Marco Hanzsch

I have friends in the Dutch energy transition community (i really do) and they have been doom and gloom ever since the election. They should cheer up. The new coalition agreement actually shows how deep and unstoppable is the political momentum for the energy transition. My strictly personal take on the policy developments that have been condemned on social media as pushing the planet to a fiery doom is the following: ·      Shifting renewable deployment emphasis to offshore wind with consideration for fisheries: This makes perfect sense in an infrastructure constrained country where onshore renewable interconnection became extremely challenging anyway. With a strong maritime engineering sector, offshore wind will support Dutch green jobs, the latest tenders already had marine ecology assessments which the industry incorporated into project designs. ·      Support for carbon capture: CCS is mainstream climate science, it features in the transition strategies of most net zero jurisdictions including the EU’s which was designed by Dutch green leader Mr Timmermans in his previous role at the Commission. CCS will enable Rotterdam remaining an industrial hub in the net zero society. ·      Existing nuclear stays open, new nuclear is encouraged: Prematurely shutting down nuclear led to increased fossil fuel use in every single place that tried it. Given the space constrains and high industrial energy use of the Netherlands, keeping nuclear in the mix for the long term is a reasonable strategy. ·      Eliminating EV subsidies: given the amazing technology learning curve of EV batteries, I have no doubt that a dynamic EV penetration will continue. A lot of those subsidies ended up anyway in the upper middle class suburbs swarming with Teslas. ·      Eliminating the 100 km/h speed limit: the only losers will be the apps that everyone uses to evade radar control. This regulation was never consistent with social preferences. With electric cars, it does not matter. ·      Maintaining offshore oil and gas production: We might have to agree to disagree, but shutting down hydrocarbon production in stable democracies ahead of the physical transition of demand only benefits the hostile dictatorships and corrupt oligarchs who would step into the market gap while demand is there. The Netherlands has very tough environmental regulations on the oil and gas industry, if it plays a role in serving the remaining demand that is good for the planet. I’m certain that we will see a speedy decline of Dutch CO2 emissions under the new coalition agreement. If this is what is labelled as “climate sceptic backlash’, take the win. There will of course be disagreements and debates on various policies as well as on broader social and cultural issues. This is natural, and the Netherlands has a strong democratic tradition to resolve them. My plea to the Dutch green community is to maintain open minded collaboration.

288

25 commentaren

On 5 November my Alma Mater organizes a #hydrogen and #greenchemistry event where research and markets come together. I intend to attend and see what PAC - Petroleum Analyzer Company may bring to the #energytransition (and learn obviously from Delft University of Technology). #tudh2andgc #nitrogen #nitrogenbased #carbonbased #bioeconomy

13

“While others talked, we invested.” Just published: Shell CEO Wael Sawan discusses Shell’s role in the energy transition in an exclusive interview with Dutch daily NRC. He says: “Shell embraced the energy transition years ago. While others were mainly talking, we invested. We are already working on reducing our own emissions; our reduction target is even higher than what is required (in the Climate Case ruling).. We have the ambition to reduce emissions of customers who use our oil products by 15 to 20 percent by 2030." How will Shell achieve its targets? “We want to be an energy transition company. We do a little oil, a little gas, green hydrogen, CO2 storage, biofuels, charging stations. We're going for gold in all those categories.. We will not play on other people’s pitches; we play to our strengths.” “For example, we are building a green hydrogen plant in the Netherlands for more than 1 billion euros. While there are no customers yet! We are investing $10 billion to $15 billion over three years in projects with lower carbon emissions… But we must be realistic and choose where we want to go faster than society. Sustainable investments must also be financially sustainable.” On Shell’s investments in liquefied natural gas: “We believe that you can greatly reduce emissions in the world by replacing coal with gas. We need a transition fuel until there are batteries that are powerful enough to provide energy for longer periods of time. Of all the options that are currently available, gas is the most realistic.” Wael is optimistic for the future, he believes in the ingenuity of man, and the “100,000 bright minds at Shell,” to find solutions. And that’s hugely important: “The choices I must make can be frighteningly complicated. We need to find solutions amid all kinds of uncertainties and threats. The hardest part is figuring out which one." #strategy #sustainability #innovation #energy #energytransition

2.677

140 commentaren

“With you, everything’s gas”, Timon, the meerkat, tells the visionary warthog Pumbaa in the Lion King movie. He could as well have talked about US energy production.    While fossil fuels occupy all the podium places for US primary energy production growth, natural gas stands out.  As you can see below, that’s because natural gas production has grown using very small means.   Around the early 2000s, the early part of the Shale Revolution, US frac’d well count grew from 12,000 (mostly vertical) to 40,000 wells per year. 80% of these wells targeted natural gas. Today, the total (mostly horizontal) well count is back to 12,000 per year, but only 20% targets natural gas.    The ~2,500 US shale gas wells added every year result in the massive production growth of natural gas. With only ~1/4 of the resources thrown at it as compared to oil, the US primary energy from natural gas is actually slightly bigger than oil. The primary energy production of these wells is second to none in worker energy productivity and energy density.    Gas is the world’s clean, reliable and scalable transition fuel to an eventual nuclear future. For all of us today, everything’s essentially gas.    #energytransition #energy #shale #frac #naturalgas 

95

3 commentaren

The next steps for NL and the wider area!

32

Nice summary, Michael! For those concerned about pricing, welcome to emerging sectors within emerging markets. New types of credits, in particular those tied to oil and gas, need time to be understood and markets need better transparency. Support from the global marketplace and governments like that announced last week by the Biden administration go along way in establishing credibility and transparency but it takes time. Consider it took 4 + years of work by Maris/ ACR at Winrock International and others just to have the first credits hit the market- in 2024! We’re just beginning to build awareness as an industry sector and demand is coming, it just takes patience and a lot of education.

5