date sales

12/1/2009 20948
12/2/2009 25156
12/3/2009 47463
12/4/2009 18492
12/5/2009 4722
12/6/2009 10805
12/7/2009 13785
12/8/2009 21171
12/9/2009 15148
12/10/2009 21857
12/11/2009 21212
12/12/2009 1.00E-05
12/13/2009 10999
12/14/2009 38029
12/15/2009 25356
12/16/2009 21129
12/17/2009 14234
12/18/2009 7216
12/19/2009 1.00E-05
12/20/2009 5339
12/21/2009 3486
12/22/2009 11658
12/23/2009 2193
12/24/2009 1.00E-05
12/25/2009 1.00E-05
12/26/2009 1.00E-05
12/27/2009 1.00E-05
12/28/2009 1.00E-05
12/29/2009 1.00E-05
12/30/2009 1.00E-05
12/31/2009 1.00E-05
1/1/2010 1.00E-05
1/2/2010 1.00E-05
1/3/2010 1.00E-05
1/4/2010 10593
1/5/2010 11288
1/6/2010 7482
1/7/2010 12580
1/8/2010 10461
1/9/2010 1.00E-05
1/10/2010 12983
1/11/2010 8040
1/12/2010 19669
1/13/2010 5684
1/14/2010 10976
1/15/2010 7436
1/16/2010 1.00E-05
1/17/2010 9910
1/18/2010 8126
1/19/2010 11460
1/20/2010 6602
1/21/2010 7464
1/22/2010 6923
1/23/2010 1.00E-05
1/24/2010 8358
1/25/2010 8600
1/26/2010 7337
1/27/2010 15696
1/28/2010 10228
1/29/2010 9458
1/30/2010 1.00E-05
1/31/2010 8800
2/1/2010 7021
2/2/2010 9606
2/3/2010 8337
2/4/2010 12377
2/5/2010 9694
2/6/2010 1.00E-05
2/7/2010 5364
2/8/2010 6199
2/9/2010 6841
2/10/2010 2841
2/11/2010 8018
2/12/2010 6384
2/13/2010 1.00E-05
2/14/2010 9549
2/15/2010 11219
2/16/2010 14141
2/17/2010 14340
2/18/2010 11129
2/19/2010 10862
2/20/2010 1.00E-05
2/21/2010 5109
2/22/2010 12112
2/23/2010 10829
2/24/2010 12276
2/25/2010 25585
2/26/2010 6263
2/27/2010 1.00E-05
2/28/2010 8087
3/1/2010 20423
3/2/2010 8029
3/3/2010 13036
3/4/2010 16895
3/5/2010 13286
3/6/2010 1.00E-05
3/7/2010 9538
3/8/2010 12472
3/9/2010 10954
3/10/2010 16657
3/11/2010 11548
3/12/2010 5254
3/13/2010 1.00E-05
3/14/2010 3503
3/15/2010 12272
3/16/2010 11494
3/17/2010 12984
3/18/2010 18726
3/19/2010 12106
3/20/2010 1.00E-05
3/21/2010 11750
3/22/2010 11015
3/23/2010 53708
3/24/2010 9496
3/25/2010 14313
3/26/2010 12716
3/27/2010 1.00E-05
3/28/2010 14517
3/29/2010 18221
3/30/2010 16621
3/31/2010 12506
4/1/2010 12527
4/2/2010 1.00E-05
4/3/2010 1.00E-05
4/4/2010 1.00E-05
4/5/2010 1.00E-05
4/6/2010 12562
4/7/2010 13908
 4/8/2010 25018
4/9/2010 7000
4/10/2010 1.00E-05
4/11/2010 8885
4/12/2010 10360
4/13/2010 7677
4/14/2010 14752
4/15/2010 10253
4/16/2010 8606
4/17/2010 1.00E-05
4/18/2010 7957
4/19/2010 11111
4/20/2010 11392
4/21/2010 8048
4/22/2010 18113
4/23/2010 9623
4/24/2010 1.00E-05
4/25/2010 7741
4/26/2010 16661
4/27/2010 22177
4/28/2010 17009
4/29/2010 14249
4/30/2010 14641
5/1/2010 1.00E-05
5/2/2010 5503
5/3/2010 1.00E-05
5/4/2010 7765
5/5/2010 14002
5/6/2010 10102
5/7/2010 22268
5/8/2010 1.00E-05
5/9/2010 9595
5/10/2010 13501
5/11/2010 15104
5/12/2010 14274
5/13/2010 24201
5/14/2010 13848
5/15/2010 1.00E-05
5/16/2010 9156
5/17/2010 12600
5/18/2010 21520
5/19/2010 9275
5/20/2010 14801
5/21/2010 6770
5/22/2010 1.00E-05
5/23/2010 9109
5/24/2010 30752
5/25/2010 13110
5/26/2010 14679
5/27/2010 17414
5/28/2010 11443
5/29/2010 1.00E-05
5/30/2010 6204
5/31/2010 1.00E-05
6/1/2010 7561
6/2/2010 11009
6/3/2010 11619
6/4/2010 5791
6/5/2010 1.00E-05
6/6/2010 12983
6/7/2010 27129
6/8/2010 24155
6/9/2010 23228
6/10/2010 9093
6/11/2010 17939
6/12/2010 1.00E-05
6/13/2010 10448
6/14/2010 13114
6/15/2010 11006
6/16/2010 17313
6/17/2010 11066
6/18/2010 5910
6/19/2010 1.00E-05
6/20/2010 3417
6/21/2010 9277
6/22/2010 5587
6/23/2010 13982
6/24/2010 6600
6/25/2010 6168
6/26/2010 1.00E-05
6/27/2010 10851
6/28/2010 21309
6/29/2010 18254
6/30/2010 16695
7/1/2010 13837
7/2/2010 5938
 7/3/2010 1.00E-05
7/4/2010 5302
7/5/2010 14713
7/6/2010 10086
7/7/2010 10632
7/8/2010 9458
7/9/2010 4240
7/10/2010 1.00E-05
7/11/2010 5711
7/12/2010 8157
7/13/2010 7550
7/14/2010 10266
7/15/2010 26664
7/16/2010 10481
