Evaluación de Métodos para el pronóstico de Ventas de la empresa

Periodo Mes Ventas (miles)

1 Mayo 12,376.00
2 Junio 10,378.00
3 Julio 9,538.00
4 Agosto 9,515.00
5 Septiembre 9,785.00
6 Octubre 18,269.00
7 Noviembre 7,987.00
8 Diciembre 8,726.00
9 Enero 12,031.00
10 Febrero 7,494.00
11 Marzo 11,524.00
12 Abril 11,361.00
13 Mayo 21,524.00
14 Junio 14,589.00
15 Julio 15,261.00
16 Agosto 10,799.50
17 Septiembre 10,753.50
18 Octubre 14,928.00
19 Noviembre 9,330.00
20 Diciembre 9,981.00
21 Enero 9,016.50
22 Febrero 13,263.00
23 Marzo 14,704.00
24 Abril 17,840.00
25 Mayo 13,001.50
26 Junio 18,104.00
27 Julio 14,105.00
28 Agosto 11,474.00
29 Septiembre 15,649.00
30 Octubre 10,764.00
31 Noviembre
 PROMEDIO MEDIA GEOMÉTRICA

PERIODO MES Ventas (miles) DIF. RECAUDO PERIODO MES

1 Mayo $ 12,376,000.00 1 Mayo
2 Junio $ 10,378,000.00 - 1,998,000.00 2 Junio
3 Julio $ 9,538,000.00 - 840,000.00 3 Julio
4 Agosto $ 9,515,000.00 - 23,000.00 4 Agosto
5 Septiembre $ 9,785,000.00 270,000.00 5 Septiembre
6 Octubre $ 18,269,000.00 8,484,000.00 6 Octubre
7 Noviembre $ 7,987,000.00 - 10,282,000.00 7 Noviembre
8 Diciembre $ 8,726,000.00 739,000.00 8 Diciembre
9 Enero $ 12,031,000.00 3,305,000.00 9 Enero
10 Febrero $ 7,494,000.00 - 4,537,000.00 10 Febrero
11 Marzo $ 11,524,000.00 4,030,000.00 11 Marzo
12 Abril $ 11,361,000.00 - 163,000.00 12 Abril
13 Mayo $ 21,524,000.00 10,163,000.00 13 Mayo
14 Junio $ 14,589,000.00 - 6,935,000.00 14 Junio
15 Julio $ 1,526,100.00 - 13,062,900.00 15 Julio
16 Agosto $ 1,079,900.00 - 446,200.00 16 Agosto
17 Septiembre $ 10,753,000.00 9,673,100.00 17 Septiembre
18 Octubre $ 14,928,000.00 4,175,000.00 18 Octubre
19 Noviembre $ 9,330,000.00 - 5,598,000.00 19 Noviembre
20 Diciembre $ 9,981,000.00 651,000.00 20 Diciembre
21 Enero $ 9,016,000.00 - 965,000.00 21 Enero
22 Febrero $ 13,263,000.00 4,247,000.00 22 Febrero
23 Marzo $ 14,704,000.00 1,441,000.00 23 Marzo
24 Abril $ 1,784,000.00 - 12,920,000.00 24 Abril
25 Mayo $ 13,001,000.00 11,217,000.00 25 Mayo
26 Junio $ 18,104,000.00 5,103,000.00 26 Junio
27 Julio $ 14,105,000.00 - 3,999,000.00 27 Julio
28 Agosto $ 11,474,000.00 - 2,631,000.00 28 Agosto
29 Septiembre $ 15,649,000.00 4,175,000.00 29 Septiembre
30 Octubre $ 10,764,000.00 - 4,885,000.00 30 Octubre
31 Noviembre $ 10,710,266.67 - 1,612,000.00 31 Noviembre

PROMEDIO - 53,733.33 MG

MG
$25,000,000.00 MG

$20,000,000.00
$25,000.00
$15,000,000.00
$20,000.00
$10,000,000.00

$15,000.00
$5,000,000.00
Title

$10,000.00
$20,000,000.00
$25,000.00
$15,000,000.00
$20,000.00
$10,000,000.00

$15,000.00
$5,000,000.00

Axis Title
$10,000.00
$-
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
$5,000.00

