Unhedged

Eli Lilly’s shares have surged 750 per cent over five years. Novo Nordisk’s are up about 360 per cent in the same period. It's been an awesome run for these companies. But how much longer can it last? Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and Aiden Reiter talk to the FT’s US pharmaceutical and biotech correspondent Oliver Barnes about the astonishing growth in weight-loss drugs, and their future. Also we short inflation and running clubs. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer You can email Robert Armstrong at robert.armstrong@ft.com and Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com. Unhedged has been nominated for a Signal Award! You can vote for us here: https://vote.signalaward.com/PublicVoting#/2024/shows/general/money-finance Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Stocks are flying, rates are plunging, jobs are surging, but everyone says they’re anxious. What is going on? Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong try to understand the many strange and sometimes contradictory things happening in the US economy. Also, we go short Spirit Halloween and long monsters. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer You can email Robert Armstrong at robert.armstrong@ft.com and Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com. Unhedged has been nominated for a Signal Award! You can vote for us here: https://vote.signalaward.com/PublicVoting#/2024/shows/general/money-finance Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

As the conflict in the Middle East expands to include Lebanon and Iran, markets are responding with surprising nonchalance. Why? And will that last? Today on the show, Katie Martin and capital markets correspondent Nick Megaw try to understand why so much can go wrong in one part of the world, without roiling markets in the rest of the world. Also, we go long the Vix, and short e-cycles. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer You can email Robert Armstrong at robert.armstrong@ft.com and Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com. Unhedged has been nominated for a Signal Award! You can vote for us here: https://vote.signalaward.com/PublicVoting#/2024/shows/general/money-finance Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Last week China announced it would be providing low-cost funds to investors in both equities and the property market. The nominal effects were immediate, and the country’s stock market has recently risen as much as 20 per cent. Boosting stock prices is one thing, but there is a bigger problem: can Beijing encourage more domestic spending, and less saving? Today on the show, Katie Martin discusses all this with the Unhedged newsletter's newest writer, Aiden Reiter, who, it turns out, speaks Mandarin. Also we go long morning swims and long our own show. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer You can email Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com and Aiden Reiter at aiden.reiter@ft.com. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

When discussing the economy after the interest rate cuts last week, chair of the US Federal Reserve Jay Powell made an interesting comment about jobs numbers and immigration. “If you are having millions of people come into the labour force, and you are creating 100,000 jobs, you’re going to see unemployment go up,” he said. Well, mostly. Today on the show, the entire staff of the Unhedged newsletter – Rob Armstrong and Aiden Reiter – get together to discuss how immigration might be affecting unemployment. Also, they go long and short China’s new stimulus programmes. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer You can email Robert Armstrong at robert.armstrong@ft.com and Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

As the Federal Reserve starts to lower interest rates, a perennial theory has returned: that small- and mid-caps will, for a time, grow more quickly than the S&P 500. Today on the show, Katie Martin, Rob Armstrong, and Aiden Reiter discuss whether that is good, or even true. Also, as the seasons change, we go long and short knitwear. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer You can email Robert Armstrong at robert.armstrong@ft.com and Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In a massive surprise on Wednesday, one of Rob Armstrong’s predictions turned out to be right. The Fed did indeed cut interest rates by half a percentage point. A cut this big is deeply unusual, and normally happens in a crisis. But there are a lot of reasons to think we’re not in a crisis at all. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong talk about what the Fed just did, and where the central bank is headed. Also, we go long European merger drama and short well-being at big banks. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer You can email Robert Armstrong at robert.armstrong@ft.com and Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Apollo Global Management is publicly traded and one of the largest alternative asset managers in the world. But what does it really do? Today on the show, Rob Armstrong asks reporters Sujeet Indap and Eric Platt to describe the parts that make up Apollo. Also they go long Boeing and long News Corp. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer You can email Robert Armstrong at robert.armstrong@ft.com and Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Forty years ago Ireland had a high number of emigrants and very few multinational corporations. Then it became a tax haven. Today, the country is the headquarters for the European arms of companies such as Apple, Google and Intel. The country also has an €8bn surplus, and is about to get €13bn more following a court ruling with the iPhone maker. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Irish economist David McWilliams try to figure out what Ireland should do with all this extra cash. Also they go short Trump Media and long the Netflix series, The Perfect Couple. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer You can email Robert Armstrong at robert.armstrong@ft.com and Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Will the US central bank lower interest rates by 25 or 50 basis points? Fed chair Jay Powell has hinted rates are coming down, but not by how much. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong take sides and argue the case for the expected 25 basis point cut, and a larger 50 basis point cut. Also we short Apple’s new phone, and go long the amazing technology of the veterinarian. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer You can email Robert Armstrong at robert.armstrong@ft.com and Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