7/17/2010 1.00E-05
7/18/2010 8209
7/19/2010 13164
7/20/2010 10793
7/21/2010 11475
7/22/2010 12635
7/23/2010 11280
7/24/2010 1.00E-05
7/25/2010 11143
7/26/2010 12897
7/27/2010 13024
7/28/2010 12014
7/29/2010 12360
7/30/2010 7789
7/31/2010 1.00E-05
8/1/2010 9702
8/2/2010 11504
8/3/2010 14425
8/4/2010 10027
8/5/2010 16266
8/6/2010 9261
8/7/2010 1.00E-05
8/8/2010 7624
8/9/2010 11691
8/10/2010 6126
8/11/2010 7258
8/12/2010 17125
8/13/2010 12120
8/14/2010 1.00E-05
8/15/2010 16144
8/16/2010 8227
8/17/2010 13345
8/18/2010 13558
8/19/2010 18229
8/20/2010 15399
8/21/2010 1.00E-05
8/22/2010 12687
8/23/2010 10149
8/24/2010 17877
8/25/2010 16246
8/26/2010 15077
8/27/2010 5669
8/28/2010 1.00E-05
8/29/2010 8766
8/30/2010 1.00E-05
8/31/2010 8826
9/1/2010 5762
9/2/2010 14735
9/3/2010 29704
9/4/2010 1.00E-05
9/5/2010 6149
9/6/2010 8369
9/7/2010 13411
9/8/2010 8571
9/9/2010 8611
9/10/2010 9322
9/11/2010 1.00E-05
9/12/2010 7524
9/13/2010 25861
9/14/2010 9580
9/15/2010 11691
9/16/2010 11727
9/17/2010 9605
9/18/2010 1.00E-05
9/19/2010 12431
9/20/2010 21809
9/21/2010 31031
9/22/2010 12589
9/23/2010 19470
9/24/2010 11835
9/25/2010 1.00E-05
9/26/2010 13291
 9/27/2010 118428
9/28/2010 20077
9/29/2010 19086
9/30/2010 18889
10/1/2010 16537
10/2/2010 1.00E-05
10/3/2010 13092
10/4/2010 20393
10/5/2010 32545
10/6/2010 20220
10/7/2010 26156
10/8/2010 33416
10/9/2010 1.00E-05
10/10/2010 10803
10/11/2010 18301
10/12/2010 26585
10/13/2010 23586
10/14/2010 28008
10/15/2010 16294
10/16/2010 1.00E-05
10/17/2010 18342
10/18/2010 16274
10/19/2010 22196
10/20/2010 22437
10/21/2010 13924
10/22/2010 18791
10/23/2010 1.00E-05
10/24/2010 14622
10/25/2010 12941
10/26/2010 19212
10/27/2010 11261
10/28/2010 11363
10/29/2010 20433
10/30/2010 1.00E-05
10/31/2010 15622
11/1/2010 11406
11/2/2010 21521
11/3/2010 13167
11/4/2010 53833
11/5/2010 15140
11/6/2010 1.00E-05
11/7/2010 17016
11/8/2010 15301
 11/9/2010 28298
11/10/2010 30802
11/11/2010 31317
11/12/2010 17091
11/13/2010 1.00E-05
11/14/2010 15896
11/15/2010 18195
11/16/2010 27885
11/17/2010 21356
11/18/2010 17031
11/19/2010 18713
11/20/2010 1.00E-05
11/21/2010 16880
11/22/2010 14511
11/23/2010 22770
11/24/2010 23135
11/25/2010 36293
11/26/2010 11007
11/27/2010 1.00E-05
11/28/2010 14938
11/29/2010 19358
11/30/2010 19421
12/1/2010 21209
12/2/2010 30923
12/3/2010 7607
12/4/2010 1.00E-05
12/5/2010 13451
12/6/2010 15359
12/7/2010 18178
12/8/2010 18839
12/9/2010 13476
12/10/2010 13915
12/11/2010 1.00E-05
12/12/2010 8124
12/13/2010 15007
12/14/2010 16551
12/15/2010 18254
12/16/2010 28100
12/17/2010 4486
12/18/2010 1.00E-05
12/19/2010 3182
12/20/2010 11802
12/21/2010 3705
12/22/2010 2232
12/23/2010 2177
12/24/2010 1.00E-05
12/25/2010 1.00E-05
12/26/2010 1.00E-05
12/27/2010 1.00E-05
12/28/2010 1.00E-05
12/29/2010 1.00E-05
12/30/2010 1.00E-05
12/31/2010 1.00E-05
1/1/2011 1.00E-05
1/2/2011 1.00E-05
1/3/2011 1.00E-05
1/4/2011 6657
1/5/2011 17634
1/6/2011 16337
1/7/2011 11238
1/8/2011 1.00E-05
1/9/2011 7321
1/10/2011 7371
1/11/2011 23276
1/12/2011 6370
1/13/2011 7462
1/14/2011 5310
1/15/2011 1.00E-05
1/16/2011 4086
1/17/2011 7349
1/18/2011 78695
1/19/2011 6560
1/20/2011 5728
1/21/2011 6655
1/22/2011 1.00E-05
1/23/2011 5074
1/24/2011 7623
1/25/2011 11520
1/26/2011 8256
1/27/2011 9049
1/28/2011 5336
1/29/2011 1.00E-05
1/30/2011 3383
1/31/2011 9409
2/1/2011 13518
2/2/2011 8162
 2/3/2011 14496
2/4/2011 10216
2/5/2011 1.00E-05
2/6/2011 2036
2/7/2011 7994
2/8/2011 7123
2/9/2011 2423
2/10/2011 11101
2/11/2011 8674
2/12/2011 1.00E-05
2/13/2011 2723
2/14/2011 10226
2/15/2011 10275
2/16/2011 12822
2/17/2011 11655
2/18/2011 7562
2/19/2011 1.00E-05
2/20/2011 5218
2/21/2011 6221
2/22/2011 17981
2/23/2011 10908
2/24/2011 10777
2/25/2011 9168
2/26/2011 1.00E-05
