Movies

2024 SAG Awards predictions: Who will win top acting awards this year?

Emma Stone vs. Lily Gladstone, Cillian Murphy vs. Paul Giamatti, and more are set to duke it out at the SAG Awards. See EW's predictions for who will win.

By

Joey Nolfi

Published on February 22, 2024 05:20PM EST

The 2024 SAG Awards are set to lift the awards prospects of key contenders in the Oscars race — but who will win the top acting categories at this weekend's ceremony? The latest episode of EW's Awardist podcast (below, also featuring an interview with Past Lives writer-director Celine Song) attempts to answer that question with our expert SAG Awards predictions, all before Netflix debuts its first-ever streaming broadcast of the ceremony on its primary platform.

The tide of awards season swelled in favor of three nominees likely to continue their respective winning streaks at Saturday's SAG Awards: Emma Stone for Female Actor in a Leading Role (Poor Things), Robert Downey Jr. for Male Actor in a Supporting Role (Oppenheimer), and Da'Vine Joy Randolph for Female Actor in a Supporting Role (The Holdovers). At this point, given the trio's collective sweep on the trail so far, there's nothing standing between them and the SAG podium this weekend.

That leaves only two categories that pose a significant predicament for awards prognosticators: Motion Picture Cast and Male Actor in a Leading Role.

On the men's side, statistics aren't much help, here, as both front-running contenders — Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer) and Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers) — have stacked an equal amount of hardware where it matters most. In the days before Oscars voting opened, Murphy won at BAFTA, which shares significant crossover membership with the Academy and generated significant news on the radar of industry voters gearing up to cast Oscar ballots. It's likely that Murphy has home field advantage (Murphy is from the nearby Ireland) over Giamatti, as Giamatti's work clearly speaks to a more generalized crowd, with his being a performance that audiences can feel as much as they can see, whereas Murphy's work lives on a much more spectacular scale.

Still, the tide is shifting in Murphy's favor. He overtook Giamatti in their most recent high-profile matchup at BAFTA, weeks after they both won at the Golden Globes — despite not competing against each other directly in the same category.

Emma Stone in Poor Things, SAG Awards statuette, and Cillian Murphy in Oppenheimer — Emma Stone in 'Poor Things' ; SAG Awards statuette; Cillian Murphy in 'Oppenheimer'.
Universal Pictures; Searchlight; Getty Images

As an ensemble, Oppenheimer also feels likeliest to go along for the ride, as the film's overwhelming dominance of awards season at large continued at last weekend's BAFTA Awards. Keep an eye on the star-studded cast of Barbie as a potential spoiler, though. If there's one awards body that's likeliest to offer the film a compensatory surge in support after its perceived Oscars snubs for Robbie and director Greta Gerwig, it's the SAG voting body, which comprises thousands of actors across the country whose tastes often align more with the general public than the Hollywood elite.

The 2024 SAG Awards stream Saturday at 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT on Netflix. Read on for EW's full list of SAG Awards predictions for the film categories, below.

L to R: Emily Blunt (as Kitty Oppenheimer) with writer, director, and producer Christopher Nolan and Cillian Murphy (as J. Robert Oppenheimer) on the set of OPPENHEIMER. — Emily Blunt, Christopher Nolan, Cillian Murphy on the set of 'Oppenheimer'. Melinda Sue Gordon/Universal Pictures

Motion Picture Cast

American Fiction
Barbie
The Color Purple
Killers of the Flower Moon
PREDICTED WINNER: Oppenheimer

Male Actor in a Leading Role — Motion Picture

Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Colman Domingo, Rustin
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
PREDICTED WINNER: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction

Female Actor in a Leading Role — Motion Picture

Annette Bening, Nyad
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Margot Robbie, Barbie
PREDICTED WINNER: Emma Stone, Poor Things

Male Actor in a Supporting Role — Motion Picture

Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction
Willem Dafoe, Poor Things
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
PREDICTED WINNER: Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling, Barbie

Female Actor in a Supporting Role — Motion Picture

Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
Penélope Cruz, Ferrari
Jodie Foster, Nyad
PREDICTED WINNER: Da'Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Check out more from EW's The Awardist, featuring exclusive interviews, analysis, and our podcast diving into all the highlights from the year's best in TV.

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