong. However, power market participants will be watching closely as the return of key nuclear units could impact pricing dynamics and reduce gas-burn requirements for electricity. Today’s market activity highlights the critical role of inter-fuel dynamics as the UK navigates seasonal demand pressures and renewable variability, with global events continuing to subtly steer sentiment. Stay tuned for further updates as the week unfolds.

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On October 18th, 2024, the UK energy markets opened with tighter gas supplies and fluctuating power prices, reflecting a complex mix of operational challenges and evolving demand forecasts. The system started the day 7 mcm undersupplied, with Norwegian flows through the Langeled pipeline reduced by 4 mcm due to ongoing maintenance. Two offshore projects in the UK Continental Shelf are also impacting supply, though both are expected to conclude today. However, the Oseberg field’s outage, cutting 27 mcm/day, has been extended until tomorrow, and Gullfaks will remain offline until November 1st. Gas prices are moving with these constraints. The NBP Day-Ahead settled at 96.00 p/therm, slightly up from the previous session. Curve contracts were mixed, reflecting uncertainty around maintenance schedules and geopolitical tensions. Despite these disruptions, the UK is forecasted to receive one LNG cargo by month-end, while Belgium and France are set to take more significant volumes. In power markets, the UK Day-Ahead baseload price dipped to £86.58/MWh, down by £3.02 from the previous day. Peak power settled at £90.26/MWh, a noticeable drop from £96.70/MWh. Renewables are expected to support the grid with above-average wind speeds through October 26th, though forecasts suggest output may fall short of demand by around 2000 MWh/h towards the end of that period. Temperatures are expected to remain slightly above seasonal norms for the next week, providing some relief to heating demand before colder conditions return. Oil prices remain steady, with Brent at $74.45/bbl, while carbon permits hover around €62.98/tonne for EUA Dec-24 contracts. Overall, the market remains on edge, with winter risks looming and the geopolitical environment adding further complexity. Traders will closely monitor the completion of maintenance schedules and incoming LNG deliveries, both of which are critical to stabilising the market in the coming days.

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UK Energy Market Update – 19th August 2024 Gas Market: The UK gas market has opened today with the system 7 mcm/day short, driven by lower nominations from the Langeled pipeline, while UKCS production remains stable. Strong exports to the continent continue, incentivised by the NBP Day-Ahead discount to TTF. The NBP Day-Ahead price is up slightly, trading at 79.50 p/therm. On the curve, winter contracts remain firm, with continued focus on storage injections ahead of the winter season. Pan-European storage levels are strong, with a collective fill rate of 89.40%. Power Market: UK power prices are seeing mixed movements. The UK Day-Ahead Baseload is priced at £64.24/MWh, reflecting a slight firmness. However, renewable generation, particularly from wind, is expected to limit the need for gas-fired power this week, especially on Thursday, with forecasts showing up to 15,000 MWh/h of wind capacity. On the supply side, nuclear availability is impacted by planned outages at key sites, including Heysham and Torness, adding to the overall market tension. Oil & Coal: Brent crude is relatively stable, trading at $79.68/bbl, while ARA coal for Cal Y+1 remains elevated at $130.11/tonne, reflecting continued demand and supply-side constraints. Currency: The GBP/EUR exchange rate is currently at 1.1747, maintaining stability in the broader energy market context. Outlook: As we approach the end of August, the UK energy market remains focused on storage levels and the geopolitical risks that could impact supply. With cooling forecasts and robust wind generation expected, we might see some easing in power prices, but the gas market continues to be underpinned by storage and export dynamics.