$-
o o e o o o e o o o
ay st br er ay st br er ay st
M Ago iem ebr M Ago iem ebr M Ago
v F v F
No No
 MEDIA GEOMÉTRICA TASA MEDIA DE VARIACION

Ventas (miles) TASA DE VARIACION PERIODO MES Ventas (miles)

$ 12,376.00 1 Mayo $ 12,376.00
$ 10,378.00 -$ 1,998.00 -16% 2 Junio $ 10,378.00
$ 9,538.00 -$ 840.00 -8% 3 Julio $ 9,538.00
$ 9,515.00 -$ 23.00 0% 4 Agosto $ 9,515.00
$ 9,785.00 $ 270.00 3% 5 Septiembre $ 9,785.00
$ 18,269.00 $ 8,484.00 87% 6 Octubre $ 18,269.00
$ 7,987.00 -$10,282.00 -56% 7 Noviembre $ 7,987.00
$ 8,726.00 $ 739.00 9% 8 Diciembre $ 8,726.00
$ 12,031.00 $ 3,305.00 38% 9 Enero $ 12,031.00
$ 7,494.00 -$ 4,537.00 -38% 10 Febrero $ 7,494.00
$ 11,524.00 $ 4,030.00 54% 11 Marzo $ 11,524.00
$ 11,361.00 -$ 163.00 -1% 12 Abril $ 11,361.00
$ 21,524.00 $10,163.00 89% 13 Mayo $ 21,524.00
$ 14,589.00 -$ 6,935.00 -32% 14 Junio $ 14,589.00
$ 15,261.00 $ 672.00 5% 15 Julio $ 15,261.00
$ 10,799.50 -$ 4,461.50 -29% 16 Agosto $ 10,799.50
$ 10,753.50 -$ 46.00 0% 17 Septiembre $ 10,753.50
$ 14,928.00 $ 4,174.50 39% 18 Octubre $ 14,928.00
$ 9,330.00 -$ 5,598.00 -38% 19 Noviembre $ 9,330.00
$ 9,981.00 $ 651.00 7% 20 Diciembre $ 9,981.00
$ 9,016.50 -$ 964.50 -10% 21 Enero $ 9,016.50
$ 13,263.00 $ 4,246.50 47% 22 Febrero $ 13,263.00
$ 14,704.00 $ 1,441.00 11% 23 Marzo $ 14,704.00
$ 17,840.00 $ 3,136.00 21% 24 Abril $ 17,840.00
$ 13,001.50 -$ 4,838.50 -27% 25 Mayo $ 13,001.50
$ 18,104.00 $ 5,102.50 39% 26 Junio $ 18,104.00
$ 14,105.00 -$ 3,999.00 -22% 27 Julio $ 14,105.00
$ 11,474.00 -$ 2,631.00 -19% 28 Agosto $ 11,474.00
$ 15,649.00 $ 4,175.00 36% 29 Septiembre $ 15,649.00
$ 10,764.00 -$ 4,885.00 -31% 30 Octubre $ 10,764.00
$ 9,086.55 -$ 1,612.00 31 Noviembre $ 10,712.33
0%

-0.1558390493 √(𝑛&𝑃𝑛/𝑃𝑜) - 1
-$ 1,677.45 r $ 0.87
$ 9,086.55 r -$ 0.00
r -$ 51.67
r $ 10,712.33
$25,000.00
$25,000.00
$20,000.00

$20,000.00
$15,000.00

$10,000.00 Column H
$15,000.00
$25,000.00
$25,000.00
$20,000.00

$20,000.00
$15,000.00

$10,000.00 Column H
$15,000.00
Linear (Column H)

$5,000.00
$10,000.00

$-
o o e o o o e o o o
ay st br er ay st br er ay st
M Ago iem ebr M Ago iem ebr M Ago $5,000.00
v F v F
No No

