Brendan, Colin, Austin — breaking down the Best Actor Oscar category

He emerged as an early favorite — if not a total frontrunner — thanks to the fall festival circuit, getting standing ovations at Venice and Toronto for his transformative work in The Whale. Brendan Fraser quickly became the toast of awards season.

That explosive entry into the race made Elvis star Austin Butler an afterthought of sorts, diminishing any thoughts of gold and glory for the 31-year-old actor at the time of that movie's summer release. But Fraser's time in the spotlight faded once The Banshees of Inisherin's leading man, Colin Farrell, entered the mix.

After countless screenings, Q&As, interviews, cover stories, billboards, and more, Farrell and Butler took early wins at the Golden Globes; Fraser followed with a trophy from the Critics Choice Awards. Neither organization's voting membership matches that of the Academy's, making the road to Oscar one occupied by all three actors, who delivered three very different performances last year.

"I am hearing as recently as last week that Brendan continues to get the standing ovations," EW Sr. Movies Editor Joshua Rothkopf says on the latest episode of The Awardist podcast, sizing up the race between the nominees. "The Whale is very much an audience movie and definitely works for audiences. Whereas Colin Farrell, Banshees of Inisherin, seems to be working a little better with critics and is winning — obviously won at Venice, is winning awards from several critics groups, including New York, Los Angeles, the national group. And then there is a third ball of porridge here, if you're Goldilocks. There is a performance that is both connecting with critics and with audiences, and by that I mean Austin Butler. But it may be that Austin is rising in this."

Each of the men also has their own narrative to their credit: Fraser hasn't been on the scene in a big way in several years is that of a comeback kid; Farrell, many think, is overdue even for a nomination; Butler, a rising star no doubt, played the King of Rock and Roll to the point he can't shake Presley's voice. With the SAG Awards still on the horizon (Feb. 26), the weeks leading up to Oscar voting (March 2-7) will be critical. But minds may already be made up.

"I think especially, too, this year, since they are all first-time nominees, they all can kind of claim that narrative, So it's like, in that way, this year maybe more so than some others, you do really have to work that," EW Sr. Writer Lauren Huff explains. "What Brendan has going for him is... every time you hear Brendan discussed — and whether that's online or in person at these events — the overwhelming narrative is, he's likable, he's such a great guy, everybody loves him, everybody's rooting for him. And of course, he had, you know, some of those bumps early in his career... that sort of give him this comeback kid narrative that is just so, so irresistible. But also what's going for him, I think, is that he has a really, really showy performance — I'd say Austin Butler does as well —he's just hard to root against in so many ways. He checks all the boxes."

Elsewhere in the episode, we dive into the Academy's investigation into campaigning tactics around Andrea Riseborough's nomination — and analyze who benefits from the flap.

Then, EW's Joey Nolfi chats with Brendan Fraser about his challenging role in the polarizing movie, The Whale.

Check out more from EW's The Awardist, featuring exclusive interviews, analysis, and our podcast diving into all the highlights leading up to all the major award shows.

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Related content:

• The Whale's Brendan Fraser, our latest Oscars predictions, and more in EW's The Awardist
• Every 2023 Best Actor contender is a first-time Oscar nominee
• 2023 Oscar nominations announced: See the full list