2/27/2011 4535
2/28/2011 6994
3/1/2011 7606
3/2/2011 8143
3/3/2011 7790
3/4/2011 11175
3/5/2011 1.00E-05
3/6/2011 5026
3/7/2011 10718
3/8/2011 12265
3/9/2011 9832
3/10/2011 9956
3/11/2011 8304
3/12/2011 1.00E-05
3/13/2011 2548
3/14/2011 10119
3/15/2011 6265
3/16/2011 12228
3/17/2011 16463
3/18/2011 11697
3/19/2011 1.00E-05
3/20/2011 12585
3/21/2011 9216
3/22/2011 11738
3/23/2011 10982
3/24/2011 16997
3/25/2011 9986
3/26/2011 1.00E-05
3/27/2011 4434
3/28/2011 8200
3/29/2011 11997
3/30/2011 17887
3/31/2011 11269
4/1/2011 17122
4/2/2011 1.00E-05
4/3/2011 5646
4/4/2011 10931
4/5/2011 10127
4/6/2011 7356
4/7/2011 8020
4/8/2011 10571
4/9/2011 1.00E-05
4/10/2011 5413
4/11/2011 11398
4/12/2011 14388
4/13/2011 18074
4/14/2011 16816
4/15/2011 10194
4/16/2011 1.00E-05
4/17/2011 7583
4/18/2011 19582
4/19/2011 10820
4/20/2011 17319
4/21/2011 15387
4/22/2011 1.00E-05
4/23/2011 1.00E-05
4/24/2011 1.00E-05
4/25/2011 1.00E-05
4/26/2011 14029
4/27/2011 16918
4/28/2011 11900
4/29/2011 1.00E-05
4/30/2011 1.00E-05
5/1/2011 3167
5/2/2011 1.00E-05
5/3/2011 9556
5/4/2011 15602
5/5/2011 13879
5/6/2011 16055
5/7/2011 1.00E-05
5/8/2011 9396
5/9/2011 10448
5/10/2011 14460
5/11/2011 15980
5/12/2011 14528
5/13/2011 11693
5/14/2011 1.00E-05
5/15/2011 4488
5/16/2011 12578
5/17/2011 15718
5/18/2011 17172
5/19/2011 14698
5/20/2011 13920
5/21/2011 1.00E-05
5/22/2011 11379
5/23/2011 15474
5/24/2011 14246
5/25/2011 10233
5/26/2011 10097
5/27/2011 13678
5/28/2011 1.00E-05
5/29/2011 3809
5/30/2011 1.00E-05
5/31/2011 8863
6/1/2011 6092
6/2/2011 12583
6/3/2011 6418
6/4/2011 1.00E-05
6/5/2011 10308
6/6/2011 7835
6/7/2011 16997
6/8/2011 14185
6/9/2011 23866
6/10/2011 6435
6/11/2011 1.00E-05
6/12/2011 8393
6/13/2011 8013
6/14/2011 12960
6/15/2011 10079
6/16/2011 18106
6/17/2011 9041
6/18/2011 1.00E-05
6/19/2011 9864
6/20/2011 10196
6/21/2011 11515
6/22/2011 11529
6/23/2011 12668
6/24/2011 7783
6/25/2011 1.00E-05
6/26/2011 3288
6/27/2011 8639
6/28/2011 9702
6/29/2011 5365
6/30/2011 18461
7/1/2011 6058
7/2/2011 1.00E-05
7/3/2011 3091
7/4/2011 9426
7/5/2011 17061
7/6/2011 13277
7/7/2011 16678
7/8/2011 8650
7/9/2011 1.00E-05
7/10/2011 4204
7/11/2011 12374
7/12/2011 10252
7/13/2011 9018
7/14/2011 12912
7/15/2011 5802
7/16/2011 1.00E-05
7/17/2011 10655
7/18/2011 8418
7/19/2011 19245
7/20/2011 14352
7/21/2011 17727
7/22/2011 7313
7/23/2011 1.00E-05
7/24/2011 16527
7/25/2011 12228
7/26/2011 12150
7/27/2011 9280
7/28/2011 25125
7/29/2011 10380
7/30/2011 1.00E-05
7/31/2011 9350
8/1/2011 10434
8/2/2011 10372
8/3/2011 15102
8/4/2011 35470
8/5/2011 9925
8/6/2011 1.00E-05
8/7/2011 5114
8/8/2011 10919
8/9/2011 7604
8/10/2011 10749
8/11/2011 19802
8/12/2011 7715
8/13/2011 1.00E-05
8/14/2011 3169
8/15/2011 7195
8/16/2011 10285
8/17/2011 23273
8/18/2011 18291
8/19/2011 7995
8/20/2011 1.00E-05
8/21/2011 6667
8/22/2011 14200
8/23/2011 11553
8/24/2011 25432
8/25/2011 10668
8/26/2011 9689
8/27/2011 1.00E-05
8/28/2011 5903
8/29/2011 1.00E-05
8/30/2011 4025
8/31/2011 8551
9/1/2011 22134
9/2/2011 13687
9/3/2011 1.00E-05
9/4/2011 7477
9/5/2011 15972
 9/6/2011 12485
9/7/2011 10217
9/8/2011 13197
9/9/2011 12507
9/10/2011 1.00E-05
9/11/2011 19811
9/12/2011 16323
9/13/2011 25618
9/14/2011 11476
9/15/2011 25914
9/16/2011 13325
9/17/2011 1.00E-05
9/18/2011 8937
9/19/2011 12281
9/20/2011 41081
9/21/2011 15829
9/22/2011 26339
9/23/2011 15064
9/24/2011 1.00E-05
9/25/2011 18096
9/26/2011 14085
9/27/2011 18706
9/28/2011 20655
9/29/2011 25042
9/30/2011 17164
10/1/2011 1.00E-05
10/2/2011 8322
10/3/2011 24401
10/4/2011 22581
10/5/2011 32577
10/6/2011 30043
10/7/2011 24870
10/8/2011 1.00E-05
10/9/2011 7263
10/10/2011 22213
10/11/2011 19622
10/12/2011 12793
10/13/2011 13270
10/14/2011 13744
10/15/2011 1.00E-05