$-
0 5 10 15 20
0 15 20 25 30 35
 EMPRESA INTERO

N=4 3

AÑOS Dt Ft Et IEtI MAPE

1 12,376,000.0
2 10,378,000.0
3 9,538,000.0
4 9,515,000.0
5 9,785,000.0 10,451,750.0 - 666,750.00 666,750.0 6.81
6 18,269,000.0 9,804,000.0 8,465,000.00 8,465,000.0 46.34
7 7,987,000.0 11,776,750.0 - 3,789,750.00 3,789,750.0 47.45
8 8,726,000.0 11,389,000.0 - 2,663,000.00 2,663,000.0 30.52
9 12,031,000.0 11,191,750.0 839,250.00 839,250.0 6.98
10 7,494,000.0 11,753,250.0 - 4,259,250.00 4,259,250.0 56.84
11 11,524,000.0 9,059,500.0 2,464,500.00 2,464,500.0 21.39
12 11,361,000.0 9,943,750.0 1,417,250.00 1,417,250.0 12.47
13 21,524,000.0 10,602,500.0 10,921,500.00 10,921,500.0 50.74
14 14,589,000.0 12,975,750.0 1,613,250.00 1,613,250.0 11.06
15 1,526,100.0 14,749,500.0 - 13,223,400.00 13,223,400.0 866.48
16 1,079,900.0 12,250,025.0 - 11,170,125.00 11,170,125.0 1,034.37
17 10,753,000.0 9,679,750.0 1,073,250.00 1,073,250.0 9.98
18 14,928,000.0 6,987,000.0 7,941,000.00 7,941,000.0 53.20
19 9,330,000.0 7,071,750.0 2,258,250.00 2,258,250.0 24.20
20 9,981,000.0 9,022,725.0 958,275.00 958,275.0 9.60
21 9,016,000.0 11,248,000.0 - 2,232,000.00 2,232,000.0 24.76
22 13,263,000.0 10,813,750.0 2,449,250.00 2,449,250.0 18.47
23 14,704,000.0 10,397,500.0 4,306,500.00 4,306,500.0 29.29
24 1,784,000.0 11,741,000.0 - 9,957,000.00 9,957,000.0 558.13
25 13,001,000.0 9,691,750.0 3,309,250.00 3,309,250.0 25.45
26 18,104,000.0 10,688,000.0 7,416,000.00 7,416,000.0 40.96
27 14,105,000.0 11,898,250.0 2,206,750.00 2,206,750.0 15.65
28 11,474,000.0 11,748,500.0 - 274,500.00 274,500.0 2.39
29 15,649,000.0 14,171,000.0 1,478,000.00 1,478,000.0 9.44
30 10,764,000.0 14,833,000.0 - 4,069,000.00 4,069,000.0 37.80
31 12,998,000.0

Suma de errores 6,812,500.0 111,422,050.0 3,050.8

CFE 6,812,500.0
E 262,019.2
MAD 4,285,463.5
MAPE 3,050.8
 Dt Demanda
Ft Ponóstico
Et Error de pronóstico del periodo t
IEtI Error de pronostico absoluto del periodo t
CFE Suma acumulada de los errores de pronóstico
E Error promedio del pronóstico
MAD Desviación media absoluta
 RELACIÓN DEMANDA- PRONÓSTICO
25000000

20000000

AÑOS
15000000
Dt
Axis Title

Ft
10000000

5000000

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
AÑOS
Dt
Ft
Para el método de promedio movil ponderado utilizaremos las ponderaciones de
50%, 30% y 20%.
4 0.4
3 0.3
2 0.2
1 0.1