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Daily UK #Energy Market #Update - August 22nd, 2024 The UK energy market is facing some notable shifts this week, driven by changes in temperature forecasts, wind generation, and ongoing gas maintenance in Europe. The latest forecast suggests that temperatures across the UK will be around two degrees above seasonal norms next week. This warmer weather could provide some support to short-term power prices as demand patterns shift. Wind generation is expected to take a hit next week, falling approximately 3GW below seasonal norms. This reduction in wind output may contribute to higher front-week power prices as the grid compensates with other energy sources. Renewable energy plays a crucial role in balancing the grid, so any dip in wind generation often has a direct impact on pricing. On the European front, the upcoming maintenance schedule for Norwegian gas infrastructure is expected to influence gas markets. The forecast suggests that outages could peak at over 375 million cubic meters per day. These disruptions in Norwegian gas flows may add upward pressure on European gas prices, particularly as the continent approaches the winter heating season. However, despite geopolitical concerns, European gas flows through key transit points, such as Sudzha, remain intact for now, with no immediate signs of disruption. In the UK power market, day-ahead prices saw a decline, closing at £29.46 per MWh, a notable drop of 12.66% from the previous session. Forward contracts for September 2024 also softened, settling at £77.20 per MWh, representing a 2.72% decrease. This trend of declining prices extends across other forward contracts, with a general softening seen in both winter 2024 and summer 2025 contracts. UK gas prices exhibited a similar downward trend. Day-ahead gas prices remained relatively stable at 83.89 pence per therm. However, forward contracts for October 2024 fell by 3.18%, settling at 91.78 pence per therm. This continued decline in forward prices reflects market expectations of easing supply concerns and potential demand adjustments in the coming months. In the carbon markets, the EU carbon market experienced a slight decline, with the front December contract down by 1.29%, trading at €72.14 per tonne. Meanwhile, the UK carbon market showed some resilience, with prices rising by 0.90% to £40.55 per tonne. These movements highlight the ongoing volatility in carbon pricing as both markets adjust to regulatory changes and evolving market dynamics. As we move into next week, several key factors will continue to shape the UK and European energy markets. Warmer temperatures, reduced wind generation, and maintenance schedules in Norway are all likely to have an impact on both power and gas prices. It will be important to monitor these developments closely, as they will influence short-term pricing and long-term market trends. Stay informed and keep an eye on how these factors evolve in the coming days.

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UK Energy Prices Pump as Supply Risks Loom: Gas, Power, and Renewables Face Winter Challenges - 30.09.24. Today’s UK energy market opened with modest gains in both gas and power prices. The NBP Day-Ahead gas price settled at 91.50 p/therm, reflecting a 1.70 p/therm increase from the previous session. This price movement is driven by concerns over supply constraints, with Norwegian production still facing challenges, particularly at Nybro and Kristin facilities. These issues, coupled with a lack of LNG regasification nominations, have tightened the UK system, which opened 12 mcm/day short this morning. Flows from Norway through Langeled are lower, and Vesterled is currently not exporting gas. The overall gas flow was measured at 290.5 mcm/day, the highest recorded exit nominations in over a month, yet the market remains wary as the risk of further supply disruptions continues, especially with winter approaching. In terms of storage, no withdrawals from medium-range storage (MRS) sites were observed, while Rough continues with steady injections. Warmer temperatures for early October are forecast, with a potential peak on October 6th, pushing temperatures nearly two degrees above seasonal norms. Windspeeds are predicted to stay above average early this week, offering a boost to renewable generation. However, a dip in wind generation is expected between October 2nd and 5th. The UK nuclear output remains below full capacity, and further reductions are expected, with output dropping to 4.0 GW by the weekend. Power prices saw similar upward momentum, with the Day-Ahead Base price settling at £76.80/MWh, a significant increase compared to Friday. Day-Ahead Peak prices were even more pronounced, rising to £86.01/MWh. Spot contracts saw the largest gains, driven by the weather forecast and ongoing concerns over gas supply. Looking ahead, power prices for Q125 continue to rise, with the market pricing in potential further supply squeezes as winter progresses. In the wider energy market, Brent crude oil for November delivery settled at $71.98 per barrel, ticking up by $0.38. Coal prices for delivery in 2025 also showed some movement, rising by $2.77 to $123.77/tonne, as global markets continue to balance supply and demand. As we head into October, market participants are preparing for the onset of colder weather and the increased demand that will follow. Supply risks from Norwegian fields and global LNG flows are being carefully monitored, while renewable generation, particularly wind, will play a critical role in offsetting these supply concerns. With temperatures expected to dip below average after October 8th, the balance of supply and demand in the UK energy market will likely tighten further. Traders and stakeholders will continue to watch geopolitical developments, weather forecasts, and the ongoing challenges in gas and power supply as we move towards the end of the year.

