sobata416

sobata416

The daily W%R is above -20; this indicates positive pressure on the market. Upside levels to watch: 10056.8, ~10350, ~10625, ~10820. Downside levels to watch: ~9820, 9382.9, ~9164, ~8875, 8613.5, 8360.

sobata416

is it time for a pullback? the daily W%R is now at its lowest level since late August; this indicates that positive momentum is weakening.

sobata416

the S&P 500 and crude oil were highly correlated between October 8th and October 17th. Since the 17th, their prices have diverged. So who's right? the SPX? (risk on). or oil? (risk off).

sobata416

a downwave that's identical in size to the 2014-02-26 to 2014-05-09 fall would take Tesla to ~$203 by 2014-11-14.

sobata416

the SPX is now testing the August 2014 lows - it's do or die time.

sobata416

Best performer = National Bank Worst performer = Scotiabank

sobata416

Caterpillar just broke down through its 200 day moving average for the first time since January. Last time was a buying opportunity... ...Is this time different? The daily Williams %R remains below -20; this indicates negative pressure. If $CAT can't hold above ~$98 then it could fall to $92.19 and then ~$90.

sobata416

$EPI: a 50% retracement of the 2014-02-03 to 2014-09-08 up wave would put it @ $19.68.

sobata416

a downwave that's identical in size to the 2012-04-23 to 2012-12-24 drop (red arrow #1) would take Herbalife's stock down to ~$36.

sobata416

full disclosure: I'm long the Dec19'14 puts @ $50 both the 13 (blue) and 34 (pink) Bollinger Bands have flattened out. the 50 day MA is rising and the 200 day MA is relatively unchanged since late June. the daily Williams %R is at -70; this indicates that pressure might turn negative. based on these observations, $EWZ could see more losses in the near...

sobata416

both the 13 (blue) and 34 (pink) Bollinger Bands are rising. the 50 day MA (green) crossed up through the 200 day MA (red) in late July (gold vertical line); both MAs are now moving up. the daily Williams %R is above -20 (see bottom panel); this indicates positive pressure. based on these observations, $CHL could see more gains in the near term. upside levels...

sobata416

A move up through $1434 (green horizontal line) could take us to $1570, $1790, $1920, and beyond...

sobata416

I'm in the November 21, 2014 puts @ $105.

sobata416

$MCD has been trading mostly sideways since the beginning of 2012. the monthly W%R appears to be rolling over which could mean negative short-medium term pressure on the stock. since 2008-10-01, McDonald's: price: +108.54% revenues (not shown): +20.8% EBITDA: +41.03% net income: +21.73% but at the same level it was at on 2012-01-02 free cash flow:...

sobata416

J.C. Penney continues to struggle... from 2002-01-01 to the present, revenues fell from ~$32 billion to ~$12 billion... and free cash flow fell from ~$327 million to -$2.15 billion (!!!) furthermore, $JCP is down 90.25% from its peak on 2007-02-01.

sobata416

Apple: +7687% Microsoft: +6893% Intel: +2657% IBM: +691% Hewlett-Packard: -23%

sobata416

the S&P 500 is up 197.54% from the bottom in 2009-03-02. what's more is that the average and median sizes of pullbacks have been decreasing. the S&P hasn't had a 10+% correction since early-mid 2012.

sobata416

Intel has broken out to the upside... if it continues to run then the next levels to watch are $35.67 and then $38.15 the monthly W%R has been rising since 2012-11-01 - this is indicative of positive pressure. $INTC - now vs then: price: where it was on 2003-12-01 EBITDA: where it was on 2010-06-01 Net Income: where it was on 2000-08-01 Free Cash Flow:...