Two months after election and six weeks after results were announced, we are farther from figuring out the shape of the new government than we were on election eve.
The largest three blocs (Allawi's Iraqiya, Maliki's SoL and Hakim/Sadr's INA) are struggling to wrestle the initiative from one another. Recent developments over the last week appear to have given Maliki the advantage. Maliki has tried to keep his options open by negotiating on multiple tracks with both INA and Iraqiya. He recently agreed to enter a coalition with INA to form the largest bloc and consequently the new government. A few days after that reports came that he's been engaged in serious negotiations with Iraqiya.
His strategy appears to be working. Today the Sadrists, who had been adamant in their refusal to let Maliki stay in office are saying that they don't have redlines regarding any future PM candidate, including Maliki.
Maliki has played a good game of political brinkmanship that could enable him to extract concessions from his rivals. His deal last week with INA seems to have convinced Iraqiya that maybe offering Maliki a second term while a member of Iraqiya become president is better than being alienated altogether while INA and SoL get everything. On the other hand, the recent news about a SoL-Iraqiya deal may have convinced the INA that it's better to accept Maliki's PM candidacy than to watch him form a grand nationalist coalition with Iraqiya--a coalition that could in theory rule without the votes of INA or even the Kurds.
The decision now belongs to neither the largest bloc (Iraqiya) nor to any of the "kingmaker" groups (INA, Kurds)--it's pretty much in Maliki's hand. Choosing to form a cohesive nationalist government with Iraqiya (while giving minimal shares of power to the Kurds and INA) would be the best for Iraq's democracy, but it would anger Tehran and its proxies who bring a gun to the negotiations table.
On the other hand, choosing to go with INA and the Kurds (and giving minimal share of power to Iraqiya, in a replication of the 2005 government, which was weakened by compromises) would certainly be a setback to democracy. Ironically, this path doesn't guarantee that Sadr won't revive his quest for power because with 40 seats in parliament and several cabinet posts, he will have unprecedented access to resources to exploit in his Iranian-backed campaign to foil democracy in Iraq.
It seems to me that the new government is bound to have problems with Sadr, and armed confrontation may become inevitable as was the case two years ago. If I were Maliki, I'd choose the strong government option and join Allawi--that would put the government in a better position to win any future confrontation with Sadr or other menaces .
New points of view about the future of Iraq and the Middle East.
Sunday, May 09, 2010
Friday, April 16, 2010
Government Formation--Nationalism vs. Regional Agendas
The dust from election day is beginning to settle down and now we can identify the main possible trajectories in which government-formation is going.
First of all, it is becoming clear that there are two very powerful regional influences that are pulling in different, but not exactly opposite, directions. On the one hand there’s Iran and on the other there’s Saudi Arabia, and I may say Turkey with it.Second, the US is not a direct player on the stage but is believed to be represented by the Saudis and Turks.
Iran is pushing for a government that resembles the one formed after the December 2005 election. That would be a government including Maliki's bloc, along with ISCI, the Sadrists, the Kurds and maybe the Sunni Accord. Iran however, does not want Maliki to be the next PM, and this is the reason why a deal between him, ISCI and the Sadrists isn’t in place yet.
Iran by the way wants neither Allawi nor Maliki to be the next PM. Iran essentially would like to see a weak central government in Baghdad. To achieve this end, Iran is pushing Shiite parties to pick a “compromise” PM figure and a strike deal that allows smaller (and more sectarian) parties to have a lot of influence at the expense of the larger bloc (Maliki's or Allawi's).
Iran's efforts in this direction and Maliki's refusal to negotiate with Allawi is making Allawi pursue a direction that is similar—in concept—to what Iran wants; a ruling coalition comprising his bloc, the Kurds, Sadrists and/or ISCI, and maybe the Sunni Accord.
Saudi Arabia is seen as Allawi’s main source of regional support. The kingdom is making a spectacular debut in Iraqi politics and is working energetically to counter Iran's role.
In just a few days Riyadh has received most Iraqi leaders; Hashimi, Hakim, Talabani and Barzani, all had meetings with King Abdullah himself. Maliki and the Sadrists, however, were shunned by the Saudis.
The Saudi king also made some interesting gestures such as awarding prestigious medallions to Iraqi Kurdish leaders Talabani and Barzani. This is a declaration of approval of the new order in Iraq. Approval of course requires cooperation in the form of leaving the Iranian bandwagon and taking the Saudi proposal instead.
The Saudi effort, from the way politicians are talking about it, is seen in Iraq to be coordinated with Turkey and the US. Perhaps this perception will serve to persuade the Kurds to listen to the Saudi proposal for two reasons. First, they care a lot about maintaining good relations with, and not upsetting, their northern neighbor. Second, a deal under the auspices of the US is likely to involve checks against extremist Arab nationalist agendas within Allawi's camp. Moreover, the Kurdish region looks forward to GCC investments, which the Saudis can help with. Overall, a deal with the Sunnis/Allawi is looking more lucrative, and not as dangerous as before.
It would be a bad idea for Allawi or Maliki to go in either direction preferred by Iran and Saudi Arabia. The key risk here is that a government formed with the exclusion of Allawi (and with him the vast majority of Sunnis) or with the exclusion of Maliki and the Sadrists (the vast majority of Shiites) will be very unlikely to enjoy stability. There will be millions of frustrated voters on either side—among whom there must be some former insurgents and militiamen—who will see the exclusion of their representatives as great injustice.
Additionally, there are great differences between the programs of Maliki and Allawi on the one hand and the programs of ISCI, Sadrists and Accord on the other hand. Joining these sectarian parties in a coalition would only lead to a highly unstable and inefficient government that will not be able to make critical decisions effectively. By contrast, a government that includes both Allawi’s and Maliki’s blocs would be more likely to rule effectively and avoid disintegration, again due to the similarities in their programs.
This idea of a nationalist Allaw-Maliki coalition is unfortunately not gaining enough momentum to compete with the Saudi and Iranian proposals.
The two leaders—pressed by political realities—are being diverted from the nationalist vision they both sought to represent and instead heeding what X or Y in the region thinks is acceptable. Iran and Saudi Arabia are both keen not to let Iraq become a satellite of the other but at the same time neither wants Iraq’s democracy to succeed because that is a threat to both of them.
Remember the Lebanese election? Despite Iran’s “loss” and Saudi Arabia’s “win”, Lebanon is still far from safe. The risk here is that Tehran and Riyadh may have decided to have a rematch in Iraq. With the accelerating US disengagement from Iraq, the shape of the next government may very well be shaped by the winner of this rematch.
First of all, it is becoming clear that there are two very powerful regional influences that are pulling in different, but not exactly opposite, directions. On the one hand there’s Iran and on the other there’s Saudi Arabia, and I may say Turkey with it.Second, the US is not a direct player on the stage but is believed to be represented by the Saudis and Turks.
Iran is pushing for a government that resembles the one formed after the December 2005 election. That would be a government including Maliki's bloc, along with ISCI, the Sadrists, the Kurds and maybe the Sunni Accord. Iran however, does not want Maliki to be the next PM, and this is the reason why a deal between him, ISCI and the Sadrists isn’t in place yet.
Iran by the way wants neither Allawi nor Maliki to be the next PM. Iran essentially would like to see a weak central government in Baghdad. To achieve this end, Iran is pushing Shiite parties to pick a “compromise” PM figure and a strike deal that allows smaller (and more sectarian) parties to have a lot of influence at the expense of the larger bloc (Maliki's or Allawi's).