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Daily Energy Market Update - September 2nd, 2024 Today’s UK energy market saw significant movements, particularly in both gas and power prices. The NBP Gas Day-Ahead price experienced a notable increase of 2.65%, reaching 94.79 p/th. This upward trend extended to key contracts such as October 2024, which rose by 2.07% to 96.15 p/th. These price movements reflect the current market dynamics and underlying factors influencing supply and demand. In the power market, UK Base Day-Ahead power prices surged dramatically, with a sharp increase of 42.56%, bringing the price to £91.97/MWh. Even more striking was the rise in peak power prices, which climbed by 56.12% to £93.50/MWh. These significant jumps in power prices can be attributed to several critical factors impacting the market this week. One of the primary drivers is the forecasted shortfall in wind power generation. This week, wind output is expected to fall over 20% below seasonal norms. As wind plays a crucial role in the UK's energy mix, this reduction in generation capacity is putting upward pressure on prompt energy prices, as the market anticipates a tighter supply-demand balance. Adding to the bullish sentiment in the gas market is the ongoing industrial maintenance in Norway, which is set to have a considerable impact on gas flows. With a reduction of 40 million cubic meters per day in Norwegian gas flows, the market is reacting with higher prices as supply tightens. Despite these factors, temperatures in Britain for the week are expected to align with seasonal norms. While this will likely have a limited impact on gas demand, the market is more focused on the supply-side constraints and the reduced wind generation that are driving prices higher. Looking at the broader energy complex, we see TTF Gas Day-Ahead prices inching up by 0.89% to €39.15/MWh, while the Front Month price rose by 2.43% to €39.82/MWh. On the global front, Brent Crude prices declined by 2.46%, now trading at $76.93 per barrel. Meanwhile, in the carbon markets, both UK and EU carbon prices saw minor declines, with UK carbon closing at £43.31 per tonne, down 2.61%. In summary, today’s energy market activity is shaped by a combination of reduced wind generation, significant Norwegian gas maintenance, and stable temperature forecasts. These factors are collectively driving the sharp increases we’ve seen in UK power and gas prices. As we move further into the week, it will be crucial to monitor how these elements continue to influence the market. Stay tuned for more updates, and as always, feel free to reach out with any questions or for deeper insights into these trends.

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Today 16th October’s UK energy landscape reflects shifting dynamics across gas, power, and renewables, with mild temperatures and steady LNG inflows shaping the market. Gas prices on the NBP day-ahead market settled at 96.00 p/therm, slightly lower than the previous session, as the system opened this morning undersupplied by 22 mcm/day. While piped flows from Norway remained flat, UKCS production decreased to 102 mcm/day. LNG send-out from South Hook and Isle of Grain provided 14 mcm/day, with additional LNG cargoes expected in the coming weeks to support the UK’s supply. Power prices followed suit, with the day-ahead baseload settling at £67.88/MWh, a sharp decline from yesterday’s £87.12/MWh, reflecting higher wind generation and milder demand expectations. However, as wind forecasts predict output dropping below seasonal norms in the coming days, gas demand for power generation could increase, potentially influencing prices upward. On the supply side, nuclear availability remained steady despite several ongoing outages, including units at Heysham and Torness. Weather forecasts suggest today will be the warmest of the month so far, with temperatures expected to stay above seasonal norms until the end of October. This trend is contributing to softer demand for heating, easing pressure on both gas and electricity markets. Meanwhile, carbon prices also eased slightly, with EUA Dec 24 certificates trading at €65.09/tonne, and the UK ETS market at £39.04/tonne, reflecting reduced short-term emissions intensity. Currency movements saw GBP/EUR at 1.1997, while GBP/USD edged up to 1.3072. With three LNG cargoes set to arrive soon and strong Norwegian flows to the continent, market fundamentals appear stable, though fluctuations in wind generation may drive volatility in power prices in the days ahead.

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Today, the UK energy market showed mixed activity amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. Front-month UK Power rose by 2.27%, closing at £81.46, while front-month NBP Gas climbed 1.28% to 95.40p. Carbon markets were stable, with Dec24 EUA's flat at €71.87, and UKA's up 4.61% at £40.60. Brent crude also saw gains, finishing at $81.15, up 1.74%. Stay informed and prepare for potential market shifts as geopolitical factors continue to influence energy prices. #EnergyMarket #UKPower #NaturalGas #CarbonTrading #BrentCrude