N=4
AÑOS Dt Ft Et IEtI MAPE
1 12,376,000.0
2 10,378,000.0
3 9,538,000.0
4 9,515,000.0
5 9,785,000.0 9,980,600.00 - 195,600.0 195,600.0 2.00
6 18,269,000.0 9,713,900.00 8,555,100.0 8,555,100.0 46.83
7 7,987,000.0 13,099,900.00 - 5,112,900.0 5,112,900.0 64.02
8 8,726,000.0 11,584,000.00 - 2,858,000.0 2,858,000.0 32.75
9 12,031,000.0 10,518,800.00 1,512,200.0 1,512,200.0 12.57
10 7,494,000.0 10,854,500.00 - 3,360,500.0 3,360,500.0 44.84
11 11,524,000.0 9,150,800.00 2,373,200.0 2,373,200.0 20.59
12 11,361,000.0 10,136,600.00 1,224,400.0 1,224,400.0 10.78
13 21,524,000.0 10,703,500.00 10,820,500.0 10,820,500.0 50.27
14 14,589,000.0 15,072,100.00 - 483,100.0 483,100.0 3.31
15 1,526,100.0 15,717,400.00 - 14,191,300.0 14,191,300.0 929.91
16 1,079,900.0 10,428,040.00 - 9,348,140.0 9,348,140.0 865.65
17 10,753,000.0 5,959,990.00 4,793,010.0 4,793,010.0 44.57
18 14,928,000.0 6,389,290.00 8,538,710.0 8,538,710.0 57.20
19 9,330,000.0 9,565,690.00 - 235,690.0 235,690.0 2.53
20 9,981,000.0 10,468,990.00 - 487,990.0 487,990.0 4.89
21 9,016,000.0 10,852,300.00 - 1,836,300.0 1,836,300.0 20.37
22 13,263,000.0 9,959,500.00 3,303,500.0 3,303,500.0 24.91
23 14,704,000.0 10,939,200.00 3,764,800.0 3,764,800.0 25.60
24 1,784,000.0 12,661,800.00 - 10,877,800.0 10,877,800.0 609.74
25 13,001,000.0 8,679,000.00 4,322,000.0 4,322,000.0 33.24
26 18,104,000.0 10,002,700.00 8,101,300.0 8,101,300.0 44.75
27 14,105,000.0 12,969,100.00 1,135,900.0 1,135,900.0 8.05
28 11,474,000.0 13,851,800.00 - 2,377,800.0 2,377,800.0 20.72
29 15,649,000.0 13,742,000.00 1,907,000.0 1,907,000.0 12.19
30 10,764,000.0 14,333,200.00 - 3,569,200.0 3,569,200.0 33.16
31 12,705,600.00

Suma de errores 5,417,300.0 115,285,940.0 3,025.44

CFE 5,417,300.0
E 208,357.69
MAD 4,434,074.62
MAPE 3,025.44
 RELACIÓN DEMANDA-PRONÓSTICO
25000000

20000000

15000000

10000000

5000000

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

AÑOS Dt Ft
8 29 30 31
Periodos Ventas (miles) MT (2/4+1) EMA
1 12,376,000.00 - -
2 10,378,000.00 - -
3 9,538,000.00
4 9,515,000.00
5 9,785,000.00 10,451,750.00 0.40 10,451,750.00
6 18,269,000.00 9,804,000.00 0.40 13,578,650.00
7 7,987,000.00 11,776,750.00 0.40 11,341,990.00
Venta
8 8,726,000.00 11,389,000.00 0.40 10,295,594.00
9 12,031,000.00 11,191,750.00 0.40 10,989,756.40 25,000,000.00
10 7,494,000.00 11,753,250.00 0.40 9,591,453.84
11 11,524,000.00 9,059,500.00 0.40 10,364,472.30 20,000,000.00
12 11,361,000.00 9,943,750.00 0.40 10,763,083.38
13 21,524,000.00 10,602,500.00 0.40 15,067,450.03
14 14,589,000.00 12,975,750.00 0.40 14,876,070.02 15,000,000.00
15 1,526,100.00 14,749,500.00 0.40 9,536,082.01
16 1,079,900.00 12,250,025.00 0.40 6,153,609.21 10,000,000.00
17 10,753,000.00 9,679,750.00 0.40 7,993,365.52
18 14,928,000.00 6,987,000.00 0.40 10,767,219.31
19 9,330,000.00 7,071,750.00 0.40 10,192,331.59 5,000,000.00
20 9,981,000.00 9,022,725.00 0.40 10,107,798.95
21 9,016,000.00 11,248,000.00 0.40 9,671,079.37 -
22 13,263,000.00 10,813,750.00 0.40 11,107,847.62 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
23 14,704,000.00 10,397,500.00 0.40 12,546,308.57
24 1,784,000.00 11,741,000.00 0.40 8,241,385.14
25 13,001,000.00 9,691,750.00 0.40 10,145,231.09
26 18,104,000.00 10,688,000.00 0.40 13,328,738.65
27 14,105,000.00 11,898,250.00 0.40 13,639,243.19
28 11,474,000.00 11,748,500.00 0.40 12,773,145.91
29 15,649,000.00 14,171,000.00 0.40 13,923,487.55
30 10,764,000.00 14,833,000.00 0.40 12,659,692.53
31 - 12,998,000.00
 Ventas SMA EMA
0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

