TRABAJO PRACTICO

VARIABLE MULTIVARIABLE

1. CONSUMO DE CAFE
Y, X,
AÑO TAZAS DIARIAS POR PERSONA $ POR LIBRA
1970 2.57 0.77
1971 2.5 0.74
1972 2.35 0.72
1973 2.3 0.73
1974 2.25 0.76
1975 2.2 0.75
1976 2.11 1.08
1977 1.94 1.81
1978 1.97 1.39
1979 2.06 1.20
1980 2.02 1.17

ANTILOG DE
2.DATOS BASICOS PARA COMPARAR DOS VALORES DE R2
Yt Ýt InYt InYt
AÑO 1 2 3 4
1970 2.57 2.321887 0.843555 2.324616
1971 2.50 2.336272 0.853611 2.348111
1972 2.35 2.345863 0.860544 2.364447
1973 2.30 2.341068 0.857054 2.356209
1974 2.25 2.326682 0.846863 2.332318
1975 2.20 2.331477 0.850214 2.340149
1976 2.11 2.173233 0.757943 2.133882
1977 1.94 1.823176 0.627279 1.872508
1978 1.97 2.024579 0.694089 2.001884
1979 2.06 2.115689 0.731282 2.077742
1980 2.02 2.130075 0.737688 2.091096

TABLA 3
AÑO Yt
1970 2.57
1971 2.5
1972 2.35
1973 2.3
1974 2.25
1975 2.2
1976 2.11
1977 1.94
1978 1.97
1979 2.06
1980 2.02
24.27
InYt In(Yt)
5 6
0.943906 0.84238
0.916291 0.848557
0.854415 0.852653
0.832909 0.850607
0.81093 0.844443
0.788457 0.846502
0.746688 0.776216
0.662688 0.60058
0.678034 0.705362
0.722706 0.749381
0.703098 0.756157