10/16/2011 8649
10/17/2011 18119
10/18/2011 23182
10/19/2011 14113
10/20/2011 16307
10/21/2011 19800
10/22/2011 1.00E-05
10/23/2011 6953
10/24/2011 22993
10/25/2011 23535
10/26/2011 17933
10/27/2011 24317
10/28/2011 16642
10/29/2011 1.00E-05
10/30/2011 17537
10/31/2011 12896
11/1/2011 14601
11/2/2011 22602
11/3/2011 31458
11/4/2011 31023
11/5/2011 1.00E-05
11/6/2011 18129
11/7/2011 14860
11/8/2011 20227
11/9/2011 35722
11/10/2011 27777
11/11/2011 18995
11/12/2011 1.00E-05
11/13/2011 17021
11/14/2011 28934
11/15/2011 21307
11/16/2011 22943
11/17/2011 21726
11/18/2011 16790
11/19/2011 1.00E-05
11/20/2011 16909
11/21/2011 22327
11/22/2011 28227
11/23/2011 28487
11/24/2011 19045
11/25/2011 25123
11/26/2011 1.00E-05
11/27/2011 10082
11/28/2011 25395
11/29/2011 22182
11/30/2011 18880
12/1/2011 23464
12/2/2011 22853
12/3/2011 1.00E-05
12/4/2011 9741
12/5/2011 36596
12/6/2011 25823
12/7/2011 28988
12/8/2011 25369
12/9/2011 87137
Model
simple exponential
simple exponential logged
 Plot a graph of the data
against time. If it looks like
the variation increases with
the level of the series, take
logs. Otherwise model the
original data.

MAE MAPE
15528.4429 1.00
15528.4429 1
Tme date sales day Naïve S.naive
1 12/1/2009 20948 3
2 12/2/2009 25156 4
3 12/3/2009 47463 5
4 12/4/2009 18492 6
5 12/5/2009 4722 7
6 12/6/2009 10805 1
7 12/7/2009 13785 2
8 12/8/2009 21171 3
9 12/9/2009 15148 4
10 12/10/2009 21857 5
11 12/11/2009 21212 6
12 12/12/2009 1.00E-05 7
13 12/13/2009 10999 1
14 12/14/2009 38029 2
15 12/15/2009 25356 3
16 12/16/2009 21129 4
17 12/17/2009 14234 5
18 12/18/2009 7216 6
19 12/19/2009 1.00E-05 7
20 12/20/2009 5339 1
21 12/21/2009 3486 2
22 12/22/2009 11658 3
23 12/23/2009 2193 4
24 12/24/2009 1.00E-05 5
25 12/25/2009 1.00E-05 6
26 12/26/2009 1.00E-05 7
27 12/27/2009 1.00E-05 1
28 12/28/2009 1.00E-05 2
29 12/29/2009 1.00E-05 3
30 12/30/2009 1.00E-05 4
31 12/31/2009 1.00E-05 5
32 1/1/2010 1.00E-05 6
33 1/2/2010 1.00E-05 7
34 1/3/2010 1.00E-05 1
35 1/4/2010 10593 2
36 1/5/2010 11288 3
37 1/6/2010 7482 4
38 1/7/2010 12580 5
39 1/8/2010 10461 6
40 1/9/2010 1.00E-05 7
41 1/10/2010 12983 1
42 1/11/2010 8040 2
43 1/12/2010 19669 3
44 1/13/2010 5684 4
45 1/14/2010 10976 5
46 1/15/2010 7436 6
47 1/16/2010 1.00E-05 7
48 1/17/2010 9910 1
49 1/18/2010 8126 2
50 1/19/2010 11460 3
51 1/20/2010 6602 4
52 1/21/2010 7464 5
53 1/22/2010 6923 6
54 1/23/2010 1.00E-05 7
55 1/24/2010 8358 1
56 1/25/2010 8600 2
57 1/26/2010 7337 3
58 1/27/2010 15696 4
59 1/28/2010 10228 5
60 1/29/2010 9458 6
61 1/30/2010 1.00E-05 7
62 1/31/2010 8800 1
63 2/1/2010 7021 2
64 2/2/2010 9606 3
65 2/3/2010 8337 4
66 2/4/2010 12377 5
67 2/5/2010 9694 6
68 2/6/2010 1.00E-05 7
69 2/7/2010 5364 1
70 2/8/2010 6199 2
71 2/9/2010 6841 3
72 2/10/2010 2841 4
73 2/11/2010 8018 5
74 2/12/2010 6384 6
75 2/13/2010 1.00E-05 7
76 2/14/2010 9549 1
77 2/15/2010 11219 2
78 2/16/2010 14141 3
79 2/17/2010 14340 4
80 2/18/2010 11129 5
81 2/19/2010 10862 6
82 2/20/2010 1.00E-05 7
83 2/21/2010 5109 1
84 2/22/2010 12112 2
85 2/23/2010 10829 3
 86 2/24/2010 12276 4
87 2/25/2010 25585 5
88 2/26/2010 6263 6
89 2/27/2010 1.00E-05 7
90 2/28/2010 8087 1
91 3/1/2010 20423 2
92 3/2/2010 8029 3
93 3/3/2010 13036 4
94 3/4/2010 16895 5
95 3/5/2010 13286 6
96 3/6/2010 1.00E-05 7
97 3/7/2010 9538 1
98 3/8/2010 12472 2
99 3/9/2010 10954 3
100 3/10/2010 16657 4
101 3/11/2010 11548 5
102 3/12/2010 5254 6
103 3/13/2010 1.00E-05 7
104 3/14/2010 3503 1
105 3/15/2010 12272 2
106 3/16/2010 11494 3
107 3/17/2010 12984 4
108 3/18/2010 18726 5
109 3/19/2010 12106 6
110 3/20/2010 1.00E-05 7
111 3/21/2010 11750 1
112 3/22/2010 11015 2
113 3/23/2010 53708 3
114 3/24/2010 9496 4
115 3/25/2010 14313 5
116 3/26/2010 12716 6
