Showing posts with label Productivity. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Productivity. Show all posts

Friday, 13 June 2025

Less with more

 The OECD measured New Zealand's recent productivity growth against the OECD average.

We're not even average.

... aaaand here, by comparison, is New Zealand's growth in employment:

That's the measure of how many more folk it took to do that little bit more.

So we've had decent growth.

Just not in productivity.

Is this a measure of how much we're restrained here by regulation and the incessant whine of the grey ones in our ear?

A lack of capital?

Or is it something wrong with our nous?

What do you think ... ?

[Hat tip Eric Crampton]

* Yep, construction is an outlier. I'm not sure how productivity is measured here, but I imagine that's a reflection of how many more townhouses and apartments have been built in recent years, as opposed to stand-alone dwellings.

Friday, 30 May 2025

"New Zealand’s low wages can be blamed on low productivity, and low productivity can be blamed on poor regulation."

"New Zealand’s low wages can be blamed on low productivity, and low productivity can be blamed on poor regulation. To raise productivity, we must allow people to spend more time on productive activities and less time on compliance. ...
    "In a nutshell: If red tape is holding us back, because politicians find regulating politically rewarding, then we need to make regulating less rewarding for politicians ... "

~ David Seymour from his press release ' Bill for transparent principled lawmaking to be read in the House'

Saturday, 22 March 2025

University education has an entirely undeserved higher status than industry training

"Nearly twice as many New Zealand school leavers fall into unemployment as undertake workplace-based learning. ...
    "In Germany, approximately half of all school leavers participate in the country’s ‘dual training’ apprenticeship system. In contrast, in New Zealand, only 6% of school leavers undertake workplace-based training ...
    "This represents a significant waste of human capital and opportunity, especially considering that industry training leads to many high-demand vocations.
    "The root of the problem is cultural. University education has higher status [entirely undeserved - Ed] than industry training among parents, schools, teachers, and students themselves.
    "The status disparity is exacerbated by the strong orientation of schools toward university preparation as the default setting. ...
    "If clearer pathways from school to industry training were established as a serious option for all students, esteem for industry training would gradually improve."
~ Michael Johnston from his report 'Trade Routes: Charting New Pathways from Secondary School to Industry Training'. Listen here to a podcast with Johnston discussing the report.

Monday, 24 February 2025

"The PM is right about the problem of our negative and utterly risk-averse culture. But changing our bureaucratic culture requires more than speeches."


"Prime Minister Christopher Luxon says he wants a bureaucracy that says 'yes.' He is right to want that of course, but a lot of current rules would need to change. ...
    "New Zealand’s regulatory culture of “no” has become so pervasive that even the simplest reforms now spark fierce resistance. ... This reflexive negativity illustrates a deeper problem. New Zealand’s economy is being strangled by excessive caution and regulatory overkill.

    "Some numbers are telling. Property developers now spend $1.29 billion annually navigating consent processes. ...
    "The Port of Tauranga’s expansion would boost exports for forestry, kiwifruit and dairy. Yet bureaucratic delays have stalled the project for years. Eden Park operates under council-imposed event caps while New Zealanders fly to Australia for concerts in packed stadiums.
    "Even our tax system seems designed to say 'no.' When businesses invest in new machinery to boost productivity, New Zealand’s depreciation provisions are among the most restrictive in the OECD. ....
    "Similar patterns emerge in construction. .... The building code and certification process favour established products and make it slow and expensive for new or imported products to gain approval. Even common materials used safely for years in Australia or Europe face lengthy and costly verification processes here. The result is higher costs for builders and homeowners alike.
    "Meanwhile, the banking sector faces its own regulatory headwinds. ...

"Reform need not be complex. Sometimes it simply means removing bureaucratic obstacles. Trust regulators in other developed countries rather than retesting everything here. ... But ... every change, no matter how sensible, must overcome a chorus of imagined risks and hypothetical problems. ... 
    "Those objecting to developments need to be confronted with the lost value to the community of getting their way.
    "The Prime Minister is right about the problem of our negative and utterly risk-averse culture. But changing our bureaucratic culture requires more than speeches. It demands sustained effort to identify and eliminate unnecessary rules, requirements and restrictions. ...
    "The alternative is continued decline."

Wednesday, 19 February 2025

"In the Minister’s words, 'Going For Growth outlines the approach the Government is taking to turbo-charge our economy.' Yeah right.


 

"The Minister [of Finance] also used her speech to announce the launch of a Going for Growth website complete with a 44 page document (15 of which are photos and covers, and another 9 are lists of things (being) done) titled 'Going for Growth: Unlocking New Zealand’s Potential' – in the Minister’s words, 'Going For Growth outlines the approach the Government is taking to turbo-charge our economy.'
    
"Yeah right.

"Now, to be clear, there are some (mostly small) useful things the government has done in the area of economic policy. There are also some (fewer in number) overtly backward steps ... and some important areas where the government has so far failed to act at all .... There is [however] just nothing in what the Minister said, or in what the government has done (or has concretely indicated it will shortly do), that comes even close to being likely to 'turbo charge' the economy.

"It isn’t even clear that either the Minister or her Treasury advisers has anything close to a compelling model and narrative about how we got into the longer-term productivity mess, let alone how we might successfully get out of it (if any politicians really cared enough to want to do so).

"We are told ... that 'Leaders around the world are being compelled to act more boldly than they have for several decades.' But there isn’t much sign of it ..."

"We are told that 'New Zealand’s low capital intensity is a key driver ... of our poor productivity performance.' No one disputes that business investment as a share of GDP has been low in New Zealand for a long time ... So the capital stock per worker is, in some mechanical sense, quite low. ...

"But ... the mentality is all wrong. Low levels of capital intensity are at best seen as symptom not as any sort of cause or 'driver' of productivity growth failures economywide. New Zealand has never had a particularly problem attracting finance ... And we should assume that, on average, firms and potential investors are responding rationally, and even optimally on average, to the opportunities they face.

"So the issue is not that firms are failing to use enough capital in their production processes – they are most likely doing what is best for them – but that, having regard to all the other constraints (taxes, FDI rules, RMA regimes, other bits of regulation, real exchange rates) there just aren’t that many attractive projects here in New Zealand. A highly successful New Zealand economy would be likely to be more capital intensive (and generate higher wages), but focusing on the capital intensity or otherwise is the wrong lens with which to look at the problem.