Ytt Ỹtt InYtt In̂Yt Y, gasto de consumo personal, miles de millones de

21.7 283.959 0.89410795 2.17 1 2
21.77 285.6579 0.89699217 2.177 1958 X, tiempo Ý, Y estimado
21.92 289.2984 0.90317264 2.192 281.4 1 (=1956) 261.4208
 21.97 290.5119 0.9052328 2.197 288.1 2 276.6026
22.02 291.7254 0.90729295 2.202 290 3 291.7844
22.07 292.9389 0.90935311 2.207 307.3 4 306.9661
22.16 295.1232 0.91306139 2.216 316.1 5 322.1479
22.33 299.2491 0.92006593 2.233 322.5 6 337.3297
22.3 298.521 0.91882983 2.23 338.4 7 352.5115
22.21 296.3367 0.91512155 2.221 353.3 8 367.6933
22.25 297.3075 0.91676967 2.225 373.7 9 382.8751
242.70 10 24.27 397.7 10 398.0569
418.1 11 413.2386
430.1 12 428.4206
452.7 13 443.6022
469.1 14 458.784
476.9 15 (=1970) 473.9658
rsonal, miles de millones de dolares
3 4 5 6 7
ú, residuos YtÝ (YtÝ)*100% ∑(Ý, y estimado) ´Ln Ý y estimado
19.9791 237.1508 107.6425% 1.1023399457223 4224.11266066361
 11.4973 252.3326 104.16% 1.09618257807354 4324.68677163179
-1.7844 267.5144 99.39% 1.09072408812385 4353.20778817501
0.3338 282.6961 100.11% 1.08585190952404 4612.89914933165
-6.0479 297.8779 98.12% 1.08147633644523 4744.99648911076
-14.8297 313.0597 95.60% 1.0775251493565 4841.06728167738
-14.1115 328.2415 96.00% 1.07393946225569 5079.74315696008
-14.3933 343.4233 96.09% 1.07067080189376 5303.40797090424
-9.1751 358.6051 97.60% 1.06767890361849 5609.63362221034
-0.3569 373.7869 99.91% 1.06493004436485 5969.89909433517
4.8613 388.9686 101.18% 1.06239578207598 6276.12474564128
1.6795 404.1506 100.39% 1.06005187175276 6456.25748170369
9.0977 419.3322 102.05% 1.05787773989214 6795.50746795457
10.3159 434.514 102.25% 1.05585550753255 7041.68887390654
2.9341 449.6958 100.62% 1.05396981692958 7158.7751523471
5,151.3495 1501.1061% 16.1014699375613 82792.0077065532
 5
AÑO C* P W I K-1
1920 39.8 12.7 28.8 2.7 180.1
1921 41.9 12.4 25.5 -0.2 182.8
1922 45 16.9 29.3 1.9 182.6
1923 49.2 18.4 34.1 5.2 184.5
1924 50.6 19.4 33.9 3 189.7
1925 52.6 20.1 35.4 5.1 192.7
1926 55.1 19.6 37.4 5.6 197.8
1927 56.2 19.8 37.9 4.2 203.4
1928 57.3 21.1 39.2 3 207.6
1929 57.8 21.7 41.3 5.1 210.6
1930 55 15.6 37.9 1 215.7
1931 50.9 11.4 34.5 -3.4 216.7
1932 45.6 7 29 -6.2 213.3
1933 46.5 11.2 28.5 -5.1 207.1
1934 48.7 12.3 30.6 -3 202.0
1935 51.3 14 33.2 -1.3 199.0
1936 57.7 17.6 36.8 2.1 197.7
1937 58.7 17.3 41 2 199.8
1938 57.5 15.3 38.2 -1.9 201.8
1939 61.6 19 41.6 1.3 199.9
1940 65 21.1 45 3.3 201.2
1941 69.7 23.5 53.3 4.9 204.5
792.4 4390.5
 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
X W' G T C´=P + I(W) K-1´´ P´ W¨+W'
44.9 2.2 2.4 3.4 90.46 4714.2 4565 423.52
45.6 2.7 3.9 7.7 7.3 160 4562.9 148.33
50.1 2.9 3.2 3.9 72.57 156.2 4566.3 293.05
57.2 2.9 2.8 4.7 195.72 153.3 4567.4 374.69
57.1 3.1 3.5 3.8 121.1 158.9 4573.3 233.54
61.0 3.2 3.3 5.5 200.64 160.5 4574.5 269.77
64.0 3.3 3.3 7.0 229.04 163.7 4578.0 263.08
64.4 3.6 4.0 6.7 178.98 169.1 4583.6 115.24
64.5 3.7 4.2 4.2 138.7 172.1 4590.2 65.52
67.0 4.0 4.1 4.0 232.33 173.3 4593.1 94.14
61.2 4.2 5.2 7.7 53.5 182 4594.3 -170.06
53.4 4.8 5.9 7.5 128.7 187 4594.9 -320.53
44.3 5.3 4.9 8.3 186.8 189.6 4590.2 -99.07
45.1 5.6 3.7 5.4 156.55 184.2 4586.6 185.73
49.7 6.0 4.0 6.8 104.1 177.4 4579.7 168
54.4 6.1 4.4 7.2 57.16 171.9 4576.2 119.32
62.7 7.4 2.9 8.3 94.88 168.3 4572.5 491.39
65.0 6.7 4.3 6.7 99.3 165.5 4576.9 207.96
60.9 7.7 5.3 7.4 87.88 171.3 4577.2 17
69.5 7.8 6.6 8.9 73.08 166.1 4573.7 -202.46
75.7 8.0 7.4 9.6 169.6 164.2 4574.1 -336.48
88.4 8.5 13.8 11.6 284.67 159.7 4574.9 -1576.65
103.1 146.3 2963.06 8268.5 100725.5 765.03
 14 15 16 17
cuadro comparativo cuadro compaB3 polinomialB4 variable regresion clasica
0.0510071431762563 16.7088613 207981.4 -4643.95297
0.00306109177914232 5.94243223 -174759.07 -89.4388403
0.00446014167216842 11.7186628 102604.761 -81.0928806
0.00524187023147068 15.1355925 632676.248 -71.3444444
0.00389613355108687 9.68721448 292691.2 -77.6919346
0.00427170875299701 11.3640133 638783.18 -75.7610275
0.00423706012876581 11.366803 755553.12 -76.5554095
0.0028229197174499 5.11384414 525188.888 -82.1650934
0.0023590848394895 2.96325912 340592.84 -85.48921
0.00265513698120138 4.31644946 759377.223 -84.4904084
0.00011853999235546 -7.98422872 -35376.11 -99.50051
-0.0013256821758145 -15.1165098 345995.97 -112.396031
0.00089877935577386 -4.60364058 654103.5 -123.780075
0.00367265488878189 8.38631732 511176.57 -116.953211
0.00342912172190756 7.41009236 249135.68 -105.028218
0.0028912241686564 5.18873301 12630.312 -94.5040201
0.00654938421750202 21.2461024 147143.05 -82.4715225
0.00370770063191545 9.07828618 156987.67 -77.5925926
0.00186943723287549 0.74949751 123492.856 -87.7181368
-0.0003609810822483 -8.84879944 16373.846 -73.72006
-0.001710391112479 -14.8006769 429507.99 -65.7659046
-0.0140674407175939 -70.4769339 897915.623 -48.9288509
0.0896846379516607 24.5453717 7589776.75 -6456.34135
 TRABAJO PRACTICO
VARIABLE MULTIVARIABLE

1. CONSUMO DE CAFE
Y, X,
AÑO TAZAS DIARIAS POR PERSONA $ POR LIBRA
1970 2.57 0.77
1971 2.5 0.74
1972 2.35 0.72
1973 2.3 0.73
1974 2.25 0.76
1975 2.2 0.75
1976 2.11 1.08
1977 1.94 1.81
1978 1.97 1.39
1979 2.06 1.20
1980 2.02 1.17