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Today October 11th, 2024, the UK energy markets opened with a strong position, reflecting the ongoing shifts in both gas and power sectors. NBP day-ahead gas prices were up to 98.50p/therm, continuing the upward momentum seen from yesterday as colder-than-expected temperatures swept across Europe, leading to increased demand. The UK system opened long at 11mcm/day this morning due to revised down demand forecasts and higher flows from Norway through Langeled. Norwegian supply remains robust despite unplanned outages at Troll and Gullfaks, which are expected to resolve by early next week. LNG send-out remained steady at 12mcm/day, primarily from the South Hook terminal, with two LNG cargoes expected to arrive in the coming weeks. European storage levels are high, at 94.74%. UK day-ahead power prices surged to £87.67/MWh, driven by the rising gas prices and colder weather. Forward power contracts also saw gains, with November 2024 base contracts trading at £86.50/MWh, reflecting the tight supply outlook as temperatures are expected to remain below normal until early next week. EDF’s announcement that their output target for next year remains unchanged at 335-365TWh provides some stability to the market, although nuclear outages in the UK and Europe remain a concern. Notably, Sizewell B begins planned maintenance today, reducing its capacity by 490MW for the next 47 days. Brent crude oil prices rose to $79.40/bbl, fueled by a combination of geopolitical tensions and supply concerns. In parallel, carbon prices climbed to €65.00/tonne for EUA Dec 2024, and UK ETS prices increased to £38.07/tonne. The rise in carbon prices adds further pressure on power markets, particularly as coal prices also saw a significant jump, with ARA CIF coal for Cal 2025 reaching $126.15/tonne. The currency markets saw minor fluctuations, with the GBP/EUR exchange rate at 1.1949 and GBP/USD at 1.3058, as the energy sector keeps an eye on global economic indicators that could affect import costs and inflation. As we head into mid-October, the outlook remains bullish with colder temperatures expected to continue driving demand. Two more LNG cargoes are expected by early November, providing some relief, but supply risks persist. We could see continued price volatility as the market navigates these challenges.

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Daily #Energy Market #Report - September 5th, 2024 - The UK energy market today continues to reflect shifting dynamics across power generation, gas supplies, and pricing. We’re currently experiencing a brief period of warm temperatures, expected to last until September 8th, before we reach an inflexion point where temperatures are forecasted to drop significantly. This anticipated drop could influence short-term NBP Forward Market prices. On the renewable front, wind generation forecasts remain weak for the next two weeks, placing upward pressure on Unconstrained Balancing Line prices. The limited contribution of wind power to the grid underscores the volatility of renewable energy supply, especially as we transition towards a more sustainable energy system. Yesterday, the Norwegian maintenance schedule saw minor changes, with a day added to the Kollsnes and Nyhamna gas processing facilities, while Aasta Hansteen and Dvalin maintenance durations were slightly reduced. These adjustments may lead to further price volatility in the near term, but no significant shifts are expected yet. In terms of pricing, NBP gas and UK electricity markets have seen notable downward movement. NBP gas day-ahead prices increased slightly by 1.06%, but the overall trend points towards a drop in forward prices, with October 2024 NBP prices falling by 3.94%. The UK electricity market also followed a similar trend, with day-ahead power prices declining 15.68% for base and 16.07% for peaks. Longer-term contracts for Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 show reductions across the board, with decreases of between 2% and 3%. The UK gas system remains long, with a surplus of 8.32 million cubic meters, reflecting lower demand versus seasonal norms. LNG imports and domestic supply continue to support the system, though any significant changes in interconnector flows or storage levels could drive fluctuations. The week ahead could bring further adjustments, particularly as we approach the inflexion point in temperature and see the impact of maintenance on gas flows. With renewables contributing less to the mix, reliance on gas and interconnector imports remains strong, but any shifts in market conditions will likely cause further price movement. As these trends continue to unfold, it's crucial to stay informed and agile. Our team at Catalyst Commercial Services Ltd is here to provide insights and support as you navigate the evolving energy landscape. #EnergyMarket #UKEnergy #CarbonTrading #NaturalGas #MarketUpdate #EnergyInsights

