ATTOM has released its third-quarter 2024 report analyzing qualified low-income Opportunity Zones targeted by Congress for economic redevelopment in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (see full methodology below). In this report, ATTOM looked at 3,857 zones around the United States with sufficient data to analyze, meaning they had at least five home sales in the third quarter of 2024.
The report found that median single-family home and condo prices increased from the second quarter of 2024 to the third quarter of 2024 in 53 percent of Opportunity Zones around the country with enough data to measure. They were up annually in 61 percent of those zones.
As the nation’s long housing market boom continued, median prices increased more than 10 percent annually in almost half the Opportunity Zones analyzed.
Those trends, in and around low-income neighborhoods where the federal government offers tax breaks to spur economic revival, extended a long-term pattern of home values inside Opportunity Zones moving parallel to broader nationwide price shifts for at least the last three years. That pattern has remained in place regardless of whether the housing market has surged, improved modestly or ticked downward.
Despite overall gains inside Opportunity Zone markets, the third-quarter trends again were mixed, with typical values rising more in higher-priced zones while benefitting fewer of the very lowest-priced neighborhoods. That continued to reveal how the very bottom of the U.S. housing market is benefitting less from the national run of price gains now in its 13th year and could be more vulnerable if that pattern levels off or reverses.
Nevertheless, the latest patterns yet again showed how some of the most distressed communities in the nation are enjoying strong signs of ongoing economic strength, or limited weakness, compared to other markets around the country.
By several important measures, Opportunity Zones again did even better than the nation as a whole during the third quarter of 2024. For example, median prices inside the zones grew by at least 10 percent annually more often than elsewhere.
“Another quarter, another sign of rising fortunes. That again is the takeaway from home-price data inside neighborhoods with some of the most pressing needs around the country, marking just the latest indication of their economic potential,” said Rob Barber, CEO for ATTOM. “We keep seeing this over and over as soaring values push house hunters without a ton of resources out of pricier locations to more-affordable markets.”
He added that “the situation inside Opportunity Zones still is far from rosy. Significant numbers still face depressed prices. But the latest big picture provides more evidence of home buyers interested in these communities, which can only be a positive lure for the investments that Opportunity Zone incentives are designed to attract.”
Opportunity Zones are defined in the Tax Act legislation as census tracts in or alongside low-income neighborhoods that meet various criteria for redevelopment in all 50 states, the District of Columbia and U.S. territories. Census tracts, as defined by the U.S. Census Bureau, cover areas that have 1,200 to 8,000 residents, with an average of about 4,000 people.
Amid economic limitations, most Opportunity Zones still had typical home values that fell well below those around most of the nation in the third quarter of 2024. Median third-quarter prices inside about 80 percent of the zones were less the U.S. median of $360,500. That was about the same portion as in earlier periods over the past three years. In addition, median prices remained under $200,000 in almost half the zones.
Considerable price volatility also continued inside Opportunity Zones, with median values either dropping or increasing by at least 5 percent in nearly three-quarters of those locations from the second quarter of 2024 to the third quarter of this year. That again likely reflected small numbers of sales in many zones.
High-level findings from the report:
Median prices of single-family homes and condos increased from the second quarter of 2024 to the third quarter of 2024 in 1,803 (53 percent) of the Opportunity Zones around the U.S. with sufficient data to analyze, while staying the same or decreasing in 47 percent. Measured annually, medians remained up from the third quarter of 2023 to same period this year in 2,091 (61 percent) of those zones. (Among the 3,857 Opportunity Zones included in the report, 3,426 had enough data to generate usable median-price comparisons from the second to the third quarter of 2024; 3,420 had enough data to make comparisons between the third quarter of 2023 and the third quarter of 2024).
In another indication of strength, typical values rose by more than 10 percent annually in 43 percent of Opportunity Zones versus 37 percent of census tracts elsewhere.
Measured quarterly, typical values were up more than 5 percent in 42 percent of Opportunity Zones and in 39 percent of neighborhoods outside the zones.
However, in a potential sign of trouble, median prices were up annually in only 48 percent of Opportunity Zones where homes commonly sold for less than $125,000 during the third quarter of 2024.
Among states that had at least 25 Opportunity Zones with enough data to analyze during the third quarter of 2024, the largest portions of zones where median prices increased annually were in Nevada (medians up from the third quarter of 2023 to the third quarter of 2024 in 81 percent of zones), Wisconsin (75 percent), Indiana (72 percent), Ohio (69 percent) and Utah (69 percent). States where prices were up annually in the smallest portion of zones included Kentucky (median prices up in 46 percent of zones), Louisiana (47 percent), Colorado (47 percent), Arizona (48 percent of zones) and Oklahoma (52 percent).
Of the 3,857 zones in the report, 1,081 (28 percent) had median prices below $150,000 in the third quarter of 2024. That was down from 33 percent of zones with sufficient data a year earlier and almost 60 percent five years ago. Another 636 zones (16 percent) had medians in the third quarter of this year ranging from $150,000 to $199,999.
Median values in the third quarter of 2024 ranged from $200,000 to $299,999 in 25 percent of Opportunity Zones while they topped the nationwide third-quarter median of $360,500 in just 21 percent.
The Midwest continued in the third quarter of 2024 to have larger portions of the lowest-priced Opportunity Zone tracts. Median home prices were less than $175,000 in 58 percent of zones in the Midwest, followed by the Northeast (40 percent), the South (39 percent) and the West (5 percent).
Median household incomes in 87 percent of the Opportunity Zones analyzed were less than the medians in the counties where they were located. Median incomes were less than three-quarters of county-level figures in 54 percent of those zones and less than half in 14 percent.
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