117 3/27/2010 1.00E-05 7
118 3/28/2010 14517 1
119 3/29/2010 18221 2
120 3/30/2010 16621 3
121 3/31/2010 12506 4
122 4/1/2010 12527 5
123 4/2/2010 1.00E-05 6
124 4/3/2010 1.00E-05 7
125 4/4/2010 1.00E-05 1
126 4/5/2010 1.00E-05 2
127 4/6/2010 12562 3
128 4/7/2010 13908 4
129 4/8/2010 25018 5
130 4/9/2010 7000 6
131 4/10/2010 1.00E-05 7
132 4/11/2010 8885 1
133 4/12/2010 10360 2
134 4/13/2010 7677 3
135 4/14/2010 14752 4
136 4/15/2010 10253 5
137 4/16/2010 8606 6
138 4/17/2010 1.00E-05 7
139 4/18/2010 7957 1
140 4/19/2010 11111 2
141 4/20/2010 11392 3
142 4/21/2010 8048 4
143 4/22/2010 18113 5
144 4/23/2010 9623 6
145 4/24/2010 1.00E-05 7
146 4/25/2010 7741 1
147 4/26/2010 16661 2
148 4/27/2010 22177 3
149 4/28/2010 17009 4
150 4/29/2010 14249 5
151 4/30/2010 14641 6
152 5/1/2010 1.00E-05 7
153 5/2/2010 5503 1
154 5/3/2010 1.00E-05 2
155 5/4/2010 7765 3
156 5/5/2010 14002 4
157 5/6/2010 10102 5
158 5/7/2010 22268 6
159 5/8/2010 1.00E-05 7
160 5/9/2010 9595 1
161 5/10/2010 13501 2
162 5/11/2010 15104 3
163 5/12/2010 14274 4
164 5/13/2010 24201 5
165 5/14/2010 13848 6
166 5/15/2010 1.00E-05 7
167 5/16/2010 9156 1
168 5/17/2010 12600 2
169 5/18/2010 21520 3
170 5/19/2010 9275 4
171 5/20/2010 14801 5
172 5/21/2010 6770 6
173 5/22/2010 1.00E-05 7
174 5/23/2010 9109 1
175 5/24/2010 30752 2
176 5/25/2010 13110 3
177 5/26/2010 14679 4
178 5/27/2010 17414 5
179 5/28/2010 11443 6
180 5/29/2010 1.00E-05 7
181 5/30/2010 6204 1
182 5/31/2010 1.00E-05 2
183 6/1/2010 7561 3
184 6/2/2010 11009 4
185 6/3/2010 11619 5
186 6/4/2010 5791 6
187 6/5/2010 1.00E-05 7
188 6/6/2010 12983 1
189 6/7/2010 27129 2
190 6/8/2010 24155 3
191 6/9/2010 23228 4
192 6/10/2010 9093 5
193 6/11/2010 17939 6
194 6/12/2010 1.00E-05 7
195 6/13/2010 10448 1
196 6/14/2010 13114 2
197 6/15/2010 11006 3
198 6/16/2010 17313 4
199 6/17/2010 11066 5
200 6/18/2010 5910 6
201 6/19/2010 1.00E-05 7
202 6/20/2010 3417 1
203 6/21/2010 9277 2
204 6/22/2010 5587 3
205 6/23/2010 13982 4
206 6/24/2010 6600 5
207 6/25/2010 6168 6
208 6/26/2010 1.00E-05 7
209 6/27/2010 10851 1
210 6/28/2010 21309 2
211 6/29/2010 18254 3
212 6/30/2010 16695 4
213 7/1/2010 13837 5
214 7/2/2010 5938 6
215 7/3/2010 1.00E-05 7
216 7/4/2010 5302 1
217 7/5/2010 14713 2
218 7/6/2010 10086 3
219 7/7/2010 10632 4
220 7/8/2010 9458 5
221 7/9/2010 4240 6
222 7/10/2010 1.00E-05 7
223 7/11/2010 5711 1
224 7/12/2010 8157 2
225 7/13/2010 7550 3
226 7/14/2010 10266 4
227 7/15/2010 26664 5
228 7/16/2010 10481 6
229 7/17/2010 1.00E-05 7
230 7/18/2010 8209 1
231 7/19/2010 13164 2
232 7/20/2010 10793 3
233 7/21/2010 11475 4
234 7/22/2010 12635 5
235 7/23/2010 11280 6
236 7/24/2010 1.00E-05 7
237 7/25/2010 11143 1
238 7/26/2010 12897 2
239 7/27/2010 13024 3
240 7/28/2010 12014 4
241 7/29/2010 12360 5
242 7/30/2010 7789 6
243 7/31/2010 1.00E-05 7
244 8/1/2010 9702 1
245 8/2/2010 11504 2
246 8/3/2010 14425 3
247 8/4/2010 10027 4
248 8/5/2010 16266 5
249 8/6/2010 9261 6
250 8/7/2010 1.00E-05 7
251 8/8/2010 7624 1
252 8/9/2010 11691 2
253 8/10/2010 6126 3
254 8/11/2010 7258 4
255 8/12/2010 17125 5
256 8/13/2010 12120 6
257 8/14/2010 1.00E-05 7
258 8/15/2010 16144 1
259 8/16/2010 8227 2
260 8/17/2010 13345 3
261 8/18/2010 13558 4
262 8/19/2010 18229 5
263 8/20/2010 15399 6
264 8/21/2010 1.00E-05 7
265 8/22/2010 12687 1
266 8/23/2010 10149 2
267 8/24/2010 17877 3
268 8/25/2010 16246 4
269 8/26/2010 15077 5
270 8/27/2010 5669 6
271 8/28/2010 1.00E-05 7
272 8/29/2010 8766 1
273 8/30/2010 1.00E-05 2
274 8/31/2010 8826 3
275 9/1/2010 5762 4
276 9/2/2010 14735 5
277 9/3/2010 29704 6
278 9/4/2010 1.00E-05 7
279 9/5/2010 6149 1
280 9/6/2010 8369 2
281 9/7/2010 13411 3
282 9/8/2010 8571 4
283 9/9/2010 8611 5
284 9/10/2010 9322 6
285 9/11/2010 1.00E-05 7