"Firms and investors respond to opportunities, and sometimes (often) governments get in the road and make investment ... unattractive."


~ Michael Reddell from his post 'Willis and Rennie speaking'

Thursday, 17 October 2024

"Though it's tempting to [always] blame the government for getting in the way of business, there's a lot about Kiwi business that is about getting in the way of itself."


"[T]hough it's tempting to [always] blame the government for getting in the way of business, there's a lot about Kiwi business that is about getting in the way of itself. ... The Mood of the Boardroom Survey & recent remarks by some of this nation's CEOs reflect on the (dubious) quality of New Zealand's boardrooms more than anything else. Namely that most are woke & weak. ...
    "NZ's Big Corporate CEOs will not themselves push productivity-enhancing reforms in their own firms ... They'd prefer, instead, to be Mr Nice Person. Look at the qualifications of many of them - the typical one being in Accounting. Other than that, its law. Lawyers often get on Boards because Kiwi firms want someone to help with compliance - not a person with imagination about where the future of the company should be. ...
    "Before the Productivity Commission was de-commissioned, it identified lack of 'managerial capability' as a contributor to our low productivity. ... Many of our CEOs & Boardrooms are not capable. ... The staff can't make up for a boss who is the wrong boss. ... "

Monday, 30 September 2024

Ludwig von Mises: Capitalism's great defender



When Ludwig von Mises appeared on the economic scene, Marxism and the other socialist sects enjoyed a virtual intellectual monopoly — there was virtually no systematic intellectual opposition to socialism or defence of capitalism. Quite literally, the intellectual ramparts of civilization were undefended. What von Mises undertook, and which summarises the essence of his greatness, was to build an intellectual defence of capitalism and thus of civilisation.
On the 100th anniversary of his birth in 1881, his student George Reisman penned this tribute to one of capitalism's greatest defenders. . .

A Tribute to Ludwig von Mises on the Anniversary of his Birth

by George Reisman

September 29, 2024, is the one-hundred-and-forty-third anniversary of the birth of Ludwig von Mises, economist and social philosopher, who passed away in 1973. Von Mises was my teacher and mentor and the source or inspiration for most of what I know and consider to be important and worthwhile in these fields of what enables me to understand the events shaping the world in which we live. I want to take this opportunity to pay tribute to him, because I believe that he deserves to occupy a major place in the intellectual history of the twentieth century.

Von Mises is important because his teachings are necessary to the preservation of material civilization. As he showed, the base of material civilisation is the division of labour. Without the higher productivity of labour made possible by the division of labour, the great majority of mankind would simply die of starvation. The existence and successful functioning of the division of labour, however, vitally depends on the institutions of a capitalist society — that is, on limited government and economic freedom; on private ownership of land and all other property; on exchange and money; on saving and investment; on economic inequality and economic competition; and on the profit motive that institutions everywhere under attack for several generations.

When von Mises appeared on the scene, Marxism and the other socialist sects enjoyed a virtual intellectual monopoly. Major flaws and inconsistencies in the writings of Adam Smith and Ricardo and their followers enabled the socialists to claim classical economics as their actual ally. The writings of Jevons and the earlier Austrian economists Menger and Böhm-Bawerk were insufficiently comprehensive to provide an effective counter to the socialists. Bastiat had tried to provide one, but died too soon, and probably lacked the necessary theoretical depth in any case.

Thus, when von Mises appeared, there was virtually no systematic intellectual opposition to socialism or defense of capitalism. Quite literally, the intellectual ramparts of civilisation were undefended. What von Mises undertook, and which summarises the essence of his greatness, was to build an intellectual defence of capitalism and thus of civilisation.

Capitalism operates to the material self-interests of all

THE LEADING ARGUMENT OF the socialists was that the institutions of capitalism served the interests merely of a handful of rugged exploiters and monopolists, and operated against the interests of the great majority of mankind, which socialism would serve. While the only answer others could give was to devise plans to take away somewhat less of the capitalists’ wealth than the socialists were demanding, or to urge that property rights nevertheless be respected despite their incompatibility with most people’s well-being, von Mises challenged everyone’s basic assumption. He showed that capitalism operates to the material self-interests of all, including the non-capitalists the so-called proletarians. In a capitalist society, von Mises showed, privately-owned means of production serve the market. The physical beneficiaries of the factories and mills therefore are all who buy their products. And, together with the incentive of profit and loss, and the freedom of competition that it implies, the existence of private ownership ensures an ever-growing supply of products for all.

Thus, von Mises showed to be absolute nonsense such clichés as poverty causes communism. Not poverty, but poverty plus the mistaken belief that communism is the cure for poverty, causes communism. If the misguided revolutionaries of the backward countries and of impoverished slums understood economics, any desire they might have to fight poverty would make them advocates of capitalism.

Socialism means chaos

Socialism, von Mises showed, in his greatest original contribution to economic thought, not only abolishes the incentive of profit and loss and the freedom of competition along with private ownership of the means of production, but makes economic calculation, economic coordination, and economic planning impossible, and therefore results in chaos — because socialism means the abolition of the price system and the intellectual division of labour; it means the concentration and centralisation of all decision-making in the hands of one agency: the Central Planning Board or the Supreme Dictator.

Yet the planning of an economic system is beyond the power of any one consciousness: the number, variety and locations of the different factors of production, the various technological possibilities that are open to them, and the different possible permutations and combinations of what might be produced from them, are far beyond the power even of the greatest genius to keep in mind. Economic planning, von Mises showed, requires the cooperation of all who participate in the economic system. It can exist only under capitalism, where, every day, businessmen plan on the basis of calculations of profit and loss; workers, on the basis of wages; and consumers, on the basis of the prices of consumers’ goods.

Von Mises’s contributions to the debate between capitalism and socialism the leading issue of modern times are overwhelming. Before he wrote, people did not realise that capitalism has economic planning. They uncritically accepted the Marxian dogma that capitalism is an anarchy of production and that socialism represents rational economic planning. People were (and most still are) in the position of Moliere’s M. Jourdan, who never realized that what he was speaking all his life was prose. For, living in a capitalist society, people are literally surrounded by economic planning, and yet do not realise that it exists. Every day, there are countless businessmen who are planning to expand or contract their firms, who are planning to introduce new products or discontinue old ones, planning to open new branches or close down existing ones, planning to change their methods of production or continue with their present methods, planning to hire additional workers or let some of their present ones go. And every day, there are countless workers planning to improve their skills, change their occupations or places of work, or to continue with things as they are; and consumers, planning to buy homes, cars, stereos, steak or hamburger, and how to use the goods they already have for example, to drive to work or to take the train, instead.

