The Awardist Dave Karger's 2023 Oscars predictions: Top Gun: Maverick is soaring upward Maverick helmer Joseph Kosinski and Tom Cruise could both squeak into their respective brackets, according to the latest reads by our awards expert. By Dave Karger Dave Karger Senior Writer EW's editorial guidelines Published on January 13, 2023 08:58PM EST After weeks of nominations and awards from critics groups with virtually no overlap with the voting body of the Academy, we finally have several results from the guild awards to analyze. Since many guild-award voters also vote for the Oscars, the overall race is now coming into clearer focus. Here's where things stand now, with just days to go before the Oscar nominations. Best Picture My top six ranked films remain the same, but the second half of this year's mandated 10 nominees in the category are a bit murkier. Any of the films ranked seven through 12 (including the troubled Babylon, which did score a SAG ensemble nomination) could make it into the race. The FabelmansTop Gun: MaverickEverything Everywhere All at OnceThe Banshees of InisherinAvatar: The Way of WaterTÁRElvisWomen TalkingAll Quiet on the Western FrontGlass Onion: A Knives Out MysteryTriangle of SadnessBabylon Tom Cruise in 'Top Gun: Maverick'. Paramount Pictures Best Director The Directors Guild threw a wrench into this year's derby by including Top Gun: Maverick's Joseph Kosinski over Avatar: The Way of Water's James Cameron. If there's to be a surprise international filmmaker included, look for that slot to be filled either by Edward Berger or Ruben Östlund. Steven Spielberg, The FabelmansDaniel Scheinert & Dan Kwan, Everything Everywhere All at OnceMartin McDonagh, The Banshees of InisherinTodd Field, TÁRJoseph Kosinski, Top Gun: MaverickJames Cameron, Avatar: The Way of WaterBaz Luhrmann, ElvisEdward Berger, All Quiet on the Western FrontRuben Ostlund, Triangle of SadnessSarah Polley, Women Talking Austin Butler in 'Elvis'. Courtesy of Warner Bros. Pictures Best Actor It's looking more and more like there are four locks here: Colin Farrell, Brendan Fraser, Austin Butler, and Bill Nighy. The fifth nominee is anyone's guess: Tom Cruise and Paul Mescal scored Critics Choice nods, while the hard-campaigning Adam Sandler made the cut with the SAG Awards. I still think overall affection for Top Gun will lift Cruise into contention. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of InisherinBrendan Fraser, The WhaleAustin Butler, ElvisBill Nighy, LivingTom Cruise, Top Gun: MaverickPaul Mescal, AftersunAdam Sandler, HustleHugh Jackman, The SonJeremy Pope, The InspectionDaniel Craig, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery Andrea Riseborough in 'To Leslie'. Momentum Pictures / Courtesy Everett Collection Best Actress Cate Blanchett and Michelle Yeoh are the only real sure things this year. SAG included Viola Davis and Danielle Deadwyler and added Ana de Armas over Michelle Williams. But don't count out the late-surging Andrea Riseborough, whose brilliant turn in To Leslie has become the toast of A-list Hollywood in the past couple weeks, just in time for the AMPAS ballots. Cate Blanchett, TÁRMichelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at OnceViola Davis, The Woman KingDanielle Deadwyler, TillAndrea Riseborough, To LeslieMichelle Williams, The FabelmansOlivia Colman, Empire of LightAna de Armas, BlondeMargot Robbie, BabylonEmma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande Paul Dano in 'The Fabelmans'. Merie Weismiller Wallace/Universal Pictures and Amblin Entertainment Best Supporting Actor Brendan Gleeson and Ke Huy Quan remain the frontrunners here, while Paul Dano now seems the likeliest male nominee from the Fabelmans cast, although Judd Hirsch still stands a strong chance for his brief but unforgettable performance. The Critics Choice nominations, which usually match up decently with the Oscar nods, included pairs of actors from The Fabelmans and The Banshees of Inisherin. Along with Everything Everywhere comeback phenomenon Quan, they could end up comprising the entire roster. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of InisherinKe Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at OnceBarry Keoghan, The Banshees of InisherinPaul Dano, The FabelmansEddie Redmayne, The Good NurseJudd Hirsch, The FabelmansBrad Pitt, BabylonBen Whishaw, Women TalkingBrian Tyree Henry, CausewayJeremy Strong, Armageddon Time Jamie Lee Curtis in 'Everything Everywhere All at Once'. Allyson Riggs/A24 Best Supporting Actress The SAG Awards nominating committee made this already crowded category even more so by nominating The Whale's Hong Chau over contenders like Janelle Monáe and Jessie Buckley. Meanwhile, Angela Bassett's Golden Globe win (the first for any Marvel movie performance) lifts her closer to the top of the heap. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at OnceKerry Condon, The Banshees of InisherinAngela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda ForeverJanelle Monae, Glass Onion: A Knives Out MysteryStephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at OnceJessie Buckley, Women TalkingHong Chau, The WhaleDolly de Leon, Triangle of SadnessNina Hoss, TÁRClaire Foy, Women Talking Known in the FYC industry for his expert Oscars predictions, Awards correspondent Dave Karger (who spent 17 years on staff at EW, writing over 50 cover stories) has made more than 200 live appearances on NBC's Today to talk movies and awards, and has co-hosted ABC's Live From the Red Carpet on Oscar night. Watch this space for his regularly updated rankings within the major categories. Related content: Val Kilmer celebrates 'perfect' Top Gun: Maverick cast for EW's 2022 Entertainers of the Year The Menu star Hong Chau was so convincing as a restaurant manager, she got offered a job Why Top Gun: Maverick starts exactly the same way as the original film