raouf riahi, MBCI

Maritime Security Bulletin and Geopolitical Update   Re: Hamas Has Killed (1) Israeli Soldier and Wounded (2)Others in a Gunfight in Southern Gaza. Issued by: Sanborn Analytics   Contact: [email protected] | Phone: (+1) (617) 539-6114   Media Credit: Israel Times (see link)   Date: October 14th, 2024 --- Subject: Fatal Incident in Southern Gaza Strip Involving Israeli IDF Forces On October 14th, 2024, Israeli Defense Force soldier Sgt. Koren Bitan, aged 19, was killed during active operations in the southern Gaza Strip, the Israeli Military has confirmed. Sgt. Bitan was engaged in a gunfight with Hamas operatives when the fatal incident occurred. In addition to Sgt. Bitan's death, two other IDF soldiers were wounded during the same exchange of fire. Sgt. Bitan was a member of Battalion 450, which is part of the Bislamach Brigade, also known as the School for Infantry Corps Professions and Squad Commanders. Prior to joining Battalion 450, Bitan had begun his service in the Kfir Brigade, a unit known for its role in counterterrorism and security operations within the West Bank. This incident highlights ongoing tensions and security challenges in the region, particularly as the conflict with Hamas in Gaza continues to impact both military personnel and civilian populations. For the maritime shipping community and naval forces operating in the Eastern Mediterranean, the risk of regional destabilization due to escalating conflict remains a critical factor. Sanborn Analytics advises heightened awareness of any naval or commercial operations near the Gaza Strip and surrounding areas, as spillover effects from the ground conflict may pose risks to maritime traffic and operational safety. The ongoing military actions, combined with potential retaliatory or terrorist activities, could disrupt shipping lanes or impact port access in adjacent waters. Recommendations: - Maintain communication with relevant military and port authorities when operating near the Eastern Mediterranean region. - Monitor for updates regarding potential military operations or escalations that may affect maritime routes. - Exercise caution and adhere to established safety protocols to mitigate the risk of collateral impact from ongoing military engagements. Sanborn Analytics issues this maritime security bulletin and advisory to inform the maritime shipping community and armed naval forces at sea. ---  #maritimesecurity #gaza #israel #hamas #israelhamaswar #palestine #iran #nationalsecurity #hoemlandsecurity #lebanon #hezbollah #beruit https://lnkd.in/eRFMaHvG

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📣 U.S. Sanctions Sudanese Armed Forces Procurement Director for Escalating Conflict On October 24, 2024, the United States imposed sanctions on Mirghani Idris Suleiman, Director General of the Sudanese Armed Forces’ (SAF) Defense Industries System, for his role in procuring weapons to escalate the conflict in Sudan. 📜 Under Executive Order 14098, the sanctions aim to hold Idris accountable for acquiring arms, including drones from Iran and Russia, and a port-for-weapons deal with Russia, which intensified SAF's war with the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). ✅ This action follows earlier sanctions on RSF leaders and highlights U.S. efforts to promote peace and accountability in Sudan, aiming to end the conflict and support a democratic transition. Original source 👉: https://lnkd.in/ga5cui8p #USsanctions #sanctionsupdate #Sudansanctions #RSF #SAF #ExecutiveOrder14098

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🇱🇧 Explosive Devices in Lebanon: An Analysis of Lawfulness in Modern Warfare This article studies the events surrounding the explosive attacks in Lebanon on September 17th and 18th through the lens of IHL, uncovering significant concerns about Israel’s adherence to IHL regarding the lawful use of weapons. 🚨 The lack of distinction between military objectives and civilian objects, coupled with the high number of civilian casualties, underscores the failure to comply with fundamental principles of IHL. This article explains how the implicit use of devices such as pagers, mobile phones, and laptops as explosive weapons hinders the ability to target combatants while minimising harm to civilians, making the use of this new method of warfare unlawful. This case exemplifies a broader and worrying trend of rising civilian harm in conflicts globally, as seen in Ukraine, the Middle East, and beyond. The analysis underscores the need for respect for the most basic principles of IHL, particularly distinction and caution, when developing and using new methods of warfare, and serves as a call for respect and accountability for the principles that aim to make conflicts more humane by safeguarding the lives of civilians. 🌍🕊️ ✏️This paper was written by Belén Padrón Salinas, edited by Dimitra Pateraki and supervised by Victoriano Vicente Botella Berenguer 🔗: https://lnkd.in/eerBKZja