Yet people deny the name planning to all this activity and reserve it for the feeble efforts of a handful of government officials, who, having prohibited the planning of everyone else, presume to substitute their knowledge and intelligence for the knowledge and intelligence of tens of millions. Von Mises identified the existence of planning under capitalism, the fact that it is based on prices ( economic calculations ), and the fact that the prices serve to coordinate and harmonise the activities of all the millions of separate, independent planners.

He showed that each individual, in being concerned with earning a revenue or income and with limiting his expenses, is led to adjust his particular plans to the plans of all others. For example, the worker who decides to become an accountant rather than an artist, because he values the higher income to be made as an accountant, changes his career plan in response to the plans of others to purchase accounting services rather than paintings. The individual who decides that a house in a particular neighborhood is too expensive and who therefore gives up his plan to live in that neighborhood, is similarly engaged in a process of adjusting his plans to the plans of others; because what makes the house too expensive is the plans of others to buy it who are able and willing to pay more. And, above all, von Mises showed, every business, in seeking to make profits and avoid losses, is led to plan its activities in a way that not only serves the plans of its own customers, but takes into account the plans of all other users of the same factors of production throughout the economic system.

Thus, von Mises demonstrated that capitalism is an economic system rationally planned by the combined, self-interested efforts of all who participate in it. The failure of socialism, he showed, results from the fact that it represents not economic planning, but the destruction of economic planning, which exists only under capitalism and the price system.

Competition under capitalism is of an entirely different character than competition in the animal kingdom

VON MISES WAS NOT primarily anti-socialist. He was pro-capitalist. His opposition to socialism, and to all forms of government intervention, stemmed from his support for capitalism and from his underlying love of individual freedom, and his conviction that the self-interests of free men are harmonious indeed, that one man’s gain under capitalism is not only not another’s loss, but is actually others’ gain. Von Mises was a consistent champion of the self-made man, of the intellectual and business pioneer, whose activities are the source of progress for all mankind and who, he showed, can flourish only under capitalism.

Von Mises demonstrated that competition under capitalism is of an entirely different character than competition in the animal kingdom. It is not a competition for scarce, nature-given means of subsistence, but a competition in the positive creation of new and additional wealth, from which all gain. For example, the effect of the competition between farmers using horses and those using tractors was not that the former group died of starvation, but that everyone had more food and the income available to purchase additional quantities of other goods as well. This was true even of the farmers who lost the competition, as soon as they relocated in other areas of the economic system, which were enabled to expand precisely by virtue of the improvements in agriculture. Similarly, the effect of the automobile’s supplanting the horse and buggy was to benefit even the former horse breeders and blacksmiths, once they made the necessary relocations.

In a major elaboration of Ricardo’s Law of Comparative Advantage, von Mises showed that there is room for all in the competition of capitalism, even those of the most modest abilities. Such people need only concentrate on the areas in which their relative productive inferiority is least. For example, an individual capable of being no more than a janitor does not have to fear the competition of the rest of society, almost all of whose members could be better janitors than he, if that is what they chose to be. Because however much better janitors other people might make, their advantage in other lines is even greater. And so long as the person of limited ability is willing to work for less as a janitor than other people can earn in other lines, he has nothing to worry about from their competition. He, in fact, outcompetes them for the job of janitor by being willing to accept a lower income than they. Von Mises showed that a harmony of interests prevails in this case, too. For the existence of the janitor enables more talented people to devote their time to more demanding tasks, while their existence enables him to obtain goods and services that would otherwise be altogether impossible for him to obtain.

He showed that the foundation of world peace is a policy of laissez-faire both domestically and internationally

ON THE BASIS OF such facts, von Mises argued against the possibility of inherent conflicts of interest among races and nations, as well as among individuals. For even if some races or nations were superior (or inferior) to others in every aspect of productive ability, mutual cooperation in the division of labour would still be advantageous to all. Thus, he showed that all doctrines alleging inherent conflicts rest on an ignorance of economics.

He argued with unanswerable logic that the economic causes of war are the result of government interference, in the form of trade and migration barriers, and that such interference restricting foreign economic relations is the product of other government interference, restricting domestic economic activity. For example, tariffs become necessary as a means of preventing unemployment only because of the existence of minimum wage laws and pro-union legislation, which prevent the domestic labor force from meeting foreign competition by means of the acceptance of lower wages when necessary. He showed that the foundation of world peace is a policy of laissez-faire both domestically and internationally.

In answer to the vicious and widely believed accusation of the Marxists that Nazism was an expression of capitalism, he showed, in addition to all the above, that Nazism was actually a form of socialism. Any system characterised by price and wage controls, and thus by shortages and government controls over production and distribution, as was Nazism, is a system in which the government is the de-facto owner of the means of production. Because, in such circumstances, the government decides not only the prices and wages charged and paid, but also what is to be produced, in what quantities, by what methods, and where it is to be sent. These are all the fundamental prerogatives of ownership. This identification of socialism on the German pattern, as he called it, is of immense value in understanding the nature of present demands for price controls.

Von Mises showed that all of the accusations made against capitalism were either altogether unfounded or should be directed against government intervention

VON MISES SHOWED THAT all of the accusations made against capitalism were either altogether unfounded or should be directed against government intervention, which destroys the workings of capitalism. He was among the first to point out that the poverty of the early years of the Industrial Revolution was the heritage of all previous history that it existed because the productivity of labour was still pitifully low; because scientists, inventors, businessmen, savers and investors could only step by step create the advances and accumulate the capital necessary to raise it. He showed that all the policies of so-called labour and social legislation were actually contrary to the interests of the masses of workers they were designed to help — that their effect was to cause unemployment, retard capital accumulation, and thus hold down the productivity of labour and the standard of living of all. 

