SIMULACIÓN MONTECARLO - TIEMPO DE ESPERA Y TRX

A un cajero automático llegan clientes con un tiempo entre llegadas que se distribuye
con una media de 2 min y desviación estándar de 12 seg, el tiempo de llegada de
normalmente es desde las 7am
El tiempo de TRX del cajero se estable dependiendo de la operación que se realice. En
se muestran las observaciones de las últimas 200 Trxs realizadas en el cajero y los
operación de cada uno.
Se requiere: Simular la llegada de 100 usuarios al cajero y determinar el tiempo de
tiempo en el sistema de cada uno de los usuarios

Rango de frecuencias
F(x) Operación Distribución Tiempo x Trx
0 Consulta Uniforme 0:00:50
0.25 Otros Uniforme 0:01:00
0.5 Retiro Uniforme 0:01:20
0.85 Transferencia Uniforme 0:02:00

Media 0:02:00 De los 200 datos

Desviación 0:00:12 ojo la desviación es pequeña, indica que

Usuarios Hora de llegada # Aleatorio Tiempo/llegada Hora de Atención Tiempo Espera

1 7:00:00 0.4079362242 12:01:57 AM 7:00:00 0:00:00
2 07:01:57 AM 0.2332016569 12:01:51 AM 07:01:57 AM 0:00:00
3 07:03:48 AM 0.4714514769 12:01:59 AM 07:03:48 AM 0:00:00
4 07:05:47 AM 0.6682260041 12:02:05 AM 07:05:47 AM 0:00:00
5 07:07:52 AM 0.0020879112 12:01:25 AM 07:07:52 AM 0:00:00
6 07:09:18 AM 0.0939281579 12:01:44 AM 07:09:18 AM 0:00:00
7 07:11:02 AM 0.8949454527 12:02:15 AM 07:11:02 AM 0:00:00
8 07:13:17 AM 0.8989341343 12:02:15 AM 07:13:17 AM 0:00:00
9 07:15:32 AM 0.3890519488 12:01:56 AM 07:15:32 AM 0:00:00
10 07:17:29 AM 0.0567555966 12:01:41 AM 07:17:29 AM 0:00:00
11 07:19:10 AM 0.0063215142 12:01:30 AM 07:19:10 AM 0:00:00
12 07:20:40 AM 0.7233247933 12:02:07 AM 07:20:40 AM 0:00:00
13 07:22:47 AM 0.2698419223 12:01:52 AM 07:22:47 AM 0:00:00
14 07:24:40 AM 0.1031764972 12:01:44 AM 07:24:40 AM 0:00:00
15 07:26:25 AM 0.5343569897 12:02:01 AM 07:26:25 AM 0:00:00
16 07:28:26 AM 0.7763081606 12:02:09 AM 07:28:26 AM 0:00:00
17 07:30:35 AM 0.9120016993 12:02:16 AM 07:30:35 AM 0:00:00
18 07:32:51 AM 0.6949400721 12:02:06 AM 07:32:51 AM 0:00:00
19 07:34:57 AM 0.2095204742 12:01:50 AM 07:34:57 AM 0:00:00
20 07:36:48 AM 0.2148197512 12:01:50 AM 07:36:57 AM 0:00:09
21 07:38:38 AM 0.1162346531 12:01:45 AM 07:38:38 AM 0:00:00
22 07:40:24 AM 0.5870988121 12:02:02 AM 07:40:24 AM 0:00:00
23 07:42:26 AM 0.860882163 12:02:13 AM 07:42:26 AM 0:00:00
24 07:44:39 AM 0.6190967105 12:02:03 AM 07:44:39 AM 0:00:00
25 07:46:43 AM 0.6557769466 12:02:04 AM 07:46:43 AM 0:00:00
26 07:48:48 AM 0.2783332442 12:01:52 AM 07:48:48 AM 0:00:00
27 07:50:41 AM 0.5027123869 12:02:00 AM 07:50:41 AM 0:00:00
28 07:52:41 AM 0.8056134482 12:02:10 AM 07:52:41 AM 0:00:00
29 07:54:51 AM 0.3640138931 12:01:55 AM 07:54:51 AM 0:00:00
30 07:56:47 AM 0.2691669736 12:01:52 AM 07:56:47 AM 0:00:00
31 07:58:40 AM 0.843718763 12:02:12 AM 07:58:40 AM 0:00:00
32 08:00:52 AM 0.9464841319 12:02:19 AM 08:00:52 AM 0:00:00
33 08:03:11 AM 0.4827791188 12:01:59 AM 08:03:11 AM 0:00:00
34 08:05:11 AM 0.5553764726 12:02:01 AM 08:05:11 AM 0:00:00
35 08:07:12 AM 0.5204343561 12:02:00 AM 08:07:12 AM 0:00:00
36 08:09:13 AM 0.0910586805 12:01:43 AM 08:09:13 AM 0:00:00
37 08:10:57 AM 0.5061417675 12:02:00 AM 08:10:57 AM 0:00:00
38 08:12:57 AM 0.821183078 12:02:11 AM 08:12:57 AM 0:00:00
39 08:15:08 AM 0.0402665783 12:01:39 AM 08:15:08 AM 0:00:00
40 08:16:47 AM 0.2701901083 12:01:52 AM 08:16:47 AM 0:00:00
41 08:18:40 AM 0.9098715807 12:02:16 AM 08:18:40 AM 0:00:00
42 08:20:56 AM 0.3032348161 12:01:53 AM 08:20:56 AM 0:00:00
43 08:22:50 AM 0.3314562448 12:01:54 AM 08:22:50 AM 0:00:00
44 08:24:44 AM 0.9971400736 12:02:33 AM 08:24:44 AM 0:00:00
45 08:27:18 AM 0.5608987513 12:02:01 AM 08:27:18 AM 0:00:00
46 08:29:19 AM 0.4663540923 12:01:58 AM 08:29:19 AM 0:00:00
47 08:31:18 AM 0.1714307237 12:01:48 AM 08:31:18 AM 0:00:00
48 08:33:07 AM 0.1932907929 12:01:49 AM 08:33:07 AM 0:00:00
49 08:34:57 AM 0.7717097069 12:02:08 AM 08:34:57 AM 0:00:00
50 08:37:06 AM 0.3083633829 12:01:53 AM 08:37:06 AM 0:00:00
51 08:39:00 AM 0.896237513 12:02:15 AM 08:39:00 AM 0:00:00
52 08:41:15 AM 0.7134992373 12:02:06 AM 08:41:15 AM 0:00:00
53 08:43:22 AM 0.0056889272 12:01:29 AM 08:43:22 AM 0:00:00
54 08:44:51 AM 0.4258532981 12:01:57 AM 08:44:51 AM 0:00:00
55 08:46:49 AM 0.4833869227 12:01:59 AM 08:46:49 AM 0:00:00
56 08:48:48 AM 0.4025248185 12:01:57 AM 08:48:49 AM 0:00:00
57 08:50:45 AM 0.124236285 12:01:46 AM 08:50:48 AM 0:00:02
58 08:52:32 AM 0.508089275 12:02:00 AM 08:52:32 AM 0:00:00
59 08:54:32 AM 0.2286593609 12:01:51 AM 08:54:32 AM 0:00:00
60 08:56:23 AM 0.6040217911 12:02:03 AM 08:56:23 AM 0:00:00
61 08:58:26 AM 0.2078328418 12:01:50 AM 08:58:26 AM 0:00:00
62 09:00:16 AM 0.010919297 12:01:32 AM 09:00:16 AM 0:00:00
63 09:01:49 AM 0.5345467952 12:02:01 AM 09:01:49 AM 0:00:00
64 09:03:50 AM 0.455283783 12:01:58 AM 09:03:50 AM 0:00:00
65 09:05:48 AM 0.0774758479 12:01:42 AM 09:05:48 AM 0:00:00
66 09:07:31 AM 0.505374664 12:02:00 AM 09:07:48 AM 0:00:17
67 09:09:32 AM 0.1158113691 12:01:45 AM 09:09:32 AM 0:00:00
68 09:11:17 AM 0.9881004931 12:02:27 AM 09:11:17 AM 0:00:00
69 09:13:44 AM 0.7784889464 12:02:09 AM 09:13:44 AM 0:00:00
70 09:15:54 AM 0.912702269 12:02:16 AM 09:15:54 AM 0:00:00
 71 09:18:10 AM 0.7103359108 12:02:06 AM 09:18:10 AM 0:00:00
72 09:20:17 AM 0.054651682 12:01:40 AM 09:20:17 AM 0:00:00
73 09:21:57 AM 0.8223088958 12:02:11 AM 09:21:57 AM 0:00:00
74 09:24:08 AM 0.9580058943 12:02:20 AM 09:24:08 AM 0:00:00
75 09:26:29 AM 0.7969625424 12:02:09 AM 09:26:29 AM 0:00:00
76 09:28:39 AM 0.9290317507 12:02:17 AM 09:28:39 AM 0:00:00
77 09:30:57 AM 0.7829647283 12:02:09 AM 09:30:57 AM 0:00:00
78 09:33:06 AM 0.0016974529 12:01:24 AM 09:33:06 AM 0:00:00
79 09:34:31 AM 0.0220782208 12:01:35 AM 09:34:31 AM 0:00:00
80 09:36:07 AM 0.7230565433 12:02:07 AM 09:36:07 AM 0:00:00
81 09:38:14 AM 0.6272108713 12:02:03 AM 09:38:14 AM 0:00:00
82 09:40:18 AM 0.5335369006 12:02:01 AM 09:40:18 AM 0:00:00
83 09:42:19 AM 0.6714342595 12:02:05 AM 09:42:19 AM 0:00:00
84 09:44:24 AM 0.3006158316 12:01:53 AM 09:44:24 AM 0:00:00
85 09:46:18 AM 0.9576800791 12:02:20 AM 09:46:18 AM 0:00:00
86 09:48:39 AM 0.9999560172 12:02:47 AM 09:48:39 AM 0:00:00
87 09:51:26 AM 0.1450262346 12:01:47 AM 09:51:26 AM 0:00:00
88 09:53:13 AM 0.9658613094 12:02:21 AM 09:53:13 AM 0:00:00
89 09:55:35 AM 0.5369161594 12:02:01 AM 09:55:35 AM 0:00:00
90 09:57:36 AM 0.1771321714 12:01:48 AM 09:57:36 AM 0:00:00
91 09:59:25 AM 0.1223197818 12:01:46 AM 09:59:25 AM 0:00:00
92 10:01:11 AM 0.1743175398 12:01:48 AM 10:01:11 AM 0:00:00
93 10:03:00 AM 0.2262913286 12:01:50 AM 10:03:00 AM 0:00:00
94 10:04:51 AM 0.3134053819 12:01:54 AM 10:05:00 AM 0:00:09
95 10:06:45 AM 0.7939984875 12:02:09 AM 10:06:45 AM 0:00:00
96 10:08:55 AM 0.0030234241 12:01:27 AM 10:08:55 AM 0:00:00
97 10:10:22 AM 0.8155984924 12:02:10 AM 10:10:22 AM 0:00:00
98 10:12:32 AM 0.4578321125 12:01:58 AM 10:12:32 AM 0:00:00
99 10:14:31 AM 0.8574077608 12:02:12 AM 10:14:31 AM 0:00:00
100 10:16:44 AM 0.8357912769 12:02:11 AM 10:16:44 AM 0:00:00
0:00:39
No sería una buena decisión poner otro
125
MPO DE ESPERA Y TRX
tre llegadas que se distribuye normalmente
seg, el tiempo de llegada de los clientes
e las 7am
Transacción # de TRX
operación que se realice. En la tabla anexa Retiros 70
realizadas en el cajero y los tiempos de Consultas 50
uno. Otras 50
Transferencias 30
ro y determinar el tiempo de espera y el Total 200
no de los usuarios
1000
250 250 350