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Maritime Security Bulletin and Geopolitical Update Re: Hamas Has Killed (2) Israeli Soldiers and Wounded(2)Others in a Gunfire Exchange in Gaza. Date: July 3rd, 2024 Issued by: Sanborn Analytics Contact Email [email protected] Phone: +1 (617) 539-6114 --- Maritime Security Bulletin and Geopolitical Update: Sanborn Analytics issues this maritime security bulletin and geopolitical update to advise the maritime shipping community and armed naval forces at sea of the latest developments in the region. Incident Report: On July 3rd, 2024, an Israeli officer was killed during fighting in Gaza City’s Shejaiya, as announced by the Israeli military. The slain soldier has been identified as Captain Elay Elisha Lugasi, age 21, a team commander in the 7th Armored Brigade’s 75th Battalion, hailing from Kiryat Shmona. In the same incident, three additional soldiers from the 75th Battalion sustained serious injuries. Impact and Assessment: Captain Lugasi’s death brings Israel’s military death toll on the ground against Hamas since October 7th, 2023, to 1016 killed in action (KIA) and over 2500 wounded. Sanborn Analytics assesses the Israeli military as currently ineffective, with the situation indicating that Hamas may now hold the upper hand in this ongoing conflict. In a related development, Hezbollah has launched over 100 rockets into northern Israel, further escalating tensions in the region. Advisory: Maritime vessels operating in the Eastern Mediterranean should exercise heightened caution and remain updated on regional security developments. Naval forces are advised to stay on high alert and be prepared for potential escalation or spillover of hostilities affecting maritime operations. Update: Sanborn Analytics has learned that another Israeli soldier involved in the reported incident has died in hospital. Media Credit: Information on the incident involving Captain Lugasi was obtained from the Israel Times (No Media Collaboration). Stay vigilant and prioritize safety in all operations. --- Sanborn Analytics - Providing critical updates and analyses to ensure maritime security and operational integrity. #maritimesecurity #israel #hamas #israelhamaswar #hezbollah #iran #nationalsecurity #homelandsecurity https://lnkd.in/e2c5WrYf

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Volume Name: Deadly pager blasts in Lebanon. A cyber-technical and supply chain attack, believed to be targeted at the militant group Hezbollah, caused the deaths of nine people by detonating pagers across Lebanon on Tuesday, injuring about 3,000 people, including fighters and the Iranian ambassador in Beirut. The Lebanese Ministry of Health reported that the death toll rose from eight to nine on Tuesday night, while the number of injured remained at 2,750. Hezbollah fighters use pagers as a low-tech communication tool to avoid Israeli location tracking. The pagers exploded in Hezbollah strongholds in southern Lebanon, in Beirut's southern suburbs of Dahiyeh, and in the eastern Bekaa Valley. Lebanon's Information Minister, Ziad Makary, described the afternoon detonations of the handheld devices, which are used by Hezbollah and others in Lebanon to send messages, as "Israeli aggression." According to other news sources, this attack is believed to have been carried out by Israel. Some speculation focuses on the radio network that the pagers rely on, suggesting that this network may have been hacked and that the system may have broadcast a signal triggering a reaction in already modified pagers. Others proposed that an attack could have caused the pager batteries to overheat and explode. However, many experts say this is unlikely because the explosion footage does not match the effects of battery overheating. Paul Christensen, a lithium-ion battery safety expert at Newcastle University, stated that the level of damage caused by the pager explosions seemed inconsistent with known cases of such batteries failing in the past. Some analysts say a type of supply chain attack involving tampering during the production or transportation of the pagers is more likely. Other analysts, such as former British Army officer and chemical weapons expert Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, suggested that Hezbollah's pagers could have been tampered with throughout the supply chain and "wired to explode on command." Supply chain attacks are becoming an increasing concern in the cybersecurity world, with several major incidents occurring recently as hackers gained access while products were being developed. Hardware supply chain attacks are much rarer, as they require physical access to the device. According to previous reports in the book "Rise and Kill First," Israeli intelligence forces have previously placed explosives in personal phones to target their enemies. Hackers have also demonstrated the ability to inject malicious code into personal devices, which in some cases caused the devices to overheat and explode. Such mass assassination attempts, which directly impact social life through devices, have reached a level that threatens the safety of standard users in everyday life. You are now warned of the weirdness. - The Cyber Encyclopedia of Weirdness #cyberencyclopediaofweirdness #cybersecurity #dataprivacy #dataleak #cyberattack #informationsecurity #technology