In yet another major original contribution to economic thought, he showed that depressions were the result of government-sponsored policies of credit expansion designed to lower the market rate of interest. Such policies, he showed, created large-scale malinvestments, which deprived the economic system of liquid capital and brought on credit contractions and thus depressions. Von Mises was a leading supporter of the gold standard and of laissez-faire in banking, which, he believed, would virtually achieve a 100% reserve gold standard and thus make impossible both inflation and deflation.

I do not believe that anyone can claim to be really educated who has not absorbed a substantial measure of the immense wisdom present in his works

WHAT I HAVE WRITTEN of von Mises provides only the barest indication of the intellectual content that is to be found in his writings. He authored over a dozen volumes. And I venture to say that I cannot recall reading a single paragraph in any of them that did not contain one or more profound thoughts or observations. Even on the occasions when I found it necessary to disagree with him (for example, on his view that monopoly can exist under capitalism, his advocacy of the military draft, and certain aspects of his views on epistemology, the nature of value judgments, and the proper starting point for economics), I always found what he had to say to be extremely valuable and a powerful stimulus to my own thinking. I do not believe that anyone can claim to be really educated who has not absorbed a substantial measure of the immense wisdom present in his works.

Von Mises’s two most important books are Human Action and Socialism, which best represents the breadth and depth of his thought. These are not for beginners, however. They should be preceded by some of von Mises’s popular writings, such as Bureaucracy and Planning For Freedom.

The Theory of Money and Credit, Theory and History, Epistemological Problems of Economics, and The Ultimate Foundations of Economic Science are more specialised works that should probably be read only after Human Action. Von Mises’s other popular writings in English include Omnipotent Government, The Anti-Capitalistic Mentality, Liberalism, Critique of Interventionism, Economic Policy, and The Historical Setting of the Austrian School of Economics. For anyone seriously interested in economics, social philosophy, or modern history, the entire list should be considered required reading. [All titles of von Mises currently in print can be ordered on this web site, or downloaded free here.]

Courage

VON MISES MUST BE JUDGED not only as a remarkably brilliant thinker but also as a remarkably courageous human being. He held the truth of his convictions above all else and was prepared to stand alone in their defence. He cared nothing for personal fame, position, or financial gain, if it meant having to purchase them at the sacrifice of principle. In his lifetime, he was shunned and ignored by the intellectual establishment, because the truth of his views and the sincerity and power with which he advanced them shattered the tissues of fallacies and lies on which most intellectuals then built, and even now continue to build, their professional careers.

It was my great privilege to have known von Mises personally over a period of twenty years. I met him for the first time when I was sixteen years old. Because he recognised the seriousness of my interest in economics, he invited me to attend his graduate seminar at New York University, which I did almost every week thereafter for the next seven years, stopping only when the start of my own teaching career made it no longer possible for me to continue in regular attendance.

His seminar, like his writings, was characterised by the highest level of scholarship and erudition, and always by the most profound respect for ideas. Von Mises was never concerned with the personal motivation or character of an author, but only with the question of whether the man’s ideas were true or false. In the same way, his personal manner was at all times highly respectful, reserved, and a source of friendly encouragement. He constantly strove to bring out the best in his students. This, combined with his stress on the importance of knowing foreign languages, led in my own case to using some of my time in college to learn German and then to undertaking the translation of his Epistemological Problems of Economics, something that has always been one of my proudest accomplishments.

Today, von Mises’s ideas at long last appear to be gaining in influence. His teachings about the nature of socialism have been confirmed in the first-hand observations of honest news reporters with extensive experience in Soviet Russia, such as Robert Kaiser, Hedrick Smith, John Dornberg, and Henry Kamm. They are being confirmed at this very moment by the actions of millions of angry workers in Poland.

Some of von Mises’s ideas are being propounded by the Nobel prizewinners F.A. Hayek (himself a former student of von Mises) and Milton Friedman. They exert a major influence on the writings of Henry Hazlitt and the staff of the Foundation for Economic Education, as well as such prominent former students as Hans Sennholz. Von Mises’s monetary theories permeate the pages of recent best-selling books on personal investments, such as those by Harry Browne and Jerome Smith. And last, but certainly not least, they appear to be exerting an important influence on the present President of the United States [Ronald Reagan], who has acknowledged reading Human Action and has expressed his admiration for it.

Von Mises’s books deserve to be required reading in every college and university curriculum not just in departments of economics, but also in departments of philosophy, history, government, sociology, law, business, journalism, education, and the humanities. He himself should be awarded an immediate posthumous Nobel Prize indeed, more than one. He deserves to receive every token of recognition and memorial that our society can bestow. For as much as anyone in history, he laboured to preserve it. If he is widely enough read, his labours may actually succeed in helping to save it.

* * * * 

Economist George Reisman was a student of Ludwig Von Mises, Pepperdine University Professor Emeritus of Economics, and the author of Government Against the Economy and Capitalism: An Economic Treatise [free download here, or buy it here or here]. His blog is here, his website here, and all his publications here. This essay originally appeared in 1981, on the occasion of Mises’s one-hundredth birthday, and appeared recently at the Mises Institute blog.

Wednesday, 25 September 2024

We're just not very productive ...

 ... or maybe we're short of capital, and over-endowed with regulation?

If there is one graph that symbolises the relative economic decline of NZ [says Robert MacCulloch], then I believe it is the one below. It measures NZ GDP per capita from 1990 to 2022, and compares it with all other nations in our Asia-Pacific region. ...


The scale is logarithmic for a reason. It gives you a measure of the percentage increases in GDP per capita in NZ compared to other nations. Every single year over this 35 year period, as far I can see from eye-balling the graph, with the exception of 1998-99, NZ's percentage rise in GDP per capita has been way lower than the average. When I was in my 20s in the 1990s, NZ's GDP per capita was about 6 times the average in the Asia-Pacific region. As of 2024, our GDP per capita is only about 2 times the Asia-Pacific average. Give it another decade or two, and there won't be much difference - the rest of Asia will be richer than us.

 

Monday, 12 August 2024

Productivity. In medals, at least.

 

Economist Robert MacCulloch notes that New Zealand's productivity growth, as measured in Olympic medals, is astonishing.

In the 1924 Paris Olympics, New Zealand won one bronze medal in total. It was in athletics for the 100m by Arthur Porritt. The race was later immortalised in the film, 'Chariots of Fire.' NZ had a population of around 1 million back then. Just over 100 years later, the tally is 10 golds, 7 silvers and 3 bronzes*, which after adjusting for population increase, is a huge rise. Meanwhile the United States won 45 Golds at the 1924 Paris Olympics, a tally which has plummeted down to around 37 at the Paris 2024 Olympics. So productivity in this sphere in New Zealand, compared to other countries, is phenomenal.