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This morning 14th October, the UK energy system started the week short by 19 million cubic meters, underscoring market tightness. Gas prices eased slightly, with the NBP Day-Ahead contract settling at 96.40 p/therm, down from Friday. However, volatility remains a factor as global markets continue to react to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Norwegian flows to the UK are stable at 77.5 mcm/day, though a small unplanned outage at Oseberg is curtailing 12 mcm/day, with full capacity expected to resume tomorrow. LNG sendout has increased to 38 mcm/day, with Milford Haven preparing to receive a shipment tomorrow, marking the first of three cargoes expected in the coming weeks. Demand for gas-fired power is expected to decline as wind generation picks up throughout the week, thanks to improving wind speeds. Forecasts predict warmer-than-usual temperatures, peaking above seasonal norms by midweek and likely staying mild until the end of October. Storage injections continue across Europe, with total reserves now 94.93% full, although intermittent withdrawals are being made to meet higher spot demand in some regions. The UK power market saw day-ahead baseload prices soften to 76.08 £/MWh, reflecting the downward trend in gas prices. Peak power prices dropped even more sharply, settling at 77.32 £/MWh, down from Friday’s levels. Renewables are expected to play a larger role this week, easing pressure on gas-fired generators. Brent crude prices remain steady, with the front-month contract at 79.04 $/bbl, as market participants monitor developments in the Middle East. Carbon prices also saw minimal movement, with EUA Dec-24 trading at 64.62 €/tonne and UK ETS Dec-24 at 37.55 £/tonne. Currency markets showed little change, with GBP/EUR at 1.1947 and GBP/USD at 1.3066. With several LNG arrivals on the horizon and wind generation set to increase, the market may experience some easing in supply concerns as we move through the week. Nonetheless, the potential for disruptions, especially from global geopolitical events, remains a key factor to watch.

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As of October 1, 2024, the UK energy market has entered a critical period as colder weather and tighter supply conditions push natural gas prices higher. The NBP Day-Ahead settled at 92.35 p/therm today, driven by falling temperatures across the UK and Europe, which are expected to remain below the five-year average for the rest of the week. With Norwegian gas exports holding steady and UKCS terminal receipts down, gas-for-power demand has surged in response to a forecasted decline in wind speeds throughout the week. Meanwhile, UK LNG send-outs have increased to 29 mcm/day, with the next LNG cargo from Qatar anticipated later this week to shore up supplies. On the forward curve, NBP front-month prices climbed modestly, with November 2024 contracts up by 0.96 p/therm to 97.36 p/therm, while December 2024 saw a rise of 0.77 p/therm to 99.36 p/therm. Curve prices continue to reflect market concerns around reduced LNG imports and the potential for increased demand as the winter period approaches, setting the stage for continued volatility. In the power market, UK Day-Ahead baseload prices fell to £71.78/MWh, a drop of £5.02 from the previous session, while peakload power rose to £88.09/MWh. The tightening of the power system, driven by reduced wind generation and increasing reliance on gas for power, suggests further upward pressure on power prices as the week progresses. Forward baseload contracts, particularly January 2025, have seen slight increases, with the contract settling at £90.15/MWh, up by £0.75. As renewable output declines and colder weather takes hold, higher demand for gas-fired power generation is likely to fuel further price hikes. European gas storage levels remain robust, standing at 94.28% as reported by AGSI, offering some cushion for the winter months. However, risks tied to LNG supply reductions and planned outages at key Norwegian gas facilities could exacerbate market tightness. These developments highlight the importance of closely monitoring supply flows as winter approaches. In the global commodities market, Brent crude futures for November 2024 eased slightly by $0.21, settling at $71.77/bbl. Market sentiment remains cautious amid global economic uncertainties, contributing to softening oil prices. On the carbon market, EUA December 2024 prices dropped by €0.77 to settle at €65.56/tonne, while UK ETS contracts also saw a slight decline, closing at £36.45/tonne. These shifts come against the backdrop of ongoing discussions on the future of emissions reductions and energy transition strategies across Europe, which could have further implications for carbon pricing in the coming months. As we move further into October, the market will be focused on how sustained cooler temperatures and reduced wind generation will impact both gas and power prices. LNG cargo arrivals and any potential disruptions to Norwegian gas flows will also be key factors shaping market dynamics in the days ahead.