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Bidaa Organization Date: September 26, 2024 Statement of Condemnation and Denunciation, Bidaa Organization condemns in the strongest terms the barbaric and rabid air attacks launched by the Sudanese army aviation on unarmed civilians in the cities of: Saraf Omra, Mellit, Al-Koma in North Darfur, Al-Daien in East Darfur, Al-Suki in Sennar State, and Hamra Al-Sheikh in North Kordofan. These attacks, which took place on Wednesday, September 25, 2024, and resulted in the killing and wounding of dozens of innocent civilians, including women and children, constitute a flagrant violation of international humanitarian laws and constitute a heinous war crime that requires immediate accountability. Bidaa Organization believes that the use of military force against unarmed civilians is an unforgivable crime and calls on the international community and humanitarian organizations to take urgent action to hold accountable those responsible for these massacres and ensure the protection of civilians from these repeated crimes that sow terror and violate basic human rights to life and safety. We call on the relevant parties in the United Nations, the African Union and human rights organizations to open an immediate and urgent investigation into these crimes and refer those involved to international justice. The organization also calls on the international community to take decisive steps to stop these brutal attacks, ban flights in the skies of Sudan, and pressure the parties involved to commit to stopping all military operations against civilians and providing them with the necessary protection. We at Bidaa Organization affirm that violence against innocent people cannot be a means to achieve any political or military goals, and we call on all parties to abide by international law and respect human rights. These crimes will not pass without accountability, and we will continue to work with our partners at the local and international levels to pursue the perpetrators of these atrocities and bring them to justice. Bidaa Organization Media We at Bidaa Organization affirm that violence against innocent people cannot be a means to achieve any political or military goals, and we call on all parties to abide by international law and respect human rights. These crimes will not pass without accountability, and we will continue to work with our partners at the local and international levels to pursue the perpetrators of these atrocities and bring them to justice. 26th September 2024, Bidaa Organization Media,

