By the time you’re reading this, you’ve probably broken down every possible angle when it comes to betting on Super Bowl 2024.
You’ve read every bit of matchup analysis, you’ve listened to all the podcasts and you are probably sitting with a healthy amount of bets for Sunday’s game between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers.
But perhaps there is one approach you have yet to consider. One strategy that hasn’t crossed your mind.
It’s got nothing to do with matchups, defensive schemes or target share, but everything to do with the human psyche.
In my experience working in the betting industry, I’ve noticed that there is always one angle that never gets covered when it comes to betting the Big Game.
It almost feels as if it’s taboo to discuss it on pregame shows or podcasts or in any game preview.
No analyst on the CBS pregame show nor will anybody at your local Super Bowl party make perhaps the boldest of predictions when it comes to the Super Bowl.
That the game will be a complete dud. A waste of time. A snoozer.
Football fans wait all year for this night. They spend 20-plus Sundays committed to a product that’s, frankly, pretty tough to watch these days.
It’s hard work grinding through an NFL season and the payoff is supposed to be that the Super Bowl is a good watch. Nobody wants their last taste of football until September to be bitter.
And the truth is that NFL fans have been spoiled in recent years. The past two Super Bowls were decided by a total of six points.
When these two teams met in Super Bowl LIV, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs scored 21 points in the fourth quarter to come back from a 10-point deficit and win, 31-20.
And you don’t have to go back too far to remember The Philly Special or the Falcons choking away a 28-3 lead.
Heck, I even have time for New England’s 13-3 win over the Rams in Super Bowl LIII. It was a dreary game, sure, but it was close and unexpected.
There are some duds mixed in with these classics, though.
The Buccaneers were up 21-6 at halftime over the Chiefs and extended that lead to 31-9 in Super Bowl LV.
It was an ugly game that was over well before the scoreless fourth quarter started.
Perhaps the most notoriously terrible Super Bowl was Seattle’s 43-8 win over Denver at MetLife Stadium in 2014. These things happen.
But there is a way to keep yourself invested even if the game is a stinker and the best part is that the payouts can be pretty handsome.
Since very few, if any, people want to bet that the Super Bowl will be a terrible game, the odds are always going to be ripe.
Bookmakers have to be on their toes during the lead-up to the Big Game because money is constantly pouring in on the insane amount of props they offer for Sunday’s contest, but you can feel pretty confident that most bettors aren’t going to the window with the intention of betting on a blowout.
So, let’s discuss some angles.
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Perhaps the moment is just too big for Brock Purdy and the 49ers struggle. He makes mistakes. Heck, we were a few weird bounces away from this taking place against the Lions.
Had a couple of things broken Detroit’s way two weeks ago, we could have seen them crush San Francisco by three or four scores.
Is it really out of the question that the Chiefs come out hot and don’t let the Niners back in the game? Kansas City -23.5 is being offered at 17/1 at FanDuel.
Or maybe Purdy is lights out and the 49ers’ defense does to Mahomes what the Bucs did just a few years ago and put him in the blender.
The Niners to win by 28 points is 20/1 at FanDuel or you can back them to win by 25-30 points at 35/1 at DraftKings.
Whether you choose these bets or just ignore this column entirely isn’t the point.
What is important here is that you remember that one of the best ways to find value in these “Everybody will be watching and betting” games is to think of the outcome that nobody wants to see.
And then betting on it.