Calculo de Probabilidad
Consultas Otros Retiros
f 50 50 70
Frecuencia relativa f(x) 0.25 0.25 0.35
Frecuencia relativa acumuladaF(x) 0.25 0.5 0.85
.0-25 .0.25a0.5 .0.5 a 0.85
Linf-LiS

os 200 datos
a desviación es pequeña, indica que la media es un buen indicador de tendencia central

Op. Escogida Tiempo de Op # Aleatorio2 Hora de Salida

Retiro 12:01:20 AM 0.73391425 7:01:20
Consulta 12:00:50 AM 0.01351636 7:02:47 Arrastrar
Otros 12:01:00 AM 0.48979066 7:04:48
Otros 12:01:00 AM 0.43896399 7:06:47
Retiro 12:01:20 AM 0.63783499 7:09:12
Retiro 12:01:20 AM 0.59000285 7:10:38
Retiro 12:01:20 AM 0.66892251 7:12:22
Retiro 12:01:20 AM 0.78965268 7:14:37
Retiro 12:01:20 AM 0.65557188 7:16:52
Consulta 12:00:50 AM 0.07807487 7:18:19
Otros 12:01:00 AM 0.32934774 7:20:10
Otros 12:01:00 AM 0.4034777 7:21:40
Retiro 12:01:20 AM 0.57202626 7:24:07
Otros 12:01:00 AM 0.43765316 7:25:40
Transferencia 12:02:00 AM 0.93065122 7:28:25
Otros 12:01:00 AM 0.40786416 7:29:26
Transferencia 12:02:00 AM 0.89130317 7:32:35
Otros 12:01:00 AM 0.45376496 7:33:51
Transferencia 12:02:00 AM 0.87186443 7:36:57
Otros 12:01:00 AM 0.31941548 7:37:48
Otros 12:01:00 AM 0.43051942 7:39:38
Retiro 12:01:20 AM 0.70361321 7:41:44
Otros 12:01:00 AM 0.48258382 7:43:26
Consulta 12:00:50 AM 0.10231782 7:45:29
Retiro 12:01:20 AM 0.66109141 7:48:03
Consulta 12:00:50 AM 0.11236664 7:49:38
Transferencia 12:02:00 AM 0.89362035 7:52:41
Otros 12:01:00 AM 0.35897933 7:53:41
Retiro 12:01:20 AM 0.84433234 7:56:11
Consulta 12:00:50 AM 0.1987918 7:57:37
Consulta 12:00:50 AM 0.20407304 7:59:30
Retiro 12:01:20 AM 0.60539072 8:02:12
Consulta 12:00:50 AM 0.19531972 8:04:01
Retiro 12:01:20 AM 0.55891434 8:06:31
Otros 12:01:00 AM 0.44984551 8:08:12
Otros 12:01:00 AM 0.40453932 8:10:13
Otros 12:01:00 AM 0.37944047 8:11:57
Retiro 12:01:20 AM 0.72893801 8:14:17
Retiro 12:01:20 AM 0.55710462 8:16:28
Consulta 12:00:50 AM 0.22294486 8:17:37
Consulta 12:00:50 AM 0.03454454 8:19:30
Retiro 12:01:20 AM 0.78460042 8:22:16
Otros 12:01:00 AM 0.38017997 8:23:50
Retiro 12:01:20 AM 0.825788 8:26:04
Retiro 12:01:20 AM 0.642222 8:28:38
Retiro 12:01:20 AM 0.60374455 8:30:39
Consulta 12:00:50 AM 0.10530097 8:32:08
Consulta 12:00:50 AM 0.1302501 8:33:57
Otros 12:01:00 AM 0.46459549 8:35:57
Consulta 12:00:50 AM 0.22518175 8:37:56
Consulta 12:00:50 AM 0.01951014 8:39:50
Consulta 12:00:50 AM 0.07774855 8:42:05
Consulta 12:00:50 AM 0.16125998 8:44:12
Otros 12:01:00 AM 0.27655473 8:45:51
Transferencia 12:02:00 AM 0.92650812 8:48:49
Transferencia 12:02:00 AM 0.95121234 8:50:48
Retiro 12:01:20 AM 0.70809602 8:52:05
Consulta 12:00:50 AM 0.07946773 8:53:22
Retiro 12:01:20 AM 0.61171794 8:55:52
Consulta 12:00:50 AM 0.1346617 8:57:13
Retiro 12:01:20 AM 0.64683416 8:59:46
Consulta 12:00:50 AM 0.03441296 9:01:06
Consulta 12:00:50 AM 0.01749645 9:02:39
Consulta 12:00:50 AM 0.1925107 9:04:40
Transferencia 12:02:00 AM 0.91652344 9:07:48
Retiro 12:01:20 AM 0.6538544 9:08:51
Retiro 12:01:20 AM 0.66192431 9:10:52
Otros 12:01:00 AM 0.32220126 9:12:17
Retiro 12:01:20 AM 0.84348592 9:15:04
Otros 12:01:00 AM 0.26841677 9:16:54
 Consulta 12:00:50 AM 0.13414887 9:19:00
Retiro 12:01:20 AM 0.59574614 9:21:37
Retiro 12:01:20 AM 0.59463411 9:23:17
Retiro 12:01:20 AM 0.55018621 9:25:28
Transferencia 12:02:00 AM 0.9254831 9:28:29
Retiro 12:01:20 AM 0.69193177 9:29:59
Consulta 12:00:50 AM 0.13838889 9:31:47
Consulta 12:00:50 AM 0.05068394 9:33:56
Consulta 12:00:50 AM 0.06136551 9:35:21
Otros 12:01:00 AM 0.35224756 9:37:07
Consulta 12:00:50 AM 0.13967146 9:39:04
Consulta 12:00:50 AM 0.23044073 9:41:08
Retiro 12:01:20 AM 0.75540269 9:43:39
Consulta 12:00:50 AM 0.13628822 9:45:14
Retiro 12:01:20 AM 0.5295189 9:47:38
Consulta 12:00:50 AM 0.22144247 9:49:29
Consulta 12:00:50 AM 0.24805676 9:52:16
Transferencia 12:02:00 AM 0.97466877 9:55:13
Transferencia 12:02:00 AM 0.85056304 9:57:35
Consulta 12:00:50 AM 0.22166771 9:58:26
Retiro 12:01:20 AM 0.84050005 10:00:45
Consulta 12:00:50 AM 0.04953355 10:02:01
Transferencia 12:02:00 AM 0.95186059 10:05:00
Otros 12:01:00 AM 0.30576173 10:05:51
Otros 12:01:00 AM 0.27008657 10:07:45
Retiro 12:01:20 AM 0.80541044 10:10:15
Retiro 12:01:20 AM 0.6522344 10:11:42
Otros 12:01:00 AM 0.4195958 10:13:32
Otros 12:01:00 AM 0.41900198 10:15:31
Otros 12:01:00 AM 0.45777241 10:17:44

ería una buena decisión poner otro cajero

 150

obabilidad
Transferencias
30
0.15
1
.0.85 a1
 SIMULACIÓN MONTECARLO - VAN PROMEDIO ESPERADO

Una empresa se enfrenta a la posibilidad de invetir en una tecnología muy novedosa

para su planta de producción con el objetivo de incrementar la productividad y la
flexibilidad de la misma. La inversión supone un desembolso de 50.000.000 de dolares.
La duración de la inversión asi como los flujos de caja anuales son variables aleatorias
que pueden tomar los valores que recogen las tablas siguientes con una tir del 6%.
Se requiere:
1.-Simular el Valor Actual Neto para una corrida de 5 Datos
2.-Generar la gráfica de estabilización para una corrida de 300 datos, encontar su
media, su desviación estandar y su intervalo de confianza para la muestra.