286 9/12/2010 7524 1
287 9/13/2010 25861 2
288 9/14/2010 9580 3
289 9/15/2010 11691 4
290 9/16/2010 11727 5
291 9/17/2010 9605 6
292 9/18/2010 1.00E-05 7
293 9/19/2010 12431 1
294 9/20/2010 21809 2
295 9/21/2010 31031 3
296 9/22/2010 12589 4
297 9/23/2010 19470 5
298 9/24/2010 11835 6
299 9/25/2010 1.00E-05 7
300 9/26/2010 13291 1
301 9/27/2010 118428 2
302 9/28/2010 20077 3
303 9/29/2010 19086 4
304 9/30/2010 18889 5
305 10/1/2010 16537 6
306 10/2/2010 1.00E-05 7
307 10/3/2010 13092 1
308 10/4/2010 20393 2
309 10/5/2010 32545 3
310 10/6/2010 20220 4
311 10/7/2010 26156 5
312 10/8/2010 33416 6
313 10/9/2010 1.00E-05 7
314 10/10/2010 10803 1
315 10/11/2010 18301 2
316 10/12/2010 26585 3
317 10/13/2010 23586 4
318 10/14/2010 28008 5
319 10/15/2010 16294 6
320 10/16/2010 1.00E-05 7
321 10/17/2010 18342 1
322 10/18/2010 16274 2
323 10/19/2010 22196 3
324 10/20/2010 22437 4
325 10/21/2010 13924 5
326 10/22/2010 18791 6
327 10/23/2010 1.00E-05 7
328 10/24/2010 14622 1
329 10/25/2010 12941 2
330 10/26/2010 19212 3
331 10/27/2010 11261 4
332 10/28/2010 11363 5
333 10/29/2010 20433 6
334 10/30/2010 1.00E-05 7
335 10/31/2010 15622 1
336 11/1/2010 11406 2
337 11/2/2010 21521 3
338 11/3/2010 13167 4
339 11/4/2010 53833 5
340 11/5/2010 15140 6
341 11/6/2010 1.00E-05 7
342 11/7/2010 17016 1
343 11/8/2010 15301 2
344 11/9/2010 28298 3
345 11/10/2010 30802 4
346 11/11/2010 31317 5
347 11/12/2010 17091 6
348 11/13/2010 1.00E-05 7
349 11/14/2010 15896 1
350 11/15/2010 18195 2
351 11/16/2010 27885 3
352 11/17/2010 21356 4
353 11/18/2010 17031 5
354 11/19/2010 18713 6
355 11/20/2010 1.00E-05 7
356 11/21/2010 16880 1
357 11/22/2010 14511 2
358 11/23/2010 22770 3
359 11/24/2010 23135 4
360 11/25/2010 36293 5
361 11/26/2010 11007 6
362 11/27/2010 1.00E-05 7
363 11/28/2010 14938 1
364 11/29/2010 19358 2
365 11/30/2010 19421 3
366 12/1/2010 21209 4
367 12/2/2010 30923 5
368 12/3/2010 7607 6
369 12/4/2010 1.00E-05 7
370 12/5/2010 13451 1
371 12/6/2010 15359 2
372 12/7/2010 18178 3
373 12/8/2010 18839 4
374 12/9/2010 13476 5
375 12/10/2010 13915 6
376 12/11/2010 1.00E-05 7
377 12/12/2010 8124 1
378 12/13/2010 15007 2
379 12/14/2010 16551 3
380 12/15/2010 18254 4
381 12/16/2010 28100 5
382 12/17/2010 4486 6
383 12/18/2010 1.00E-05 7
384 12/19/2010 3182 1
385 12/20/2010 11802 2
386 12/21/2010 3705 3
387 12/22/2010 2232 4
388 12/23/2010 2177 5
389 12/24/2010 1.00E-05 6
390 12/25/2010 1.00E-05 7
391 12/26/2010 1.00E-05 1
392 12/27/2010 1.00E-05 2
393 12/28/2010 1.00E-05 3
394 12/29/2010 1.00E-05 4
395 12/30/2010 1.00E-05 5
396 12/31/2010 1.00E-05 6
397 1/1/2011 1.00E-05 7
398 1/2/2011 1.00E-05 1
399 1/3/2011 1.00E-05 2
400 1/4/2011 6657 3
401 1/5/2011 17634 4
402 1/6/2011 16337 5
403 1/7/2011 11238 6
404 1/8/2011 1.00E-05 7
405 1/9/2011 7321 1
406 1/10/2011 7371 2
407 1/11/2011 23276 3
408 1/12/2011 6370 4
409 1/13/2011 7462 5
410 1/14/2011 5310 6
411 1/15/2011 1.00E-05 7
412 1/16/2011 4086 1
413 1/17/2011 7349 2
414 1/18/2011 78695 3
415 1/19/2011 6560 4
416 1/20/2011 5728 5
417 1/21/2011 6655 6
418 1/22/2011 1.00E-05 7
419 1/23/2011 5074 1
420 1/24/2011 7623 2
421 1/25/2011 11520 3
422 1/26/2011 8256 4
423 1/27/2011 9049 5
424 1/28/2011 5336 6
425 1/29/2011 1.00E-05 7
426 1/30/2011 3383 1
427 1/31/2011 9409 2
428 2/1/2011 13518 3
429 2/2/2011 8162 4
430 2/3/2011 14496 5
431 2/4/2011 10216 6
432 2/5/2011 1.00E-05 7
433 2/6/2011 2036 1
434 2/7/2011 7994 2
435 2/8/2011 7123 3
436 2/9/2011 2423 4
437 2/10/2011 11101 5
438 2/11/2011 8674 6
439 2/12/2011 1.00E-05 7
440 2/13/2011 2723 1
441 2/14/2011 10226 2
442 2/15/2011 10275 3
443 2/16/2011 12822 4
444 2/17/2011 11655 5
445 2/18/2011 7562 6
446 2/19/2011 1.00E-05 7
447 2/20/2011 5218 1
448 2/21/2011 6221 2
