Friday, August 15, 2025

Welthauptstadt Germania; an update on D.C.


So the eagle has landed, and boy fuckin' howdy are the Bad Guys on the run:

"Between the first two nights of the federal takeover, 66 arrests were made, with another 45 being made Wednesday — numbers that Parker argued paled in comparison to the potential millions of dollars the deployment will cost taxpayers.

“In fact, 1,450 officers participated in Tuesday night’s operation to arrest 43 people; this comes to 34 officers per alleged offender,” Parker wrote.

“On Wednesday night, 1,650 officers participated, which breaks down to about 37 officers per alleged criminal. And on Thursday, 20 officers arrested a plainly overwrought man who allegedly threw a sandwich at a Customs and Border Protection agent at 14th and U streets NW. Your tax dollars at work.”

Which takes us back to the first post about this, which asked several questions but not, perhaps, the most important one, which is

"What, exactly, are all these GIs going to actually do?"

These aren't civil cops. They're Joe and Molly, weekend warriors, cooks, bakers, mechanics, grunts, MPs, PAC clerks. You don't enforce law with fucking PAC clerks, you fill in forms.

That has been lingering in the back of my mind since I posted earlier.

Don't handwave. Be specific. What is one of these DCARNG "presence patrols" going to do?

Can you imagine a couple of the guys from your local Guard unit chasing robbers like T.J. Fucking Hooker? Rousting bums from the park? How? At bayonet point? With just their amazing Guard jedi mind trick powers?

Will they walk around hand-in-hand with the newly-federalized D.C. cops the way the Royal Army did the RUC in Belfast?



And if so, why? The IRA was an armed insurgency. Backing the Ulster cops with soldiers made perfect sense (not that I'm arguing that the British occupation of Ireland made or makes sense in any fashion, just that if you're going to try and do policing during a guerilla war you kinda have to do it that way...) but the D.C. cops aren't fighting guerrillas.

So...what? What are all these GIs shambling around the Tidal Basin doing? They're on our fucking taxpayer dime, so I'd sure like to know if my money is being wasted on the military equivalent of a multi-million dollar gold-encrusted fucking ballroom.

Just sayin'.

Update 8/17: So, couple of things. 

First, here's where all these Sicherheitsdienst commandos are strolling:

 


As the Fallows account post that contains this image notes; this ain't where the crooks are.

These are the "good" neighborhoods and where the public attractions like the monuments and other touristy shit are. These jokers are not Crushing Crime. They're wandering around doing fucking presence patrols, and about as uselessly as in Kandahar or Fallujah.

The other fucked-up part? Porky has got wingnut governors tripping over themselves to send GIs; Ohio, South Carolina, and West Virginia.

Okay, now. I mentioned that how you could do this here in Oregon is bus guys from downstate, or out in the Greater Idaho parts of the joint to bust Portland heads, but that the District is too small for that. 

This is how you get around that.

But...South Carolina? Seriously? You're gonna send those fucking crackers to D.C.? Now that's gonna fucking end well. That's just mindbendingly ridiculous. 

I get it; just like the rest of this, it's not about anything real. In this case it's wingnut governors competing to see who can get their tongue the furthest up Tubby'a anus.

Doesn't make it any less goddamn irritating, mind. 

Tuesday, August 12, 2025

Presence patrol

 Apparently we're doing this... 

 
...because it worked so fucking well in Baghdad and Kabul:

"President Donald Trump announced he is placing the Washington, DC, police department “under direct federal control” and deploying National Guard troops to the nation’s capital..."

It's easy enough to sanewash or handwave why the drooling moron is doing this, but to me the real issues are in the mechanics of the actual doing. Because...

1)  Soldiers are shitty cops.

That's also #2 through infinity.

Soldiers are trained to kill people and break shit. That's the nature of the business. So whenever you try to use them as "cops" (call them "OOTW", "assistance to the host nation", "peacekeeping", "occupation", whatever...) you run a genuine risk that that training will break out in unforeseen and usually disruptive or even dangerous ways.

Think the paras in Belfast, or the 325th in Fallujah. If you put Joe and Molly in a tight spot, they're going to default to their training, which is not "cop".

Mind you, as I think I've hammered hard on here, even "cops" aren't often very good at "peacekeeping". Confronted with people they dislike and distrust their go-to reaction is to pull out the club and the pepper spray and start shit.

So using soldiers to police D.C.? Just in and of itself that's not a smart thing, because

2) The things Trump is telling these GIs to do would be difficult to impossible even for truly gifted and well-led municipal leaders, police and social service organizations and staff.

"The Homeless will have to move out, IMMEDIATELY."

Where? 

How?

As I noted when the City of Portland had this brilliant idea a couple of years back, what the actual fuck do you expect these poor bastards to do? 

"The Good People for Portland are nutty enough about the hobo camps as it is. Can you imagine the reaction to wandering groups of encumbered homeless people like some sort of Mongol horde with shopping carts instead of horses? And this is the supposedly GOOD idea the Portland city government is proposing?"

Yeahno. 

So here's an interesting note on this whole "round 'em up and shove 'em in The Camps" thing.

I had a lovely evening with a dear friend not too long ago. She's a retired elementary school teacher, grandma, traveler, thoughtful and honest and kind. 


(FWIW, the tradition around here is that we don't show people's faces without their permission, but feet are fair game...)

But she's also a longtime Portlander who's had bad experience with homeless/feral street people in the past and, like the rest of us, is sick and tired of the trash and the noise and the apparent menace. 

She's all in on these camps.

"They can get help there. They can get treatment. They can get their lives straightened out".