-
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
 Evaluación de Métodos para el pronóstico de Ventas de la empresa

n= 4

Periodos Ventas (miles) Mt SMA doble M´t Valor de la "a" Valor de la "b" Pronostico DMA
1 12,376,000.00 - -
2 10,378,000.00 - -
3 9,538,000.00 -
4 9,515,000.00 -
5 9,785,000.00 10,451,750.00
6 18,269,000.00 9,804,000.00
7 7,987,000.00 11,776,750.00
8 8,726,000.00 11,389,000.00 10,855,375.00 11,922,625.00 355,750.00
9 12,031,000.00 11,191,750.00 11,040,375.00 11,343,125.00 100,916.67 12,278,375.00
10 7,494,000.00 11,753,250.00 11,527,687.50 11,978,812.50 150,375.00 11,444,041.67
11 11,524,000.00 9,059,500.00 10,848,375.00 7,270,625.00 - 1,192,583.33 12,129,187.50
12 11,361,000.00 9,943,750.00 10,487,062.50 9,400,437.50 - 362,208.33 6,078,041.67
13 21,524,000.00 10,602,500.00 10,339,750.00 10,865,250.00 175,166.67 9,038,229.17
14 14,589,000.00 12,975,750.00 10,645,375.00 15,306,125.00 1,553,583.33 11,040,416.67
15 1,526,100.00 14,749,500.00 12,067,875.00 17,431,125.00 1,787,750.00 16,859,708.33
16 1,079,900.00 12,250,025.00 12,644,443.75 11,855,606.25 - 262,945.83 19,218,875.00
17 10,753,000.00 9,679,750.00 12,413,756.25 6,945,743.75 - 1,822,670.83 11,592,660.42
18 14,928,000.00 6,987,000.00 10,916,568.75 3,057,431.25 - 2,619,712.50 5,123,072.92
19 9,330,000.00 7,071,750.00 8,997,131.25 5,146,368.75 - 1,283,587.50 437,718.75
20 9,981,000.00 9,022,725.00 8,190,306.25 9,855,143.75 554,945.83 3,862,781.25
21 9,016,000.00 11,248,000.00 8,582,368.75 13,913,631.25 1,777,087.50 10,410,089.58
22 13,263,000.00 10,813,750.00 9,539,056.25 12,088,443.75 849,795.83 15,690,718.75
23 14,704,000.00 10,397,500.00 10,370,493.75 10,424,506.25 18,004.17 12,938,239.58
24 1,784,000.00 11,741,000.00 11,050,062.50 12,431,937.50 460,625.00 10,442,510.42
25 13,001,000.00 9,691,750.00 10,661,000.00 8,722,500.00 - 646,166.67 12,892,562.50
26 18,104,000.00 10,688,000.00 10,629,562.50 10,746,437.50 38,958.33 8,076,333.33
27 14,105,000.00 11,898,250.00 11,004,750.00 12,791,750.00 595,666.67 10,785,395.83
28 11,474,000.00 11,748,500.00 11,006,625.00 12,490,375.00 494,583.33 13,387,416.67
29 15,649,000.00 14,171,000.00 12,126,437.50 16,215,562.50 1,363,041.67 12,984,958.33
30 10,764,000.00 14,833,000.00 13,162,687.50 16,503,312.50 1,113,541.67 17,578,604.17
31 12,998,000.00 13,437,625.00 12,558,375.00 - 293,083.33 17,616,854.17
 P
1
2
3
4