449 2/22/2011 17981 3
450 2/23/2011 10908 4
451 2/24/2011 10777 5
452 2/25/2011 9168 6
453 2/26/2011 1.00E-05 7
454 2/27/2011 4535 1
455 2/28/2011 6994 2
456 3/1/2011 7606 3
457 3/2/2011 8143 4
458 3/3/2011 7790 5
459 3/4/2011 11175 6
460 3/5/2011 1.00E-05 7
461 3/6/2011 5026 1
462 3/7/2011 10718 2
463 3/8/2011 12265 3
464 3/9/2011 9832 4
465 3/10/2011 9956 5
466 3/11/2011 8304 6
467 3/12/2011 1.00E-05 7
468 3/13/2011 2548 1
469 3/14/2011 10119 2
470 3/15/2011 6265 3
471 3/16/2011 12228 4
472 3/17/2011 16463 5
473 3/18/2011 11697 6
474 3/19/2011 1.00E-05 7
475 3/20/2011 12585 1
476 3/21/2011 9216 2
476 3/22/2011 11738 3
476 3/23/2011 10982 4
476 3/24/2011 16997 5
476 3/25/2011 9986 6
476 3/26/2011 1.00E-05 7
476 3/27/2011 4434 1
476 3/28/2011 8200 2
476 3/29/2011 11997 3
476 3/30/2011 17887 4
476 3/31/2011 11269 5
476 4/1/2011 17122 6
476 4/2/2011 1.00E-05 7
476 4/3/2011 5646 1
476 4/4/2011 10931 2
476 4/5/2011 10127 3
476 4/6/2011 7356 4
476 4/7/2011 8020 5
476 4/8/2011 10571 6
476 4/9/2011 1.00E-05 7
476 4/10/2011 5413 1
476 4/11/2011 11398 2
476 4/12/2011 14388 3
476 4/13/2011 18074 4
476 4/14/2011 16816 5
476 4/15/2011 10194 6
476 4/16/2011 1.00E-05 7
476 4/17/2011 7583 1
476 4/18/2011 19582 2
476 4/19/2011 10820 3
476 4/20/2011 17319 4
476 4/21/2011 15387 5
476 4/22/2011 1.00E-05 6
476 4/23/2011 1.00E-05 7
476 4/24/2011 1.00E-05 1
476 4/25/2011 1.00E-05 2
476 4/26/2011 14029 3
476 4/27/2011 16918 4
476 4/28/2011 11900 5
476 4/29/2011 1.00E-05 6
476 4/30/2011 1.00E-05 7
476 5/1/2011 3167 1
476 5/2/2011 1.00E-05 2
476 5/3/2011 9556 3
476 5/4/2011 15602 4
476 5/5/2011 13879 5
476 5/6/2011 16055 6
476 5/7/2011 1.00E-05 7
476 5/8/2011 9396 1
476 5/9/2011 10448 2
476 5/10/2011 14460 3
476 5/11/2011 15980 4
476 5/12/2011 14528 5
476 5/13/2011 11693 6
476 5/14/2011 1.00E-05 7
476 5/15/2011 4488 1
476 5/16/2011 12578 2
476 5/17/2011 15718 3
476 5/18/2011 17172 4
476 5/19/2011 14698 5
476 5/20/2011 13920 6
476 5/21/2011 1.00E-05 7
476 5/22/2011 11379 1
476 5/23/2011 15474 2
476 5/24/2011 14246 3
476 5/25/2011 10233 4
476 5/26/2011 10097 5
476 5/27/2011 13678 6
476 5/28/2011 1.00E-05 7
476 5/29/2011 3809 1
476 5/30/2011 1.00E-05 2
476 5/31/2011 8863 3
476 6/1/2011 6092 4
476 6/2/2011 12583 5
476 6/3/2011 6418 6
476 6/4/2011 1.00E-05 7
476 6/5/2011 10308 1
476 6/6/2011 7835 2
476 6/7/2011 16997 3
476 6/8/2011 14185 4
476 6/9/2011 23866 5
476 6/10/2011 6435 6
476 6/11/2011 1.00E-05 7
476 6/12/2011 8393 1
476 6/13/2011 8013 2
476 6/14/2011 12960 3
476 6/15/2011 10079 4
476 6/16/2011 18106 5
476 6/17/2011 9041 6
476 6/18/2011 1.00E-05 7
476 6/19/2011 9864 1
476 6/20/2011 10196 2
476 6/21/2011 11515 3
476 6/22/2011 11529 4
476 6/23/2011 12668 5
476 6/24/2011 7783 6
476 6/25/2011 1.00E-05 7
476 6/26/2011 3288 1
476 6/27/2011 8639 2
476 6/28/2011 9702 3
476 6/29/2011 5365 4
476 6/30/2011 18461 5
476 7/1/2011 6058 6
476 7/2/2011 1.00E-05 7
476 7/3/2011 3091 1
476 7/4/2011 9426 2
476 7/5/2011 17061 3
476 7/6/2011 13277 4
476 7/7/2011 16678 5
476 7/8/2011 8650 6
476 7/9/2011 1.00E-05 7
476 7/10/2011 4204 1
476 7/11/2011 12374 2
476 7/12/2011 10252 3
476 7/13/2011 9018 4
476 7/14/2011 12912 5
476 7/15/2011 5802 6
476 7/16/2011 1.00E-05 7
476 7/17/2011 10655 1
476 7/18/2011 8418 2
476 7/19/2011 19245 3
476 7/20/2011 14352 4
476 7/21/2011 17727 5
476 7/22/2011 7313 6
476 7/23/2011 1.00E-05 7
476 7/24/2011 16527 1
476 7/25/2011 12228 2
476 7/26/2011 12150 3
476 7/27/2011 9280 4
476 7/28/2011 25125 5
476 7/29/2011 10380 6
476 7/30/2011 1.00E-05 7
476 7/31/2011 9350 1
476 8/1/2011 10434 2
476 8/2/2011 10372 3
476 8/3/2011 15102 4
476 8/4/2011 35470 5
476 8/5/2011 9925 6
476 8/6/2011 1.00E-05 7
476 8/7/2011 5114 1
476 8/8/2011 10919 2
476 8/9/2011 7604 3