My response was "Okay, let's say that happens." (thinking "we don't want to pay for that now, why would we pay for that once the hoboes are locked up out of sight..?") "Then what?"

Once you've caught-and-released these people? They're still broke. Still unable to afford a roof, a shower, a toilet. Still unemployed, or underemployed to where they don't make enough to pay for those. 

"We will give you places to stay..."

WTF? Seriously? How? Where? No, show your work. Where are these Homeless Havens? Who pays for them? Who maintains, and runs, and cleans them?

And how do soldiers help do all that?

Is Tubby suggesting that the D.C. Guard set up Homeless Refugee Camps in Bradenburg? Silver Spring? How? Who's gonna pay for that, and for how long?

And while we're on the subject of the D.C. Guard...

3) We're probably not talking the most elite of military material here or the best military experience for doing this, either.

Fatso might think that wearing the tree suit makes you a combination Rambo and Clausewitz (drink!), but in my experience a lot of Guard joes were fairly average at best, and a fair number of them had little or no active time. 

Farkling about Southwest Asia has changed that...but not for the better. So the ones that do have RA experience? A lot of these jokers will have "presence patrol" experience in Iraq or Afghanistan and associate that with policing at best unwelcoming and at worst dangerously hostile places.

Putting someone whose "peacekeeping" experience is Kandahar or Basra or Baghdad in NW Washington D.C.? Probably not a good idea.

I'm guessing that the primary unit that will be tasked for this is the 372nd Military Police Battalion. The D.C. Guard website says that the "Red Hand" outfit...

"...plays a crucial role in conducting traffic control, corrections, security and mobility support, especially during National Special Security Events, like Presidential Inaugurations and when deployed, such as the 276th Military Police Company’s deployment to Guantanamo Naval Base, Cuba in 2016."

So pretty much cage-kickers, with a short c.v. in crowd control. Not sure how that works on the Mean Streets of Foggy Bottom.

So this looks a lot like the "depopulation" thing we just talked about; a "one-simple-trick" "conservative" "solution" to a difficult and complex (and, I note passing, an imaginary-in-the-"no, crime and vandalism and mayhem are not really running wild in D.C."-sense, but that's pointless to drag in because this isn't about an actual thing but the usual "conservative" reality-is-what-I-believe-it-is bugnuttery) problem.

One of the worst aspects of Trumpism is the grinding stupidity of it.

It's exhausting. The daily piling of stupid on nonsensical on corrupt on ignorant all founded on ridiculous 4chan gibberish. Trying to push back against it is like shoveling water; it's ALL just bullshit all the way down, so there's no actual logic or reason or sense involved, there's no bedrock there outside bafflegab, so there's no pinning down these people or their ideas to beat the life out of them. They just ooze from one idiotic notion to another to justify whatever they want to do, because that's all it's really about. 

It's what they want to do and now they can.

And that it pisses their enemies off?

That's just gravy. 

Friday, August 08, 2025

Breeding press

 

 
No. Not that one.

The folks over at Lawyers, Guns & Money have several posts up about "depopulation" and declining birth rates, which are apparently a global trend.

The first linked piece posits that it's cell phones.

Kidding. Sorta. The conclusion is that:

"...we do have this big increase in personal online entertainment, whether it’s watching shows on Netflix, sports bets — online gambling has become absolutely massive across Brazil and Latin America more broadly. You can go on PornHub. Online connectivity enables people to stroll on Instagram, play Call of Duty, World of Warcraft.

So we are all becoming — it’s not just being single — we’re all retreating into this digital solitude. I think that’s partly because technology makes it nicer and easier to stay at home — you can work from home — and some of these apps are so hyper-engaging that you get distracted by the constant stream of dopamine hits as each app, as each technology company competes against others to keep its users hooked."

IOW we have more fun "practicing while I'm alone" than we do with some other human being in meatspace.

There may be something to that, but I'm not sure it's smartphones per se.

I think I've discussed this before. 

(In fact I know I did, back in April)

The thing with kids is that you the parents end up spending LOTS of time and money on kids.

At at time when there's lots of fun things to spend time and money on. Travel. Entertainment. Porn. Games. Sports. Leisure. 

As opposed to changing diapers, taxiing to soccer games, reading bedtime stories, kissing owies.

Are those good? Are they worth it?

I think so.

But based on global fertility? A lot of people disagree.

There are real risks about that, though, including the reality that our modern industrial welfare states depend on a continual supply of people paying into the system to pay for us olds. And for them when they get old. If the pillar becomes a pyramid, with fewer and fewer paying in and more and more pulling out..?

Yike.

The second LG&M post makes a good point about our New MAGAt Moron Overlords, tho; 

"The triumph of the authentic Trumpian stupidity is reflected in the extent to which it has made one particular belief absolutely central to all political discourse in the Republican party, and on the American right wing generally.

That particular belief is the key concept at the core of the stupid person’s world view, and it is this: All of these apparently complicated problems that trouble our society, and that interfere with our impending return to greatness, are actually very simple.  For every social problem there is always a simple solution – one weird trick – that solves the problem perfectly.  All you need is common sense, and an unwillingness to be fooled by the so-called experts.  This is the stupid person’s Nicene Creed.

Moreover, stupid people love simple answers to complex questions, because such answers validate their entire world view."

Yes. Oh fuuuuuuuck yes.

Is there an answer to this slide into a post-population world?

If there is I don't know of it.

But if there is, I do know this; it won't be simple.

Or easy.

Or quick.

Tuesday, July 29, 2025

The dreams of the warriors

So here's a weird example of how my mind works.