Et

- 247,375.00 25,000,000.00
- 3,950,041.67
- 605,187.50
5,282,958.33 20,000,000.00
12,485,770.83
3,548,583.33
- 15,333,608.33 15,000,000.00
- 18,138,975.00
- 839,660.42
9,804,927.08 10,000,000.00
8,892,281.25
6,118,218.75
- 1,394,089.58 5,000,000.00
- 2,427,718.75
1,765,760.42
- 8,658,510.42 -
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
108,437.50
10,027,666.67 Ventas MSA DMA
3,319,604.17
- 1,913,416.67
2,664,041.67
- 6,814,604.17
 Evaluación de Métodos para el pronóstico de Ventas de la empresa
Periodo Mes Ventas (miles) Ymedia Xmedia
1 Mayo 12,376,000.00 11,151,966.67 15.5
2 Junio 10,378,000.00
3 Julio 9,538,000.00
4 Agosto 9,515,000.00
5 Septiembre 9,785,000.00
6 Octubre 18,269,000.00
7 Noviembre 7,987,000.00
8 Diciembre 8,726,000.00
9 Enero 12,031,000.00
10 Febrero 7,494,000.00
11 Marzo 11,524,000.00
12 Abril 11,361,000.00
13 Mayo 21,524,000.00
14 Junio 14,589,000.00
15 Julio 1,526,100.00
16 Agosto 1,079,900.00
17 Septiembre 10,753,000.00
18 Octubre 14,928,000.00
19 Noviembre 9,330,000.00
20 Diciembre 9,981,000.00
21 Enero 9,016,000.00
22 Febrero 13,263,000.00
23 Marzo 14,704,000.00
24 Abril 1,784,000.00
25 Mayo 13,001,000.00
26 Junio 18,104,000.00
27 Julio 14,105,000.00
28 Agosto 11,474,000.00
29 Septiembre 15,649,000.00
30 Octubre 10,764,000.00
31 Noviembre 12,076,397.01 TOTALES 11,151,966.67 15.50

b= Media Y - (a* Media X) 10,227,536

a= ∑xy - nȲẊ 134042400 59,641

∑x^2- nẊ^2 2,247.50

Solucion Del Modelo

 Y(x) = 10227536,3218391 + 59640,6674082314 X

Y(31) 12,076,397.01 31
Y() -
ntas de la empresa
xy (X)2 (Xmedia)2
12,376,000.00 1 240.25
20,756,000.00 4
28,614,000.00 9
38,060,000.00 16
48,925,000.00 25
109,614,000.00 36
55,909,000.00 49
69,808,000.00 64
108,279,000.00 81
74,940,000.00 100
126,764,000.00 121
136,332,000.00 144
279,812,000.00 169
204,246,000.00 196
22,891,500.00 225
17,278,400.00 256
182,801,000.00 289
268,704,000.00 324
177,270,000.00 361
199,620,000.00 400
189,336,000.00 441
291,786,000.00 484
338,192,000.00 529
42,816,000.00 576
325,025,000.00 625
470,704,000.00 676
380,835,000.00 729
321,272,000.00 784
453,821,000.00 841
322,920,000.00 900
5,319,706,900.00 9,455.00 240.25

25,000,000.00

20,000,000.00

15,000,000.00
Axis Title

f(x) = 59640.6674082314 x + 10227536.3218391 Co

10,000,000.00 R² = 0.0130395479498944
Lin

5,000,000.00
 15,000,000.00

Axis Title
f(x) = 59640.6674082314 x + 10227536.3218391 Co
10,000,000.00 R² = 0.0130395479498944
Lin

5,000,000.00

-
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Axis Title
Column C
Linear (Column C)
 Column C
Linear (Column C)