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📢 𝗧𝗵𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘁𝗠𝗮𝗽𝗿 𝗜𝗿𝗮𝗾 𝗗𝗮𝗶𝗹𝘆 𝗦𝗲𝗰𝘂𝗿𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 – 𝗢𝗰𝘁𝗼𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝟮𝟭, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟰 On October 21, Iraq experienced a series of significant security developments, impacting both national stability and regional dynamics: 𝟭. 𝗗𝗿𝗼𝗻𝗲 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗸𝗲𝘀 & 𝗠𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝗮𝗿𝘆 𝗢𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀: The Islamic Resistance in Iraq (IRI) launched drone strikes targeting military positions in the Syrian Golan Heights and Jordan Valley, further escalating tensions. Iraqi forces made progress in combating ISIS, eliminating several members in an airstrike in Saladin province and arresting four affiliates across Sulaymaniyah, Tikrit, and Kirkuk. 𝟮. 𝗦𝗲𝗰𝘂𝗿𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗢𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀: Armed confrontations in Maysan Governorate led to the arrest of three individuals and the seizure of illegal weapons. The second phase of the Al-Waqf security operation was launched in Diyala, targeting terrorist activities in orchards. Turkish forces reported two casualties in northern Iraq, and a drone reportedly headed for Ben Gurion Airport from Iraq was intercepted. 𝟯. 𝗦𝗮𝗳𝗲𝘁𝘆 𝗜𝗻𝗰𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘀: Fires broke out at Safwa University College in Karbala and in shops in Jablah district, with emergency services preventing further damage. Tragically, a man died in Sulaymaniyah while hanging election posters. 𝟰. 𝗣𝗼𝗹𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 & 𝗦𝗼𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗗𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗹𝗼𝗽𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘀: Demonstrations broke out in Baghdad, with students calling for more seats in higher education. Prime Minister Al Sudani highlighted the importance of strengthening intelligence coordination to address potential national security threats during a National Intelligence Council meeting. 𝟱. 𝗞𝘂𝗿𝗱𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗻 𝗥𝗲𝗴𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗘𝗹𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗥𝗲𝘀𝘂𝗹𝘁𝘀: The 𝗞𝘂𝗿𝗱𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗻 𝗗𝗲𝗺𝗼𝗰𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗰 𝗣𝗮𝗿𝘁𝘆 (𝗞𝗗𝗣) won a decisive victory in the parliamentary elections with 𝟴𝟬𝟵,𝟭𝟵𝟳 𝘃𝗼𝘁𝗲𝘀, nearly doubling the 𝗣𝗮𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗼𝘁𝗶𝗰 𝗨𝗻𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗼𝗳 𝗞𝘂𝗿𝗱𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗻 (𝗣𝗨𝗞), which garnered 𝟰𝟬𝟴,𝟭𝟰𝟭 𝘃𝗼𝘁𝗲𝘀. The 𝗡𝗲𝘄 𝗚𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗠𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗻t rose as the third-largest party with 𝟮𝟵𝟬,𝟵𝟵𝟭 𝘃𝗼𝘁𝗲𝘀. Following the results, the US government encouraged political parties to engage in dialogue, emphasizing unity despite political differences. Iraq’s Independent High Electoral Commission reported 99.63% of votes counted. 6. 𝗢𝗶𝗹 & 𝗚𝗮𝘀: Authorities arrested five individuals involved in oil smuggling in Salah al-Din, seizing vehicles used in the operation. 🔴 Overall Security Threat: Iraq’s security threat level remains high due to regional tensions sparked by drone strikes and persistent ISIS activity. While military operations and arrests show progress, the presence of extremist elements and ongoing regional conflicts make the situation volatile. #ThreatMapr #SecurityUpdate #Iraq #KurdistainElection #DroneStrikes #OilSmuggling #DailyReports

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After the start of Yemen’s civil war in 2011, the RF took an equidistant position and did not actively interfere.RF limited itself to calling on all parties to immediately cease fire. At the same time, RF maintained dialogue with all the main participants in the Yemen conflict. RF diplomats regularly met with representatives of Presidential Leadership Council (PLC), the separatist Southern Transitional Council (STC), and the former ruling party, the General People’s Congress (GPC). But recently, a clear bias has emerged in favor of the latter.Of course, RF is not the only external force taking an interest in what is happening in Yemen. Saudi Arabia has always supported the PLC. The UAE helps the STC, which allows Abu Dhabi to explore oil fields in southern Yemen. The Houthis, have for many years received weapons, money, and information support from Iran. In the past 2.5 years, RF Deputy Foreign Minister Bogdanov has met with Houthi representatives at least 4 times: more than with any other participant in the conflict in Yemen. Advisers from RF’s military intelligence agency, are now working in Sanaa under the guise of humanitarian aid workers. Iranian military instructors have been operating in Yemen for many years under a similar scheme. In the summer of 2024, Kremlin had been preparing to supply the Houthis with weapons, but was forced to abandon the idea under pressure from the USA and Saudi Arabia. Indeed, it is cooperation with Iran that has pushed RF to become more actively involved in the Yemen conflict. Having become dependent on Iranian arms supplies for its war against Ukraine, RF is being increasingly drawn into Tehran’s orbit in the Middle East, and is accordingly beginning to actively support Iran’s satellites in the region. RF’s position on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is indicative. RF have never publicly condemned the war of Hamas against Israel. Having adopted an anti-Israel position, RF is also trying to present itself as the leader of the Global South: of all those who are dissatisfied with the position of the West. What RF gets in exchange is the blessing for its policies. On February 21, 2022-three days before RF’s invasion of Ukraine-the Houthis expressed support for the recognition of Donetsk and Luhansk, as independent republics. Hamas voiced hope that RF special military operation will lead to the formation of a multipolar world. And Hezbollah even supplies RF with men to fight in Ukraine in exchange for weapons. As for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the Kremlin is reluctant to sever ties with Israel completely. In this respect, RF’s reaction to Iran’s April attacks on Israeli territory was telling: Moscow did not side with Tehran, but limited itself to expressing extreme concern at yet another dangerous escalation. In the Yemen conflict, however, it will be very difficult for the RF to maintain equidistance. Its growing interaction with the Houthis, especially at the military level, will make itself felt.  