Last evening I drove out to downtown Beaverton and watched the 2009 anime film "Summer Wars". It was great popcorn, gorgeously animated in the best anime style, and hit all the mange/anime-lover (i.e. me...) buttons; high school romance/angst, family drama, high-tech danger, goofy secondary characters, samurai, squid, baseball. It's fun.


After the show I went and looked it up and was unsurprised that the director was the same person who did "Belle", the gorgeous anime version of Beauty and the Beast that my daughter took us too several years ago. 
 
Well done, Hosoda-san.
 
Anyway, as I was reading I was a bit bugged by the title.
 
Yes, it's about a war (well, "cyber-war") and it takes place over two days in summer, so, "summer wars", fine. 
 
But.
 
The Japanese title is "サマーウォーズ in katakana, which is "Hepburnized" in the Wiki as "Samā Wōzu".
 
Okay, now; because I'm me (and do military history and martial sports that have Japanese connections) I'm very familiar with the Japanese word for "war".
 
And it's not "Wozu", it's 戦争, "Sensō". 
 
I tried looking for some sort of katakana or hirigana versions that could be translated as "wozu". 
 
Nope.
 
Then I plugged the katakana title directly into romaji, and Dr. Google gave me this: "Samāu~ōzu".  
 
That's also not "war"; indeed, try and look up "ozu" and all you you get is either a place name or a personal/family name. All the other links went directly back to the film, suggesting that the katakana don't mean "summer wars" in the general sense of "wars fought during the summer" but specifically "the movie "Summer Wars".
 
So now I'm baffled; is the title some sort of phonetic "English"? "Summer" ("sama") "Wars" ("wozu") invented just for the flick? If so...why? Why not just call it 戦争; "Natsu Sensō", "Summer War(s)"? Is there some particular reason or meaning for naming it the way they did?
 
I'm now hooked and I want to know.
 
Doesn't make the flick any less fun; indeed, now I want to know more about the movie. 
 
And that's so me. 
 
Sad, but there it is.
 

What fresh hell is this..?

I'm a soccer fan, but one thing I've been able to miss is the appalling "barstool sports" sort of "fan culture" shit. Apparently it's a thing, and not a good one. One of the staff over at Lawyers, Guns, & Money has a post up about this freakish "sports fandom fandom" that cuts to the real heart of our national problem:

"There are so many parallels between the popularity of Barstool and MAGA, it’s frightening. In fact, as this podcast very astutely points out, things like Barstool and Gamergate were very much proving grounds for MAGA. They’re all cults centered around the most toxic idiots on the internet. They’re all troll armies. They all have an undisguised loathing for women and POC. And most importantly they’re all movements and moments that give people permission to be their absolute worst selves.

Editing to say: It really hit me how much MAGA centers on monetizing being awful and how absolutely dystopian that is"

Tl:dr? "MAGA means never having to say you're sorry you're an asshole."

Here's my question, though; what the everlovin' fuck do you do with someone who WANTS to be an unapologetic asshole?

Seriously.

How do you possible "reach" someone like that?

Because the implicit part of being an unapologetic asshole is that you want, expect, and will fight to ensure that the "public square" is asshole-friendly. You're gonna do everything you can to ensure that there's no, not the slightest hint of, pushback against your assholery. You're never going to back down, give up, or give in.

Which is what we've seen from MAGA since Day Zero.

These dickstains have been loud and proud up in the grille of everyone and everything that has tried to stand up to or against them. Now, especially, since they have all the levers of federal power they've forced their opponents to bend the knee. And to their eternal shame, many have; universities, media conglomerates, pundits, functionaries.

Which is why I keep repeating; we, the non-asshole non-MAGAts, need to realize that

We

Are

At

War

with these people and their institutions.

They know they are; their openly stated objectives are to crush us and destroy everything we value. They are not our fellow Americans, not our fellow citizens, but our mortal enemies.

Because that sort of person is effectively unredeemable our battle must not be directed at them but against those around them, the non-voter, the marginal MAGAt (who cannot be won but who can be disheartened or frightened and terrorized into passivity), the "independent".

We have to detach and discourage the auxiliaries if we are ever to hope to crush the MAGAts.

Because that has to be our ultimate goal.

The lessons of Reconstruction, and the post-WW2 occupations, need to be absorbed this time.

After WW2 we hung the enemies, and hunted and terrified their partisans into fearful silence. After our own Civil War we pardoned the enemies and, as part of reconciling our society, let them craft their shitty Lost Cause stories into our national myths.

But. 

Assholes are always gonna asshole. There's no changing them, or that. Instead they must be forced into silence, and since they feel no shame, by fear. Fear of retribution. Fear of consequences. 

After 1945 we learned what we'd failed to absorb after 1865. 

Bill Sherman said "Fear is the beginning of wisdom". 

But for those who choose never to be wise, fear is, at least, the beginning of silence.

In my personal opinion? The best silence for these people is the silence of the grave. As Stalin was wont to say, if people are the problem? No people, no problem.

But I will take living but fearful silence if that's the best we can get from them.


Monday, July 14, 2025

Decisive Battles: Frontiers 1914 - Part 6a: The Crisis (Lorraine and The Ardennes).

I apologize for the long delay. I won't pretend differently than that I just lost heart for some time.

The rolling clusterfuck that is my country's descent into stupid white Christopathic fascism simply got too much for me to ignore but too hopeless for me to talk about.

It seemed to be louche to be discussing a horrific event of more than a century ago when the horrific events were and are happening here, now, all around me. I still haven't really changed my opinion on that; like hanging, ongoing Naziism concentrates the mind wonderfully. I'm still hanging on in a state of barely suppressed rage, wanting like Caligula (as I've said repeatedly) that all these scum, from Trump through Miller, Hegseth, Bondi, Bannon, Johnson...all the way down to the grotesque freaks like Ernst and Greene...had one throat, the better to slit it.

