Digital TV Research

OTT TV episode and movie revenues for 22 Eastern European countries will reach $6.96 billion in 2029; up from $3.82 billion in 2023. From the $3.1 billion additional revenues between 2023 and 2029, Russia will provide $1 billion and Poland $0.7 billion. Simon Murray, Principal Analyst at Digital TV Research, said: “Together Poland and Russia will account for two-thirds of the region’s 2029 revenues. This means that the remaining 20 countries will share $2.57 billion – or an average of only $129 million each.” SVOD revenues will reach $4.3 billion by 2029 – up from $2.4 billion in 2023. Russia and Poland will be the only countries to generate SVOD revenues in excess of $1 billion by 2029. AVOD will add $1 billion to take its total to $1.9 billion

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The number of pay TV subscribers in Eastern Europe will decline by 8 million from 81 million in the peak year of 2018 to 74 million in 2029. However, 2018 included 17 million analog cable subscribers, which will drop to zero by 2027. The number of digital pay TV subscribers will rise by 9 million over this period. Pay TV subscriber numbers will fall in 20 of the 22 countries covered between 2023 and 2029, with the total down by 2.4 million. There will be 4.6 million fewer analog cable subs. Pay satellite TV will fall by 2.6 million. However, IPTV will gain 2.8 million and digital cable 1.9 million. Russia will account for nearly half of the region’s pay TV subscribers in 2029, despite losing 2.6 million pay TV subscribers between 2023 and 2029. Simon Murray, Principal Analyst at Digital TV Research, said: “Tough times continue in Eastern Europe, with poor job prospects forcing many to seek work abroad. This migration married with low birth rates mean that populations will fall or stall in 17 of the 22 countries covered in this report between 2023 and 2029.”

By 2029, Western Europe and North America will each have 117 million SVOD subscribers [homes paying for at least one SVOD subscription]. Netflix and Disney+ subscriber numbers will be close. However, North America outscores Western Europe after that. Showing greater depth of platforms on offer, North American SVOD subscribers will pay for 4.45 subscriptions in 2029. Western European counterparts will pay for two subscriptions fewer (2.44).

Western European OTT TV episode and movie revenues will reach $48 billion in 2029; up from $31 billion in 2023. The UK will contribute $10 billion in 2029, Germany $9 billion, Italy $5 billion and France $7 billion. Simon Murray, Principal Analyst at Digital TV Research, said: “We expect that Netflix, Disney+, Max and Paramount+ together will generate AVOD revenues of $2.4 billion by 2029 – with a further $16.2 billion from SVOD.”

Latin America will have 165 million SVOD subscriptions by 2029; up from 110 million at end-2023. Brazil will provide 59 million SVOD subscriptions by 2029, with Mexico bringing in a further 43 million. Seven US-based platforms (Netflix, Amazon Prime Video, Disney+, Star+, Paramount+, Apple TV+ and Max) will account for 83% of the region’s paying SVOD subscriptions by end-2029. Netflix will add 9 million subscribers between 2023 and 2029, with Disney+ up by 8 million, Max by 10 million and Paramount+ increasing by 6 million. Globoplay, only available in Brazil, will take another 8% of the total. Simon Murray, Principal Analyst at Digital TV Research, said: “All of the major US platforms are very active in Latin America. Another dimension is added by local players such as Globo and Televisa [Vix].”

North American OTT TV episode and movie revenues will reach $100 billion in 2029; up from $81 billion in 2023. The US will contribute $16 billion from the $19 billion additional revenues, with Canada supplying the rest. US revenues will be $92 billion in 2029. North American AVOD revenues will increase from $17 billion in 2023 to $25 billion in 2029. SVOD revenues will climb by $10 billion between 2023 and 2029 to $67 billion. Simon Murray, Principal Analyst at Digital TV Research, said: “Despite being the most mature OTT market by some distance, the US OTT sector continues to grow as cord-cutting show no signs of abating. The US is unique, given the poor state of the pay TV market and the wide OTT choice.”

The number of pay TV subscribers in Latin America will stay at 53-54 million. This is down from the peak of 73 million in 2017. Brazil lost 9 million subscribers between 2015 and 2023, but will “only” lose 2 million between 2023 and 2029 to total 7.8 million. Mexico has more pay TV subscribers than Brazil despite having many fewer TV households. Mexico has lost subscribers since its peak year of 2016 (21 million), but will now settle at around 16 million. Simon Murray, Principal Analyst at Digital TV Research, said: “Most Latin American countries – not all – are coming out of economic recessions and periods of social unrest, which adversely affected the pay TV sector. Pay TV also has to battle against the well-served SVOD sector, with the major US-based platforms all operational in Latin America.

Table of contents: 1.    North America to lose 10 million pay TV subs 2.    Netflix to lose its Arabic leadership 3.    Africa SVOD to add 9 million subscriptions 4.    MENA pay TV to lose $1.6 billion 5.    Africa to add 12 million pay TV subs 6.    Netflix subscriber growth by region 7.    Netflix subscriber additions by quarter 8.    Netflix monthly ARPU by region 9.    Disney+ subscribers by region 10. Disney+ ARPU growth per quarter 11. Disney D2C subscriber growth 12. Starz subscriber growth 13. Viaplay subscriber growth 14. BARB: UK SVOD platform subscribers 15. Liberty Global/LLA subscribers 16. Vodafone Europe subscribers 17. Orange Europe subscribers