DURACIÓN Inv Inicial

AÑOS 3 4 5 Tir
Probabilidad f(x) 10% 60% 30%
F(x) 10% 70% 100%

L inf L sup Duración

0% 10% 3
10% 70% 4
70% 100% 5

Flujo de Caja 15,000,000 35,000,000 40,000,000

Probabilidad f(x) 30% 40% 30%
F(x) 30% 70% 100%

L inf L sup Flujo de Caja

0% 30% 15,000,000
30% 70% 35,000,000
70% 100% 40,000,000

.=BUSCARV(B38;$B$22:$D$24;3;VERDADERO) .=BUSCARV(D38;$B$31:$D$33;3;VERDADERO)
Año1 Año2
Aleatorios Duración Duración Aleatorios F. Caja F. de Caja Duración Aleatorios F. Caja
0.18 4 0.16 15,000,000 4 0.49
0.85 5 0.21 15,000,000 5 0.62
0.23 4 0.31 35,000,000 4 0.12
0.08 3 0 15,000,000 3 0.16
 0.54 4 0.85 40,000,000 4 0.45

1 Año1 Año2
2 Aleatorios Duración Duración Aleatorios F. Caja F. de Caja Duración Aleatorios F. Caja
3 0.26 4 0.02 15,000,000 4 0.49
4 0.60 4 0.55 35,000,000 4 0.99
5 0.00 3 0.66 35,000,000 3 0.43
6 0.29 4 0.77 40,000,000 4 0.92
7 0.57 4 0.20 15,000,000 4 0.93
8 0.97 5 0.23 15,000,000 5 0.54
9 0.12 4 0.62 35,000,000 4 0.42
10 0.31 4 0.90 40,000,000 4 0.21
11 0.43 4 0.68 35,000,000 4 0.90
12 0.64 4 0.33 35,000,000 4 0.76
13 0.67 4 0.71 40,000,000 4 0.43
14 0.60 4 0.74 40,000,000 4 0.09
15 0.01 3 0.68 35,000,000 3 0.59
16 0.30 4 0.66 35,000,000 4 0.74
17 0.39 4 0.80 40,000,000 4 0.57
18 0.03 3 0.10 15,000,000 3 0.11
19 0.37 4 0.17 15,000,000 4 0.06
20 0.11 4 0.98 40,000,000 4 0.08
21 0.23 4 0.26 15,000,000 4 0.48
22 0.07 3 0.17 15,000,000 3 0.36
23 0.44 4 0.91 40,000,000 4 0.82
24 0.11 4 0.90 40,000,000 4 0.17
25 0.22 4 0.10 15,000,000 4 0.60
26 0.62 4 0.32 35,000,000 4 0.84
27 0.91 5 0.24 15,000,000 5 0.48
28 0.17 4 0.29 15,000,000 4 0.89
29 0.59 4 0.55 35,000,000 4 0.27
30 0.29 4 0.60 35,000,000 4 0.90
31 0.73 5 0.22 15,000,000 5 0.75
32 0.12 4 0.60 35,000,000 4 0.83
33 0.50 4 0.65 35,000,000 4 0.85
34 0.97 5 0.86 40,000,000 5 0.64
35 0.19 4 0.08 15,000,000 4 0.35
36 0.65 4 0.33 35,000,000 4 0.53
37 0.24 4 0.37 35,000,000 4 0.18
38 0.47 4 0.15 15,000,000 4 0.61
39 0.17 4 0.05 15,000,000 4 0.03
40 0.98 5 0.51 35,000,000 5 0.59
41 0.39 4 0.94 40,000,000 4 0.09
42 0.22 4 1.00 40,000,000 4 0.41
43 0.48 4 0.21 15,000,000 4 0.20
44 0.68 4 0.86 40,000,000 4 0.60
45 0.25 4 0.62 35,000,000 4 0.11
46 0.79 5 0.39 35,000,000 5 0.24
47 0.88 5 0.15 15,000,000 5 0.95
48 0.06 3 0.02 15,000,000 3 0.80
49 0.55 4 0.14 15,000,000 4 0.12
50 0.98 5 0.64 35,000,000 5 0.76
51 1.00 5 0.51 35,000,000 5 0.28
52 0.76 5 0.11 15,000,000 5 0.84
53 0.16 4 0.71 40,000,000 4 0.66
54 0.43 4 0.89 40,000,000 4 0.43
55 0.05 3 0.34 35,000,000 3 0.16
56 0.54 4 0.60 35,000,000 4 0.57
57 0.44 4 0.56 35,000,000 4 0.59
58 0.27 4 0.15 15,000,000 4 0.88
59 0.03 3 0.54 35,000,000 3 0.63
60 0.06 3 0.50 35,000,000 3 0.24
61 0.56 4 0.12 15,000,000 4 0.44
62 0.97 5 0.86 40,000,000 5 0.94
63 0.34 4 0.48 35,000,000 4 0.97
64 0.67 4 0.94 40,000,000 4 0.13
65 0.25 4 0.76 40,000,000 4 0.97
66 0.65 4 0.63 35,000,000 4 0.18
67 0.38 4 0.17 15,000,000 4 0.71
68 0.01 3 0.05 15,000,000 3 0.98
69 0.09 3 0.94 40,000,000 3 0.64
70 0.46 4 0.95 40,000,000 4 0.14
71 0.35 4 0.22 15,000,000 4 0.48
72 0.78 5 0.41 35,000,000 5 0.32
73 0.29 4 0.37 35,000,000 4 0.22
74 0.28 4 0.76 40,000,000 4 0.13
75 0.84 5 0.46 35,000,000 5 0.40
76 0.03 3 0.61 35,000,000 3 0.14
77 0.77 5 0.68 35,000,000 5 0.59
78 0.36 4 0.82 40,000,000 4 0.24
79 0.56 4 0.88 40,000,000 4 0.09
80 0.57 4 0.42 35,000,000 4 0.28
81 0.21 4 0.90 40,000,000 4 0.74
82 0.66 4 0.10 15,000,000 4 0.67
83 0.42 4 0.79 40,000,000 4 0.58
84 0.14 4 0.40 35,000,000 4 0.96
85 0.71 5 0.11 15,000,000 5 0.09
86 0.11 4 0.00 15,000,000 4 0.96
87 0.00 3 0.02 15,000,000 3 0.69
88 0.62 4 0.50 35,000,000 4 0.66
 89 0.25 4 0.55 35,000,000 4 0.59
90 0.63 4 0.57 35,000,000 4 0.40
91 0.37 4 0.00 15,000,000 4 0.66
92 0.76 5 0.28 15,000,000 5 0.27
93 0.28 4 0.41 35,000,000 4 0.38
94 0.55 4 0.29 15,000,000 4 0.70
95 0.44 4 0.53 35,000,000 4 0.64
96 0.90 5 0.40 35,000,000 5 0.14
97 0.04 3 0.50 35,000,000 3 0.64
98 0.40 4 0.04 15,000,000 4 0.27
99 0.88 5 0.20 15,000,000 5 0.71
100 0.73 5 0.26 15,000,000 5 0.82
101 0.96 5 0.00 15,000,000 5 0.46
102 0.53 4 0.15 15,000,000 4 0.29
103 0.90 5 0.48 35,000,000 5 0.21
104 0.27 4 0.16 15,000,000 4 0.74
105 0.77 5 0.28 15,000,000 5 0.59
106 0.03 3 0.74 40,000,000 3 0.13
107 0.34 4 0.73 40,000,000 4 0.90
108 0.72 5 0.40 35,000,000 5 0.14
109 0.43 4 0.31 35,000,000 4 0.04
110 0.07 3 0.20 15,000,000 3 0.29
111 0.55 4 0.30 35,000,000 4 0.29
112 0.03 3 0.06 15,000,000 3 0.30
113 0.35 4 0.87 40,000,000 4 0.63
114 0.32 4 0.25 15,000,000 4 0.79
115 0.65 4 0.95 40,000,000 4 0.46
116 0.02 3 0.33 35,000,000 3 0.88
117 0.02 3 0.31 35,000,000 3 0.57
118 0.26 4 0.66 35,000,000 4 0.46
119 0.95 5 0.47 35,000,000 5 0.48
120 0.63 4 0.29 15,000,000 4 0.88
121 0.92 5 0.90 40,000,000 5 0.92
122 0.59 4 0.59 35,000,000 4 0.46
123 0.67 4 0.61 35,000,000 4 0.99
124 0.53 4 0.69 35,000,000 4 0.64
125 0.19 4 0.08 15,000,000 4 0.72
126 0.80 5 0.71 40,000,000 5 0.88
127 0.35 4 0.18 15,000,000 4 0.10
128 0.13 4 0.25 15,000,000 4 0.10
129 0.59 4 0.12 15,000,000 4 0.91
130 0.02 3 0.38 35,000,000 3 0.11
131 0.99 5 0.42 35,000,000 5 0.57
132 0.01 3 0.29 15,000,000 3 0.52
133 0.48 4 0.93 40,000,000 4 0.17
134 0.35 4 0.60 35,000,000 4 0.11
135 0.37 4 0.37 35,000,000 4 0.50
136 0.48 4 0.45 35,000,000 4 0.30
137 0.68 4 0.70 40,000,000 4 0.41
138 0.39 4 0.01 15,000,000 4 0.17
139 0.42 4 0.63 35,000,000 4 0.10
140 0.31 4 0.71 40,000,000 4 0.65
141 0.32 4 0.44 35,000,000 4 0.35
142 0.94 5 0.23 15,000,000 5 0.39