And for Fucking Trump? That's the pisser. Jim Wright nails it hard here:

It's being ruled by these fucking goobers that's more infuriating than anything else.

That said. there's only so much I can do without access to heavy weaponry, so at some point I might as well get back to the events of August 1914.


So...where'd we leave off?

Back in May we took a short diversion into the question of "How much did signals intelligence play into the events of the first month of World War 1 in the West?" to discover that there seems to be no definitive answer, at least not the way history understands it. In the East, yes: German radio intercepts were critical to the crushing victory at Tannenberg. 

In the West? Maybe, sorta, kind of, tangled up with the other intelligence sources.

Earlier in that month we'd looked at the opening tactical moves, from the first engagements to roughly the third week of August. That meant three very different things in different parts of the front:
- In Belgium, the reduction of the fortresses of Liege (and to a lesser extent, Namur), and the beginning of the German "right wing sweep" predicated in the Schlieffen Plan,
- In Alsace and Lorraine, a back-and-forth struggle; a French offensive per Plan XVII, an unplanned (but effective) German counteroffensive - but one that contradicted the Spirit of Schlieffen by not letting the French jam their head into the mangle - and,
- In the center, through the Ardennes, the "curious case of the German in the nighttime"; that is, the French recon actions that suggested the opposite of the tactical reality and convinced GEN Joffre that an offensive into what he thought was a lightly-defended hinge would cut off and disrupt the German right wing.


We're going to talk about that a LOT, because it turned out to be pretty critical.

Before that we discussed mobilization and the opening moves in February,

Aerial reconnaissance assets back in November 2024,

Ground reconnaissance - mostly cavalry - back in September 2024,

 Even further back, we discussed French war plans in August 2024 and German war plans in July,

 And, first of all, the geopolitical setting of the whole nutroll a year ago.


Whew. I'm already exhausted just from recounting all that.

Okay, well, now we're up to date, let's break this post out.

First, we're going to use the same breakdown we've been using and discuss the Frontier in geographical areas, these:


I'm going to discuss two of these three in this post.

The Southeast - the provinces of Alsace and Lorraine - because it's relatively simple and straightforward tactically.

And the Center - the Belgian Ardennes - because while it's not simple, it's less complicated than the Northwest and the issues we're concentrating on (reconnaissance) are important, but somewhat subordinate to problems of doctrine and training in explaining the Allied failure there.

Regardless of the location, however, this and the following post, of all our reflections on the Frontiers, are perhaps the most essential.  

As the title implies, this is where and when the critical engagements occurred. This was the critical time period in which the Allies lost the battle but could have lost the war and didn't. And the German Army won most of the battles but not decisively enough to win the larger war.

In the Southeast the "Battle of Lorraine" included several fights that have been described as separate engagements those were really a series of running fights along a fairly restricted corridor, beginning with the French offensive in the second week of August, then a German counteroffensive in the beginning of the third week, and a French defensive stand at the end of the week.

In the Center a series of closely physically- and temporally-spaced engagements now collectively termed the "Battle of the Ardennes" began sometime between 20 AUG and 21 AUG, and were effectively over except for French withdrawal and (fairly leisurely) German pursuit by 23 AUG.

In the Northwest the fights were more geographically distinct, and have been divided into the "Battle of Charleroi" between the French 5eme Armee and the German 2.Feldarmee and 3.Feldarmee that began with cavalry encounters on 20 AUG and was ended by a relatively orderly French withdrawal on 23 AUG, and the "Battle of Mons" between the British BEF and 1.Feldarmee which began with skirmishing on 21 AUG, flared to formed cavalry unit contact on 22 AUG, even further to full infantry and artillery assault on 23 AUG, and ended with British retreat in the early morning of 24 AUG.


I don't want to dig too deeply into the tactical minutiae of these engagements.

First, because as the first really "big" engagements of WW1 they've been covered to death. There's no point in my regurgitating Edmonds (1926) about Mons, or Zuber (2007) on Ardennes.

Second, because our initial thesis was that it's possible that reconnaissance inadequacies, or failures, played a large part in the Allied defeats along the frontiers. As I wrote in Part 1:

"Was this (the Allied defeat) the result of both sides' failure to anticipate the tactical "facts on the ground" affecting reconnaissance and making plans that assumed conditions that no longer existed?

Or was it technical, the conditions themselves, that had changed beyond the ability of clever plans to account for them? Was the problem that the older means and methods of reconnaissance - horse cavalry and light infantry - and security were just no longer effective in the tactical environment of 1914, and the new techniques - air reconnaissance - un- or under-developed to the point where the commanders didn't receive (or were unable to process) the intelligence?"

So that's what I'm going to focus on here; were there problems with the reconnaissance and, through it, intelligence - collection, interpretation, and/or dissemination - that led to problematic or fatal tactical, grand tactical, or even strategic errors by the Allied (or German) leadership?

Before we dive deep into these engagements, we should dispense with the least-most-critical of the Frontiers fights during this period, the "Battle of Lorraine".

The Crisis - Southeast (20-25 AUG) 

 


The southeastern piece of Frontiers was actually several engagements: the Battle of Morhange-Sarrebourg (20-22 AUG), the Battle of the Trouée de Charmes (24-25 AUG), and the Battle of Rozelieures (25 AUG)

We talked about the French defeat at Morhange-Sarrebourg in Part 5b ("First Encounters"), noting that the German success and French failure had a lot to do with the respective success and failure of their respective air arms:

"Bowdon (2017) notes that poor weather and the press of retrograde displacements had limited air activity between 15 and 17 AUG, but that on 18 AUG a patrol from FFA 20 (the XIV.Armeekorps flying detachment) found an untenanted gap in the French FLOT. The 1er Armee was still attacking to the east towards Strassburg, while 2eme Armee had turned north to envelop Metz.

