Will Taylor Swift's Eras Tour film get a Best Picture nomination at the Oscars? Well...

Oscars season has barely begun, and (some) pundits are already going wild with a bonkers theory... are you ready for it?

Yes, there's chatter that the recent, record-shattering box office success of Taylor Swift's Eras Tour concert film could land the project among the Academy's Best Picture nominees in early 2024. Not only would such a nomination shock the industry, but it would — just like the film's opening weekend ticket sales — be an unprecedented move for a non-fiction title.

Not to create any bad blood with Swifties, but, as debated by EW's awards experts in the latest Awardist podcast episode (above), such a feat for the film is likely a far-off fantasy. First, there's a question of eligibility — it remains to be seen if Swift's team will submit the movie for consideration in above-the-line categories, as we approach the Academy's Nov. 15 deadline for submission. So, anything is on the table until the Oscars' body reveals its annual list of (literally hundreds) of titles that are eligible for consideration in its competitive categories, including Best Picture.

Others suspected that a more attainable nomination for the movie — which, like Swift's ongoing tour it chronicles, dominated the pop culture conversation (and cash flow, as it revived a lagging fall box office) across its theatrical debut — could come for Best Documentary Feature. It should be noted that Academy guidelines about concert films might prevent the Eras Tour project from a nomination there, though sources tell EW that the Documentary Branch Executive Committee often reviews special eligibility cases each year, for films acquired out of festivals and dated later than the submissions deadline, or for films that contain scripted reenactments — in essence, things that fall outside the typical category standards. So, it would be up to the branch to determine Eras' trajectory.

There's no doubt that, again, like the tour it documents (which is projected to gross over $2 billion by the time it ends, atop boosting local economies in the cities it has visited so far), the Eras Tour film has a firm hold on Hollywood's interest. Swift's direct distribution agreement with AMC and Cinemark versus a major studio distributor could be seen by some as a radical move that subverts the powers that be, but others — including the newer class of the Academy's rapidly diversifying membership — will see it as a maverick move by a woman taking charge of her trajectory in the industry.

Still, in a hypothetical world where the Eras Tour film is eligible for Best Picture, will members rank it at No. 1 on their preferential ballot, over well-received scripted/fiction titles that represent the best of the creative side of the industry, such as Poor Things, Killers of the Flower Moon, and more? Probably not, even amid Swift's unrelenting position as the most important woman in entertainment. Especially when Swift's "All Too Well" short film, which was aggressively campaigned for a Best Live Action Short Film nomination in 2022, failed to even land a spot on the Academy's shortlist.

So, Swift's status as the pop girlie of the moment will be confined — but no less important to — the music industry, until she makes her directorial debut in the near future.

Elsewhere on EW's latest Awardist podcast episode, we interview Pain Hustlers director David Yates about helming another one of Emily Blunt's standout performances ahead of her likely Oscar nomination for Oppenheimer, and we break down early-year contenders that could hold over, including Ben Affleck's Air, The Super Mario Bros. Movie and Elemental in Animated Feature, and — maybe — M3GAN for Visual Effects.

Listen to The Awardist's latest episode above, and catch up with past episodes on the state of the Oscars race below.

Listen to EW's The Awardist podcast on Amazon Music to get the latest awards season analysis and hear from the actors, creators, and more who are contenders this season.

Related content:

• Oscars heat index: Poor Things, Priscilla eyeing potential Oscar nominations after fall festivals
• How Barbie can turn pink into gold at the 2024 Oscars
• Awards season calendar 2023: See dates for Emmys, Tonys, TIFF, more
• See where 18 Academy Award winners keep their Oscars