143 0.59 4 0.81 40,000,000 4 0.68
144 0.96 5 0.01 15,000,000 5 0.22
145 0.75 5 0.11 15,000,000 5 0.70
146 0.96 5 0.32 35,000,000 5 0.43
147 0.90 5 0.82 40,000,000 5 0.13
148 0.22 4 0.49 35,000,000 4 0.89
149 0.34 4 0.81 40,000,000 4 0.04
150 0.96 5 0.62 35,000,000 5 0.34
151 0.10 3 0.98 40,000,000 3 0.77
152 0.60 4 0.79 40,000,000 4 0.90
153 0.35 4 0.39 35,000,000 4 0.75
154 0.12 4 0.79 40,000,000 4 0.35
155 0.31 4 0.58 35,000,000 4 0.29
156 0.43 4 0.93 40,000,000 4 0.36
157 0.16 4 0.05 15,000,000 4 0.98
158 0.39 4 0.60 35,000,000 4 0.08
159 0.51 4 0.97 40,000,000 4 0.14
160 0.60 4 0.31 35,000,000 4 0.77
161 0.82 5 0.86 40,000,000 5 0.43
162 0.27 4 0.19 15,000,000 4 0.72
163 0.06 3 0.37 35,000,000 3 0.84
164 0.53 4 0.22 15,000,000 4 0.85
165 0.28 4 0.08 15,000,000 4 0.85
166 0.14 4 0.19 15,000,000 4 0.03
167 0.65 4 0.81 40,000,000 4 0.95
168 0.81 5 0.15 15,000,000 5 0.19
169 0.20 4 0.45 35,000,000 4 0.55
170 0.13 4 0.35 35,000,000 4 0.50
171 0.33 4 0.82 40,000,000 4 0.68
172 0.52 4 0.69 35,000,000 4 0.75
173 0.70 4 0.41 35,000,000 4 0.73
174 0.40 4 0.57 35,000,000 4 0.22
175 0.92 5 0.88 40,000,000 5 0.00
176 0.47 4 0.87 40,000,000 4 0.46
177 0.31 4 0.74 40,000,000 4 0.38
178 0.11 4 0.10 15,000,000 4 0.40
179 0.37 4 0.34 35,000,000 4 0.14
180 0.99 5 0.05 15,000,000 5 0.81
181 0.85 5 0.79 40,000,000 5 0.21
182 0.20 4 0.44 35,000,000 4 0.59
183 0.01 3 0.97 40,000,000 3 0.59
184 0.64 4 0.09 15,000,000 4 0.85
185 0.61 4 0.57 35,000,000 4 0.36
186 0.17 4 0.36 35,000,000 4 0.68
187 0.28 4 0.98 40,000,000 4 0.54
188 0.59 4 0.36 35,000,000 4 0.13
189 0.88 5 0.99 40,000,000 5 0.69
190 0.39 4 0.60 35,000,000 4 0.48
191 0.26 4 0.13 15,000,000 4 0.61
192 0.52 4 0.49 35,000,000 4 0.79
193 0.96 5 0.60 35,000,000 5 0.69
194 0.75 5 0.83 40,000,000 5 0.31
195 0.96 5 0.87 40,000,000 5 0.68
196 0.51 4 0.85 40,000,000 4 0.89
197 0.29 4 0.01 15,000,000 4 0.50
198 0.89 5 0.13 15,000,000 5 0.45
199 0.69 4 0.55 35,000,000 4 0.93
200 0.75 5 0.69 35,000,000 5 0.31
201 0.33 4 0.08 15,000,000 4 0.45
202 0.87 5 0.63 35,000,000 5 0.41
203 0.13 4 0.03 15,000,000 4 0.95
204 0.24 4 0.26 15,000,000 4 0.76
205 0.98 5 0.61 35,000,000 5 0.85
206 0.05 3 0.29 15,000,000 3 0.31
207 0.72 5 0.82 40,000,000 5 0.69
208 0.87 5 0.98 40,000,000 5 0.41
209 0.62 4 0.45 35,000,000 4 0.93
210 0.74 5 0.39 35,000,000 5 0.10
211 0.47 4 0.96 40,000,000 4 0.58
212 0.35 4 0.26 15,000,000 4 0.84
213 0.64 4 0.01 15,000,000 4 0.68
214 0.69 4 0.26 15,000,000 4 0.86
215 0.69 4 0.59 35,000,000 4 0.39
216 0.01 3 0.44 35,000,000 3 0.20
217 0.63 4 0.47 35,000,000 4 0.31
218 0.60 4 0.14 15,000,000 4 0.99
219 0.53 4 0.94 40,000,000 4 0.17
220 0.47 4 0.81 40,000,000 4 0.51
221 0.82 5 0.38 35,000,000 5 0.02
222 0.98 5 0.54 35,000,000 5 0.51
223 0.26 4 0.38 35,000,000 4 0.32
224 0.59 4 0.23 15,000,000 4 0.22
225 0.49 4 0.39 35,000,000 4 0.85
226 0.23 4 0.52 35,000,000 4 0.11
227 0.22 4 0.72 40,000,000 4 0.09
228 0.78 5 0.86 40,000,000 5 0.68
229 0.60 4 0.14 15,000,000 4 0.33
230 0.47 4 0.91 40,000,000 4 0.03
231 0.93 5 0.70 40,000,000 5 0.86
232 0.36 4 0.78 40,000,000 4 0.27
233 0.48 4 0.82 40,000,000 4 0.55
234 0.49 4 0.07 15,000,000 4 0.43
235 0.65 4 0.93 40,000,000 4 0.48
236 0.16 4 0.01 15,000,000 4 0.23
237 0.29 4 0.32 35,000,000 4 0.67
238 0.84 5 0.18 15,000,000 5 0.43
239 0.56 4 0.86 40,000,000 4 0.13
240 0.47 4 0.51 35,000,000 4 0.53
241 0.13 4 0.69 35,000,000 4 0.77
242 1.00 5 0.35 35,000,000 5 0.51
243 0.19 4 0.29 15,000,000 4 0.25
244 0.40 4 0.82 40,000,000 4 0.27
245 0.24 4 0.81 40,000,000 4 0.66
246 0.64 4 0.46 35,000,000 4 0.49
247 0.16 4 0.96 40,000,000 4 0.52
248 0.84 5 0.79 40,000,000 5 0.89
249 0.84 5 0.09 15,000,000 5 0.43
250 0.16 4 0.45 35,000,000 4 0.22
251 0.90 5 0.32 35,000,000 5 0.96
252 0.40 4 0.01 15,000,000 4 0.07
253 0.08 3 0.36 35,000,000 3 0.99
254 0.14 4 0.16 15,000,000 4 0.62
255 0.28 4 0.73 40,000,000 4 0.75
256 0.84 5 0.54 35,000,000 5 0.43
257 0.08 3 0.47 35,000,000 3 0.88
258 0.24 4 0.96 40,000,000 4 0.67
259 0.74 5 0.01 15,000,000 5 0.51
260 0.08 3 0.22 15,000,000 3 0.19
261 0.37 4 0.41 35,000,000 4 0.31
262 0.77 5 0.30 15,000,000 5 0.16
263 0.71 5 0.07 15,000,000 5 0.71
264 0.57 4 0.24 15,000,000 4 0.13
265 0.21 4 0.53 35,000,000 4 0.94
266 0.24 4 0.13 15,000,000 4 0.70
267 0.05 3 0.65 35,000,000 3 0.26
268 0.66 4 0.87 40,000,000 4 0.17
269 0.72 5 0.68 35,000,000 5 0.74
270 0.34 4 0.82 40,000,000 4 1.00
271 0.02 3 0.42 35,000,000 3 0.53
272 0.92 5 0.65 35,000,000 5 0.93
273 0.85 5 0.87 40,000,000 5 0.26
274 0.03 3 0.25 15,000,000 3 0.60
275 0.82 5 0.46 35,000,000 5 0.05
276 0.78 5 0.56 35,000,000 5 0.63
277 0.24 4 0.92 40,000,000 4 0.54
278 0.43 4 0.73 40,000,000 4 0.34
279 0.27 4 0.31 35,000,000 4 0.87
280 0.94 5 0.23 15,000,000 5 0.59
281 0.02 3 0.79 40,000,000 3 0.99
282 0.71 5 0.41 35,000,000 5 0.55
283 0.79 5 0.33 35,000,000 5 0.35
284 0.77 5 0.68 35,000,000 5 0.40
285 0.25 4 0.20 15,000,000 4 0.25
286 0.24 4 0.28 15,000,000 4 0.12
287 0.36 4 0.69 35,000,000 4 0.74
288 0.78 5 0.96 40,000,000 5 0.75
289 0.15 4 0.36 35,000,000 4 0.10
290 0.47 4 0.04 15,000,000 4 0.63
291 0.69 4 0.14 15,000,000 4 0.19
292 0.66 4 0.28 15,000,000 4 0.25
293 0.36 4 0.22 15,000,000 4 0.25
294 0.08 3 0.21 15,000,000 3 0.61
295 0.53 4 0.82 40,000,000 4 0.47
296 0.46 4 0.10 15,000,000 4 0.18
297 0.89 5 0.08 15,000,000 5 0.98
298 0.45 4 0.36 35,000,000 4 0.37
299 0.11 4 0.87 40,000,000 4 0.90
300 0.38 4 0.55 35,000,000 4 0.08
PERADO EJERCICIO DE TOMA LAS MEJORES DECISIONES
PAGINA 159