476 8/10/2011 10749 4
476 8/11/2011 19802 5
476 8/12/2011 7715 6
476 8/13/2011 1.00E-05 7
476 8/14/2011 3169 1
476 8/15/2011 7195 2
476 8/16/2011 10285 3
476 8/17/2011 23273 4
476 8/18/2011 18291 5
476 8/19/2011 7995 6
476 8/20/2011 1.00E-05 7
476 8/21/2011 6667 1
476 8/22/2011 14200 2
476 8/23/2011 11553 3
476 8/24/2011 25432 4
476 8/25/2011 10668 5
476 8/26/2011 9689 6
476 8/27/2011 1.00E-05 7
476 8/28/2011 5903 1
476 8/29/2011 1.00E-05 2
476 8/30/2011 4025 3
476 8/31/2011 8551 4
476 9/1/2011 22134 5
476 9/2/2011 13687 6
476 9/3/2011 1.00E-05 7
476 9/4/2011 7477 1
476 9/5/2011 15972 2
476 9/6/2011 12485 3
476 9/7/2011 10217 4
476 9/8/2011 13197 5
476 9/9/2011 12507 6
476 9/10/2011 1.00E-05 7
476 9/11/2011 19811 1
476 9/12/2011 16323 2
476 9/13/2011 25618 3
476 9/14/2011 11476 4
476 9/15/2011 25914 5
476 9/16/2011 13325 6
476 9/17/2011 1.00E-05 7
476 9/18/2011 8937 1
476 9/19/2011 12281 2
476 9/20/2011 41081 3
476 9/21/2011 15829 4
476 9/22/2011 26339 5
476 9/23/2011 15064 6
476 9/24/2011 1.00E-05 7
476 9/25/2011 18096 1
476 9/26/2011 14085 2
476 9/27/2011 18706 3
476 9/28/2011 20655 4
476 9/29/2011 25042 5
476 9/30/2011 17164 6
476 10/1/2011 1.00E-05 7
476 10/2/2011 8322 1
476 10/3/2011 24401 2
476 10/4/2011 22581 3
476 10/5/2011 32577 4
476 10/6/2011 30043 5
476 10/7/2011 24870 6
476 10/8/2011 1.00E-05 7
476 10/9/2011 7263 1
476 10/10/2011 22213 2
476 10/11/2011 19622 3
476 10/12/2011 12793 4
476 10/13/2011 13270 5
476 10/14/2011 13744 6
476 10/15/2011 1.00E-05 7
476 10/16/2011 8649 1
476 10/17/2011 18119 2
476 10/18/2011 23182 3
476 10/19/2011 14113 4
476 10/20/2011 16307 5
476 10/21/2011 19800 6
476 10/22/2011 1.00E-05 7
476 10/23/2011 6953 1
476 10/24/2011 22993 2
476 10/25/2011 23535 3
476 10/26/2011 17933 4
476 10/27/2011 24317 5
476 10/28/2011 16642 6
476 10/29/2011 1.00E-05 7
476 10/30/2011 17537 1
476 10/31/2011 12896 2
476 11/1/2011 14601 3
476 11/2/2011 22602 4
476 11/3/2011 31458 5
476 11/4/2011 31023 6
476 11/5/2011 1.00E-05 7
476 11/6/2011 18129 1
476 11/7/2011 14860 2
476 11/8/2011 20227 3
476 11/9/2011 35722 4
476 11/10/2011 27777 5
476 11/11/2011 18995 6
476 11/12/2011 1.00E-05 7
476 11/13/2011 17021 1
476 11/14/2011 28934 2
476 11/15/2011 21307 3
476 11/16/2011 22943 4
476 11/17/2011 21726 5
476 11/18/2011 16790 6
476 11/19/2011 1.00E-05 7
476 11/20/2011 16909 1
476 11/21/2011 22327 2
476 11/22/2011 28227 3
476 11/23/2011 28487 4
476 11/24/2011 19045 5
476 11/25/2011 25123 6
476 11/26/2011 1.00E-05 7
476 11/27/2011 10082 1
476 11/28/2011 25395 2
476 11/29/2011 22182 3
476 11/30/2011 18880 4
476 12/1/2011 23464 5
476 12/2/2011 22853 6
476 12/3/2011 1.00E-05 7
476 12/4/2011 9741 1
476 12/5/2011 36596 2
476 12/6/2011 25823 3
476 12/7/2011 28988 4
476 12/8/2011 25369 5
476 12/9/2011 87137 6
Simple average Moving average of 3 Moving average of 7 seasonal average
Weighted moving average CWMA Simple exponential smoothing
Linear Regression
weighted moving average w1
0.537736434264984

CWMA alpha
0.38965362521632
Ses alpha
0.0868428527625846
Linear Regression
-1.40824362587163
11042.1721449386

training
MSE CWMA
MSE SES
MSE WMA

Model Naïve
MSE
MAE
MPE
RMSE
MAPE
w2 w3 sum
0.199160903770691 0.26310266196433 1

11042.1721449386

S.naive Simple average Moving average of 3 Moving average of 12

seasonal average Weighted moving average CWMA Simple exponential smoothing
 Simple methods
sales Naïve S.na
Simple average Moving average of 3 Mov
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
12/1/09 1/1/10 2/1/10 3/1/10 4/1/10 5/1/10 6/1/10 7/1/10 8/1/10 9/1/10
Linear Regression
mple methods
Naïve S.naive
Moving average of 3 Moving average of 7

/10 7/1/10 8/1/10 9/1/10 10/1/10 11/1/10 12/1/10 1/1/11 2/1/11 3/1/11