As you're probably aware, for all sorts of reasons New Zealand is shit at economic productivity. 


So why the difference?

On this MacCulloch suggests the reason for this is simple: In sports, unlike elsewhere, New Zealanders value meritocracy "where the fastest, highest, longest .. the best .. wins, regardless of other considerations?"

Kiwis clearly respond to merit being rewarded and produce amongst the finest output in the world when it is. Meanwhile in many other spheres in NZ, everything but meritocracy is winning the day. And productivity is paying the price.

In microcosm, he's probably right. And it's great to see these athletes triumph.

Mind you,  if I were to carp — and I will, even if it's a mite too soon — I can't help wondering how much taxpayers and ratepayers are dunned for all this nationalistic gold. You know, how many millions it's cost taxpayers per medal.

Consider, Arthur Porritt paid his own way to Paris in 1924. So that was zero-taxpayer-dollars** per gold then. And now? Well, I'd like someone somewhere to do the calculation ...


* I've updated the totals.

** Yes, it was pounds then. But using that there would be too confusing.

Thursday, 16 May 2024

" The 'vision' seems to be to catch Australia. Wouldn’t that be great?"


"[T]he Prime Minister announce[d] a bold new economic performance goal. ... His 'vision' seems to be that economic growth in New Zealand over the next 16 years will be so strong that we’ll have matched – perhaps even exceeded – what is on offer abroad. .... The 'vision' seems to be to catch Australia.
    "Wouldn’t that be great? ...
    "[Luxon] ... reminded us of his firm focus ('resolutely and unapologetically') on 'delivery.'
"So having set out a bold vision what is the Prime Minister offering as a policy programme to achieve it? It isn’t, after all, a small ambition. ...
    "The Prime Minister does lay out some substance on the [first-hundred] days [etc.] ... but to a first approximation what it mostly does is undo stuff the previous government did and restore something like the policy set of 2017. ... [but] we weren’t making any progress then either in closing gaps to the rest of the advanced world ...
    "[I]t is welcome, and sounds good, but…..we’ve heard lines about fixing the RMA before, including from the previous National government.
    "And that was sort of the problem with the entire economic strand of [the PM's] vision. It brought to mind ... [John Key's] 'concrete goal' [in 2008] of closing the income gap with Australia by 2025.' ... [I]t all made no difference whatsoever. ... the goal ... would have greatly benefited New Zealanders had it been seriously pursued. It wasn’t. ...
    "[T]here ha[s] been a lot of talk over the years. ... Who knows if Mr Luxon is any more serious about his 'vision' – laudable on its own terms – than John Key was about the 2025 goal. ... but Key and his government did nothing even close to being equal to the task to make it happen. There seems little basis – whether in [Luxon]’s speech, his campaigning last year, or anything about what his government is and isn’t doing now – for believing it will be any different this time. ...
    "It would be great to be proved wrong on that, because the people who pay the price of empty political aspirational rhetoric never matched by policy seriously equal to the task aren’t Prime Ministers, who eventually move on to gilded retirements, but the children and grandchildren of ordinary New Zealanders.
    "If, as he should be, the Prime Minister is serious about that aspiration of New Zealanders (net) coming home not just because mountains and beaches make it a nice place for many to live, but because economic performance means you don’t have to leave for a higher income, the concrete policies need to start matching the rhetoric.
    "In the PM’s own words, delivery matters."
~ Michael Reddell from his post 'Words and (in)actions'

 

Monday, 13 May 2024

"How did Hipkins, Ardern and Robertson manage to make Kiwis less productive over the six years they were in office?"

 

SOURCE: Productivity figures, NZ Treasury, The blue line comes from
the Treasury's Productivity Slowdown publication released this past
week, which uses updates from the latest Budget Policy Statement 2024.

"How did Hipkins, Ardern and Robertson manage to make Kiwis less productive over the six years they were in office? My suspicion is that they changed our culture. They divided the nation. They turned rich against poor, farmers against environmentalists, pro-vaccinators against anti-vaccinators. Neither of these sides ever deserved to be demonised. Yet that is what the past Labour government did. It took away the largely harmonious nature our society, which was one of NZ's great achievements & which had previously lifted us above the troubles of nearly every other nation. We lost our comparative advantage. Ironically, though 'kindness' was the mantra of the last government, it turned Kiwis mean. It rewarded people who had not put in the effort and did not have the achievements required to make them deserving of high office and top jobs. In doing so, it took away the reward for truly high-achieving NZ children, which made them feel they had to go overseas to be recognised for their talents, or drop-out.
    "My explanation for our currently plummeting productivity lies in a culture shift which has undermined out national unity and taken away the incentives to perform. Ardern, Robertson and Hipkins took away our pride in ourselves."

Friday, 22 March 2024

CNN Is Wrong. "Deflation" Is a Good Thing.

 


This guest post by Soham Patil is for everyone who still thinks that falling prices are a bad thing, and that rising prices are, somehow, good...

CNN Is Wrong. "Deflation" Is a Good Thing.

by Soham Patil

A recent video by CNN states that lower prices are bad for the economy, and that consumers must get used to the newer, higher prices. The video goes so far as to say, “We’re never going to pay 2019 prices again.” The video claims that deflation is responsible for a long list of problems including layoffs, high unemployment, and falling incomes. Americans should simply get used to paying more and more each year, they say, and be happy about it. Except, so-called "deflation" -- falling prices, caused by rising productivity rather than by monetary collapse — is actually good for consumers despite the contentions of inflation-supporting economists.

The conclusion that inflation is a good thing is reached by the mishandling of economic terms. While Austrian economics accepts that "inflation" when used accurately is the expansion of the money supply, mainstream economics contends that inflation is simply an increase in the general price level in an economy however it is caused. This skewed definition allows one to erroneously conclude that inflation causes prosperity by raising profits and incomes through higher consumer prices. The problem with this is that “price inflation” (rising prices) is also often caused by real inflation: i..e, the increase of the money supply. An increase in the money supply comes from the creation of additional units of money. The wealth of savers is diluted by the expansion of the money supply, which leads to the hardships many Americans face.