a muy novedosa
uctividad y la
00.000 de dolares.
riables aleatorias
una tir del 6%.

s, encontar su
uestra.

50,000,000
6%

;VERDADERO)
Año2 Año3 Año4
F. de Caja Duración Aleatorios F. Caja F. de Caja Duración Aleatorios F. Caja F. de Caja
35,000,000 4 0.59 35,000,000 4 0.27 15,000,000
35,000,000 5 0.69 35,000,000 5 0.64 35,000,000
15,000,000 4 0.73 40,000,000 4 0.02 15,000,000
15,000,000 3 0.16 15,000,000 3 0.46 35,000,000
 35,000,000 4 0.14 15,000,000 4 0.46 35,000,000

Año2 Año3 Año4

F. de Caja Duración Aleatorios F. Caja F. de Caja Duración Aleatorios F. Caja F. de Caja
35,000,000 4 0.66 35,000,000 4 0.12 15,000,000
40,000,000 4 0.06 15,000,000 4 0.19 15,000,000
35,000,000 3 0.21 15,000,000 3 0.64 35,000,000
40,000,000 4 0.79 40,000,000 4 0.22 15,000,000
40,000,000 4 0.42 35,000,000 4 0.66 35,000,000
35,000,000 5 0.29 15,000,000 5 0.93 40,000,000
35,000,000 4 0.50 35,000,000 4 0.34 35,000,000
15,000,000 4 0.77 40,000,000 4 0.98 40,000,000
40,000,000 4 0.51 35,000,000 4 0.49 35,000,000
40,000,000 4 0.35 35,000,000 4 0.54 35,000,000
35,000,000 4 0.11 15,000,000 4 0.56 35,000,000
15,000,000 4 0.40 35,000,000 4 1.00 40,000,000
35,000,000 3 0.79 40,000,000 3 0.01 15,000,000
40,000,000 4 0.57 35,000,000 4 0.63 35,000,000
35,000,000 4 0.60 35,000,000 4 0.16 15,000,000
15,000,000 3 0.07 15,000,000 3 0.84 40,000,000
15,000,000 4 0.04 15,000,000 4 0.78 40,000,000
15,000,000 4 0.81 40,000,000 4 0.33 35,000,000
35,000,000 4 0.97 40,000,000 4 0.05 15,000,000
35,000,000 3 0.45 35,000,000 3 0.02 15,000,000
40,000,000 4 0.19 15,000,000 4 0.74 40,000,000
15,000,000 4 0.64 35,000,000 4 0.09 15,000,000
35,000,000 4 0.54 35,000,000 4 0.95 40,000,000
40,000,000 4 0.25 15,000,000 4 0.99 40,000,000
35,000,000 5 0.48 35,000,000 5 0.66 35,000,000
40,000,000 4 0.90 40,000,000 4 0.74 40,000,000
15,000,000 4 0.54 35,000,000 4 0.49 35,000,000
40,000,000 4 0.17 15,000,000 4 0.29 15,000,000
40,000,000 5 0.83 40,000,000 5 0.68 35,000,000
40,000,000 4 0.71 40,000,000 4 0.31 35,000,000
40,000,000 4 0.24 15,000,000 4 0.14 15,000,000
35,000,000 5 0.61 35,000,000 5 0.96 40,000,000
35,000,000 4 0.98 40,000,000 4 0.49 35,000,000
35,000,000 4 0.95 40,000,000 4 0.71 40,000,000
15,000,000 4 0.40 35,000,000 4 0.87 40,000,000
35,000,000 4 0.65 35,000,000 4 0.64 35,000,000
15,000,000 4 0.69 35,000,000 4 0.51 35,000,000
35,000,000 5 0.97 40,000,000 5 0.38 35,000,000
15,000,000 4 0.06 15,000,000 4 0.62 35,000,000
35,000,000 4 0.38 35,000,000 4 0.20 15,000,000
15,000,000 4 0.94 40,000,000 4 0.47 35,000,000
35,000,000 4 0.66 35,000,000 4 0.30 15,000,000
15,000,000 4 0.48 35,000,000 4 0.63 35,000,000
15,000,000 5 0.84 40,000,000 5 0.14 15,000,000
40,000,000 5 0.47 35,000,000 5 0.31 35,000,000
40,000,000 3 0.04 15,000,000 3 0.87 40,000,000
15,000,000 4 0.27 15,000,000 4 0.85 40,000,000
40,000,000 5 0.87 40,000,000 5 0.99 40,000,000
15,000,000 5 0.87 40,000,000 5 0.56 35,000,000
40,000,000 5 0.53 35,000,000 5 0.73 40,000,000
35,000,000 4 0.87 40,000,000 4 0.08 15,000,000
35,000,000 4 0.07 15,000,000 4 0.94 40,000,000
15,000,000 3 0.93 40,000,000 3 0.86 40,000,000
35,000,000 4 0.80 40,000,000 4 0.03 15,000,000
35,000,000 4 0.86 40,000,000 4 0.58 35,000,000
40,000,000 4 0.83 40,000,000 4 0.80 40,000,000
35,000,000 3 0.17 15,000,000 3 0.25 15,000,000
15,000,000 3 0.56 35,000,000 3 0.15 15,000,000
35,000,000 4 0.73 40,000,000 4 0.88 40,000,000
40,000,000 5 0.82 40,000,000 5 0.98 40,000,000
40,000,000 4 0.49 35,000,000 4 0.98 40,000,000
15,000,000 4 0.84 40,000,000 4 0.47 35,000,000
40,000,000 4 0.03 15,000,000 4 0.01 15,000,000
15,000,000 4 0.33 35,000,000 4 0.67 35,000,000
40,000,000 4 0.30 15,000,000 4 0.54 35,000,000
40,000,000 3 0.03 15,000,000 3 0.53 35,000,000
35,000,000 3 0.58 35,000,000 3 0.00 15,000,000
15,000,000 4 0.34 35,000,000 4 0.66 35,000,000
35,000,000 4 0.70 40,000,000 4 0.84 40,000,000
35,000,000 5 0.72 40,000,000 5 0.47 35,000,000
15,000,000 4 0.07 15,000,000 4 0.47 35,000,000
15,000,000 4 0.17 15,000,000 4 0.77 40,000,000
35,000,000 5 0.46 35,000,000 5 0.22 15,000,000
15,000,000 3 0.88 40,000,000 3 0.08 15,000,000
35,000,000 5 0.05 15,000,000 5 0.35 35,000,000
15,000,000 4 0.10 15,000,000 4 0.51 35,000,000
15,000,000 4 0.04 15,000,000 4 0.56 35,000,000
15,000,000 4 0.05 15,000,000 4 0.95 40,000,000
40,000,000 4 0.11 15,000,000 4 0.98 40,000,000
35,000,000 4 0.80 40,000,000 4 0.26 15,000,000
35,000,000 4 0.93 40,000,000 4 0.43 35,000,000
40,000,000 4 0.48 35,000,000 4 0.53 35,000,000
15,000,000 5 0.39 35,000,000 5 0.09 15,000,000
40,000,000 4 0.71 40,000,000 4 0.09 15,000,000
35,000,000 3 0.02 15,000,000 3 0.56 35,000,000
35,000,000 4 0.46 35,000,000 4 0.58 35,000,000
35,000,000 4 0.58 35,000,000 4 0.48 35,000,000
35,000,000 4 0.82 40,000,000 4 0.20 15,000,000
35,000,000 4 0.94 40,000,000 4 0.67 35,000,000
15,000,000 5 0.57 35,000,000 5 0.97 40,000,000
35,000,000 4 0.56 35,000,000 4 0.42 35,000,000
35,000,000 4 0.71 40,000,000 4 0.08 15,000,000
35,000,000 4 0.65 35,000,000 4 0.71 40,000,000
15,000,000 5 0.99 40,000,000 5 0.89 40,000,000
35,000,000 3 0.51 35,000,000 3 0.80 40,000,000
15,000,000 4 0.07 15,000,000 4 0.60 35,000,000
40,000,000 5 0.60 35,000,000 5 0.51 35,000,000
40,000,000 5 0.26 15,000,000 5 0.33 35,000,000
35,000,000 5 0.02 15,000,000 5 0.04 15,000,000
15,000,000 4 0.21 15,000,000 4 0.22 15,000,000
15,000,000 5 0.72 40,000,000 5 0.21 15,000,000
40,000,000 4 0.81 40,000,000 4 0.45 35,000,000
35,000,000 5 0.60 35,000,000 5 0.79 40,000,000
15,000,000 3 0.06 15,000,000 3 0.72 40,000,000
40,000,000 4 0.69 35,000,000 4 0.34 35,000,000
15,000,000 5 0.87 40,000,000 5 0.07 15,000,000
15,000,000 4 0.20 15,000,000 4 0.60 35,000,000
15,000,000 3 0.33 35,000,000 3 0.35 35,000,000
15,000,000 4 0.87 40,000,000 4 0.26 15,000,000
35,000,000 3 0.31 35,000,000 3 0.00 15,000,000
35,000,000 4 0.78 40,000,000 4 0.38 35,000,000
40,000,000 4 0.43 35,000,000 4 0.95 40,000,000
35,000,000 4 0.17 15,000,000 4 0.65 35,000,000
40,000,000 3 0.91 40,000,000 3 0.98 40,000,000
35,000,000 3 0.64 35,000,000 3 0.81 40,000,000
35,000,000 4 0.85 40,000,000 4 0.13 15,000,000
35,000,000 5 0.60 35,000,000 5 0.59 35,000,000
40,000,000 4 0.67 35,000,000 4 0.61 35,000,000
40,000,000 5 0.54 35,000,000 5 0.95 40,000,000
35,000,000 4 0.11 15,000,000 4 0.83 40,000,000
40,000,000 4 0.86 40,000,000 4 0.49 35,000,000
35,000,000 4 0.87 40,000,000 4 0.82 40,000,000
40,000,000 4 0.56 35,000,000 4 0.49 35,000,000
40,000,000 5 0.19 15,000,000 5 0.71 40,000,000
15,000,000 4 0.21 15,000,000 4 0.78 40,000,000
15,000,000 4 0.48 35,000,000 4 0.12 15,000,000
40,000,000 4 0.40 35,000,000 4 0.37 35,000,000
15,000,000 3 0.42 35,000,000 3 0.24 15,000,000
35,000,000 5 0.76 40,000,000 5 0.64 35,000,000
35,000,000 3 0.86 40,000,000 3 0.57 35,000,000
15,000,000 4 0.91 40,000,000 4 0.07 15,000,000
15,000,000 4 0.40 35,000,000 4 0.63 35,000,000
35,000,000 4 0.05 15,000,000 4 0.00 15,000,000
35,000,000 4 0.85 40,000,000 4 0.48 35,000,000
35,000,000 4 0.16 15,000,000 4 0.14 15,000,000
15,000,000 4 0.21 15,000,000 4 0.35 35,000,000
15,000,000 4 0.14 15,000,000 4 0.87 40,000,000
35,000,000 4 0.60 35,000,000 4 0.83 40,000,000
35,000,000 4 0.68 35,000,000 4 0.52 35,000,000
35,000,000 5 0.44 35,000,000 5 0.26 15,000,000
35,000,000 4 0.73 40,000,000 4 0.69 35,000,000
15,000,000 5 0.88 40,000,000 5 0.76 40,000,000
40,000,000 5 0.49 35,000,000 5 0.36 35,000,000
35,000,000 5 0.08 15,000,000 5 0.45 35,000,000
15,000,000 5 0.06 15,000,000 5 0.65 35,000,000
40,000,000 4 0.94 40,000,000 4 0.98 40,000,000
15,000,000 4 0.98 40,000,000 4 0.34 35,000,000