0 35
 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.1

PERIODO VENTA ALFA= 0,2 ALFA= 0,5 ALFA= 0,9 Error absoluto

1 12,376,000.00
2 10,378,000.00 12,376,000.00 12,376,000.00 12,376,000.00 1,998,000.00
3 9,538,000.00 11,976,400.00 11,377,000.00 10,577,800.00 2,438,400.00
4 9,515,000.00 11,488,720.00 10,457,500.00 9,641,980.00 1,973,720.00
5 9,785,000.00 11,093,976.00 9,986,250.00 9,527,698.00 1,308,976.00
6 18,269,000.00 10,832,180.80 9,885,625.00 9,759,269.80 7,436,819.20
7 7,987,000.00 12,319,544.64 14,077,312.50 17,418,026.98 4,332,544.64
8 8,726,000.00 11,453,035.71 11,032,156.25 8,930,102.70 2,727,035.71
9 12,031,000.00 10,907,628.57 9,879,078.13 8,746,410.27 1,123,371.43
10 7,494,000.00 11,132,302.86 10,955,039.06 11,702,541.03 3,638,302.86
11 11,524,000.00 10,404,642.28 9,224,519.53 7,914,854.10 1,119,357.72
12 11,361,000.00 10,628,513.83 10,374,259.77 11,163,085.41 732,486.17
13 21,524,000.00 10,775,011.06 10,867,629.88 11,341,208.54 10,748,988.94
14 14,589,000.00 12,924,808.85 16,195,814.94 20,505,720.85 1,664,191.15
15 1,526,100.00 13,257,647.08 15,392,407.47 15,180,672.09 11,731,547.08
16 1,079,900.00 10,911,337.66 8,459,253.74 2,891,557.21 9,831,437.66
17 10,753,000.00 8,945,050.13 4,769,576.87 1,261,065.72 1,807,949.87
18 14,928,000.00 9,306,640.10 7,761,288.43 9,803,806.57 5,621,359.90
19 9,330,000.00 10,430,912.08 11,344,644.22 14,415,580.66 1,100,912.08
20 9,981,000.00 10,210,729.67 10,337,322.11 9,838,558.07 229,729.67
21 9,016,000.00 10,164,783.73 10,159,161.05 9,966,755.81 1,148,783.73
22 13,263,000.00 9,935,026.99 9,587,580.53 9,111,075.58 3,327,973.01
23 14,704,000.00 10,600,621.59 11,425,290.26 12,847,807.56 4,103,378.41
24 1,784,000.00 11,421,297.27 13,064,645.13 14,518,380.76 9,637,297.27
25 13,001,000.00 9,493,837.82 7,424,322.57 3,057,438.08 3,507,162.18
26 18,104,000.00 10,195,270.25 10,212,661.28 12,006,643.81 7,908,729.75
27 14,105,000.00 11,777,016.20 14,158,330.64 17,494,264.38 2,327,983.80
28 11,474,000.00 12,242,612.96 14,131,665.32 14,443,926.44 768,612.96
29 15,649,000.00 12,088,890.37 12,802,832.66 11,770,992.64 3,560,109.63
30 10,764,000.00 12,800,912.30 14,225,916.33 15,261,199.26 2,036,912.30
31 12,393,529.84 12,494,958.17 11,213,719.93