Further, while the video contends that the pandemic may have caused rising prices, it cannot explain the continual growth of prices even after the effects of the pandemic have subsided. The pandemic is not responsible for the continual trend of increasing prices; the growth of the money supply is.

Figure 1: The M2 in the United States, 1959–2024

While the money supply of US dollars has increased steadily over the past few decades, a significant jump can be seen after 2019 when the Federal Reserve’s expansionary monetary policies caused a great rise in the money supply. This growth, uncompensated by additional production due to the pandemic, caused the price inflation that many now blame solely on the pandemic. The truth is that if the pandemic were the cause of prices rising a significant amount, the absence of the pandemic should account for a proportionally drastic deflationary period afterward. This never occurred, and thus the money supply paints a more honest picture of inflation than any index of a collection of prices ever could.

Rising prices are obviously troublesome for both consumers and producers (everyone faces rising costs). By contrast, deflation (falling prices) is often a good thing. "Deflation" in simple terms simply means that the same unit of money is worth more today than it was yesterday. Consumers thus can buy more today than they could yesterday. Instead of actively being impoverished during conditions of rising prices, during times of gently falling prices consumers would instead be made richer. There are two contrasting ways that we might see falling prices: when productivity increases faster than the money supply (a very good thing), or when the money supply collapses after a failed inflationary boom (almost always a bad thing). Unfortunately, both good and bad are tarred with the same semantic brush.

The reason many economists are quick to champion inflationary booms as somehow creating prosperity is because central banks have previously used expansionary monetary policies to temporarily boost the economy by increasing aggregate demand. Several of these policies, often specifically lowering interest rates, cause a boom-bust cycle. When the money supply is expanded and cheap credit is abundant, firms are able to take on ambitious projects that they may not have been able to previously. Malinvestment results from the unsustainable credit expansion created by extremely low interest rates. There is greater demand for the factors of production, and an increase is seen in conventional metrics of economic growth such as gross domestic product.

During the process of malinvestment, an increase in employment occurs due to the firms having access to cheap and easy credit, allowing for greater business spending. However, when firms lose access to cheap and easy credit due to the central banks having to prioritise cutting inflation, jobs are lost. These job losses are not the fault of the deflation but rather of the malinvestment during the false economic booms. Without malinvestment and inflation, resources would have been invested in more-profitable endeavours, making better use of these resources.

Artificially cheap credit causes a misallocation of resources by skewing price information. Eventually, a bust must follow the boom. In this period, deflation often occurs due to market actors coming to more-realistic valuations of the factors of production. After these realistic valuations come about, consumers are able to pay less for their goods and services . . . at least until the central bank causes the next boom-bust cycle.

In conclusion, it would be wrong to pinpoint deflation as a potential issue for the economy. To do so would be to conflate the cause and effect of how money supply affects an economy. Contrary to CNN’s video, the Federal Reserve throughout its history has not helped the cause of consumers, evidenced by the exponential growth of prices since its foundation.

* * * * 


Soham Patil is a high school senior at Symbiosis International School. He is passionate about Austrian Economics and Philosophy.
 
His post first appeared at the Mises Wire.

Tuesday, 28 November 2023

The New Govt: Long on undoing the last government’s agenda; short on making for a much better future


"[T]HIS WAS SUPPOSED TO BE the government of busting public sector bloat, not simply matching previous excess...
    "First, the ministerial list with its 28 ministers and 2 under secretaries ... And then there all the portfolios: 76 of them by my count (up by five, I think, from the previous government, and 68 in the first Ardern ministry). ... It seems to have become a cheap form of pandering (pure portfolio labels themselves don’t cost much, but over time portfolio labels probably tend to beget activities and expenditure) to almost every conceivable sector and population group.
    "It is almost as if your existence isn’t validated until the government has created a ministerial portfolio that covers you.... None of it speaks of a government that is serious about shrinking the public sector and back-office bloat. The amounts involved of course aren’t individually large, but the pennies add up, and people look to actions at least as much as words....

"THE BIGGER QUESTION ACROSS all these documents ... is to what extent the new government’s programme mostly unwinds some of the bad stuff the previous government did and to what extent it genuinely sets a pathway to a much better future. Whatever you think of the state of things when National left office in 2017 – and at least there wasn’t a fiscal deficit – our average productivity performance was then as poor as ever, business investment lagged that in most OECD countries, and no real progress was being made towards abundant and easily affordable housing. And, for example, the Wellington City Council still wasn’t well-run and was still prioritising ideological vanity projects over basics (water, most notably).
     "There is a long list of stuff in the documents outlining the new government’s programme that I like. ... it is long on things (small and large) undoing the last government’s agenda, most of which I put big ticks next to.
    "But it seems .. short on making for a much better future [even] relative to 2017....
    "Time will tell. ... There is a reasonably encouraging list of things to unwind (although many more things could have been added), but having done the unwinds little in the agreements suggests any sort of full-throated seriousness about actually reversing decades of economic failure or the scandal that is house prices in land-abundant New Zealand. I doubt we will even hear again that stuff about once again being a world economic leader: with such an unambitious forward agenda, and weak policy capability, the gap between rhetoric and reality would quickly just be too sad ... "
~ Michael Reddell from his post 'Reading the documents'

Friday, 20 October 2023

Real Economic Growth Depends on Savings


Pic: Mises Wire

A reminder for everyone, as you all wait patiently for economic miracles from a new government, that while Keynesians claim that the source of economic growth is consumer (and government) spending, so-called Austrian economists such as our guest poster Frank Shostak know that the key to a growing economy is net savings . . .

Real Economic Growth Depends on Savings

by Frank Shostak

New Zealand's consumer confidence index is slowly climbing off the floor from its March low, but only weakly. Meanwhile in the US, their consumer sentiment index fell to 69.5 in August from 71.6 in July. 

What does this portend? A weakening consumer sentiment index is seen as indicating a potential downturn in consumer spending and -- to many economists -- of the economy in general.

Why is this? It's because most mainstream economic commentators agree with each other (and with their mentor, John Maynard Keynes) that the key to economic prosperity is individual consumption rather than saving. Saving, they believe, hinders economic growth because it coincides with weakening demand for consumer goods. In this theory, economic activity is depicted as a circular flow of money in which one individual’s spending is part of the earnings of another.