Iran's efforts in this direction and Maliki's refusal to negotiate with Allawi is making Allawi pursue a direction that is similar—in concept—to what Iran wants; a ruling coalition comprising his bloc, the Kurds, Sadrists and/or ISCI, and maybe the Sunni Accord.
Saudi Arabia is seen as Allawi’s main source of regional support. The kingdom is making a spectacular debut in Iraqi politics and is working energetically to counter Iran's role.
In just a few days Riyadh has received most Iraqi leaders; Hashimi, Hakim, Talabani and Barzani, all had meetings with King Abdullah himself. Maliki and the Sadrists, however, were shunned by the Saudis.
The Saudi king also made some interesting gestures such as awarding prestigious medallions to Iraqi Kurdish leaders Talabani and Barzani. This is a declaration of approval of the new order in Iraq. Approval of course requires cooperation in the form of leaving the Iranian bandwagon and taking the Saudi proposal instead.
The Saudi effort, from the way politicians are talking about it, is seen in Iraq to be coordinated with Turkey and the US. Perhaps this perception will serve to persuade the Kurds to listen to the Saudi proposal for two reasons. First, they care a lot about maintaining good relations with, and not upsetting, their northern neighbor. Second, a deal under the auspices of the US is likely to involve checks against extremist Arab nationalist agendas within Allawi's camp. Moreover, the Kurdish region looks forward to GCC investments, which the Saudis can help with. Overall, a deal with the Sunnis/Allawi is looking more lucrative, and not as dangerous as before.
It would be a bad idea for Allawi or Maliki to go in either direction preferred by Iran and Saudi Arabia. The key risk here is that a government formed with the exclusion of Allawi (and with him the vast majority of Sunnis) or with the exclusion of Maliki and the Sadrists (the vast majority of Shiites) will be very unlikely to enjoy stability. There will be millions of frustrated voters on either side—among whom there must be some former insurgents and militiamen—who will see the exclusion of their representatives as great injustice.
Additionally, there are great differences between the programs of Maliki and Allawi on the one hand and the programs of ISCI, Sadrists and Accord on the other hand. Joining these sectarian parties in a coalition would only lead to a highly unstable and inefficient government that will not be able to make critical decisions effectively. By contrast, a government that includes both Allawi’s and Maliki’s blocs would be more likely to rule effectively and avoid disintegration, again due to the similarities in their programs.
This idea of a nationalist Allaw-Maliki coalition is unfortunately not gaining enough momentum to compete with the Saudi and Iranian proposals.
The two leaders—pressed by political realities—are being diverted from the nationalist vision they both sought to represent and instead heeding what X or Y in the region thinks is acceptable. Iran and Saudi Arabia are both keen not to let Iraq become a satellite of the other but at the same time neither wants Iraq’s democracy to succeed because that is a threat to both of them.
Remember the Lebanese election? Despite Iran’s “loss” and Saudi Arabia’s “win”, Lebanon is still far from safe. The risk here is that Tehran and Riyadh may have decided to have a rematch in Iraq. With the accelerating US disengagement from Iraq, the shape of the next government may very well be shaped by the winner of this rematch.
Wednesday, April 14, 2010
Terrorist Plot to Attack Najaf Shrine With Hijacked Airliners?
Al-Sumaria News:
A government delegation arrived in Najaf Wednesday afternoon to discuss the closure of Najaf’s international airport. The delegation included the ministers of defense, transport and national security.
A source in Najaf’s province council told Al-Sumaria News that “the three ministers went immediately to a meeting with governor Adnan Zurfi to discuss the situation at the airport, which has been shut down for several days” adding that “they [the ministers] are currently at a meeting over the same issue with the members of the province council.”
Najaf’s province council chief Fayid Shemmeri announced Tuesday that a protest against the closure of the airport has been postponed after PM pledged to find a solution for the situation. Other sources stressed that the airport was shut down because of threats of an attack on the Imam Ali shrine using a civilian airliner.
Authorities had shut down Baghdad and Najaf airport last weeks for “technical reasons”. Baghdad’s airport was reopened hours later while Najaf’s remained closed.
Update:
A high-level source at the Counterterrorism Bureau revealed that “intelligence helped thwart a plot to attack the Imam Ali shrine in Najaf by an aircraft departing Najaf’s airport. As a result security authorities decided to shut down the airport immediately and cancel all flights until further notice.”
Another source from the Iraqi intelligence service speaking on condition of anonymity told an Iraqi newspaper Wednesday that “intelligence reports indicated that Al-Qaeda was very close to conducting a spectacular operation using new methods in Iraq…security forces tracked the clues to discover that Al-Qaeda is planning to blow up either the dome of Imam Ali’s shrine or the court between the two shrines of Karbala using civilian aircraft hijacked from Najaf’s airport.”
Update: AP confirms the reports:
"BAGHDAD – Iraqi and U.S. security officials say Iraqi forces have foiled an al-Qaida in Iraq plot for a 9/11-style attack to hijack airlines and fly them into Shiite holy shrines.
Two senior Iraqi officials told The Associated Press on Wednesday they have arrested two men allegedly linked to the plan, which shut down the airport in Najaf for days and Baghdad airport for hours last week.
Two senior U.S. intelligence officials in Washington confirmed the plot but said it's doubtful the alleged plotters were very far along in their planning — or even had the ability to carry it out.
The officials say the plan was aimed at re-igniting sectarian violence.
All spoke on condition of anonymity because the investigation is ongoing."
Update: US intelligence officials confirm the plot existed:
"Two U.S. intelligence officials in Washington confirmed the plot but said it did not appear to be fully planned out, nor was it clear that militants would be able to carry out any attacks.
Still, they said the threats were being taken seriously as "the intent seems real," according to one of the U.S. officials.
Meeting Wednesday afternoon with local lawmakers in Najaf, Iraqi Defense Minister Abdul-Qader al-Obeidi said the airport "will be reopened soon, after discussing the needed security measures." He said the intelligence about the attacks is unclear but "at the same time, we can't neglect them."
He did not confirm or comment on any of the specific allegations.
The Iraqi security officials said al-Qaida planned to hijack flights as they were leaving Iraqi airports. Authorities shut down airports in Najaf and Baghdad last week in response to the threat, the officials said. The Najaf airport has been closed since April 8 and Baghdad's International Airport shut down for a few hours on April 7 in what officials then blamed on radar problems.
One of the Iraqi security officials denied that Wednesday, saying it was closed because of the threatened plot.
The Iraqi officials said Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is aware of the plot and has ordered stepped-up screening measures at all airports."
A government delegation arrived in Najaf Wednesday afternoon to discuss the closure of Najaf’s international airport. The delegation included the ministers of defense, transport and national security.
A source in Najaf’s province council told Al-Sumaria News that “the three ministers went immediately to a meeting with governor Adnan Zurfi to discuss the situation at the airport, which has been shut down for several days” adding that “they [the ministers] are currently at a meeting over the same issue with the members of the province council.”
Najaf’s province council chief Fayid Shemmeri announced Tuesday that a protest against the closure of the airport has been postponed after PM pledged to find a solution for the situation. Other sources stressed that the airport was shut down because of threats of an attack on the Imam Ali shrine using a civilian airliner.