After a day to prepare the counterattack, now known as the "Battle of Morhange-Sarrebourg", kicked off on 20 AUG."

In what seems to have been a Frontiers meme, the Armee d'L'Air was unable to perform similarly successful flights over the Bavarian assembly areas to suss out the counteroffensive, so Rupprecht's landsers kicked ass and sent the French fantassins, those who survived, reeling back south and west.

To the gap between the fortress complexes of Toul to the northwest and Epinal to the southeast, where the unfortified gap of Trouée de Charmes provided a possible high-speed avenue of approach into the industrial heart of northeastern France.


As the linked Wiki article puts it succinctly:

"The French had suffered a crushing defeat in the Battle of Lorraine and retreated in disorder. Helmuth von Moltke the Younger, the Chief of the General Staff of the German army had a difficult choice. The apparent collapse of the French Second Army (General Noël de Castelnau) made possible a breakthrough at the Trouée de Charmes (Charmes Gap) and the encirclement of all French troops in Lorraine and the Ardennes."

For once in August the French fliers seem to have gotten there first with the most; an air recon patrol spotted Rupprecht's troops pushing into the gap, and GEN Castelnau effectively used firepower and local maneuver to hammer the 6.Feldarmee.

The Bavarians weren't finished, mind; though it's outside the scope of this work, Rupprecht continued to slam his soldiers' heads against the defenses in Lorraine, culminating in the brutally indecisive Battle of Grand Couronné in September that helped blunt the German attempt to win the war with the Schlieffen coup de main. The linked article cites Herwig (2009) that:

"...in September, (6.Feldarmee) suffered 28,957 casualties, with 6,687 men killed, despite half the army being en route to Belgium; most lost in the fighting at the Grand Couronné. The (7.Feldarmee) suffered 31,887 casualties, of which 10,384 men killed. 

The German army never calculated a definitive casualty list for the fighting in Alsace and Lorraine but the Bavarian official historian Karl Deuringer made a guess of 60 per cent casualties, of which 15 per cent were killed, in the fifty infantry brigades which fought in the region, which would amount to 66,000 casualties, 17,000 killed, which the Verlustliste (ten-day casualty reports) bore out."

After September the Lorraine front calcified and didn't move until 1918. So:

1) yes, there were some critical reconnaissance failures in the Southeast in August, notably the French failure to effectively use their cavalry and aerial recon elements to find the Bavarians massing for the counterattack of 20 AUG. 

(If you wanted to be grudging you could include the 6.Feldarmee failure to figure out some weakness to pry open 2eme Armee's defenses in the Charmes Gap, for all that Bowdin (2017) goes out of his way to point out several minor recon successes by the Bavarian FFA 2b and 3b. But the reality was that the terrain didn't really allow for maneuver, and Moltke's orders to "relentlessly pursue" the supposedly-broken 2eme Armee didn't give Rupprecht the option of not at least trying a shove at the French defenses.)

2) no, those failures weren't decisive. They cost lives, so awful in that. But the tactical reality of the Lorraine topography is that neither the French (before Morhange) or the Germans (before Couronné) could have broken through into the open country behind the trench lines, no matter how good the reconnaissance. 

So we'll leave them to dig in for a four-year stay and turn to a more essential area.

 
The Crisis - Center (20-24 AUG)

The Sources: I want to specify that the vast bulk of this section is drawn from three sources:
   Steg, J-M. (2022) Death in the Ardennes: 22nd August 1914: France's Deadliest Day, University of Buckingham Press, 256 pp.

   Zuber, T. (2007) The Battle of the Frontiers Ardennes 1914, The History Press, 313 pp.

and the Bowen (2017) work on German aviation cited earlier.

Movement to Contact (20-21 AUG)
Zuber (2007) describes the region as follows:

"The triangle of the Ardennes forest extends like an arrowhead with its base in Germany into southern Belgium and France. The Ardennes is thinly populated...does not favor operational maneuver...(t)he road net is not well developed and the forests and underbrush are thick...

The nature of the terrain made the operational problem for both armies extremely complex. The terrain...rewarded good reconnaissance, march discipline, effective staff work, and initiative. The terrain mercilessly punished deficiencies in all of these areas."

As we noted in Part 5b, the French strategic reconnaissance work in August, including the anabasis of Sordet's cavalry corps, was misleading to GQG not just because of the difficult terrain but because the main body of the German feldarmee in the Ardennes hadn't yet advanced into the southwestern Belgian forests. The French fliers and horsemen didn't find anyone there because they just weren't there yet.

But when the French horsemen and aviators didn't find anyone in the woods it led GQG to the assumption that there wasn't anyone there at all.

Which was dead wrong.

 
Here's Zuber (2007):

"Joffre believed that the German army was divided into two masses, one in Lorraine, the second...on both sides of the Meuse...(and) the Germans had left few forces in the Ardennes."

The plan was for the 3eme and 4eme Armee to strike north:

"...towards Arlon-Neufchateau...to push the opposing German forces into the angle formed by the Meuse...and the Ourthe. The attack...would catch the left flank of the German main attack (that is, 1. and 2.Feldarmee making the big Schlieffen sweep)...and roll it up...".

The French movement orders went out 20 and 21 AUG; 4eme Armee led off on the left towards Neufchateau, with 3eme Armee refused in echelon on the right towards Arlon, with each army's corps echeloned similarly, refused to the right. 