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#Jordan - International military drills involving 32 armed forces begin in Jordan Military forces from across the Middle East are joining US troops on exercises in Jordan with the launch of Eager Lion, a 32-country drill focused on counter-terrorism, counter-drone operations and responding to weapons of mass destruction, including nuclear bombs. The US Central Command, the military headquarters in the Middle East, said the training would also focus on humanitarian operations. “Eager Lion 24 will focus on training participating partners on co-operation and interoperability between military and inter-agency organisations. This year’s scenario will address regional challenges across air, land, sea and cyber domains, as well as support of multinational disaster response operations and humanitarian aid assistance,” US military said on Sunday. The Saudi Press Agency published photos of Saudi M1A1 tanks and Bradley fighting vehicles taking part in the exercises. “The exercise will train participants to prepare against cyber threats from fictitious adversaries, advance the development of partnered counter-terrorism skills, expand Integrated Air and Missile Defence synchronisation, and sharpen proficiencies in maritime and border security,” US military command said. Col Mustafa Al Hiyari, a spokesman for the Jordanian military, said the “drills have nothing to do with regional developments,” although the US has co-ordinated with Jordan and other regional countries dropping aid from cargo planes into Gaza. Jordan also said it had shot down some of the several hundred drones and missiles fired by Iran at Israel on April 14, with the government confirming that its forces shot down “foreign objects in Jordanian airspace”. King Abdullah II said Jordan “will not be a battlefield for any party, and the protection of Jordanians comes above all else”. Col Al Hiyari said that “Eager Lion” is intended to help fight “terrorist organisations”, and respond to “the proliferation of drones, and biological, chemical and nuclear weapons of mass destruction” as well as major disasters. He said the exercises that began on Sunday were the largest since the first Eager Lion edition in 2011, and aimed “to confront the emerging and cross-border threats of this era”. The countries participating include Poland, Norway, Romania, Japan and Australia alongside several Arab states such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Morocco and Lebanon. The previous Eager Lion exercise in September 2022 included about 2,200 Jordanian soldiers, 1,700 from the US and a total of 400 more from 27 other countries. https://lnkd.in/eTAm_taT

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#SAS #TravelSecurity #SecurityServices #Yemen: An explosive device detonated in southern Yemen, killing six troops belonging to a UAE-backed secessionist group. The attack took place in the Modiyah district of southern Abyan province and targeted a military vehicle. The Southern Armed Forces, the military arm of the Southern Transitional Council, confirmed the incident and reported that eleven other troops were wounded. The secessionist group controls a significant portion of Yemen's south and is at odds with the internationally recognized government, although they share a common enemy in the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels. The spokesman for the Southern Armed Forces blamed al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) for the attack. AQAP is considered one of the more dangerous branches of the terrorist group and has been exploiting Yemen's civil war to strengthen its presence in the country. The conflict in Yemen began in 2014 when the Houthis captured Sanaa, the capital, and forced the internationally recognized government into exile. #Investigations #Intelligence #Securityservices #Executiveprotection #Securitymanagement #Travelrisk #Travelsecurity #Riskanalysis #Securitylogistic For info: S.A.S. investigations and security Phone: +39 0463 901545 Web: www.sasinvestigation.com Mail. [email protected]