Authorities had shut down Baghdad and Najaf airport last weeks for “technical reasons”. Baghdad’s airport was reopened hours later while Najaf’s remained closed.
Update:
A high-level source at the Counterterrorism Bureau revealed that “intelligence helped thwart a plot to attack the Imam Ali shrine in Najaf by an aircraft departing Najaf’s airport. As a result security authorities decided to shut down the airport immediately and cancel all flights until further notice.”
Another source from the Iraqi intelligence service speaking on condition of anonymity told an Iraqi newspaper Wednesday that “intelligence reports indicated that Al-Qaeda was very close to conducting a spectacular operation using new methods in Iraq…security forces tracked the clues to discover that Al-Qaeda is planning to blow up either the dome of Imam Ali’s shrine or the court between the two shrines of Karbala using civilian aircraft hijacked from Najaf’s airport.”
Update: AP confirms the reports:
"BAGHDAD – Iraqi and U.S. security officials say Iraqi forces have foiled an al-Qaida in Iraq plot for a 9/11-style attack to hijack airlines and fly them into Shiite holy shrines.
Two senior Iraqi officials told The Associated Press on Wednesday they have arrested two men allegedly linked to the plan, which shut down the airport in Najaf for days and Baghdad airport for hours last week.
Two senior U.S. intelligence officials in Washington confirmed the plot but said it's doubtful the alleged plotters were very far along in their planning — or even had the ability to carry it out.
The officials say the plan was aimed at re-igniting sectarian violence.
All spoke on condition of anonymity because the investigation is ongoing."
Update: US intelligence officials confirm the plot existed:
"Two U.S. intelligence officials in Washington confirmed the plot but said it did not appear to be fully planned out, nor was it clear that militants would be able to carry out any attacks.
Still, they said the threats were being taken seriously as "the intent seems real," according to one of the U.S. officials.
Meeting Wednesday afternoon with local lawmakers in Najaf, Iraqi Defense Minister Abdul-Qader al-Obeidi said the airport "will be reopened soon, after discussing the needed security measures." He said the intelligence about the attacks is unclear but "at the same time, we can't neglect them."
He did not confirm or comment on any of the specific allegations.
The Iraqi security officials said al-Qaida planned to hijack flights as they were leaving Iraqi airports. Authorities shut down airports in Najaf and Baghdad last week in response to the threat, the officials said. The Najaf airport has been closed since April 8 and Baghdad's International Airport shut down for a few hours on April 7 in what officials then blamed on radar problems.
One of the Iraqi security officials denied that Wednesday, saying it was closed because of the threatened plot.
The Iraqi officials said Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is aware of the plot and has ordered stepped-up screening measures at all airports."
Friday, March 26, 2010
Iraq Election Results Coming Soon
We should hear the election results in about 90 minutes, 7:00 pm baghdad time.
I hope it won't be a 91:91 tie between Allawi and Maliki as some calculations and predictions are showing--such result would be bad for post-eelction negotiations and could seriously complictae cabinet formation. I will try to share some analysis later.
-----
30 minutes after 7:00pm...
Now they say the election commissioners are in a meeting!
Looks like there will be some delay.
-----
Another 30 minutes...
Ok, the election commission press conference begins!
-----
The guy is giving a speech...seriously!?
-----
By the way, the press conference can be viewed live here, but it's in Arabic.
-----
Nice, another speech! This time it's the UN guy.
-----
Ok, at least he's saying there were no evidence of major fraud and that the results ought to be accepted by all.
-----
Yet another speech! (just give me the damn results)
-----
They're talking too much. I sense they have bad news for Maliki.
-----
Finally. They are reading the results, slowly. Will take a while to go through all of them.
-----
Allawi got two seats in Diwaniyah. This may actually be decisive .
-----
And Allawi got another 2 in Wassit. I guess he's getting close.
-----
At the final count:
Allawi: 89
Maliki: 87
Hakim+Sadr: 68
PUK+KDP: 42
Tawafok: 6
Change (Goran): 8
Bolani: 4
Islamic Union (Kurdish): 4
Islamic Group (Kurdish): 2
-----
Adding the 7 compensatory seats, the final picture looks like this:
Allawi: 89+2=91
Maliki: 87+2=89
Hakim+Sadr: 68+2=70
PUK+KDP: 42+1=43
Change (Goran): 8
Tawafok (Accord): 6
Iraq Unity (Bolani): 4
Islamic Union (Kurdish): 4
Islamic Group (Kurdish): 2
Minorities: 8
============
Total: 325
I hope it won't be a 91:91 tie between Allawi and Maliki as some calculations and predictions are showing--such result would be bad for post-eelction negotiations and could seriously complictae cabinet formation. I will try to share some analysis later.
-----
30 minutes after 7:00pm...
Now they say the election commissioners are in a meeting!
Looks like there will be some delay.
-----
Another 30 minutes...
Ok, the election commission press conference begins!
-----
The guy is giving a speech...seriously!?
-----
By the way, the press conference can be viewed live here, but it's in Arabic.
-----
Nice, another speech! This time it's the UN guy.
-----
Ok, at least he's saying there were no evidence of major fraud and that the results ought to be accepted by all.
-----
Yet another speech! (just give me the damn results)
-----
They're talking too much. I sense they have bad news for Maliki.
-----
Finally. They are reading the results, slowly. Will take a while to go through all of them.
-----
Allawi got two seats in Diwaniyah. This may actually be decisive .
-----
And Allawi got another 2 in Wassit. I guess he's getting close.
-----
At the final count:
Allawi: 89
Maliki: 87
Hakim+Sadr: 68
PUK+KDP: 42
Tawafok: 6
Change (Goran): 8
Bolani: 4
Islamic Union (Kurdish): 4
Islamic Group (Kurdish): 2
-----
Adding the 7 compensatory seats, the final picture looks like this:
Allawi: 89+2=91
Maliki: 87+2=89
Hakim+Sadr: 68+2=70
PUK+KDP: 42+1=43
Change (Goran): 8
Tawafok (Accord): 6
Iraq Unity (Bolani): 4
Islamic Union (Kurdish): 4
Islamic Group (Kurdish): 2
Minorities: 8
============
Total: 325
Friday, March 05, 2010
Iraq Elects, Again
Here we go again, for the third time since 2003, Iraqis are heading to the ballots to choose their representatives.
It’s a little different this time. In some aspects it's a little less "interesting"... In December 2005 we walked from home to the voting center (which also used to be where I went to school as a kid) to a soundtrack of mortars and gunfire. Indeed, that ten minute walk was wrapped in so much fear and worry, but also in so much hope and pride.
My trip to the voting center will be less interesting this time because I'll be taking the orange line to Arlington where the place is, which happens to be some hotel whose owner will eventually be Paris Hilton.
Yes, that's a little boring.
In other aspects, though, the election will be more interesting. It’s more difficult to decide who to vote for this time. The fact that voters can pick individual candidates from within lists gives us more options. I can see, for example, that there are many candidates who don't seem to fit into the lists they are running with. I think many have done this with the intention of getting logistic support from those lists and then breaking away after the election and joining other blocs where they would be more compatible.
.jpg)
Otherwise, what is this nice young lady doing running on the same list such unsavory characters are running with? Just saying!
Anyway, I will go dip my finger in the purple ink sometime tomorrow.
Now I need to go back to my homework of researching candidate programs because I haven’t decided on a candidate yet. I know that lady is cute, and I was actually tempted to vote for her, but there are other candidates who better represent the ideas and goals I believe in.