First contact came on 20 AUG, when the two 4eme Armee cavalry divisions ran into German infantry divisions near Neufchateau and, as Zuber (2007) sums up concisely, "...were thrown back 15km, without being able to advance..."

This was the beginning of a theme. Zuber (2007) is full of comments about the problems of the French cavalry such as:

"On the left (of 4eme Army) the two cavalry divisions were unable to cross the Our (river) due to enemy security detachments..."

"7 DC (division d'cavalrie) was on the far right flank (of 3eme Armee) where it could contribute nothing to the 3rd Army reconnaissance effort."

And his damning conclusion of the overall cavalry battle was:

"The anonymous author of the FAR (German field artillery regiment) 25 regimental history said that the French cavalry simply would not fight. From the smallest patrol up to the level of cavalry corps, the French cavalry avoided combat and when it unexpectedly did meet German forces...the French cavalry withdrew. The German cavalry was able to screen the movement of its own forces, while on 21 and 22 August provided accurate information concerning the French advance."

Okay, now. Keep in mind, Terence Zuber has a very one-sided opinion of the tactical competence of the opposing armies. Germans good, French bad. He needs to be seen as a partisan of the Imperial forces, horse, foot, and artillery.

That said...the records do show that the German troops' operational art was better than their French counterparts, and that presumably included their divisional cavalry and the HKK/Feldarmee-level horse soldiers.

 
Meeting Engagements (22 AUG)
Even had the forested hills of the Ardennes been transparent from the sky in the air both sides were struggling with the late August weather over Belgium and Luxembourg. 

Fog and heat haze when the skies were relatively clear, thunderstorms when it wasn't. Steg (2022) says that "...heavy rains had blanketed the entire region the previous day (21 AUG)...and the thick fog on the morning of 22 August would only clear by around noon..." 

On the ground, however, the German commanders had a much better picture than the French commanders, and were using that, as well as their more flexible command and control ("Aufstragstaktik") setup, to gain the advantage.

As we noted, we've been repeatedly told that the French cavalry were unable, or unwilling, to fight for intelligence, while the German horsemen somehow - better training, better leadership, better something - seem to have been sending intelligence up the channels. 

Worse, the French staff work was slow - many times the day's orders were not issued until well after midnight - and sloppy. Units were misinformed, or marched and countermarched pointlessly. Intelligence was not collected, or if collected, neither analyzed nor disseminated.

Steg (2022) tells the story of one such cavalry unit attached to the French "Colonial Corps" on 22 AUG, quoting the Corps chief of staff as observing that:

"The three squadrons of the Sixth Dragoons marched a few hundred meters ahead of us. These poor dragoons, who had been assigned to us only the previous night, had arrived dog-tired and without maps. We were...surprised at seeing them take the wrong turn at every intersection."

With this sort of clusterfuck in progress it's hardly surprising that the French went into the meeting engagements in the Ardennes already behind the power curve.

Once the maneuver units actually got within rifle range things only got worse.

All the accounts emphasize that their training and doctrine made the German infantry and artillery quicker to react, and more flexible in their tactical employment. German infantry units used the terrain better - French infantry tended to rush forward, German used the ground to place fire on target and maneuver effectively - and the German artillery was better at coordinating fire with their infantry as well as getting trails down, more quickly, and in better overwatching positions.

 
The French commanders from companies up to corps tended to flail tactically under fire. While individually courageous, the French officers seemed to have a difficult time adjusting to unforeseen tactical problems. 

Steg (2022) describes one of these, when the Colonial Corps infantry first encountered dug-in German infantry in hasty defense:

"It is this defensive line...that the soldiers of the 1st Colonial Infantry Regiment's second battalion, commanded by Lieutenant Colonel Vitard, will be the first to encounter."

The battalion goes forward and is shot flat by German rifle and machine gun fire. The first runners return to inform their battalion commander of this, whereupon...

"...the French commander's reaction is identical to the one that will be seen at the various Ardennes battle sites whenever enemy opposition makes its presence known; he calls for an immediate reinforced attack."

The typical explanation for this is supposed to be the pre-war adherence to a sort of all-in manic bayonet charge, the "Attaque à outrance", and the explanation has been fossilized as conventional wisdom about the French infantry of 1914.

 
While there does seem to have been something of this sort spread throughout the European armies of 1914, it seems to me that as much as a reflexive lunge towards the enemy the problem with the French commanders seems to have been a combination of a failure (or absence) of doctrine, and an unwillingness to try and take time to think. 

LTC Vitard and his peers seem to have had little or no experience at solving tactical problems using their heads as opposed to hands and feet. They had no doctrine, and little training, to guide them to alternatives, and no inclination to try and figure one out.

That might well be where the advantage of Aufstragstaktik came in; German subordinate commanders had to figure out the how, where, and when for themselves. They'd been given only the what and why. The rest was up to them to figure out. 

Their French counterparts were handed explicit orders, and when their German enemy didn't oblige them? They seem to have had trouble coming up with non-suicidal alternatives.

The same problems hammered the 3eme and 4eme Armee troops throughout the Ardennes. Poor or absent reconnaissance left the French leadership ignorant of their enemies until the German 4. and 5.Feldarmee tore into them; many French units were so clueless that the German attacks caught them in march order.

Once under fire French tactical doctrine proved flawed, and French command and control inadequate, compared to their German opponents.

The result was a bloody nightmare; 27,000 French soldiers were killed in a single day, 22 AUG, the highest death toll of the entire war. 