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Amid the enduring security crisis in the Middle East, an urgent need arises to contemplate novel strategies for great power cooperation alongside competition in pursuit of peace and stability. Join GNSI, in partnership with U. S. Central Command (USCENTCOM) as we present GNSI Tampa Summit 4, featuring the 10th Great Power Competition Conference (GPC10), September 24-25. Registration is now open here: https://ow.ly/Ihoc50SS4eN There's no cost to attend and the conference is open to the public. This is an IN-PERSON event that will be held at the Marshall Student Center on the Tampa campus of University of South Florida. Confirmed speakers include: • General (Ret) Frank McKenzie U.S. Marines, Exec Director of GNSI and former commander of USCENTCOM • Ambassador (Ret) Greta Holtz, CEO of Amideast • Ambassador (Ret) Gerald Feierstein • Merissa Khurma, Program Director, Wilson Center | Middle East Program • Howard Shatz, RAND Corporation • Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen, Director, United States Institute of Peace (USIP) • Ali Alfoneh, Senior Fellow, The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington • Dalia Dassa Dalia Dassa Kaye, PhD, UCLA Burkle Center for International Relations Discussion panels will include: – Imagining Peace in the Middle East – The Faith of the Abraham Accords – A Common Enemy and Cooperative Security – Disruption in the Global Supply Chain Due to Middle East Conflict It may seem futile to envision peace in the Middle East, but the world must not abandon the people of the region to the violence and war that have plagued it for hundreds of years. This conference will look for paths not taken, seek ideas previously not considered and embrace possibilities never before imagined. More speakers will be added to the agenda in the coming weeks. Reserve your seat today! https://ow.ly/Ihoc50SS4eN #MiddleEast #Peace #GordianKnot #GlobalSecurity #NationalSecurity #Summit #GreatPowerCompetition #GreatStrategicCompetition #Diplomacy #Intelligence

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April Sentinel analysis: “The State of al-Qa`ida Central” by Kévin Jackson “More than a year and a half after the killing of Ayman al-Zawahiri in Kabul, al-Qa`ida Central has yet to acknowledge the demise of its emir and announce his replacement. After having lost its franchises in Iraq and Syria and after having seen its hegemony on the global jihadi scene hollowed out, the organization now operates without a declared leader, a first in its history. Coupled with the protracted absence of operational success of its own, this track record reinforces the widespread notion that al-Qa`ida Central has become and will remain irrelevant. However, while the challenges facing the group are real, it should not be written off, as it has proved time and again more resilient than expected and can still count on its longstanding network of affiliates and followers to survive and potentially reverse its fortunes.” Access the article here: https://lnkd.in/emXpM9Fc