35,000,000 5 0.13 15,000,000 5 0.67 35,000,000
40,000,000 3 0.89 40,000,000 3 0.36 35,000,000
40,000,000 4 0.06 15,000,000 4 0.86 40,000,000
40,000,000 4 0.58 35,000,000 4 0.57 35,000,000
35,000,000 4 0.28 15,000,000 4 0.75 40,000,000
15,000,000 4 0.94 40,000,000 4 0.09 15,000,000
35,000,000 4 0.78 40,000,000 4 0.28 15,000,000
40,000,000 4 0.56 35,000,000 4 0.50 35,000,000
15,000,000 4 0.37 35,000,000 4 0.12 15,000,000
15,000,000 4 0.64 35,000,000 4 0.31 35,000,000
40,000,000 4 0.52 35,000,000 4 0.96 40,000,000
35,000,000 5 0.35 35,000,000 5 0.61 35,000,000
40,000,000 4 0.80 40,000,000 4 0.99 40,000,000
40,000,000 3 0.06 15,000,000 3 0.04 15,000,000
40,000,000 4 0.61 35,000,000 4 0.15 15,000,000
40,000,000 4 0.38 35,000,000 4 0.41 35,000,000
15,000,000 4 0.81 40,000,000 4 0.66 35,000,000
40,000,000 4 0.45 35,000,000 4 0.57 35,000,000
15,000,000 5 0.29 15,000,000 5 0.11 15,000,000
35,000,000 4 0.61 35,000,000 4 0.64 35,000,000
35,000,000 4 0.38 35,000,000 4 0.01 15,000,000
35,000,000 4 0.69 35,000,000 4 0.13 15,000,000
40,000,000 4 0.84 40,000,000 4 0.05 15,000,000
40,000,000 4 0.26 15,000,000 4 0.19 15,000,000
15,000,000 4 0.49 35,000,000 4 0.83 40,000,000
15,000,000 5 0.65 35,000,000 5 0.78 40,000,000
35,000,000 4 0.42 35,000,000 4 0.69 35,000,000
35,000,000 4 0.64 35,000,000 4 0.41 35,000,000
35,000,000 4 0.20 15,000,000 4 0.78 40,000,000
15,000,000 4 0.20 15,000,000 4 0.95 40,000,000
40,000,000 5 0.90 40,000,000 5 0.60 35,000,000
15,000,000 5 0.20 15,000,000 5 0.91 40,000,000
35,000,000 4 0.04 15,000,000 4 0.89 40,000,000
35,000,000 3 0.49 35,000,000 3 0.68 35,000,000
40,000,000 4 0.19 15,000,000 4 0.50 35,000,000
35,000,000 4 0.16 15,000,000 4 0.88 40,000,000
35,000,000 4 0.36 35,000,000 4 0.60 35,000,000
35,000,000 4 0.06 15,000,000 4 0.41 35,000,000
15,000,000 4 0.59 35,000,000 4 0.39 35,000,000
35,000,000 5 0.85 40,000,000 5 0.17 15,000,000
35,000,000 4 0.29 15,000,000 4 0.52 35,000,000
35,000,000 4 0.15 15,000,000 4 0.30 15,000,000
40,000,000 4 0.60 35,000,000 4 0.08 15,000,000
35,000,000 5 0.26 15,000,000 5 0.86 40,000,000
35,000,000 5 0.69 35,000,000 5 0.39 35,000,000
35,000,000 5 0.32 35,000,000 5 0.74 40,000,000
40,000,000 4 0.14 15,000,000 4 0.65 35,000,000
35,000,000 4 0.82 40,000,000 4 0.22 15,000,000
35,000,000 5 0.81 40,000,000 5 0.92 40,000,000
40,000,000 4 0.82 40,000,000 4 0.22 15,000,000
35,000,000 5 0.81 40,000,000 5 0.23 15,000,000
35,000,000 4 0.73 40,000,000 4 0.47 35,000,000
35,000,000 5 0.20 15,000,000 5 0.02 15,000,000
40,000,000 4 0.72 40,000,000 4 0.73 40,000,000
40,000,000 4 0.10 15,000,000 4 0.61 35,000,000
40,000,000 5 0.28 15,000,000 5 0.90 40,000,000
35,000,000 3 0.43 35,000,000 3 0.59 35,000,000
35,000,000 5 0.93 40,000,000 5 0.57 35,000,000
35,000,000 5 0.13 15,000,000 5 0.39 35,000,000
40,000,000 4 0.60 35,000,000 4 0.19 15,000,000
15,000,000 5 0.05 15,000,000 5 0.50 35,000,000
35,000,000 4 0.24 15,000,000 4 0.06 15,000,000
40,000,000 4 0.96 40,000,000 4 0.95 40,000,000
35,000,000 4 0.35 35,000,000 4 0.76 40,000,000
40,000,000 4 0.16 15,000,000 4 0.31 35,000,000
35,000,000 4 0.28 15,000,000 4 0.36 35,000,000
15,000,000 3 0.29 15,000,000 3 0.96 40,000,000
35,000,000 4 0.83 40,000,000 4 0.05 15,000,000
40,000,000 4 0.65 35,000,000 4 0.29 15,000,000
15,000,000 4 0.46 35,000,000 4 0.18 15,000,000
35,000,000 4 0.32 35,000,000 4 0.81 40,000,000
15,000,000 5 0.61 35,000,000 5 0.63 35,000,000
35,000,000 5 0.32 35,000,000 5 0.19 15,000,000
35,000,000 4 0.85 40,000,000 4 0.81 40,000,000
15,000,000 4 0.92 40,000,000 4 0.25 15,000,000
40,000,000 4 0.50 35,000,000 4 0.38 35,000,000
15,000,000 4 0.20 15,000,000 4 0.39 35,000,000
15,000,000 4 0.12 15,000,000 4 0.89 40,000,000
35,000,000 5 0.52 35,000,000 5 0.61 35,000,000
35,000,000 4 0.98 40,000,000 4 0.33 35,000,000
15,000,000 4 0.26 15,000,000 4 0.64 35,000,000
40,000,000 5 0.16 15,000,000 5 0.01 15,000,000
15,000,000 4 0.10 15,000,000 4 0.70 35,000,000
35,000,000 4 0.41 35,000,000 4 0.61 35,000,000
35,000,000 4 0.57 35,000,000 4 0.87 40,000,000
35,000,000 4 0.49 35,000,000 4 0.36 35,000,000
15,000,000 4 0.55 35,000,000 4 0.77 40,000,000
35,000,000 4 0.67 35,000,000 4 0.16 15,000,000
35,000,000 5 0.24 15,000,000 5 0.46 35,000,000
15,000,000 4 0.14 15,000,000 4 0.64 35,000,000
35,000,000 4 0.02 15,000,000 4 0.93 40,000,000
40,000,000 4 0.33 35,000,000 4 0.97 40,000,000
35,000,000 5 0.60 35,000,000 5 0.35 35,000,000
15,000,000 4 0.65 35,000,000 4 0.71 40,000,000
15,000,000 4 0.59 35,000,000 4 0.20 15,000,000
35,000,000 4 0.68 35,000,000 4 0.72 40,000,000
35,000,000 4 0.00 15,000,000 4 0.65 35,000,000
35,000,000 4 0.63 35,000,000 4 0.51 35,000,000
40,000,000 5 0.67 35,000,000 5 0.45 35,000,000
35,000,000 5 0.27 15,000,000 5 0.26 15,000,000
15,000,000 4 0.74 40,000,000 4 0.61 35,000,000
40,000,000 5 0.23 15,000,000 5 0.04 15,000,000
15,000,000 4 0.11 15,000,000 4 0.83 40,000,000
40,000,000 3 0.93 40,000,000 3 0.92 40,000,000
35,000,000 4 0.62 35,000,000 4 0.19 15,000,000
40,000,000 4 0.48 35,000,000 4 0.99 40,000,000
35,000,000 5 0.34 35,000,000 5 0.73 40,000,000
40,000,000 3 0.13 15,000,000 3 0.58 35,000,000
35,000,000 4 0.12 15,000,000 4 0.95 40,000,000
35,000,000 5 0.86 40,000,000 5 0.69 35,000,000
15,000,000 3 0.45 35,000,000 3 0.43 35,000,000
35,000,000 4 0.12 15,000,000 4 0.46 35,000,000
15,000,000 5 0.10 15,000,000 5 0.10 15,000,000
40,000,000 5 0.77 40,000,000 5 0.71 40,000,000
15,000,000 4 0.98 40,000,000 4 0.08 15,000,000
40,000,000 4 0.13 15,000,000 4 0.85 40,000,000
35,000,000 4 0.57 35,000,000 4 0.73 40,000,000
15,000,000 3 0.05 15,000,000 3 0.40 35,000,000
15,000,000 4 0.72 40,000,000 4 0.29 15,000,000
40,000,000 5 0.45 35,000,000 5 0.14 15,000,000
40,000,000 4 0.52 35,000,000 4 0.89 40,000,000
35,000,000 3 0.71 40,000,000 3 0.71 40,000,000
40,000,000 5 0.40 35,000,000 5 0.13 15,000,000
15,000,000 5 0.04 15,000,000 5 0.24 15,000,000
35,000,000 3 0.91 40,000,000 3 0.73 40,000,000
15,000,000 5 0.50 35,000,000 5 0.70 35,000,000
35,000,000 5 0.05 15,000,000 5 0.91 40,000,000
35,000,000 4 0.08 15,000,000 4 0.75 40,000,000
35,000,000 4 0.68 35,000,000 4 0.78 40,000,000
40,000,000 4 0.62 35,000,000 4 0.74 40,000,000
35,000,000 5 0.53 35,000,000 5 0.45 35,000,000
40,000,000 3 0.52 35,000,000 3 0.99 40,000,000
35,000,000 5 0.63 35,000,000 5 0.93 40,000,000
35,000,000 5 0.86 40,000,000 5 0.54 35,000,000
35,000,000 5 0.56 35,000,000 5 0.67 35,000,000
15,000,000 4 0.75 40,000,000 4 0.58 35,000,000
15,000,000 4 0.44 35,000,000 4 0.77 40,000,000
40,000,000 4 0.07 15,000,000 4 0.61 35,000,000
40,000,000 5 0.80 40,000,000 5 0.73 40,000,000
15,000,000 4 0.15 15,000,000 4 0.10 15,000,000
35,000,000 4 0.69 35,000,000 4 0.05 15,000,000
15,000,000 4 0.94 40,000,000 4 0.46 35,000,000
15,000,000 4 0.01 15,000,000 4 0.15 15,000,000
15,000,000 4 0.27 15,000,000 4 0.80 40,000,000
35,000,000 3 0.48 35,000,000 3 0.78 40,000,000
35,000,000 4 0.41 35,000,000 4 0.42 35,000,000
15,000,000 4 0.16 15,000,000 4 0.73 40,000,000
40,000,000 5 0.71 40,000,000 5 0.58 35,000,000
35,000,000 4 0.21 15,000,000 4 0.20 15,000,000
40,000,000 4 0.24 15,000,000 4 0.62 35,000,000
15,000,000 4 0.12 15,000,000 4 0.79 40,000,000
 Año5 .=SI(C38=3;VNA($H$17;E38;H38;K38)-$H$16;SI(C38=4;VNA($H$17;E38;H38;K3
Duración Aleatorios F. Caja F. de Caja VAN Promedio
4 0.88 40,000,000 36,568,899 36,568,899 .=PROMEDIO($R$38:R38)
5 0.48 35,000,000 78,564,808 57,566,853
4 0.68 35,000,000 41,834,991 52,322,899
3 0.13 15,000,000 -9,904,821 36,765,969
 4 0.32 35,000,000 59,203,292 41,253,434