 
The Great Retreat Begins (23-24AUG)
By the end of 23 AUG both French armies had been forced back to their start lines, the opportunity to unhinge the big German right wing sweep lost. 

We've talked about the stand of 2eme Armee at Grand Couronné. There was no such doorstop in the Ardennes. What prevented the defeat in the Ardennes from becoming a strategic disaster was not so much French resolution as the pace of 20th Century operations overwhelming the German General Staff.

Zuber (2007) presents a little vignette of what that meant:

"...on the morning of 23 August IR (German infantry regiment) 155 began to dig in...No one knew anything concerning the situation...At 0900 an officer arrived from division HQ saying that the French were not going to attack and work on the trenches stopped.

The troops warmed themselves in the sun, and then moved to a bivouac at 1130 and the field kitchens arrives...bringing hot coffee. The troops cleaned their weapons and equipment and wrote letters home while patrols were sent to find the wounded and dead."

Obviously though the German attacks had succeeded in driving back or shattering the French offensive the campaign was far from over, and the also-obvious inference from that was that vigorous pursuit of the defeated French units was the next step in turning tactical into strategic and political victory. But the German higher seems to have struggled to figure that out.

Zuber (2007) again:

"French casualties had been three of four times higher than...the Germans. Nevertheless, German losses had been significant and these, as well as the exertions of hard marching, combat, and a night spent digging defensive positions, had worn down the German soldiers, who on 23 August were physically and mentally exhausted."

The casualties were a problem, yes. Neither side had been prepared for the scale, or the appalling lethality, of 20th Century industrial war.

 
But a cardinal principle of military planning is preparing for unforeseen problems, such as husbanding reserve units and adapting to combat results.

Both 4. and 5.Feldarmee had units that had seen little or no combat on 22 AUG, and the Army staff, or if not at feldarmee level then at the overall Army ("Oberste Heeresleitung" or OHL) level, should have been pushing the armeekorps commanders to pursue the French armies to destruction.

Instead:

"The corps and army HQ on both sides lost control of their units. Many of the German units could have pursued on 22 August but never received orders to do so. The situation was unclear to German leaders at division level and above, and they preferred "safety first'. When the extent of the French defeat became evident in late morning on 23 August the French were out of ranges and recovering from their defeat." (Zuber, 2007)

I think that's a bit harsh. The meeting engagements of 22 AUG were, literally, the opening shots of World War 1. Neither side knew what to expect, and both were more than a bit shocked at how sudden, violent, and lethal those engagements were.

Remember, too, that the aerial recon assets of both sides had been largely sidelined by weather, so the German armeekorps and feldarmee commanders had a lot of blank space behind the forward enemy units. For all they knew a whole 'nother French armee might be backing up the retreating units smashed on 22 AUG, and a disorganized pursuit through the Ardennes might in turn be smashed as the Bavarians' had been a Grand Couronne'.

The German commanders could certainly have done better.

But the French commanders show how much worse they could have done.

 
Conclusions, Lorraine and The Ardennes
I think we're seeing - for the first time - some answers to our questions about reconnaissance and the outcomes of the Frontiers.

I also think that the answers might not be as generally definitive as we'd like, and vary quite a bit over the geographical areas we've covered.

In Lorraine the German aerial reconnaissance picked out a critical French tactical error - the separation between 1ere and 2eme Armee - that was exploited by German counterattack at Morhange.

However this appears to be not a general technical or tactical issue - that is, it doesn't seem to have been something applicable to the conditions or doctrines of 1914 air recon - but a local success on the part of the Bavarian feldfligerabteilungen; the French Armee d' L'Air didn't match it by detecting the counterattack building up in the 6.Feldarmee assembly areas.

In the Ardennes the same sort of pattern seems to have reoccurred but on the ground.

The German divisional and HKK cavalry units seem to have both screened and collected intelligence fairly effectively, while the French cavalry at all levels appears to have performed both tasks very poorly.

This difference doesn't seem to be related to any sort of general or overarching conditions or planning, but (based on the accounts we have) on national differences in training, doctrine, and leadership.

So, remember, our thesis was that, if the issues affecting the success of the various war plans were related to reconnaissance and intelligence derived from reconnaissance, we would see some sort of generalized problem(s) resulting from a misfit between what the planners thought their recon elements could and would do and what they actually could and did.

But in both these geographical areas the problems seem to be related more to those national differences. The German fliers and cavalry just seem to have been better at flying, scouting, and screening, just as the German infantry and artillery seem to have been better at moving, shooting, and communicating, than their French counterparts.

But we still have one more geographical area to examine, and that one perhaps the biggest and best known of all the engagements that make up the Battle of the Frontiers, so...

Next: The Crisis Two, Electric Boogaloo - The Strong Right Wing

Saturday, July 05, 2025

Independence

This year's national birthday celebration seemed very...troubling.

It was hard to wave a flag and celebrate the nation's government that has spent the past half-year speed-running every fucking thing that provoked the white guys who mattered in the British colonies to piss and moan about their government to the point of rebellion:

"He has refused his Assent to Laws, the most wholesome and necessary for the public good.

He has forbidden his Governors to pass Laws of immediate and pressing importance, unless suspended in their operation till his Assent should be obtained; and when so suspended, he has utterly neglected to attend to them.

He has refused to pass other Laws for the accommodation of large districts of people, unless those people would relinquish the right of Representation in the Legislature, a right inestimable to them and formidable to tyrants only.

He has called together legislative bodies at places unusual, uncomfortable, and distant from the depository of their public Records, for the sole purpose of fatiguing them into compliance with his measures.

He has dissolved Representative Houses repeatedly, for opposing with manly firmness his invasions on the rights of the people.

