None should doubt the HKMA will soon HAVE TO realign the HK$s allegiance from what has been a long standing, but now ‘has been’, strict peg to the US$. Shift that is, to managing the HK$ in close imitation of the constellation of currencies the PBOC moves the yuan within (Table 1).
To be clear from very late ‘22, interest rates in HK moved above those in China, with the gap widening thereafter; the first ever instance of such a premium (see chart 1). This carry-trade advantage for borrowers in China relative to those in HK, has coincided with the HK$ appreciating against the yuan (also chart 1). The consequence of this UNSUSTAINABLE monetary duality has been to throttle domestic capital investment into HK real estate, at the same time as encouraging debt to be ‘carried-in’ from The Mainland. In the interest (sic) of Hong Kong’s nationals, this CANNOT be allowed to continue. In the meantime, HK’s depressed real estate (house prices at a 7yr low), will find itself all the more monetarily overrun by opportunistic Chinese buyers.
The above said, from the perspective of mainland China, what appears to be an enticing investment arbitrage into HONG KONG’S REAL ESTATE, faces a building (sic) adverse loan to value shock. A covenant impairment hitting when, not if, the HK$ breaks its US$ peg, & FALLS against the yuan (again chart 2). For when the HK$ is released from its strict peg to the US$, its ‘natural’ direction will be to briefly move downwards against it (chart 3). As to how short this uncomfortable period will prove, the answer rests entirely on how quickly Beijing intervenes to buy into the HK$. The latter will be all the swifter the quicker the HKMA cooperates in accepting the HK$ needs to come under New Monetary Management. In rate terms those in HK must fall, so as to move into greater alignment with those of the PBOC, & away from those set by a distant Fed (chart 4).
To my mind at least, all the above is a certainty before the close of ‘25. Indeed, earlier into next year, should be thought the most likely given that a new Trump Term will see an escalation in tariffs against China, & relatedly & increase in US inflation & hawkish Fed policy.
To repeat,
1. borrowing in US$s & by strict association the HK$, is already more costly than in the yuan. &,
2. For some time, the US$ & HK$s have been moving higher relative to the yuan.
This duality - chart 1 - has encouraged China’s monetary takeover of HK. TO END THIS, THE HKMA must soon break the HK$/US$ peg.
On the theme of ‘fixed US$ pegs’ being suddenly broken because they no longer work, & how such FX'in shocks impact debt, equity & property markets, be prepared. Cos in ‘25 talk of breaking currency ranks to the US$, will become VERY public, in the Gulf.
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