Johnman

Johnman

Employment figures seem to be back on track, and although a June hike is probably out of the question, this could mean the Fed won't be pushing it further back. Average hourly earnings, however, continues to worsen. Bad pay definitely has an effect on consumer spending and ultimately inflation, and this might worry investors. The question is, will it worry the...

Johnman

Despite the latest developments from the Fed, it is undeniable the Euro area is carrying a tremendous weight on its shoulders that can only get greater, and while a period of uncertainty is very possible, believing in an extended rally would be to look at the situation one-sidedly. QE has just started and the outlook remains bearish, although it will surely get...

Johnman

Price action seems to be headed for support at 1.50680 after testing the top of the channel/wedge. Good risk/reward ratio on this one. Fundamentals support this move since the possibility of a UK rate hike anytime soon is now gone. Retail Sales is expected worse and the outlook on USD is positive.

Johnman

By looking at recent data and press releases we can reach the conclusion the market tends to shrug off bad US data (also downplayed by the Fed as of late) and is very sensitive to bad inflation data from the UK. By looking at the calendar for the next days we spot an opportunity for a short. There should be no reason for price to go above the resistance a zone...

Johnman

KEY EVENTS • Tue Jan 20: NZD GDT Price Index (expected 3.6%) • Tue Jan 20: NZD CPI q/q (expected 0.0%) • Thu Jan 22: ECB Press Conference (QE priced in at about €500bn – €750bn) The Euro is currently awaiting the ECB press conference and will likely stay quiet until then barring any major unexpected news. In the meantime, worse than expected data from New Zealand...

Johnman

This week's BoJ policy meeting will help nudge the Yen, while recent good AUD data has created a demand zone for the Aussie. This has not been consolidated yet, and we will have to see whether the economy favours AUD going forward. This pair is not a safe bet in any case. Due to USD strength, it is not a matter of going long or short, but of deciding when to...

Johnman

With the ECB moving towards QE at a steady pace and the Fed confidently set on a rate hike around June (for now) despite recent soft data, EURUSD have been a safe thing for quite some time now. The moment of truth is near. This week the ECB will meet and we will start to see concrete plans moving forward. Should the market get the QE it has been waiting for, we...

Johnman

The ECB reassured the markets last week that they are going to keep the pressure on low inflation. They said nothing else matters to them. It's not surprised that this, combined with a strengthened dollar would make the Euro dive. We are right now at a key position, and this week may be representative of the future path of the Euro this month. Looks like we are...

Johnman

After the ECB announced they continue to intend to make inflation increase, and although they didn't really push the issue further, signs of recovery from the US were enough to push and keep the Euro down. The next couple of weeks will be light in news for the most popular forex pair. We will see movement come unemployment claims next week, but nothing really...

Johnman

With the dollar continuing its slow recovery, the ECB's stance on policy will be essential to determine the bearing of this pair. A softer ECB could send EUR/USD into a range or even an uptrend, as apparently the market wants QE or similar measures. Some say the Mario Draghi will disappoint the markets tomorrow and we could visit 1.3700 once more. However, were...

Johnman

This pair has reached an interesting point on the daily charts. There are a number of possible scenarios from the technical point of view, and it's very possible the data in the coming hours and days will help realize one of them. Construction PMI for the GBP comes in little more than an hour. It's expected to come a little lower than last month, and could have a...