Año5 .=SI(C38=3;VNA($H$17;E38;H38;K38)-$H$16;SI(C38=4;VNA($H$17;E38;H38;K3
Duración Aleatorios F. Caja F. de Caja VAN Promedio
4 0.02 15,000,000 36,568,899 36,568,899 .=PROMEDIO($R$46:R46)
4 0.22 15,000,000 43,094,420 39,831,659
3 0.35 35,000,000 26,763,033 35,475,450
4 0.66 35,000,000 68,801,883 43,807,058 G
4 0.79 40,000,000 56,860,754 46,417,798 70,000,000
5 0.15 15,000,000 50,787,727 47,146,119
4 0.68 35,000,000 71,278,696 50,593,630 60,000,000

4 0.47 35,000,000 66,354,314 52,563,716 50,000,000

4 0.66 35,000,000 75,728,679 55,137,600
4 0.29 15,000,000 75,728,679 57,196,708 40,000,000

4 0.62 35,000,000 59,203,292 57,379,125 30,000,000

4 0.01 15,000,000 62,156,217 57,777,216
3 0.90 40,000,000 47,753,515 57,006,162 20,000,000

4 0.85 40,000,000 75,728,679 58,343,485 10,000,000

4 0.53 35,000,000 60,153,804 58,464,173
-
3 0.78 40,000,000 -9,904,821 54,191,111 1 16 31 46 6
4 0.85 40,000,000 21,778,926 52,284,511
4 0.08 15,000,000 62,393,845 52,846,141
4 0.83 40,000,000 40,766,995 52,210,397
3 0.00 15,000,000 24,687,494 50,834,251
4 0.45 35,000,000 67,613,742 51,633,275
4 0.67 35,000,000 42,353,876 51,211,484
4 0.71 40,000,000 56,371,240 51,435,821
4 0.19 15,000,000 62,896,761 51,913,360
5 0.44 35,000,000 78,564,808 52,979,418
4 0.49 35,000,000 65,019,319 53,442,491
4 0.76 40,000,000 53,478,768 53,443,835
4 0.44 35,000,000 43,094,420 53,074,213
5 0.71 40,000,000 90,949,177 54,380,246
4 0.45 35,000,000 79,926,775 55,231,797
4 0.71 40,000,000 43,094,420 54,840,269
5 0.89 40,000,000 109,846,473 56,559,213
4 0.23 15,000,000 56,608,868 56,560,717
4 0.02 15,000,000 79,437,261 57,233,557
4 0.85 40,000,000 57,439,236 57,239,433
4 0.34 35,000,000 52,410,772 57,105,304
4 0.15 15,000,000 34,610,843 56,497,346
5 0.10 15,000,000 86,685,665 57,291,775
4 0.31 35,000,000 41,403,363 56,884,380
4 0.37 35,000,000 60,153,804 56,966,116
4 0.35 35,000,000 38,808,940 56,523,258
4 0.34 35,000,000 60,153,804 56,609,699
4 0.29 15,000,000 53,478,768 56,536,887
5 0.81 40,000,000 71,725,318 56,882,078
5 0.81 40,000,000 86,751,081 57,545,834
3 0.91 40,000,000 12,345,090 56,563,209
4 0.04 15,000,000 21,778,926 55,823,118
5 0.23 15,000,000 95,096,116 56,641,305
5 0.66 35,000,000 83,830,900 57,196,195
5 0.84 40,000,000 90,711,549 57,866,502
4 0.46 35,000,000 64,351,901 57,993,667
4 0.75 40,000,000 63,163,760 58,093,092
3 0.89 40,000,000 29,953,586 57,562,158
4 0.01 15,000,000 59,634,920 57,600,542
4 0.25 15,000,000 75,476,793 57,925,565
4 0.26 15,000,000 65,019,319 58,052,239
3 0.68 35,000,000 26,763,033 57,503,306
3 0.93 40,000,000 25,755,489 56,955,930
4 0.75 40,000,000 60,569,337 57,017,174
5 0.00 15,000,000 99,813,097 57,730,439
4 0.71 40,000,000 79,689,147 58,090,418
4 0.09 15,000,000 62,393,845 58,159,828
4 0.93 40,000,000 47,811,401 57,995,567
4 0.73 40,000,000 53,478,768 57,924,992
4 0.45 35,000,000 40,068,368 57,650,275
3 0.26 15,000,000 12,345,090 56,963,833
3 0.59 35,000,000 48,272,399 56,834,110
4 0.96 40,000,000 58,195,749 56,854,134
4 0.94 40,000,000 60,569,337 56,907,978
5 0.88 40,000,000 105,367,120 57,600,251
4 0.57 35,000,000 36,686,382 57,305,689
4 0.07 15,000,000 45,363,831 57,139,830
5 0.54 35,000,000 81,590,859 57,474,776
3 0.46 35,000,000 29,953,586 57,102,868
5 0.37 35,000,000 80,640,347 57,416,701
4 0.80 40,000,000 41,403,363 57,205,999
4 0.08 15,000,000 41,403,363 57,000,770
4 0.89 40,000,000 40,646,850 56,791,105
4 0.52 35,000,000 67,613,742 56,928,100
4 0.15 15,000,000 40,766,995 56,726,086
4 0.27 15,000,000 80,193,774 57,015,811
4 0.63 35,000,000 75,728,679 57,244,016
5 0.06 15,000,000 29,977,842 56,915,508
4 0.67 35,000,000 45,216,977 56,776,240
3 0.11 15,000,000 7,895,108 56,201,168
4 0.16 15,000,000 71,278,696 56,376,488
4 0.49 35,000,000 71,278,696 56,547,778
4 0.95 40,000,000 59,634,920 56,582,859
4 0.98 40,000,000 56,608,868 56,583,151
5 0.95 40,000,000 68,461,638 56,715,134
4 0.41 35,000,000 71,278,696 56,875,173
4 0.15 15,000,000 40,766,995 56,700,085
4 0.13 15,000,000 75,239,165 56,899,430
5 0.84 40,000,000 91,527,659 57,267,815
3 0.04 15,000,000 43,555,418 57,123,474
4 0.01 15,000,000 17,818,457 56,714,047
5 0.14 15,000,000 68,069,627 56,831,114
5 0.79 40,000,000 69,958,695 56,965,069
5 0.74 40,000,000 49,666,840 56,891,350
4 0.13 15,000,000 1,976,584 56,342,202
5 0.76 40,000,000 71,725,318 56,494,510
4 0.20 15,000,000 61,058,851 56,539,259
5 0.23 15,000,000 67,580,113 56,646,452
3 0.44 35,000,000 13,680,085 56,233,313
4 0.52 35,000,000 80,445,660 56,463,907
5 0.50 35,000,000 67,989,027 56,572,635
4 0.89 40,000,000 36,686,382 56,386,782
3 0.46 35,000,000 6,887,565 55,928,456
4 0.43 35,000,000 41,834,991 55,799,158
3 0.65 35,000,000 24,687,494 55,516,325
4 0.33 35,000,000 80,193,774 55,738,644
4 0.24 15,000,000 60,821,222 55,784,024
4 0.23 15,000,000 59,203,292 55,814,283
3 0.33 35,000,000 52,203,497 55,782,610
3 0.26 15,000,000 43,555,418 55,676,286
4 0.93 40,000,000 59,634,920 55,710,412
5 0.28 15,000,000 82,487,569 55,939,277
4 0.57 35,000,000 56,860,754 55,947,086
5 0.30 35,000,000 110,560,164 56,406,019
4 0.24 15,000,000 58,446,779 56,423,026
4 0.44 35,000,000 79,926,775 56,617,272
4 0.59 35,000,000 79,437,261 56,804,321
4 0.07 15,000,000 56,860,754 56,804,780
5 0.16 15,000,000 78,822,615 56,982,343
4 0.42 35,000,000 21,778,926 56,700,715
4 0.72 40,000,000 18,768,970 56,399,670
4 0.05 15,000,000 56,860,754 56,403,300
3 0.72 40,000,000 25,755,489 56,163,864
5 0.82 40,000,000 105,367,120 56,545,285
3 0.25 15,000,000 28,885,590 56,332,518
4 0.62 35,000,000 46,551,972 56,257,857
4 0.35 35,000,000 53,478,768 56,236,804
4 0.40 35,000,000 38,644,438 56,104,530
4 0.92 40,000,000 75,476,793 56,249,099
4 0.03 15,000,000 43,361,419 56,153,635
4 0.22 15,000,000 17,818,457 55,871,759
4 0.28 15,000,000 40,646,850 55,760,628
4 0.72 40,000,000 79,956,146 55,935,958
4 0.63 35,000,000 71,278,696 56,046,337
5 1.00 40,000,000 66,459,226 56,120,715
4 0.11 15,000,000 80,193,774 56,291,446
5 0.29 15,000,000 53,978,280 56,275,156
5 0.47 35,000,000 83,014,790 56,462,147
5 0.45 35,000,000 80,640,347 56,630,051
5 0.65 35,000,000 67,557,399 56,705,412
4 0.60 35,000,000 83,887,243 56,891,589
4 0.31 35,000,000 62,393,845 56,929,019
5 0.77 40,000,000 84,376,638 57,114,476
3 0.53 35,000,000 56,920,478 57,113,174
4 0.21 15,000,000 67,613,742 57,183,178
4 0.20 15,000,000 75,728,679 57,305,996
4 0.72 40,000,000 63,163,760 57,344,534
4 0.83 40,000,000 41,834,991 57,243,164
4 0.91 40,000,000 64,351,901 57,289,325
4 0.44 35,000,000 56,860,754 57,286,560
4 0.40 35,000,000 37,636,894 57,160,600
4 0.14 15,000,000 58,195,749 57,167,194