If, however, individuals become less confident about the future, they are likely to cut back on their outlays and "hoard" more money, thereby diminishing the earnings of some other individual, who in turn also spends less. A vicious circle emerges: the decline in confidence leads to less spending and more hoarding, further weakening the economy and eroding confidence in it.

To arrest the downward spiral, according to this theory, the central bank must increase the supply of money. By putting more money in people’s hands, confidence and spending will increase, and the circular flow of money will pick up again.

All this sounds very convincing, and, indeed, business surveys show that a lack of individual demand is the major factor behind poor performance during recessions. But can demand by itself generate economic growth? What about the supply of goods? Are goods always around, just waiting for demand? Is it even possible for demand itself to be scarce?

Scarcity of Means Thwarts Demand


In the real world, demand is not just desire -- it is desire backed up by wherewithal. It is necessary to produce useful goods that can be exchanged for other useful goods. Bakers who produce bread don’t produce everything for their own consumption, but exchange most of it for the goods of other producers. Through the production of bread, bakers exercise demand for other goods. According to David Ricardo:
No man produces but with a view to consume or sell, and he never sells but with an intention to purchase some other commodity, which may be immediately useful to him, or which may contribute to future production. By producing, then, he necessarily becomes either the consumer of his own goods, or the purchaser and consumer of the goods of some other person.
Tools and machinery (i.e., capital goods) raise worker productivity: they must be made, and they increase growth in the production of consumer goods.

Consumer goods must be available to those who produce capital goods, in order to sustain their life and well-being during production. This allocation of consumer goods is made possible by saving—that is, a decision by some individuals to transfer a portion of their consumer goods now, in return for a greater quantity in the future, to those who are producing capital goods now. Despite what the Keynesians assert, it is saving that enables the production of capital goods. and thereby raises individual living standards. It is  saving, therefore, that is the beating heart of economic growth.

Money and Saving—What Is the Relationship?


Money does not alter the essence of saving but does make it easier for producers to exchange their products with one another. It does not produce goods but only facilitates their exchange. According to Rothbard,
Money, per se, cannot be consumed and cannot be used directly as a producers’ good in the productive process. Money per se is therefore unproductive; it is dead stock and produces nothing.
In a money economy, payments for goods are still made with other goods—money only facilitates the payment. Thus, a baker exchanges saved bread for money and then exchanges the money for other goods, effectively paying with the saved bread. When a baker exchanges with a shoemaker saved bread for money, the shoemaker receives sustenance to continue making shoes.

Saving makes economic activity possible by means of money. We do not save money itself but employ it to channel the unconsumed consumer goods we have saved toward individuals engaged in production. An individual who hoards money is not saving money per se but rather exercising a demand for it, which is never the bad news that popular thinking believes it to be. Saving does not weaken but rather strengthens economic growth.

Money out of Thin Air and Economic Growth


When money is generated out of thin air however it sets in motion an exchange of nothing for money, followed by money for something—that is, an exchange of nothing for something. This leads to consumption not supported by production, i.e., a diversion of saved consumer goods—which are the products of wealth-generating activities—toward those who hold money made from nothing. Diminishing the flow of saved consumer goods toward producers of wealth weakens the production of goods and in turn the demand for goods, setting in motion an economic recession.

What weakens the demand for goods is not the capricious behavior of consumers but an increase in the money supply out of thin air. As long as the pool of consumer goods is expanding, the central bank and government officials can give the impression that loose monetary and fiscal policies are driving the economy. This illusion, however, is shattered once the pool becomes stagnant or declines. Without expanding the production of consumer goods, all other things being equal, economic growth is not possible.

Conclusion


Most people aspire to a good and comfortable life. Standing in the way of this goal are the means that must be produced to achieve it. Saving permits the expansion of these means. The increase in saving, which supports the increase in the production of goods, also generates an increase in demand for goods. Any illusion that demand can somehow be strengthened through the monetary presses is sooner or later shattered by the impossibility of getting something for nothing.

* * * * 

Frank Shostak's consulting firm, Applied Austrian School Economics, provides in-depth assessments of financial markets and global economies. Contact: email.
His post first appeared at the Mises Wire.


Wednesday, 30 August 2023

Productivity? Or the opposite... ?


"Anyway, here is how the chart of labour productivity levels looks [now] across countries....


"[I]f there is something to that point [that measurements may differ across countries] ... [we might make] comparisons of how New Zealand has or has not dropped down the OECD league tables ... over the last 10 years ... a period half governed by Labour and half by National.
    "Here I’ve shown (ranked top to bottom) the levels of real GDP for 2012 and 2022, and in the final column I’ve identified where a country has changed by more than two rankings over that decade:


"Most of the material movements are in the bottom half of the table. There are some stellar performers, most notably Turkey and Poland. And there are some really really mediocre ones: Portugal and our own New Zealand. We’ve dropped six ranking places in a club of only 37 members in just a decade....
    "But there is no sign that either of our major parties (well, or the minor parties) care, or have any ideas, any credible narrative, to reverse our economic decline."

~ Michael Reddell, from his post 'Does any political party care?'
UPDATE: To make the comparisons even clearer ... or more stark:


Friday, 31 March 2023

CHINA: "In the economic sense, it’s not a productivity-driven economy."


"Q: What is a big misconception about China’s economy?
"A: [O]ne of them is that they look at the Chinese R&D spending, and they look at, for example, some of the impressive technological progress the country has made, and then they drew the conclusion that the Chinese economy is driven by productivity and innovations. In fact, studies show that the total productivity contributions to the GDP have been declining in the last decade and even more. As China has begun to invest more in R&D, the economic contributions coming from technology, coming from productivity have been actually declining. In the economic sense, it’s not a productivity-driven economy. It is an overwhelmingly investment-driven economy.
    "I think that’s one of the biggest misunderstandings of Chinese economy. It entails implications about the future prospects of the country, whether or not you can sustain this level of economic growth purely on the basis of massive investments."

~ Yasheng Huang, Professor of Global Economics and Management at MIT’s Sloan Business School, in conversation with Tyler Cowen, taken from Timothy Taylor's post 'Interview with Yasheng Huang on the Development of the Chinese State'

Tuesday, 20 December 2022

"There was once talk of closing the gap between New Zealand and Australian incomes/productivity by 2025..."