He has refused for a long time, after such dissolutions, to cause others to be elected; whereby the Legislative powers, incapable of Annihilation, have returned to the People at large for their exercise; the State remaining in the mean time exposed to all the dangers of invasion from without, and convulsions within.

He has endeavoured to prevent the population of these States; for that purpose obstructing the Laws for Naturalization of Foreigners; refusing to pass others to encourage their migrations hither, and raising the conditions of new Appropriations of Lands.

He has obstructed the Administration of Justice, by refusing his Assent to Laws for establishing Judiciary powers.

He has made Judges dependent on his Will alone, for the tenure of their offices, and the amount and payment of their salaries.

He has erected a multitude of New Offices, and sent hither swarms of Officers to harrass our people, and eat out their substance.

He has kept among us, in times of peace, Standing Armies without the Consent of our legislatures.

He has affected to render the Military independent of and superior to the Civil power.

He has combined with others to subject us to a jurisdiction foreign to our constitution, and unacknowledged by our laws; giving his Assent to their Acts of pretended Legislation:

For Quartering large bodies of armed troops among us:

For protecting them, by a mock Trial, from punishment for any Murders which they should commit on the Inhabitants of these States:

For cutting off our Trade with all parts of the world:

For imposing Taxes on us without our Consent:

For depriving us in many cases, of the benefits of Trial by Jury:

For transporting us beyond Seas to be tried for pretended offences:

For taking away our Charters, abolishing our most valuable Laws, and altering fundamentally the Forms of our Governments:

For suspending our own Legislatures, and declaring themselves invested with power to legislate for us in all cases whatsoever.

He has abdicated Government here, by declaring us out of his Protection and waging War against us.

He has plundered our seas, ravaged our Coasts, burnt our towns, and destroyed the lives of our people.

He is at this time transporting large Armies of foreign Mercenaries to compleat the works of death, desolation and tyranny, already begun with circumstances of Cruelty & perfidy scarcely paralleled in the most barbarous ages, and totally unworthy the Head of a civilized nation."

What the actual fuck has Donnie Dollhands done that his counterpart George of Hanover didn't? Substituted his immigration Gestapo for "foreign Mercenaries"? Yeah, right.

Is there any particular reason that anyone not completely in the basket of deplorables would WANT to be part of that shit? The 1776 crowd would have rebel against his ochre-colored ass as they did against the king of their day, and we owe it to them to rebel against the modern version of German George.

Fuck that 1776 noise; there's an old school 1789 solution to King Trump, and rather than bands and fireworks, using it on him and a whole bunch of the crowd of MAGAts clustered around his golden throne seems like a much more joyous use of the day we mark the founding of this nation.

Because the country I served, the country I believe in, is the mirror image of the white man's neighborhood Trump and his the Trumpers believe in.

It's the one where anyone can be "American". No matter who they are, no matter where they were born, no matter what language they speak. All that's required is a fervent, passionate belief in the ideals of this country; equal justice under law, the republic that the foundational documents - ALL the documents, including the important changes wrought by the Civil War amendments that define the Second Republic from the slave-holding First - promises.

Ken ("Popehat") White has a moving story about what that means - or meant - in practice:  

"The people I despise, and who despise me, believe America’s values and goals are blood, soil, swagger, and an insipid and arrogant conformity. They are the values of bullies and their sycophants. They may prevail. There’s no promise they will not...I am just more acutely aware that doing better will not be easy and may not be peaceful, and that doing it will require fighting people just as dedicated to low and ugly values, and that we may lose.

America’s history is the story of people — like those Filipino-Americans — who had much less and faced far more daunting circumstances and kept fighting. It would be shameful to give up that fight. The bullies may win, but they will not win by default, and they will not win without a bloody battle."

The thing is...I'm old. Dying slowly of a neurological disease. Tired of "fighting", fighting what is now the weight of my own government. Tired of re-fighting battles I thought we'd won and settled long ago.

Last night sort of reminded me how ridiculous this nonsense all is.

Several years ago the City of Portland passed an ordnance prohibiting personal fireworks during the summer. It made total sense; we're highly flammable in July. Turning thousands of knuckleheads loose with pyro? NOT a good idea.

For years the family used to go north to Washington - where "projectile"-type fireworks were legal - and haul back a load of mortars, rockets, and roman candles to fire off in the blacktop playground behind Astor Elementary School. 

It was a critical part of "fun" on the 4th, history and patriotism be damned. It was all about the pyro.


But the City was right; it's a damn dumb idea. So they banned it.

Well, turns out that here, in the neighborhood around my new condo in the Lower Depths of St. Johns, we laugh at your silly fireworks ban, Portland. The firefight was in full swing moments after sundown.

At which point, sitting out on my porch to admire the lawlessness, I discovered two things:

1) Someone in the demo site down at the end of the street had some really BIG explosives. Either a seriously big-ass mortar or just the old "M-80" quarter-stick dynamite-type charges we used to use to blow our fingers off as kids in the Sixties. Big. Loud. I mean seriously loud.

So interspersed with the "regular" fireworks every so often there'd be this ginormous flash and BOOM!! when one of these things would go off, rattling the windows and shaking the tree branches.

And...

2) Someone else had set his car alarm, including the fucking motion detector.

Which went off every time Person #1's bombs would explode.

Which meant that all evening we were serenaded with a fusillade of smaller pyro, a massive blast, and then the whooping of the fucking Car Alarm of Freedom.

"Boom-crackle-boom-pop-pop-crackle-boom-BOOM!!!whoopwhoopwhoop!"

It that doesn't say something about the State of This Goddamn Union right now, I can't think of a better.

 

Damn it. I miss my country.