By many measures, the US housing market is broken. High demand is causing high prices, and yet, year after year, new supply fails to arrive. What’s behind the mismatch? And is there any way to solve it? Today on the show, Robert Armstrong and Aiden Reiter discuss proposals from the two US presidential candidates, and other ideas. Also, we go short Turkey and short the yield curve. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer You can email Robert Armstrong at robert.armstrong@ft.com and Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The run-up in the markets over the past year or so has been largely driven by tech companies with outsized returns. But that seems to be changing. Names such as Walmart, Berkshire Hathaway and UnitedHealthCare have been performing strongly while the once-hot tech sector seems to lag. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong ask if this is a sign of an era shift in the market. Also we ask if Jerome Powell was lucky or good. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer You can email Robert Armstrong at robert.armstrong@ft.com and Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Toby Nangle is a regular contributor to the FT. Before he was a journalist, he was an asset manager for more than 25 years, and many of his clients were sovereign wealth funds. And some of the sovereigns of those wealth funds were doing things that made Nangle uncomfortable. So he quit. Today on the show, we discuss a massive problem faced by the investment industry: the ethical behaviour of its clients. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer You can email Robert Armstrong at robert.armstrong@ft.com and Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com. Register now for the FT Weekend Festival, and claim £24 off your pass using promo code FTPodcast at: ft.com/festival Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The price of gold reached a record high this week, passing $2,500 an ounce. Market watchers often ascribe a rise like this to inflation, fears about political instability or the endless insanity of the wild-eyed goldbug. But which is it? Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong unpack gold’s rise. Also we go long and short Nvidia. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer You can email Robert Armstrong at robert.armstrong@ft.com and Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com. Register now for the FT Weekend Festival, and claim £24 off your pass using promo code FTPodcast at: ft.com/festival Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Why do central bankers gather in the middle of nowhere every summer? And what will this week's meeting in the middle of nowhere mean for markets? Katie Martin and FT economics commentator Chris Giles explain everything you need to know about Jackson Hole. Also, we go long exclusive conferences and short exams. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer You can email Robert Armstrong at robert.armstrong@ft.com and Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com. Register now for the FT Weekend Festival, and claim £24 off your pass using promo code FTPodcast at: ft.com/festival Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Two weeks ago, investors seemed headed for the exits. Now they’re back in and cash is flooding the markets again. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong unpack the madness. Also, we go long gold and short social media. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer You can email Robert Armstrong at robert.armstrong@ft.com and Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com. Register now for the FT Weekend Festival, and claim £24 off your pass using promo code FTPodcast at: ft.com/festival Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

How would you like a 265,528,900 per cent return on your investment? Would you be interested in that? If so, join us as Rob Armstrong and FT Alphaville’s Robin Wigglesworth discuss the results of Professor Hendrik Bessembinder’s massive number-crunching project, which ranks the best stocks of the past century. The number one performer is pretty incendiary. Also we short break dancing and go triple reverse long on single-stock ETFs. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer You can email Robert Armstrong at robert.armstrong@ft.com and Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com. Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Jim Leaviss started his career in fixed income at the Bank of England, and is ending it 30 years later as the outgoing chief investment officer for fixed income of M&G Investments, which manages more than £100bn in bonds. Today on the show, Katie Martin talks with Jim about what he learned over his long career. Also, the two throw down on the best albums of the 90s. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer You can email Robert Armstrong at robert.armstrong@ft.com and Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com. Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Ackman is one of most well-known investors in the US, and one of the loudest. He has more than a million followers on X and isn’t afraid to argue with any of them. But his active social media feed and his fundraising seem to be at odds. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and James Fontanella-Khan dissect the remains of Ackman’s cancelled IPO. Also we go short Italy and long hypocrisy. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer You can email Robert Armstrong at robert.armstrong@ft.com and Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com. Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

On Monday, markets around the world agreed to go into a tailspin. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and guest Nick Megaw try to figure out what drove it all. They cover unemployment, manufacturing, the Japanese carry trade, the Magnificent Seven, and the foolishness of the retail investor. Also we go long Google, and long CNBC at midnight. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer You can email Robert Armstrong at robert.armstrong@ft.com and Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com. Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.