By the way, her campaign posters actually caused gridlocks, and in some reports, even traffic accidents!
Before I forget, here are my predictions for what the distribution of the 325 seats in the new parliament is going to look like:
Sate of Law (Maliki, Da’wa): 90-100
Iraqia List (Allawi, Hashimi): 80-90
Iraqi National Alliance (Hakim, Sadr): 50
Kurdistan Alliance (PUK, KDP): 35
Change List (Nesherwan Mustafa): 15
Iraq Unity Coalition (Bolani): 10-15
Kurdish Islamic parties combined: 6-9
Accord Front: 5-10
Christians, Yezidis and other minorities: 8
Small parties (Communists, Mithal Alousi, Ayad Jamal ad-Din, etc): 6-12
It’s a little different this time. In some aspects it's a little less "interesting"... In December 2005 we walked from home to the voting center (which also used to be where I went to school as a kid) to a soundtrack of mortars and gunfire. Indeed, that ten minute walk was wrapped in so much fear and worry, but also in so much hope and pride.
My trip to the voting center will be less interesting this time because I'll be taking the orange line to Arlington where the place is, which happens to be some hotel whose owner will eventually be Paris Hilton.
Yes, that's a little boring.
In other aspects, though, the election will be more interesting. It’s more difficult to decide who to vote for this time. The fact that voters can pick individual candidates from within lists gives us more options. I can see, for example, that there are many candidates who don't seem to fit into the lists they are running with. I think many have done this with the intention of getting logistic support from those lists and then breaking away after the election and joining other blocs where they would be more compatible.
.jpg)
Otherwise, what is this nice young lady doing running on the same list such unsavory characters are running with? Just saying!
Anyway, I will go dip my finger in the purple ink sometime tomorrow.
Now I need to go back to my homework of researching candidate programs because I haven’t decided on a candidate yet. I know that lady is cute, and I was actually tempted to vote for her, but there are other candidates who better represent the ideas and goals I believe in.
By the way, her campaign posters actually caused gridlocks, and in some reports, even traffic accidents!
Before I forget, here are my predictions for what the distribution of the 325 seats in the new parliament is going to look like:
Sate of Law (Maliki, Da’wa): 90-100
Iraqia List (Allawi, Hashimi): 80-90
Iraqi National Alliance (Hakim, Sadr): 50
Kurdistan Alliance (PUK, KDP): 35
Change List (Nesherwan Mustafa): 15
Iraq Unity Coalition (Bolani): 10-15
Kurdish Islamic parties combined: 6-9
Accord Front: 5-10
Christians, Yezidis and other minorities: 8
Small parties (Communists, Mithal Alousi, Ayad Jamal ad-Din, etc): 6-12
Tuesday, February 16, 2010
A BigTest for 'Justice and Accountability'
Earlier today, there were reports that thousands of protesters took to the streets in Diyala and Fallujah demanding that MP and senior member of Sadr movement Bahaa Al-Aaraji be prosecuted under the Justice and Accountability Law.
Al-Aaraji infuriated the Sunni community when had made what many Iraqis considered inflammatory statements in a recent appearance on a TV show: "Shiites, who make up the majority, had been the target of conspiracies since the days of Abu Bakr, to the days of Ahmed Hasan Al-Bakr's party" Aaraji said, referring to the 7th century first Caliph and to Saddam's predecessor who ruled Iraq from 1968 to 1979.
Sunni politicians and protesters considered this statement sectarian incitement and an insult to a major figure of Islamic history. The protesters reportedly held banners that said "Ban sectarian instigators the same way you banned Ba'ath sympathizers" in reference to the recent ban on hundreds of candidates over suspected ties to the Ba'ath Party.
The cabinet, in a press release, condemned Al-Aaraji's comments: "...this statement violate article (7) of the constitution, which prohibits such [sectarian and racist] remarks...those who propagate these [ideas] may be banned from political participation."
Will Al-Aaraji be a scapegoat to give some credibility to the highly divisive and controversial Justice and Accountability Law and the commission in charge of it?
We shall see soon!
Al-Aaraji infuriated the Sunni community when had made what many Iraqis considered inflammatory statements in a recent appearance on a TV show: "Shiites, who make up the majority, had been the target of conspiracies since the days of Abu Bakr, to the days of Ahmed Hasan Al-Bakr's party" Aaraji said, referring to the 7th century first Caliph and to Saddam's predecessor who ruled Iraq from 1968 to 1979.
Sunni politicians and protesters considered this statement sectarian incitement and an insult to a major figure of Islamic history. The protesters reportedly held banners that said "Ban sectarian instigators the same way you banned Ba'ath sympathizers" in reference to the recent ban on hundreds of candidates over suspected ties to the Ba'ath Party.
The cabinet, in a press release, condemned Al-Aaraji's comments: "...this statement violate article (7) of the constitution, which prohibits such [sectarian and racist] remarks...those who propagate these [ideas] may be banned from political participation."
Will Al-Aaraji be a scapegoat to give some credibility to the highly divisive and controversial Justice and Accountability Law and the commission in charge of it?
We shall see soon!
Tuesday, January 19, 2010
Who is the Ban Targeting?
Feeling the need to provide an explanation, Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki asserted that the decision to ban 500 candidates from general elections is not targeting Sunni Arabs. He said that Sunni Arabs are more than necessary as partners in the political process and that their participation in the March elections is even more important than it was in 2005.
Maliki told al-Iraqia TV on Tuesday night that although the list of banned candidates includes many Sunni names, it also includes Shiites, perhaps in greater numbers, according to Maliki. He also pointed out that 70% of the Ba’ath Party members were Shiite.
Maliki might be right in saying that more Shiites were banned than Sunnis. However, it is obvious now that, unlike with Sunni candidates, none of the banned Shiite candidates is a prominent political figure. In fact, the media so far has not mentioned the names of any of those disqualified Shiite candidates. I suspect that even of the names are made public no one would recognize them nor would I expect their disqualification affect their blocs in any significant manner.
The other important and suspicious point about the ban is that the banned politicians have been part of the political process for several years. This and the timing raise suspicion about the intentions of the Maliki government and the “justice and accountability commission.” While major existing partners in the political process are banned over alleged ties to the Ba’ath Party, the government is at the same time making deals with hostage killers like the group known as Asaib Ahl Al-Haq and is trying to persuade them to join the political process.
In light of these facts and suspicions, the ban is perceived by some in Iraq as a systematic targeting of the Sunni political class. Others think the target is nationalist non-sectarian blocs. I agree more with the latter in that the targets are actually blocs that identify themselves as nationalist/anti-sectarian. We can see for example that Salih Al-Mutlaq and Saad Aasim AL-Janabi (two prominent Sunni banned politicians) are members of the coalitions led by Iyad Allawi and Jawad Al-Bolani respectively. Considering that both Allawi and Bolani are secular nationalist Shiites, it would be wrong to consider the ban as to be targeting Sunni Arabs.
These two coalitions I mentioned (Allawi’s and Bolani’s) represent the most viable and credible attempts at creating political blocs that transcend sectarian affiliations. That’s why I think these heterogeneous coalitions were seen as a serious threat to coalitions that are more homogenous in their ethnic and sectarian composition like Maliki’s, ISCI-Sadr, PUK-KDP. The ban is therefore a manifestation of the struggle between the proponents of a consensus-based political process (like the one in Lebanon) and those of an actual democracy.
