The Awardist Who will (and should) win at the 2023 Emmys By Kristen Baldwin Kristen Baldwin Kristen Baldwin is the TV critic for EW EW's editorial guidelines Published on January 11, 2024 11:50AM EST A few things to keep in mind before we dive into the dubious act of predicting the whims of Emmy voters: This was not your typical awards season. Two days after the Emmy nominations were announced, the actors' union went on strike — and they didn't go back to work until early November, more than two months after Emmy voting closed. None of the stars got to do the typical For Your Consideration rounds, which should mean that voters made their picks based solely on the work. ("Should." Not "will.") The other key point to remember is that Emmy voting closed about 173 years ago — more specifically, Aug. 28, 2023. Everything that happened at Sunday's Golden Globes? Irrelevant, as far as Emmy predictions go. Of course, even the most insightful predictions often prove to be irrelevant, because in the end, nobody knows what those kooky Emmy voters are thinking except the voters themselves. Nevertheless, we shall persist in making our picks in the nine main categories. (For thoughts on the Supporting races in Comedy, Drama, and Limited Series, check out EW's The Awardist podcast embedded below.) Outstanding Drama Series Kieran Culkin, Alan Ruck, Sarah Snook, Jeremy Strong on 'Succession'. Macall B. Polay/HBO AndorBetter Call SaulThe CrownHouse of the DragonThe Last of UsSuccession (Should/will win)The White LotusYellowjackets Let's ease into these predictions with the biggest forgone conclusion of the night: HBO's ridiculously satisfying family saga, which took home five Golden Globes on Jan. 7, will also win a lot of Emmys, including the top drama prize. Would it be nice to see Better Call Saul finally take home the gold after six unparalleled seasons? Sure — but we're holding out hope that Albuquerque's flashiest lawyer won't go home empty-handed... Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series Kieran Culkin on 'Succession'; Bob Odenkirk on 'Better Call Saul'. Macall B. Polay/HBO; Greg Lewis/AMC/Sony Pictures Television Jeff Bridges, The Old ManBrian Cox, SuccessionKieran Culkin, Succession (Will win)Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul (Should win)Pedro Pascal, The Last of UsJeremy Strong, Succession Call it delusion or magical thinking, but I choose to live in a reality where voters feel that Odenkirk — a man they've nominated every single season — deserves to take home the gold for his consistently stunning performance as Jimmy McGill/Saul Goodman. (Especially this season, which almost killed him, I might add.) It's not entirely impossible, as the Succession men might split the vote — but Culkin's shattering work during Logan's funeral will probably put him over the edge. Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Matthew Macfadyen and Sarah Snook on 'Succession'. Claudette Barius/HBO Sharon Horgan, Bad SistersMelanie Lynskey, YellowjacketsElisabeth Moss, The Handmaid's TaleBella Ramsey, The Last of UsKeri Russell, The DiplomatSarah Snook, Succession (Should/will win) In Succession's final season, Snook earned her promotion to Lead Actress from Supporting as Shiv Roy navigated pregnancy, reeled from her father's sudden death, and pulled the ultimate power move on eldest boy Kendall (Jeremy Strong) in the series finale. To the other contenders, allow me to paraphrase Shiv herself: "I love you. Really, I love you, but I can't f---ing imagine anyone but Snook will win." Outstanding Comedy Series Quinta Brunson on 'Abbott Elementary'; Jeremy Allen White on 'The Bear'. ABC/Gilles Mingasson; Chuck Hodes/FX Abbott Elementary (Should win)BarryThe Bear (Will win)Jury DutyThe Marvelous Mrs. MaiselOnly Murders in the BuildingTed LassoWednesday It's going to be a tight race between Abbott Elementary and The Bear — which dropped its stellar second season just two months before Emmy voting closed — but ongoing love for Quinta Brunson's breakout hit (and the fact that it should have won over Ted Lasso in 2022) could give it a boost. There is a chance, of course, that voters will give Lasso a knee-jerk threepeat despite its not-universally-beloved third season, but I choose to believe they can and will do better. Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series Jeremy Allen White on 'The Bear'. Chuck Hodes/FX Bill Hader, BarryJason Segel, ShrinkingMartin Short, Only Murders in the BuildingJason Sudeikis, Ted LassoJeremy Allen White, The Bear (Should/will win) Carmy's season 2 freezer meltdown was likely fresh in voters' minds as they filled out their ballot, and Jeremy Allen White also received rapturous reviews for season 1. With Lasso's shine fading, The Bear's leading man is the one to beat. Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series Quinta Brunson on 'Abbott Elementary'. ABC/Gilles Mingasson Christina Applegate, Dead to MeRachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. MaiselQuinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary (Should/will win)Natasha Lyonne, Poker FaceJenna Ortega, Wednesday Abbott's season 2 finale aired way back in April of 2023, so it's easy to forget how many memorable Janine moments Brunson delivered last year. The egg drop fiasco! Getting a surprise visit from her difficult mom! And, of course, finally sharing a kiss with Gregory! Voters clearly love this cast (Abbott received five nominations in the acting categories), so Brunson seems set for another win following her Writing victory in 2022. Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series Ali Wong and Steven Yeun in 'Beef'. Andrew Cooper/Netflix Beef (Should/will win)Dahmer — Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer StoryDaisy Jones & the SixFleishman Is in TroubleObi-Wan Kenobi Beef is exactly the type of series this category should be honoring: Thoughtful, completely original, with a point of view that brings something new — and in this case, underrepresented — to the TV landscape. After winning big at the Globes, producers will need to clear more space on their shelves come Jan. 15. Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie Steven Yeun in 'Beef'. Andrew Cooper/Netflix Taron Egerton, BlackbirdKumail Nanjiani, Welcome to ChippendalesEvan Peters, Dahmer — Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer StoryDaniel Radcliffe, Weird: The Al Yankovic StoryMichael Shannon, George & TammySteven Yeun, Beef (Should/will win) This is an interesting category, in that three contenders — Steven Yeun, Evan Peters, and Daniel Radcliffe — have a decent shot at winning. Voters awarded Weird the Emmy for Outstanding Television Movie at the Creative Arts Emmys, and plenty of pundits put Radcliffe in the lead here. But the voting body also liked Netflix's controversial Dahmer enough to give it 13 nominations, and with Beef likely to win in the Limited Series category, they may want to reward Peters here. With all of that said, I think it'll be a cake-and-eat-it-too situation: Yeun gets the gold here, voters get to feel good about honoring Radcliffe with the TV Movie Emmy, and Dahmer supporting actress Niecy Nash-Betts takes home the statuette in her category. Everyone's a winner! Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie Ali Wong and Jessica Chastain. Andrew Cooper/Netflix; Dana Hawley/Courtesy of SHOWTIME Lizzy Caplan, Fleishman Is in TroubleJessica Chastain, George & Tammy (Will win)Dominique Fishback, SwarmRiley Keough, Daisy Jones & the SixKathryn Hahn, Tiny Beautiful ThingsAli Wong, Beef (Should win) Back in August, many quote-unquote experts (myself included) put Chastain at the top of the list in this race, and she's still the only one who could prevent Beef from sweeping the main three categories for Limited Series/Anthology. The Emmys have always loved movie stars (especially movie stars playing real people in prestige dramas), and they probably won't be able to resist inviting an Oscar winner to the stage. The 75th Primetime Emmy Awards air live on Monday, Jan. 15 at 8 p.m. ET/5 p.m. PT on Fox. Check out more from EW's The Awardist, featuring exclusive interviews, analysis, and our podcast diving into all the highlights from the year's best in TV. Related content: 2023 Creative Arts Emmys: See all the winners from nights 1 and 2 Jury Duty star James Marsden panicked that poop-scented spray would give away the show's secret Awards season calendar 2024: See key dates for Oscars, Emmys, and more