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Crime forecasting

Someone holds a gun in front of a graph showing a decline | Illustration: Eddie Marshall | Anastassia Anufrieva | Markus Spiske | Unsplash

Crime

Could 2025 See the Lowest Murder Rate Ever Recorded?

While it's too early to say for sure, the data are extremely encouraging.

Billy Binion | 5.27.2025 7:00 AM

Trump | Michael Le Brecht II/ZUMA Press/Newscom

Donald Trump

At the Presidential Debate, Trump Again Falsely Claimed Crime Is Rising

Violent crime dropped in 2023 and appears to be on track for another large decline this year.

C.J. Ciaramella | 9.10.2024 10:36 PM

California Gov. Gavin Newsom, in front of a bank of surveillance monitors. | Illustration: Lex Villena, Luiz Rampelotto/ZUMAPRESS/Newscom

Crime

In California and Elsewhere, Fear of Crime Drives the Surveillance State

Concerns about public safety will eventually recede, but Big Brother will still be watching.

J.D. Tuccille | 4.5.2024 7:00 AM

Just Asking Questions background with a headshot of Peter Moskos and the words "What does good policing look like?" in black | Illustration: Lex Villena

Just Asking Questions

Peter Moskos: What Does Good Policing Look Like?

Peter Moskos, criminal justice professor and former Baltimore police officer, discusses ways to reform policing and turn failing cities around on the latest Just Asking Questions podcast.

Liz Wolfe and Zach Weissmueller | 3.21.2024 12:45 PM

A digital sign in Miami Beach reading NO LOUD MUSIC | MEGA/Newscom/FRIDA/Newscom

Florida

Miami Beach's Breakup With Spring Breakers May Fare Poorly for the City

Efforts to revamp the tourist hot spot ignore the reality for local business owners.

Varad Raigaonkar | 3.14.2024 5:01 PM

Sen. Ron Wyden (D–Ore.) speaks in the U.S. Capitol | Annabelle Gordon - CNP/CNP / Polaris/Newscom

Police

Lawmakers Want Pause on Federal Funds for Predictive Policing

The dangers inherent in targeting criminals-to-be have yet to be addressed.

J.D. Tuccille | 2.21.2024 7:00 AM

Murder

New Statistical Evidence Supports the "Minneapolis Effect" as an Explanation for Increases in Homicides

A recently published statistical analysis of homicide rates in New York City finds strong support for the hypothesis that de-policing resulting from the George Floyd protests caused the 2020 homicide spikes.

Paul Cassell |The Volokh Conspiracy | 7.17.2023 8:15 AM

neon question mark surrounded by graffiiti | Photo by <a href="https://unsplash.com/@emilymorter?utm_source=unsplash&utm_medium=referral&utm_content=creditCopyText">Emily Morter</a> on <a href="https://unsplash.com/?utm_source=unsplash&utm_medium=referral&utm_content=creditCopyText">Unsplash</a>

Criminal Justice

Did Murders Rise in 2021? No One Knows.

Plus: Court says DACA is illegal, Colorado baker appeals gender transition cake ruling, and more...

Elizabeth Nolan Brown | 10.6.2022 9:46 AM

zumaamericastwentyfour779118 | Erik Mcgregor/ZUMA Press/Newscom

Murder

We Don't Know Why Murder Rates Spiked in 2020

It's bad public policy to leap to the conclusion that we do.

Brian Doherty | 12.30.2021 1:37 PM

bailbonds_1161x653 | Jonathan Weiss / Dreamstime.com

Bail

Chicago Judge Says His Bail Reforms Were a Success. But Independent Reviews Show Flaws and More Crimes.

Did Cook County overdo it and let too many dangerous defendants free?

Scott Shackford | 2.20.2020 3:10 PM

Large image on homepages | Elnur / Dreamstime.com

Bail

New Jersey Is Keeping More and More People Out of Jail, and That's Great

New Jersey is detaining almost half as many people pretrial, and the state is not seeing a big crime wave.

Scott Shackford | 4.3.2019 3:00 PM

Large image on homepages | ©La Fabrika Pixel S.l./Dreamstime.com

Artificial Intelligence

Welcoming Our New Algorithmic Overlords?

Algocracy and its effect on government decision making

Ronald Bailey | 10.1.2016 12:00 PM

Large image on homepages

Crime forecasting

Department of Pre-Crime Is Becoming a Reality

Civil liberties and the pitfalls of predictive policing

Ronald Bailey | 3.9.2016 5:08 PM

Large image on homepages

Science & Technology

A Surveillance State Doesn't Have To Be a Police State

Is it time to crowdsource law enforcement?

Greg Beato | 11.18.2015 10:00 AM

Large image on homepages | Credit: ElDavo / photo on flickr

Civil Liberties

D.C. Cops Conducting FBI-Like Stings to Arrest People They Predetermine as 'Bad Guys'

Paul Best | 7.24.2014 10:45 AM

Science & Technology

Rape: The Real Menace Of Climate Change?

Ronald Bailey | 2.28.2014 12:02 PM

Politics

Eric Holder Calls George Zimmerman's Shooting of Trayvon Martin 'Unnecessary'

Jacob Sullum | 7.15.2013 3:33 PM

Civil Liberties

What Will We Get From Analyzing Adam Lanza's DNA?

Brian Doherty | 12.28.2012 3:01 PM

Crime

Violent Crime Rate Continues Two Decade Fall, Says FBI

Ronald Bailey | 10.30.2012 2:19 PM

Civil Liberties

Report: Violent Crime Jumped in US

Contradicts previous figures

Reason Staff | 10.17.2012 8:00 PM

Policy

East St. Louis Mayor All But Overrules Bill of Rights to Fight Crime

Citywide dress code would forbid men from wearing red or blue

Reason Staff | 9.28.2012 10:08 PM

Policy

Defining Deviancy Downwards: FBI Identifies Insane Clown Posse Fans as Criminal Gang

Nick Gillespie | 9.28.2012 10:54 AM

Policy

Three More Plead Guilty in Ohio Bridge Bombing Plot

It was an FBI sting operation

Reason Staff | 9.6.2012 11:30 AM

Politics

Stopping Crime Before It Starts

Predictive policing helps police protect citizens. It could also be used to oppress them.

Ronald Bailey | 7.10.2012 5:00 PM

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