Maliki told al-Iraqia TV on Tuesday night that although the list of banned candidates includes many Sunni names, it also includes Shiites, perhaps in greater numbers, according to Maliki. He also pointed out that 70% of the Ba’ath Party members were Shiite.
Maliki might be right in saying that more Shiites were banned than Sunnis. However, it is obvious now that, unlike with Sunni candidates, none of the banned Shiite candidates is a prominent political figure. In fact, the media so far has not mentioned the names of any of those disqualified Shiite candidates. I suspect that even of the names are made public no one would recognize them nor would I expect their disqualification affect their blocs in any significant manner.
The other important and suspicious point about the ban is that the banned politicians have been part of the political process for several years. This and the timing raise suspicion about the intentions of the Maliki government and the “justice and accountability commission.” While major existing partners in the political process are banned over alleged ties to the Ba’ath Party, the government is at the same time making deals with hostage killers like the group known as Asaib Ahl Al-Haq and is trying to persuade them to join the political process.
In light of these facts and suspicions, the ban is perceived by some in Iraq as a systematic targeting of the Sunni political class. Others think the target is nationalist non-sectarian blocs. I agree more with the latter in that the targets are actually blocs that identify themselves as nationalist/anti-sectarian. We can see for example that Salih Al-Mutlaq and Saad Aasim AL-Janabi (two prominent Sunni banned politicians) are members of the coalitions led by Iyad Allawi and Jawad Al-Bolani respectively. Considering that both Allawi and Bolani are secular nationalist Shiites, it would be wrong to consider the ban as to be targeting Sunni Arabs.
These two coalitions I mentioned (Allawi’s and Bolani’s) represent the most viable and credible attempts at creating political blocs that transcend sectarian affiliations. That’s why I think these heterogeneous coalitions were seen as a serious threat to coalitions that are more homogenous in their ethnic and sectarian composition like Maliki’s, ISCI-Sadr, PUK-KDP. The ban is therefore a manifestation of the struggle between the proponents of a consensus-based political process (like the one in Lebanon) and those of an actual democracy.
Monday, January 18, 2010
Justice?
Several hundred candidates from about a dozen political blocs will reportedly be banned from Iraq's upcoming general elections in March.
The problem with this decision is that it seriously threatens to pull Iraq back to the political and security instability of several years ago, when boycotts and political sidelining put the country on the road to civil war.
The selective enforcement of law is not justice. It is also outrageous when the entity in charge of enforcing the "justice and accountability law" is led by a terror suspect.
Ali Faisal Al-Lami, the current head of the commission that issued the ban admitted that he supports one of the most notorious Iran-sponsored armed militias in Iraq.
To appoint a "reconciled" terrorist facilitator in a position where he judges who's qualified to run for office and who's not is a disaster. Whether Mutlaq and the other 500 candidates deserve to be banned or not is now irrelevant.
If the "justice and accountability law" is to be enforced, it should be enforced impartially on all Iraqi parties that have had a role in violence, before and after 2003 alike. Otherwise the law must be revised, suspended or, discarded altogether. After all, having two separate penal codes in one country does not foster justice and rule of law.
The ban has inflamed suspicions that the "justice and accountability law" is about exterminating the Sunni Arab constituent from political life to serve the Maliki's ambitions and Iran's interests--it is not about justice.
Since the surge began in 2007, Americans and Iraqis paid an immense price in blood and treasure to defeat our mutual enemies and make progress happen. We cannot allow this progress to be undone.
The problem with this decision is that it seriously threatens to pull Iraq back to the political and security instability of several years ago, when boycotts and political sidelining put the country on the road to civil war.
The selective enforcement of law is not justice. It is also outrageous when the entity in charge of enforcing the "justice and accountability law" is led by a terror suspect.
Ali Faisal Al-Lami, the current head of the commission that issued the ban admitted that he supports one of the most notorious Iran-sponsored armed militias in Iraq.
To appoint a "reconciled" terrorist facilitator in a position where he judges who's qualified to run for office and who's not is a disaster. Whether Mutlaq and the other 500 candidates deserve to be banned or not is now irrelevant.
If the "justice and accountability law" is to be enforced, it should be enforced impartially on all Iraqi parties that have had a role in violence, before and after 2003 alike. Otherwise the law must be revised, suspended or, discarded altogether. After all, having two separate penal codes in one country does not foster justice and rule of law.
The ban has inflamed suspicions that the "justice and accountability law" is about exterminating the Sunni Arab constituent from political life to serve the Maliki's ambitions and Iran's interests--it is not about justice.
Since the surge began in 2007, Americans and Iraqis paid an immense price in blood and treasure to defeat our mutual enemies and make progress happen. We cannot allow this progress to be undone.
Monday, October 12, 2009
Maliki's State of Law bloc to pay for campaign with member donations
The State of Law coalition, which is led by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and his Da'awa Party is soliciting donations from members to finance the bloc's electoral campaign, Aswat al-Iraq reports. An official with the State of Law coalition said donation would be collected at a designated account with the Iraqi Rafidain Bank.
This is the first time a major political bloc solicits donations from its members with the declared aim of making these donations the primary source of campaign money.
If successful, this initiative could significantly boost the image of the coalition and give it an advantage over rivals whose campaign finances remain much more obscure.
This is the first time a major political bloc solicits donations from its members with the declared aim of making these donations the primary source of campaign money.
If successful, this initiative could significantly boost the image of the coalition and give it an advantage over rivals whose campaign finances remain much more obscure.
Sunday, September 20, 2009
Thirty Mahdi Army commanders assasinated in Damascus
Unknown gunmen assassinated 30 Mahdi Army commanders in the Syrian capital Damascus. The killings, made in the past few weeks, were all made "quietly, inside the victims apartments", said an unnamed source in the Sadr movement. The source added that among those assassinated was Laith al-Ka'bi, who commanded the Mahdi Army in the Palestine Street neighborhood in eastern Baghdad. The report adds that large numbers of Mahdi Army operatives left to Iran out of fear the assassinations wave could expand to target them.
Saturday, September 19, 2009
One-time enemies become ‘brothers’
An amazing story of two men, two wars and four jammed missiles:
The moon was full the night of Jan. 17, 1991, and Air Force Capt. Bill Iuliano, an F-111 bomber weapon systems officer, was in the air. It was the second night of Operation Desert Storm, a U.S.-led combat operation in opposition to Saddam Hussein's forces.
"We were flying from Incirlik Air Force Base in Turkey that night to take out some targets in northern Iraq," Iuliano recalled. "We flew south down the border between Iraq and Iran, turned southeast toward Baghdad, and were going to head back north to hit our targets on the way back to Turkey."
Iuliano said they detected "bandits" in the area, which turned out to be Iraqi IL-76 transport aircraft, heading east toward Iran. The F-15 fighter jets accompanying the F-111s were scrambled to intercept them.
"They came in behind the IL-76s and locked them in as targets," Iuliano said. "Each of the two jets fired two missiles apiece at the Iraqi planes, but something went wrong. Due to a maintenance issue, all four missiles hung and never fired. It turns out they were loaded wrong."
Iuliano, now a lieutenant colonel and commander of the 84th Expeditionary Air Support Operations Squadron and air liaison officer for Multi-National Division - South, said he was upset when he didn't get to see Iraqi planes shot down that night. It was a feeling that would stay with him for 18 years.