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As the UK #energy #market gears up for colder weather, rising demand and tightening supply conditions are driving up prices, with market participants already preparing for the volatility of the upcoming winter months. The UK NBP Day-Ahead gas price settled at 88.00 p/therm, reflecting a 2.75 p/therm increase from the previous day. The market has been bolstered by a combination of cooler weather across Europe and a five-day extension to the maintenance outage at Norway’s Kollsnes gas processing plant. The plant is now scheduled to return to full operation on 18th September, but its curtailed capacity of 52 mcm/day has already lifted European hub prices. UK demand has risen sharply as temperatures are forecasted to drop significantly below seasonal norms, with the coldest point expected on Friday when temperatures are predicted to fall 5-7°C below the five-year average. The UK gas system opened today with a surplus, running 19 mcm long. UKCS terminal receipts increased to 88.8 mcm/day, up by 9.4 mcm from yesterday, while Norwegian flows to the UK were also slightly higher. Total LNG send-out remains steady at 10 mcm/day, with storage withdrawals increasing in response to the colder weather. The UK has two LNG tankers scheduled to arrive, one at the Isle of Grain today and another in three weeks, which will help support the system in the near term. Meanwhile, Europe’s storage levels remain robust at 93.19% full, ensuring a buffer against the seasonal demand spike. Looking at gas contracts, the Oct24 price rose by 2.73 p/therm to 87.31 p/therm, while the Winter 2024 contract increased by 1.63 p/therm to settle at 97.19 p/therm. There is growing concern among market participants about potential price volatility in the months ahead, with the Q1 2025 contract now at 100.57 p/therm, a 1.35 p/therm increase from yesterday. On the power side, the UK Day-Ahead baseload price surged to £78.00/MWh, an increase of £27.96/MWh compared to the previous session. The increase reflects the upward movement in gas prices and reduced wind generation. Forward power contracts are also responding to these movements, with the Winter 2024 base contract settling at £85.50/MWh. Despite this rise, supply fundamentals remain stable, with the UK benefiting from healthy interconnector flows and stable nuclear generation. Oil markets also saw upward pressure today, with Brent crude rising to $70.61/bbl, a $1.42/bbl increase from the previous day, driven by concerns over supply disruptions from Hurricane Francine. Coal prices followed suit, with the API2 Cal Y+1 contract increasing to $117.54/tonne. With colder weather and supply constraints tightening the market, participants will be closely monitoring both demand and key infrastructure developments over the coming days. All eyes remain on Norway and the potential for more volatility ahead of the winter heating season.

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End of Day UK #Energy Market Update – 05/09/2024 The UK energy markets saw a notable rebound today, ending a three-day losing streak across Power and Gas prices. Front-month UK Power closed at £74.25/MWh, up by 1.71%, while the front-month NBP Gas contract saw an increase of 1.79%, closing at 87.52p/therm. This uptick comes after a period of downward pressure, likely driven by the recent cooler weather forecasts and improved wind generation across Europe. Gas prices, which had been in decline, regained momentum following Russian President Vladimir Putin's comments, indicating that Russia remains willing to supply gas to Europe through Gazprom. However, with Europe's firm stance on reducing dependency on Russian gas, concerns are mounting over potential supply constraints post-New Year, as the transit agreement via Ukraine is set to expire. Further out on the curve, Q1 2025 Power prices increased by 1.95%, closing at £82.36/MWh, while Gas contracts for the same period rose by 2.04%, finishing at 94.67p/therm. Market sentiment remains cautious, with traders pricing in possible supply disruptions and colder-than-expected weather forecasts for early 2025. In the carbon markets, Dec24 EUAs slipped by 0.66%, closing at €66.56/tonne, reflecting a softening in demand expectations. In contrast, UKAs inched up by 0.57%, finishing at £42.01/tonne as the UK government continues to align its carbon policies with broader European targets. On the global commodities front, Brent crude surged by 1.68%, settling at $73.92/barrel, amid tightening supply expectations as OPEC+ maintains its output cuts. This rise in oil prices also provided some bullish sentiment to the broader energy complex. With geopolitical tensions still a key driver of volatility, and Europe on the cusp of transitioning away from Russian gas supplies, it remains essential for market participants to stay agile in navigating the evolving landscape. Our team at Catalyst Commercial Services Ltd is here to provide insights and support as you navigate the evolving energy landscape. #EnergyMarket #UKEnergy #CarbonTrading #NaturalGas #MarketUpdate #EnergyInsights

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End of Day Market Close - UK Energy Markets (August 19, 2024) As the markets closed today, we witnessed notable movements across the UK energy landscape. The front-month UK Power contract ended the day at £82.54/MWh, marking a 2.09% increase. This volatility may reflect ongoing geopolitical tensions influencing market sentiment. Similarly, the front-month NBP natural gas contract saw a modest rise, closing up 0.69% at 95.94p/therm. On the carbon front, Dec24 EUA prices increased by 0.98% to €73.23/ton, while UKA prices dipped slightly, down 0.51% to £40.70/ton. Brent crude also experienced a minor decline, finishing the day at $79.13/barrel, a 0.69% drop, reflecting broader concerns in the global energy market. As always, staying informed is crucial in these dynamic times. Let’s continue to monitor the trends closely and adapt our strategies accordingly. #EnergyMarkets #UKPower #NaturalGas #CarbonTrading #BrentCrude