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🌍 The Horn on the Move In recent weeks, at least two shipments of military equipment have been delivered from #Egypt to #Somalia. Furthermore, Egyptian troops have been reported to be deployed or are about to be deployed in Somalia, potentially as part of the upcoming AU peacekeeping mission against al-Shabaab. 🔄 If such developments undoubtedly represent a turning point for the power balances in the region, it is equally true that they are attributable to long-term dynamics. Firstly, the deployment of Egyptian boots on the ground falls within a context of escalating tensions between #Ethiopia and Somalia, particularly regarding the MoU signed between Addis Ababa and #Somaliland. These tensions have led to a gradual reduction of Ethiopian presence, at least formally, from Somalia, where just a few months ago, Ethiopia was the primary security provider for Somalia. The security vacuum Ethiopia will leave has been anticipated by Turkey, due to its longstanding presence and excellent relations with Somalia, also thanks to the signing of agreements for maritime military cooperation (Istanbul already has military training bases in Somalia). 🇹🇷 🇪🇬 #Turkey, which is making significant efforts to mend the rift between Addis Ababa and Mogadishu (a challenging task to date), and other foreign military powers in Somalia (Uganda, United States), are now joined by Egypt. However, Egypt's involvement is heavily influenced by the longstanding dispute with Ethiopia over the Nile waters and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Regarding the #GERD, Cairo has had little to no leverage due to Ethiopian intransigence. Egypt's presence in Somalia today seems to be, not so much in support of Mogadishu (the fight against al-Shabab will likely be costly with uncertain results), but rather with the objective of occupying part of the Ethiopian security vacuum, further distancing Addis Ababa and Mogadishu, which Istanbul would like to reconcile. 🔍 In this perspective, the different postures of Turkey and Egypt, whose goals in the Horn may eventually collide rather than align, will need to be carefully assessed in the coming months. Beyond foreign influences, however, the main regional dossier will be decided by the choices of Ethiopia and Somalia. Nonetheless, there are real concerns that, after years of an arms embargo, the significant influx of weapons could potentially be diverted to the numerous non-state militias operating in the region. This dynamic could exacerbate ongoing conflicts in Ethiopia, as well as affect the operations of al-Shabab in Somalia, not to mention the ongoing conflict in Sudan. 📜 The enduring dispute over the Nile waters remains a critical point in the relations between Ethiopia and Egypt, a topic I have explored from a historical perspective in one of my papers: https://lnkd.in/dwZWaf6c 🔔 Subscribe to my Linktree page to stay updated on publications, articles, infographics, and much more: https://linktr.ee/emaodd

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Northwest #Syria is experiencing the growth of Islamist private military companies These PMCs not only threaten the stability of the region, but may also export significant arms & expertise to #CentralAsia where many of these groups originate and actively recruit https://lnkd.in/eiS7pvvG

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#Sudan / #Russia - Sudan army set to give Russia Red Sea base in exchange for arms - excerpts from The National News: Sudan's army is expected to allow Moscow to build a naval logistics base on the Red Sea in exchange for arms as a top official from the north-eastern African country visits Russia to negotiate the deal. The army has been fighting a civil war against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces since April last year, with both sides seeking international allies and legitimacy. Malik Agar, a former rebel leader and army chief Gen Abdul Fattah Al Burhan's deputy on the ruling Sovereign Council, flew to Russia on Tuesday and is scheduled to meet President Vladimir Putin later this week on the sidelines of an economic forum in St Petersburg. If concluded, the deal could give the army a significant edge over the RSF, whose gains in the early days of the war in Khartoum caught the army off guard and allowed the paramilitary to capture large areas of territory in the western Darfur region and south of the Sudanese capital. “The army is in desperate need of weapons, ammunitions and spare parts for its Russian-made warplanes,” said prominent Sudanese analyst Osman Al Mirghany. “Offering Russia a naval base in return for them is its best option.” The expected deal between the army and the Kremlin would be a revival of an agreement that Moscow signed with former dictator Omar Al Bashir shortly before he was removed from power in April 2019 amid a popular uprising. That deal, publicised by Russia’s state-owned media in 2020, provides for the construction by Russia of a naval base north of the city of Port Sudan, which has remained in control of the Sudanese army. The base would accommodate up to four vessels and include storage for weapons, fuel and ammunition. Up to 300 navy personnel could stay at the site at any given time. Gen Al Burhan appears determined to dig deep in the fight against the RSF as he shuns calls by the US and Saudi Arabia to return to the negotiating table in Jeddah to find a peaceful end to the war. “Our real achievement is that we shifted from defence to attack. Our capabilities are ready for the recapture of Bahari and Khartoum,” said Gen Yasser Al Atta, assistant army chief, referring to the capital and its sister city. The capital’s other sister city is Omdurman, where the army has recently scored a string of victories, pushing the RSF out of the old quarter. Russia’s interest in a naval base in Sudan is part of its ambitious drive to gain leverage in Africa and a foothold on the Red Sea, one of the world’s busiest commercial routes and a focus of regional rivalries. Sudan has an 853km coastline on the Red Sea that sits on the waterway’s middle reaches, south of the Suez Canal and north of the Horn of Africa. For full story: https://lnkd.in/ecNg9_tf

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