4 0.43 35,000,000 79,689,147 57,309,738
5 0.73 40,000,000 105,886,004 57,615,249
4 0.84 40,000,000 65,019,319 57,661,524
3 0.08 15,000,000 31,213,015 57,497,248
4 0.84 40,000,000 41,018,881 57,395,529
4 0.33 35,000,000 56,860,754 57,392,248
4 0.20 15,000,000 38,808,940 57,278,936
4 0.61 35,000,000 80,445,660 57,419,340
5 0.90 40,000,000 31,866,911 57,265,410
4 0.27 15,000,000 71,278,696 57,349,322
4 0.29 15,000,000 55,436,823 57,337,938
4 0.03 15,000,000 60,153,804 57,354,600
4 0.64 35,000,000 64,084,902 57,394,190
4 0.53 35,000,000 43,094,420 57,310,565
4 0.26 15,000,000 57,439,236 57,311,313
5 0.28 15,000,000 73,365,090 57,404,110
4 0.09 15,000,000 75,995,678 57,510,958
4 0.14 15,000,000 75,995,678 57,616,585
4 0.15 15,000,000 39,578,855 57,514,098
4 0.69 35,000,000 40,646,850 57,418,803
5 0.29 15,000,000 72,267,723 57,502,223
5 0.23 15,000,000 56,572,704 57,497,031
4 0.05 15,000,000 58,446,779 57,502,307
3 0.27 15,000,000 48,272,399 57,451,313
4 0.08 15,000,000 40,068,368 57,355,802
4 0.13 15,000,000 58,446,779 57,361,764
4 0.77 40,000,000 71,278,696 57,437,399
4 0.91 40,000,000 59,203,292 57,446,945
4 0.80 40,000,000 53,478,768 57,425,611
5 0.95 40,000,000 94,242,228 57,622,491
4 0.83 40,000,000 54,486,311 57,605,809
4 0.86 40,000,000 19,776,513 57,405,654
4 0.80 40,000,000 59,886,805 57,418,713
5 0.03 15,000,000 69,655,652 57,482,780
5 0.74 40,000,000 105,886,004 57,734,881
5 0.20 15,000,000 91,165,018 57,908,094
4 0.71 40,000,000 63,653,274 57,937,708
4 0.32 35,000,000 40,766,995 57,849,653
5 0.67 35,000,000 86,723,373 57,996,968
4 0.88 40,000,000 64,084,902 58,027,871
5 0.52 35,000,000 85,788,956 58,168,079
4 0.48 35,000,000 56,608,868 58,160,243
5 0.82 40,000,000 68,534,764 58,212,116
4 0.75 40,000,000 65,019,319 58,245,983
4 0.38 35,000,000 40,068,368 58,155,995
5 0.28 15,000,000 74,105,634 58,234,564
3 0.45 35,000,000 24,687,494 58,070,118
5 0.60 35,000,000 106,347,810 58,305,619
5 0.53 35,000,000 85,357,328 58,436,938
4 0.19 15,000,000 59,886,805 58,443,942
5 0.36 35,000,000 62,840,418 58,465,079
4 0.75 40,000,000 43,361,419 58,392,812
4 0.32 35,000,000 65,019,319 58,424,367
4 0.99 40,000,000 56,371,240 58,414,637
4 0.05 15,000,000 40,068,368 58,328,098
4 0.54 35,000,000 54,486,311 58,310,061
3 0.30 35,000,000 8,963,104 58,079,468
4 0.94 40,000,000 59,634,920 58,086,703
4 0.93 40,000,000 41,018,881 58,007,685
4 0.74 40,000,000 42,353,876 57,935,548
4 0.63 35,000,000 79,956,146 58,036,560
5 0.85 40,000,000 83,369,095 58,152,233
5 0.15 15,000,000 66,645,696 58,190,840
4 0.65 35,000,000 79,437,261 58,286,978
4 0.85 40,000,000 22,967,066 58,127,879
4 0.26 15,000,000 75,728,679 58,206,806
4 0.70 35,000,000 36,686,382 58,110,733
4 0.09 15,000,000 45,363,831 58,054,080
5 0.24 15,000,000 87,204,550 58,183,064
4 0.22 15,000,000 56,608,868 58,176,130
4 0.44 35,000,000 41,403,363 58,102,565
5 0.50 35,000,000 73,965,437 58,171,835
4 0.28 15,000,000 41,403,363 58,098,929
4 0.60 35,000,000 75,995,678 58,176,404
4 0.19 15,000,000 56,371,240 58,168,623
4 0.94 40,000,000 75,995,678 58,245,134
4 0.91 40,000,000 38,571,311 58,161,058
4 0.38 35,000,000 55,436,823 58,149,465
5 0.73 40,000,000 65,508,713 58,180,648
4 0.98 40,000,000 41,403,363 58,109,858
4 0.49 35,000,000 58,446,779 58,111,274
4 0.96 40,000,000 79,689,147 58,201,558
5 0.49 35,000,000 97,432,732 58,365,021
4 0.21 15,000,000 38,571,311 58,282,889
4 0.61 35,000,000 42,353,876 58,217,067
4 0.32 35,000,000 79,956,146 58,306,528
4 0.61 35,000,000 54,486,311 58,290,872
4 1.00 40,000,000 75,995,678 58,363,136
5 0.93 40,000,000 110,335,987 58,574,408
5 0.54 35,000,000 45,930,549 58,523,218
4 0.70 40,000,000 57,676,864 58,519,805
5 0.72 40,000,000 72,984,747 58,577,898
4 0.38 35,000,000 21,778,926 58,430,702
3 0.85 40,000,000 52,203,497 58,405,892
4 0.80 40,000,000 36,568,899 58,319,237
4 0.96 40,000,000 84,406,128 58,422,348
5 0.59 35,000,000 101,393,201 58,591,524
3 0.26 15,000,000 31,213,015 58,484,158
4 0.72 40,000,000 63,163,760 58,502,437
5 0.30 15,000,000 67,817,741 58,538,684
3 0.46 35,000,000 6,887,565 58,338,485
4 0.58 35,000,000 54,486,311 58,323,612
5 0.05 15,000,000 13,185,457 58,150,004
5 0.82 40,000,000 94,909,646 58,290,845
4 0.67 35,000,000 22,967,066 58,156,022
4 0.10 15,000,000 62,896,761 58,174,047
4 0.02 15,000,000 56,371,240 58,167,219
3 0.46 35,000,000 8,963,104 57,981,543
4 0.12 15,000,000 46,551,972 57,938,574
 5 0.17 15,000,000 71,095,678 57,987,852
4 0.54 35,000,000 84,406,128 58,086,428
3 0.94 40,000,000 47,753,515 58,048,015
5 0.37 35,000,000 86,040,841 58,151,692
5 0.45 35,000,000 51,715,526 58,127,943
3 0.26 15,000,000 28,885,590 58,020,434
5 0.53 35,000,000 79,632,804 58,099,600
5 0.52 35,000,000 84,600,815 58,196,320
4 0.62 35,000,000 63,163,760 58,214,383
4 0.32 35,000,000 79,956,146 58,293,158
4 0.73 40,000,000 79,689,147 58,370,400
5 0.81 40,000,000 82,301,099 58,456,481
3 0.73 40,000,000 52,722,382 58,435,929
5 0.99 40,000,000 105,129,492 58,602,692
5 0.42 35,000,000 101,630,829 58,755,817
5 0.16 15,000,000 82,487,569 58,839,972
4 0.39 35,000,000 38,808,940 58,769,191
4 0.62 35,000,000 38,571,311 58,698,072
4 0.84 40,000,000 58,936,293 58,698,908
5 0.65 35,000,000 114,758,261 58,894,919
4 0.76 40,000,000 20,844,509 58,762,339
4 0.48 35,000,000 36,568,899 58,685,279
4 0.50 35,000,000 38,808,940 58,616,503
4 0.89 40,000,000 1,976,584 58,421,193
4 0.30 35,000,000 21,778,926 58,295,274
3 0.65 35,000,000 24,687,494 58,180,179
4 0.81 40,000,000 75,995,678 58,240,983
4 0.58 35,000,000 21,778,926 58,116,962
5 0.63 35,000,000 87,212,887 58,215,592
4 0.60 35,000,000 38,644,438 58,149,474
4 0.13 15,000,000 63,653,274 58,168,005
4 0.32 35,000,000 40,646,850 58,109,209

Media 58,109,209 VAN

Intervalo de confianza 898,924.79

.=INTERVALO.CONFIANZA.NORM(0,5;R349;300) Media 58391124.9
Deviación estandar 23,083,870.62 Error típico 1302813
.=DESVEST.M(R46:R343) Mediana 58446779.1
REPUESTA Moda 88604224.5
Superior 59,008,133.90 Desviación es 22490039.4
Inferior 57,210,284.32 Varianza de l 5.058E+14
Curtosis 0.14934441
Coeficiente d-0.21291666
Rango 124438904
Mínimo -9904820.76
Máximo 114534083
Suma 1.7401E+10
Cuenta 298
Mayor (1) 114534083
Menor(1) -9904820.76
Nivel de conf 2563914.52
VNA($H$17;E38;H38;K38;N38)-$H$16;SI(C38=5;VNA($H$17;E38;H38;K38;N38;Q38)-$H$16;"")))
VNA($H$17;E38;H38;K38;N38)-$H$16;SI(C38=5;VNA($H$17;E38;H38;K38;N38;Q38)-$H$16;"")))

A mayores simulaciones mas estable es el modelo

Grafico de Estabilización
70,000,000

60,000,000

50,000,000

40,000,000

30,000,000

20,000,000

10,000,000

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