"I arrived in Iraq about four months ago," said Iuliano, a native of Boise, Idaho. "I took an interest in helping strengthen the Iraqi Air Force any way I could, and it was through that effort that I met Col. Sami [Saeed]."
Saeed, who commands the 70th Iraqi Air Force Squadron stationed at Contingency Operating Base Basrah, made fast friends with Iuliano. They have worked together and enjoyed each other's company for three months now, but only knew each other about a month when Saeed told Iuliano a story that shook him.
"He told me about being on a mission back during Desert Storm," Iuliano said. "When he told me the moon was full on the night he was talking about, I put two and two together and realized he was talking about that same night. He was piloting one of the planes we engaged that night."
Iuliano said he didn't want to say anything about being in the air that night and he didn't tell Saeed the jets fired on him.
"We had such a good friendship and I didn't want this to get in the way of our work," Iuliano said. "Some of the pilots in the 70th Squadron have asked me if I flew in Desert Storm and I told them I didn't. I just thought it would be better that way."
Iuliano, who is now at the end of his tour in Iraq, knew he couldn't leave the country without telling Saeed. He had a plaque made to present to Saeed and prepared to tell him the truth about that night.
"I'm going to get emotional when I tell him," Iuliano said with a sigh. "I don't know how this is going to go, but I'm ready."
The men met at Saeed's office building Sept. 14 to present gifts to each other in a brief ceremony. Saeed presented Iuliano and two other service members with tokens of appreciation, then Iuliano took the floor. He cleared his throat, looked around the room and began with his story – the part of Saeed's story he didn't know.
"A lot of you have asked me if I flew in the war in 1991," Iuliano said to Saeed and other Iraqi Air Force officers in the room. "I told you at the time that I hadn't, but that wasn't exactly the truth. I said that at the time because I didn't really know how to answer your question, but now I do. On the night of January 17th, under a full moon ..." Iuliano began.
Saeed looked at him in surprise, but allowed Iuliano to continue.
"... I flew in an F-111 bomber as part of a package sent to destroy targets in northern Iraq," Iuliano continued.
When Iuliano got to the part about IL-76s flying east toward Iran, Saeed put his hand on his chest and simply said, "Me?!"
Iuliano looked him in the eye and nodded. The next thing he said caused his voice to catch in a brief display of emotion. "The F-15s were sent to intercept you. They locked you in and fired, but due to a maintenance malfunction, the missiles hung. You are alive today because they were loaded wrong."
Saeed said he was never aware he was engaged by the U.S. Air Force during that mission.
"I had no idea I was being fired on," he said in amazement.
After Iuliano finished telling his story, he presented Saeed with a plaque that read, "Praise Allah for faulty maintenance. Major Sami, 17 Jan 1991, my enemy. Colonel Sami, 17 Jul 2009, my friend. LTC Bill "Julio" Iuliano, USAF."
The two men shook hands and embraced following the presentation, and Saeed told Iuliano, "Don't worry. Please don't worry about that."
Saeed said he was very fortunate to have survived that night, though he didn't know it at the time. He has certainly lived life to the fullest since then.
"When I took off on my mission that night, I was father to a six-month-old son, Ali," Saeed said. "Now I am father to four children. I also have a daughter, Noor, another daughter, Sama, and another son, Muhammad. Life is good because of them, but it has sometimes been hard."
Saeed said he saw his wife shot in the neck while hanging clothes out to dry, was thrown in jail by an associate of Saddam Hussein and was forced to participate in three separate wars as a result of Hussein's administration.
"I could not understand why we were always at war with Saddam in charge," Saeed said. "The Americans have always tried to help the people of Iraq and he had to make it hard for all of us."
Iuliano agreed with Saeed, saying, "The last people who ever want to see war are those of us in uniform."
However, it was war – two, actually – that brought the two men together. The first war, though neither man knew it at the time, made them enemies. The second has made them more than friends.
"We are now brothers," Saeed said with a smile.
The moon was full the night of Jan. 17, 1991, and Air Force Capt. Bill Iuliano, an F-111 bomber weapon systems officer, was in the air. It was the second night of Operation Desert Storm, a U.S.-led combat operation in opposition to Saddam Hussein's forces.
"We were flying from Incirlik Air Force Base in Turkey that night to take out some targets in northern Iraq," Iuliano recalled. "We flew south down the border between Iraq and Iran, turned southeast toward Baghdad, and were going to head back north to hit our targets on the way back to Turkey."
Iuliano said they detected "bandits" in the area, which turned out to be Iraqi IL-76 transport aircraft, heading east toward Iran. The F-15 fighter jets accompanying the F-111s were scrambled to intercept them.
"They came in behind the IL-76s and locked them in as targets," Iuliano said. "Each of the two jets fired two missiles apiece at the Iraqi planes, but something went wrong. Due to a maintenance issue, all four missiles hung and never fired. It turns out they were loaded wrong."
Iuliano, now a lieutenant colonel and commander of the 84th Expeditionary Air Support Operations Squadron and air liaison officer for Multi-National Division - South, said he was upset when he didn't get to see Iraqi planes shot down that night. It was a feeling that would stay with him for 18 years.
"I arrived in Iraq about four months ago," said Iuliano, a native of Boise, Idaho. "I took an interest in helping strengthen the Iraqi Air Force any way I could, and it was through that effort that I met Col. Sami [Saeed]."
Saeed, who commands the 70th Iraqi Air Force Squadron stationed at Contingency Operating Base Basrah, made fast friends with Iuliano. They have worked together and enjoyed each other's company for three months now, but only knew each other about a month when Saeed told Iuliano a story that shook him.
"He told me about being on a mission back during Desert Storm," Iuliano said. "When he told me the moon was full on the night he was talking about, I put two and two together and realized he was talking about that same night. He was piloting one of the planes we engaged that night."
Iuliano said he didn't want to say anything about being in the air that night and he didn't tell Saeed the jets fired on him.
"We had such a good friendship and I didn't want this to get in the way of our work," Iuliano said. "Some of the pilots in the 70th Squadron have asked me if I flew in Desert Storm and I told them I didn't. I just thought it would be better that way."
Iuliano, who is now at the end of his tour in Iraq, knew he couldn't leave the country without telling Saeed. He had a plaque made to present to Saeed and prepared to tell him the truth about that night.
"I'm going to get emotional when I tell him," Iuliano said with a sigh. "I don't know how this is going to go, but I'm ready."
The men met at Saeed's office building Sept. 14 to present gifts to each other in a brief ceremony. Saeed presented Iuliano and two other service members with tokens of appreciation, then Iuliano took the floor. He cleared his throat, looked around the room and began with his story – the part of Saeed's story he didn't know.
"A lot of you have asked me if I flew in the war in 1991," Iuliano said to Saeed and other Iraqi Air Force officers in the room. "I told you at the time that I hadn't, but that wasn't exactly the truth. I said that at the time because I didn't really know how to answer your question, but now I do. On the night of January 17th, under a full moon ..." Iuliano began.
Saeed looked at him in surprise, but allowed Iuliano to continue.
"... I flew in an F-111 bomber as part of a package sent to destroy targets in northern Iraq," Iuliano continued.
When Iuliano got to the part about IL-76s flying east toward Iran, Saeed put his hand on his chest and simply said, "Me?!"