"In a couple of weeks it will be 2023. And then in a couple of years it will be 2025.
    "Those with longish geeky memories may recall that there was once talk of closing the gap between New Zealand and Australian incomes/productivity by 2025. Without any great enthusiasm no doubt, the incoming National government led by John Key agreed to ACT’s request for a (time and resource-limited) official 2025 Taskforce that would offer some analysis and advice on what it would take to achieve such a goal. The Taskforce’s first report had been dismissed by the Prime Minister before it was even released and after the second report the Taskforce was quietly disbanded....
    "[D]espite all its mineral riches, Australia is not a stellar productivity performer, so aiming to catch them was hardly reaching for the stars....
    "In 2007, just prior to the last recession, OECD estimates have Australian real GDP per hour worked about 23 per cent higher than that in New Zealand.
    "What has happened since? On that same (annual) OECD metric the gap last year was about 31 per cent....
    "[And] there is no sign either main political party actually cares enough to think hard about overhauling policy here in a way that might one day mean New Zealand might offer the world-matching living standards it did not that many decades ago."

~ Michael Riddell, from his post 'NZ and Australia'


Monday, 25 July 2022

"...if we stop setting the right priorities in technological development, if we stop improving the agricultural productivity, then progress will stop. That is what I fight against."


"LIFE EXPECTANCY IS THE BEST SINGLE MEASURE FOR QUALITY OF LIFE. The increase of world life expectancy with increasing world population (more people, more brains, more creative power) is the best evidence against the evil Malthusian movement [fixated upon environmental catastrophe] and the World Economic Forum’s destructive Great Reset ideology.
    "However, if we stop thinking rationally, if we stop investing in truthful science and education, if we stop setting the right priorities in technological development, if we stop improving the agricultural productivity, then progress will stop. That is what I fight against."

~ Franco Battaglia and Guus Berkhout, from, their post 'Ability of mankind to solve problems is beyond imagination'

Saturday, 9 April 2022

"Race to the bottom"?


Trade skeptics and other foolish fellows and fellow-esses will sometimes concede that, well, yes, it might be okay that you and I and the family down the road can buy our underwear and electronics more cheaply if we let the places that make that stuff more cheaply sell it to us. But, they then say, those places make that stuff more cheaply because their wages are lower -- and if we let those places sell us everything, then eventually all wages everywhere will be lower. We will all, they say, be in a "race to the bottom" in which everyone loses.

I suggest these worry-worts and foolish persons quit their worrying, because that isn't going to happen. And that isn't going to happen, because Capital.

What does that mean? 

Don Boudreaux explains (in the American context) as part of some on-going correspondence he's having with a trade skeptic:
Mr. W__:

Disagreeing with my explanation of why high-wage American workers have nothing to fear from an American policy of free trade with low-wage countries, you write: “High US worker productivity comes from companies investing plenty of capital for workers to work with. But under free trade companies would move investments to countries with lower wages. US workers will become less productive and be paid lower wages. This is why the combination of free trade and capital mobility are bad for workers in rich nations.”

Wrong.

While you’re correct that the productivity of American workers is raised in no small part by significant private-sector investment in the U.S. – that is, by the creation and use in the U.S. of capital goods and services that improve worker productivity – for a variety of reasons you’re incorrect to conclude that American workers would suffer under free trade. Here are two of those reasons.

First, worker productivity in the U.S. isn’t kept high exclusively by investments here in capital goods and services. Also raising American workers’ productivity is the extensiveness and quality of our transportation and communications infrastructure, the relative honesty and efficiency of our legal system, and the still-dominance here of what Deirdre McCloskey calls “bourgeois virtues,” especially our culture of commerce, hard work, and high trust. Making trade freer would do nothing to worsen America’s performance on these fronts; indeed, I believe that this performance would be further improved.

Second, the amount of capital in the world isn’t fixed. It expands or shrinks with the bettering or worsening of investment climates in different countries across the globe.

There’s a reason why low-wage countries have in place less capital per worker than is in place in the U.S., that reason being that investing in those countries is less attractive than is investing in the U.S. And the attractiveness of investing in those countries is unlikely to improve greatly merely as a result of the U.S. lowering its trade barriers. But if the investment climate in low-wage countries improves in a way to attract to those countries substantially more investment, as long as government in the U.S. does nothing to worsen the investment climate here – say, by raising taxes exorbitantly – the stock of capital in America will not fall. Instead, the global stock of capital will rise as new capital is created for low-wage countries. Workers in low-wage countries will thus become more productive with no decline in the productivity of American workers.

Also keep in mind this fact: No small part of the high productivity of American workers is due directly to international trade. This trade not only makes available to many American workers low-cost, high-quality raw materials, tools, and inputs to work with, but also offers to many American companies vast foreign markets that enable these companies to operate at large, highly productive scales.

But in the end, all of the above is unnecessarily complex. The simple fact is this: A people are not made richer when their government obstructs their access to low-priced goods and services. They’re made poorer. Period.

Sincerely,
Donald J. Boudreaux
Professor of Economics
and
Martha and Nelson Getchell Chair for the Study of Free Market Capitalism at the Mercatus Center
George Mason University
Fairfax, VA 22030
FURTHER READING

Monday, 2 August 2021

'Has Aoteanomics Become Labour's Plan for NZ?'


"The Head of the Productivity Commission has just announced his disdain for GDP. He says it 'is not a great measure of anything useful' and blames the profit-oriented shareholder model for our society’s ills. Even though it forms the basis of wealth creation in this nation.
    "The Reserve Bank is backing him. As for the Climate Change Commission, had it cared about both the environment and economic growth, it would’ve advocated for carbon taxes with the revenues being used to cut other tax rates. But it didn’t. Furthermore, the keynote address at the NZ Association of Economists 2021 Conference by the Ministry of Primary Industries’ Chief Economist called for a 'systemic transition' to a new 'holistic,' 'post-growth,' 'doughnut' approach to management of the country’s affairs.
    "The keynote gave this new approach a name. Aoteanomics. What is it? A full blown rejection of the idea that [economic] growth is desirable. And it is way more radical and experimental than Rogernomics ever was. So why won’t the PM and Finance Minister come clean to the nation about the new post-growth agenda that’s the talk of the Wellington elite?"
          ~ Robert MacCulloch, from his post 'Has Aoteanomics Become Labour's Plan for NZ?'