** Alfa 0.1 con un MAD de 2733.47

** Para un pronostico de 13,172 para el periodo 31
 0.1 0.5 0.9

Sumatoria error Sumatoria error

MAD Error absoluto MAD Error absoluto
absoluto absoluto

1,998,000.00 999,000.00 1,998,000.00 1,998,000.00 999,000.00 1,998,000.00

4,436,400.00 1,478,800.00 1,839,000.00 3,837,000.00 1,279,000.00 1,039,800.00
6,410,120.00 1,602,530.00 942,500.00 4,779,500.00 1,194,875.00 126,980.00
7,719,096.00 1,543,819.20 201,250.00 4,980,750.00 996,150.00 257,302.00
15,155,915.20 2,525,985.87 8,383,375.00 13,364,125.00 2,227,354.17 8,509,730.20
19,488,459.84 2,784,065.69 6,090,312.50 19,454,437.50 2,779,205.36 9,431,026.98
22,215,495.55 2,776,936.94 2,306,156.25 21,760,593.75 2,720,074.22 204,102.70
23,338,866.98 2,593,207.44 2,151,921.88 23,912,515.63 2,656,946.18 3,284,589.73
26,977,169.84 2,697,716.98 3,461,039.06 27,373,554.69 2,737,355.47 4,208,541.03
28,096,527.55 2,554,229.78 2,299,480.47 29,673,035.16 2,697,548.65 3,609,145.90
28,829,013.73 2,402,417.81 986,740.23 30,659,775.39 2,554,981.28 197,914.59
39,578,002.66 3,044,461.74 10,656,370.12 41,316,145.51 3,178,165.04 10,182,791.46
41,242,193.81 2,945,870.99 1,606,814.94 42,922,960.45 3,065,925.75 5,916,720.85
52,973,740.89 3,531,582.73 13,866,307.47 56,789,267.92 3,785,951.19 13,654,572.09
62,805,178.56 3,925,323.66 7,379,353.74 64,168,621.66 4,010,538.85 1,811,657.21
64,613,128.43 3,800,772.26 5,983,423.13 70,152,044.79 4,126,590.87 9,491,934.28
70,234,488.32 3,901,916.02 7,166,711.57 77,318,756.35 4,295,486.46 5,124,193.43
71,335,400.41 3,754,494.76 2,014,644.22 79,333,400.57 4,175,442.14 5,085,580.66
71,565,130.07 3,578,256.50 356,322.11 79,689,722.68 3,984,486.13 142,441.93
72,713,913.81 3,462,567.32 1,143,161.05 80,832,883.73 3,849,184.94 950,755.81
76,041,886.82 3,456,449.40 3,675,419.47 84,508,303.21 3,841,286.51 4,151,924.42
80,145,265.23 3,484,576.75 3,278,709.74 87,787,012.94 3,816,826.65 1,856,192.44
89,782,562.50 3,740,940.10 11,280,645.13 99,067,658.07 4,127,819.09 12,734,380.76
93,289,724.68 3,731,588.99 5,576,677.43 104,644,335.51 4,185,773.42 9,943,561.92
101,198,454.43 3,892,248.25 7,891,338.72 112,535,674.23 4,328,295.16 6,097,356.19
103,526,438.23 3,834,312.53 53,330.64 112,589,004.87 4,169,963.14 3,389,264.38
104,295,051.19 3,724,823.26 2,657,665.32 115,246,670.19 4,115,952.51 2,969,926.44
107,855,160.82 3,719,143.48 2,846,167.34 118,092,837.53 4,072,166.81 3,878,007.36
109,892,073.12 3,663,069.10 3,461,916.33 121,554,753.86 4,051,825.13 4,497,199.26

25,000,000.00

20,000,000.00

15,000,000.00

10,000,000.00

5,000,000.00
15,000,000.00

10,000,000.00

5,000,000.00

-
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 2

VENTA Column C ALFA= 0,5 ALFA= 0,9

230,000.00 1%
2,300.00
232,323.23 2,323.23
230,000.00
 0.9

Sumatoria error
MAD
absoluto

1,998,000.00 999,000.00
3,037,800.00 1,012,600.00
3,164,780.00 791,195.00
3,422,082.00 684,416.40
11,931,812.20 1,988,635.37
21,362,839.18 3,051,834.17
21,566,941.88 2,695,867.73
24,851,531.61 2,761,281.29
29,060,072.64 2,906,007.26
32,669,218.53 2,969,928.96
32,867,133.12 2,738,927.76
43,049,924.58 3,311,532.66
48,966,645.44 3,497,617.53
62,621,217.52 4,174,747.83
64,432,874.73 4,027,054.67
73,924,809.01 4,348,518.18
79,049,002.44 4,391,611.25
84,134,583.09 4,428,135.95
84,277,025.03 4,213,851.25
85,227,780.83 4,058,465.75
89,379,705.25 4,062,713.88
91,235,897.70 3,966,778.16
103,970,278.45 4,332,094.94
113,913,840.38 4,556,553.62
120,011,196.57 4,615,815.25
123,400,460.95 4,570,387.44
126,370,387.39 4,513,228.12
130,248,394.74 4,491,323.96
134,745,594.01 4,491,519.80
18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

5 ALFA= 0,9