Iuliano looked him in the eye and nodded. The next thing he said caused his voice to catch in a brief display of emotion. "The F-15s were sent to intercept you. They locked you in and fired, but due to a maintenance malfunction, the missiles hung. You are alive today because they were loaded wrong."
Saeed said he was never aware he was engaged by the U.S. Air Force during that mission.
"I had no idea I was being fired on," he said in amazement.
After Iuliano finished telling his story, he presented Saeed with a plaque that read, "Praise Allah for faulty maintenance. Major Sami, 17 Jan 1991, my enemy. Colonel Sami, 17 Jul 2009, my friend. LTC Bill "Julio" Iuliano, USAF."
The two men shook hands and embraced following the presentation, and Saeed told Iuliano, "Don't worry. Please don't worry about that."
Saeed said he was very fortunate to have survived that night, though he didn't know it at the time. He has certainly lived life to the fullest since then.
"When I took off on my mission that night, I was father to a six-month-old son, Ali," Saeed said. "Now I am father to four children. I also have a daughter, Noor, another daughter, Sama, and another son, Muhammad. Life is good because of them, but it has sometimes been hard."
Saeed said he saw his wife shot in the neck while hanging clothes out to dry, was thrown in jail by an associate of Saddam Hussein and was forced to participate in three separate wars as a result of Hussein's administration.
"I could not understand why we were always at war with Saddam in charge," Saeed said. "The Americans have always tried to help the people of Iraq and he had to make it hard for all of us."
Iuliano agreed with Saeed, saying, "The last people who ever want to see war are those of us in uniform."
However, it was war – two, actually – that brought the two men together. The first war, though neither man knew it at the time, made them enemies. The second has made them more than friends.
"We are now brothers," Saeed said with a smile.
Friday, September 11, 2009
Iraq Needs a Real Air Force
Austin Bay and I have a piece today in the Wall Street Journal on Iraq's air force and air defense needs. You can read it here.
Monday, September 07, 2009
Presidency council criticizes Maliki over standoff with Syria
Iraq's leaders seem very uncomfortable with what they consider a monopoly of decision-making by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki.
The Iraqi presidency council called for "containing the situation with neighboring Syria and for cooperation between the two countries to resolve disputes through dialogue and diplomatic channels".
A statement released after the council's meeting in Sulaymaniyah stressed the need to do what is in the best interest of both countries and to prevent "enemies" from using one country against the other. The presidency council includes president Jalal Talabani and his deputies Aadil Abdul-Mahdi and Tariq al-Hashimi.
The statement sounds like an attempt to water down Maliki's attitude toward Syria "the call for considering terrorist attacks as crimes against humanity and the proposal to form an international tribunal for this purpose is not about Syria, but about terrorism as a whole". The council intends to send messages to Maliki and to the secretary general of the Arab League to "explain the position of the presidency council which must be consulted and give approval" when it comes to fundamental and important issues.
VP Abdul-Mahdi was the most vocal in his criticism of Maliki. He basically warned against "having one party make dangerous decisions" in reference to Maliki's call for an international tribunal to investigate Syrian involvement in violence in Iraq.
The presidency council also seems very upset by Maliki's orders to fire several senior officers and the arrest warrant that was issued against Iraq's ambassador to Jordan. In this regard, the statement adds that "The council has taken steps to prohibit acts of defamation or other unconstitutional measures against ambassadors and senior officers as such acts damage Iraq reputation and disrupt the legal frameworks of the state".
The Iraqi presidency council called for "containing the situation with neighboring Syria and for cooperation between the two countries to resolve disputes through dialogue and diplomatic channels".
A statement released after the council's meeting in Sulaymaniyah stressed the need to do what is in the best interest of both countries and to prevent "enemies" from using one country against the other. The presidency council includes president Jalal Talabani and his deputies Aadil Abdul-Mahdi and Tariq al-Hashimi.
The statement sounds like an attempt to water down Maliki's attitude toward Syria "the call for considering terrorist attacks as crimes against humanity and the proposal to form an international tribunal for this purpose is not about Syria, but about terrorism as a whole". The council intends to send messages to Maliki and to the secretary general of the Arab League to "explain the position of the presidency council which must be consulted and give approval" when it comes to fundamental and important issues.
VP Abdul-Mahdi was the most vocal in his criticism of Maliki. He basically warned against "having one party make dangerous decisions" in reference to Maliki's call for an international tribunal to investigate Syrian involvement in violence in Iraq.
The presidency council also seems very upset by Maliki's orders to fire several senior officers and the arrest warrant that was issued against Iraq's ambassador to Jordan. In this regard, the statement adds that "The council has taken steps to prohibit acts of defamation or other unconstitutional measures against ambassadors and senior officers as such acts damage Iraq reputation and disrupt the legal frameworks of the state".
Accord Front considers aligning with Maliki
A member of parliament from the Accord Front said the bloc was considering a political alliance with Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's State of Law bloc.
MP Rasheed al-Azzawi told Radio Sawa that "We will announce our new alliance before Ramadan's end [a couple weeks from now]. Our talks with Maliki's bloc continue and it's not unlikely to have an alliance with them...Negotiations are moving within this framework"
MP Rasheed al-Azzawi told Radio Sawa that "We will announce our new alliance before Ramadan's end [a couple weeks from now]. Our talks with Maliki's bloc continue and it's not unlikely to have an alliance with them...Negotiations are moving within this framework"
Amendments more likely than replacement for Iraq election law
A member of parliament said lawmakers were more likely to agree on amendments for the existing election law than to agree on a whole new legislation.
MP Wa'ail Abdul-Latif, who is also a judge, explained that there is simply not enough time to draft and pass a new election law to replace the existing one that has been in use since 2005. The parliament has to meet a mid-November deadline for agreeing on a legislation under which the next general elections can take place in January.
"Time is not enough to pass a new legislation, therefore we will rely on the 2005 election law and introduce certain amendments, such as replacing the closed slate system with the open slate system" Abdul-Latif added. The open slate system would allow voters to vote for individual candidates instead of whole party slates.
MP Wa'ail Abdul-Latif, who is also a judge, explained that there is simply not enough time to draft and pass a new election law to replace the existing one that has been in use since 2005. The parliament has to meet a mid-November deadline for agreeing on a legislation under which the next general elections can take place in January.
"Time is not enough to pass a new legislation, therefore we will rely on the 2005 election law and introduce certain amendments, such as replacing the closed slate system with the open slate system" Abdul-Latif added. The open slate system would allow voters to vote for individual candidates instead of whole party slates.
Anti-Syria demonstrations in Babil
More than 300 Iraqis protested on Monday to demand that Syria stop its alleged support for "terrorists and assassins" determined to carry out attacks in Iraq.
The demonstrators gathered in Hilla, 120 kilometres (75 miles) south of Baghdad, and held up banners, declaring: "Immorality, Bashar, means killing innocent people in cold blood" -- a jibe at Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
Assad has dismissed as "immoral" and politically motivated allegations by Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki that Syria is harbouring terrorists.
"The Baathists and Takfiris (Sunni extremists) come from your country, Bashar," said another banner at the protest in Hilla, capital of Babil province, referring to the outlawed Baath party of ousted dictator Saddam Hussein.
It is worth mentioning that Babil was hit by a series of synchronized bombings on August 20, a day after the deadly August 19 attacks in Baghdad.