ANTILOG DE
2.DATOS BASICOS PARA COMPARAR DOS VALORES DE R2
Yt Ýt InYt InYt
AÑO 1 2 3 4
1970 2.57 2.321887 0.843555 2.324616
1971 2.50 2.336272 0.853611 2.348111
1972 2.35 2.345863 0.860544 2.364447
1973 2.30 2.341068 0.857054 2.356209
1974 2.25 2.326682 0.846863 2.332318
1975 2.20 2.331477 0.850214 2.340149
1976 2.11 2.173233 0.757943 2.133882
1977 1.94 1.823176 0.627279 1.872508
1978 1.97 2.024579 0.694089 2.001884
1979 2.06 2.115689 0.731282 2.077742
1980 2.02 2.130075 0.737688 2.091096

TABLA 3
AÑO Yt
1970 2.57
1971 2.5
1972 2.35
1973 2.3
1974 2.25
1975 2.2
1976 2.11
1977 1.94
1978 1.97
1979 2.06
1980 2.02
24.27
InYt In(Yt)
5 6
0.943906 0.84238
0.916291 0.848557
0.854415 0.852653
0.832909 0.850607
0.81093 0.844443
0.788457 0.846502
0.746688 0.776216
0.662688 0.60058
0.678034 0.705362
0.722706 0.749381
0.703098 0.756157

Ytt Ỹtt InYtt In̂Yt Y, gasto de consumo personal, miles de millones de

21.7 283.959 0.89410795 2.17 1 2
21.77 285.6579 0.89699217 2.177 1958 X, tiempo Ý, Y estimado
21.92 289.2984 0.90317264 2.192 281.4 1 (=1956) 261.4208
 21.97 290.5119 0.9052328 2.197 288.1 2 276.6026
22.02 291.7254 0.90729295 2.202 290 3 291.7844
22.07 292.9389 0.90935311 2.207 307.3 4 306.9661
22.16 295.1232 0.91306139 2.216 316.1 5 322.1479
22.33 299.2491 0.92006593 2.233 322.5 6 337.3297
22.3 298.521 0.91882983 2.23 338.4 7 352.5115
22.21 296.3367 0.91512155 2.221 353.3 8 367.6933
22.25 297.3075 0.91676967 2.225 373.7 9 382.8751
242.70 10 24.27 397.7 10 398.0569
418.1 11 413.2386
430.1 12 428.4206
452.7 13 443.6022
469.1 14 458.784
476.9 15 (=1970) 473.9658
rsonal, miles de millones de dolares
3 4 5 6 7
ú, residuos YtÝ (YtÝ)*100% ∑(Ý, y estimado) ´Ln Ý y estimado
19.9791 237.1508 107.6425% 1.1023399457223 4224.11266066361
 11.4973 252.3326 104.16% 1.09618257807354 4324.68677163179
-1.7844 267.5144 99.39% 1.09072408812385 4353.20778817501
0.3338 282.6961 100.11% 1.08585190952404 4612.89914933165
-6.0479 297.8779 98.12% 1.08147633644523 4744.99648911076
-14.8297 313.0597 95.60% 1.0775251493565 4841.06728167738
-14.1115 328.2415 96.00% 1.07393946225569 5079.74315696008
-14.3933 343.4233 96.09% 1.07067080189376 5303.40797090424
-9.1751 358.6051 97.60% 1.06767890361849 5609.63362221034
-0.3569 373.7869 99.91% 1.06493004436485 5969.89909433517
4.8613 388.9686 101.18% 1.06239578207598 6276.12474564128
1.6795 404.1506 100.39% 1.06005187175276 6456.25748170369
9.0977 419.3322 102.05% 1.05787773989214 6795.50746795457
10.3159 434.514 102.25% 1.05585550753255 7041.68887390654
2.9341 449.6958 100.62% 1.05396981692958 7158.7751523471
5,151.3495 1501.1061% 16.1014699375613 82792.0077065532
 3 4 5
AÑO C* P W I K-1
1920 39.8 12.7 28.8 2.7 180.1
1921 41.9 12.4 25.5 -0.2 182.8
1922 45 16.9 29.3 1.9 182.6
1923 49.2 18.4 34.1 5.2 184.5
1924 50.6 19.4 33.9 3 189.7
151.6 12.6 919.7
 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
X W' G T C´=P + I(W) K-1´´ P´ W¨+W'
44.9 2.2 2.4 3.4 90.46 153.5 1094.2 -217.28
 45.6 2.7 3.9 7.7 7.3 160 1092.1 -644.07
50.1 2.9 3.2 3.9 72.57 156.2 1095.5 -499.35
57.2 2.9 2.8 4.7 195.72 153.3 1096.6 -417.71
57.1 3.1 3.5 3.8 121.1 158.9 1102.5 -558.86
254.9 13.8 15.8 23.5 487.15 781.9 5480.9 -2337.27
 14 15 16 17
cuadro comparativo cuadro compaB3 polinomialB4 variable regresion clasica
-0.0116367749822109 -35.7632316 49851.752 -102.524486
-0.0883194365888814 -107.806974 -41827.43 -108.425711
-0.0626083307485997 -83.232597 24615.885 -100.100548
-0.0482420770311445 -70.2785838 151901.032 -90.1563686
-0.0729734167746173 -96.1594032 70560 -95.9881919
-0.283780036125454 -393.240789 255101.239 -497.195306