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Today marked the 7th British Gas Energy Trust Twentieth Anniversary Roundtable Discussion event. The aim of the round tables has been to gather #evidence and #insight as to what works and what needs to happen next to #alleviate the detrimental impact of poverty and indeed help prevent fuel poverty - with a focus on key groups most affected by it. Today we were in #Leicester and the focus was on #Women and #Families - we were delighted to have Benaifer Bhandari, #HopscotchWomen’s centre, Zinthiya Ganeshpanchan FRSA Zinthiya Trust, Victoria Benson Gingerbread and Catherine O'Kelly British Gas as our keynote speakers and it was a joy to Chair such an insightful group of participants. The conversation honed in on the structural inequality which causes hardship to women and families or the “double disadvantage faced by women and children”. We talked about how the services represented in the room have seen a significant lift in women seeking support, Gingerbread research has found that 87% of income in single parent households is going on fuel and housing there is very little money for other basic necessities such as food, hygiene products and clothing. So what next - it wasn’t just an engaging and thoughtful provoking session- we want it to lead to change. The findings of this discussion together with recommendations from our other consultative round tables are to be published in November - already key themes of #Datasharing, #trust, #communitybased #personcentred support #longtermfunding have risen to the top. What also struck me today was a real desire for charities and business to work together - with an ask from many in the room for there to be a “pledge and commitment to a new strategic alliance between civil society and the beyond profit sector with business” to help bring together the skills of both to achieve real societal change. #mutualtrust #mutualrespect With thanks to Miranda Corti, Trustee of the British Gas Energy Trust, Sarah Hayle Claire Meek, Suki Kaur Ravi Rajapakse, Sam Taylor, Sarah Parry Adrian Lyayi and Vivien Waterfield CBE Sarah Wright Samantha Hassan and others for their valued contributions to the discussion. COMMUNITY LAW SERVICE (NORTHAMPTON AND COUNTY) Family Action GamCare Home-Start UK Auriga Services Limited HOPE AGAINST POVERTY INC Energy for Tomorrow (EfT) #AdviceSaves

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As of 8th October 2024, the UK energy markets have started the day with notable fluctuations in both gas and power prices, driven by supply constraints and shifting weather conditions. In the gas market, the NBP Day-Ahead price climbed to 100.00 p/therm, reflecting a 2.20 p/therm increase from the previous session. This rise comes amid reduced gas flows from Norway due to ongoing unplanned maintenance at the Asgard field and an extended outage at Troll, impacting total exit flows. Despite this, exports from Norway to the UK via the Langeled pipeline have increased, supporting the UK system, which opened 8 mcm/day long this morning. LNG send-out has decreased to 11 mcm/day, with three new cargoes expected to arrive in the UK over the next three weeks. UK storage injections continue, and pan-European storage remains robust at 94.56%, though minor withdrawals are being observed in some countries. On the power side, the UK Day-Ahead baseload price rose to £89.09/MWh, up by £12.85/MWh compared to the previous session, while the peak load price surged to £94.14/MWh. This price spike is largely due to expected cooler temperatures from tomorrow, which will drive up heating demand through the middle of the month. Wind output remains strong and is forecasted to stay above seasonal norms for the next two days before stabilising at average levels. Nuclear outages continue to play a significant role, with several key plants still offline or under maintenance, further tightening supply. Looking at other energy commodities, Brent crude oil is trading at $80.93/bbl, a $2.88 increase from the previous settlement, driven by a combination of OPEC+ cuts and ongoing geopolitical risks. Coal prices for ARA CIF Cal Y+1 settled at $127.25/tonne, slightly down by $0.54/tonne. In the carbon market, the EU ETS Dec-24 contract fell to €61.76/tonne, the lowest level in six months, while the UK ETS Dec-24 contract dropped to £35.29/tonne. These declines come amid lower industrial activity and cooler weather across the continent. In currency markets, the GBP/EUR exchange rate dipped slightly to 1.1916, while GBP/USD fell to 1.3083, reflecting ongoing global economic uncertainties. As colder weather sets in and supply challenges persist, the UK energy markets are likely to remain volatile. Keep an eye on gas imports, LNG arrivals, and nuclear availability, as these will be key factors influencing prices in the coming days.

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