The demonstrators gathered in Hilla, 120 kilometres (75 miles) south of Baghdad, and held up banners, declaring: "Immorality, Bashar, means killing innocent people in cold blood" -- a jibe at Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
Assad has dismissed as "immoral" and politically motivated allegations by Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki that Syria is harbouring terrorists.
"The Baathists and Takfiris (Sunni extremists) come from your country, Bashar," said another banner at the protest in Hilla, capital of Babil province, referring to the outlawed Baath party of ousted dictator Saddam Hussein.
It is worth mentioning that Babil was hit by a series of synchronized bombings on August 20, a day after the deadly August 19 attacks in Baghdad.
Syrian intelligence smuggled top suspects in Baghdad bombings to Lebanon
Syrian intelligence used fake IDs to smuggle the primary suspects of masterminding the August 19 bombings to Lebanon, Lebanese security sources revealed.
The report says that Mohammed Younis al-Ahmed and Sattam Farhan were sent to Lebanon using fake passports. Other insurgents are waiting to be sent to Sudan in a similar manner.
Al-Ahmed and Farhan are the two senior Ba'ath Party members whom Baghdad accused of masterminding the August 19 attacks in Baghdad. A crisis between Iraq and Syria started when the Iraqi government asked Damascus to hand over the two men.
In related news, al-Sharq al-Awsat reports that Iraqi Ba'ath Party members residing in Syria are anxiously following developments in the crisis between Baghdad and Damascus and are preparing for the worst. Abu Al-Walid, a Ba'ath Party member told al-Sharq al-Awsat from Syria that he and his colleagues are "following the news and preparing to relocate to another country in case the Iraqi government decided to prosecute them or, in case the Syrian government had to hand over all Ba'ath members; wanted or not".
The report says that Mohammed Younis al-Ahmed and Sattam Farhan were sent to Lebanon using fake passports. Other insurgents are waiting to be sent to Sudan in a similar manner.
Al-Ahmed and Farhan are the two senior Ba'ath Party members whom Baghdad accused of masterminding the August 19 attacks in Baghdad. A crisis between Iraq and Syria started when the Iraqi government asked Damascus to hand over the two men.
In related news, al-Sharq al-Awsat reports that Iraqi Ba'ath Party members residing in Syria are anxiously following developments in the crisis between Baghdad and Damascus and are preparing for the worst. Abu Al-Walid, a Ba'ath Party member told al-Sharq al-Awsat from Syria that he and his colleagues are "following the news and preparing to relocate to another country in case the Iraqi government decided to prosecute them or, in case the Syrian government had to hand over all Ba'ath members; wanted or not".
U.S. sponsored talks between Nineveh's Arabs and Kurds
Al-Sharq al-Awsat:
The US Embassy sponsored yesterday the first session of direct negotiations between Al-Hadba bloc that has an Arab majority and the Ninawah Fraternity bloc that has a Kurdish majority which boycotted the Mosul-based Ninawah Governorate Council's tasks since April.
The negotiations are aimed at achieving rapprochement between the two sides and forming a joint administration for the governorate which has been suffering from a real administrative crisis since the elections of the governorates' councils in January in which Al-Hadba List won 19 out of37 seats and got most of the sovereign posts in the local government after excluding the Ninawah List.
Khisru Kuran, leader of the Ninawah List which won 12 seats in the council, said: "We welcome any meeting with Al-Hadba even if it was just a matter of courtesy, such as a joint fast breaking dinner, so as to break the ice in the two sides' relations." He added in an exclusive statement to Asharq Al-Awsat at the end of the meeting between the two sides' representatives: "We held a meeting which was attended by two members from Al-Hadba and Ninawah Lists, a member of the Iraqi Islamic Party, and several American friends. The session was dedicated to an exchange of views about the reasons of the estrangement between us and a discussion of the current situations in the governorate in general."
Kuran, who is also in charge of the Ninawah branch of the Kurdistan Democratic Party's organizations which is led by Kurdistan Region President Masud Barzani, added: "We were never opposed to dialogue and negotiations for solving problems. Our doors were and remain open and our hands extended for peace because we want what is good for this governorate. But we believe that the problems in the new Iraq cannot be solved except through rational dialogue, common understanding, and political accord."
Regarding his bloc's threats to split Ninawah Governorate into two, one following Baghdad and the other the Kurdistan Region, if the situations remained as they are now, Kuran said: "The governorate is already actually split. There are 16 administrative units like districts and sub districts which have been boycotting for months the orders, instructions, and sessions of the new administration in Ninawah. This is in itself a split in the governorate's administrative structure but we are seriously seeking to solve the existing problems so as to avoid perpetuating this split." He added: "There is no doubt that if the efforts and negotiations sessions bring positive results then the causes for the split or division taking place will disappear and the opposite is true also."
The US Embassy sponsored yesterday the first session of direct negotiations between Al-Hadba bloc that has an Arab majority and the Ninawah Fraternity bloc that has a Kurdish majority which boycotted the Mosul-based Ninawah Governorate Council's tasks since April.
The negotiations are aimed at achieving rapprochement between the two sides and forming a joint administration for the governorate which has been suffering from a real administrative crisis since the elections of the governorates' councils in January in which Al-Hadba List won 19 out of37 seats and got most of the sovereign posts in the local government after excluding the Ninawah List.
Khisru Kuran, leader of the Ninawah List which won 12 seats in the council, said: "We welcome any meeting with Al-Hadba even if it was just a matter of courtesy, such as a joint fast breaking dinner, so as to break the ice in the two sides' relations." He added in an exclusive statement to Asharq Al-Awsat at the end of the meeting between the two sides' representatives: "We held a meeting which was attended by two members from Al-Hadba and Ninawah Lists, a member of the Iraqi Islamic Party, and several American friends. The session was dedicated to an exchange of views about the reasons of the estrangement between us and a discussion of the current situations in the governorate in general."
Kuran, who is also in charge of the Ninawah branch of the Kurdistan Democratic Party's organizations which is led by Kurdistan Region President Masud Barzani, added: "We were never opposed to dialogue and negotiations for solving problems. Our doors were and remain open and our hands extended for peace because we want what is good for this governorate. But we believe that the problems in the new Iraq cannot be solved except through rational dialogue, common understanding, and political accord."
Regarding his bloc's threats to split Ninawah Governorate into two, one following Baghdad and the other the Kurdistan Region, if the situations remained as they are now, Kuran said: "The governorate is already actually split. There are 16 administrative units like districts and sub districts which have been boycotting for months the orders, instructions, and sessions of the new administration in Ninawah. This is in itself a split in the governorate's administrative structure but we are seriously seeking to solve the existing problems so as to avoid perpetuating this split." He added: "There is no doubt that if the efforts and negotiations sessions bring positive results then the causes for the split or division taking place will disappear and the opposite is true also."
Maliki to send several senior officers to early retirement
There are unconfirmed reports that Prime Minister Maliki has issued orders to send several top security officials to early retirement. The list includes the chief of the explosives department and the director of internal affairs at the ministry of interior (MOI). The news came only a day after Maliki fired the director of operations at the MOI. Less than two weeks ago, the director of the national intelligence service was also fired, or made to resign his position.
There is no concrete information about the reasons behind the decision to dismiss the three senior MOI officers. However, a senior government official told al-Mada that leaks regarding a sensitive security case were behind the firings.
There is no concrete information about the reasons behind the decision to dismiss the three senior MOI officers. However, a senior government official told al-Mada that leaks regarding a sensitive security case were behind the firings.
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