Datos teniendo en cuenta Los Productos Alimenticios

Pesimista Real Optimista

$25,000,000 $ 50,000,000 $75,000,000

Municipio beneficiado Inversion inicial Inversion adicional

Paujil $500,000,000.00 $300,000,000.00
Puerto Rico $ 350,000,000 $100.000.000 mes 2 y 5
Doncello $ 200,000,000
Morelia $ 200,000,000
TOTAL INVERSION $ 1,250,000,000 $ 1,300,000,000

CONCEPTO MES 0 MES 1

TOTLA INGRESOS $ 25,000,000
(-)TOTAL COSTOS
(-)TOTAL GASTOS
(=) UTILIDAD OPERACIONAL UAII $ 25,000,000
INTERES $ -
(=) UTILIDAD ANTES DE IMPUESTOS $ 25,000,000
IMPUESTO DE RENTA
(=) UTILIDAD NETA $ 25,000,000
(+) RETORNO A LA INVERSION $ 36,111,111
(=) FLUJO DE OPERACIÓN $ 61,111,111
(-) FLUJO DE INVERSIÓN -$ 1,300,000,000
(+) FLUJO DE FINANCCIACIÓN
(=) FLUJO DE EVALUACIÓN -$ 1,300,000,000 $ 61,111,111

TIO PROYECTO EA 19.62%

PERIODO 36
TIO PROYECTO MENSUAL 1.50%

VPN $ 515,875,902
TIR 3.50%
Costo/Beneficio 1.40

a. ¿Qué municipios saldrían beneficiados?

b. Con una certeza del 75% cuál es el valor esperado del proyecto.
c. Con una certeza del 50% cuál es el valor esperado del proyecto.
d. Identificar En qué momento el VAN del proyecto se hace cero.
AUMENTO DE 5000000

MES 2 MES 3 MES 4 MES 5

$ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000

$ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000

$ - $ - $ - $ -
$ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000

$ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000

$ 36,111,111 $ 36,111,111 $ 36,111,111 $ 36,111,111
$ 61,111,111 $ 61,111,111 $ 61,111,111 $ 61,111,111
-$300,000,000.00 $ 8,823,529 $ 8,823,529 $ 8,823,529
$ 100,000,000 $ 100,000,000
-$ 138,888,889 $ 69,934,641 $ 69,934,641 $ 169,934,641

Pajuil,Puerto Rico, Doncello , morelia

$1,203,689,817.74
$1,209,548,049.71
-$0.00
 MES 6 MES 7 MES 8 MES 9 MES 10 MES 11 MES 12
$ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000

$ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000

$ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ -
$ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000

$ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000

$ 36,111,111 $ 36,111,111 $ 36,111,111 $ 36,111,111 $ 36,111,111 $ 36,111,111 $ 36,111,111
$ 61,111,111 $ 61,111,111 $ 61,111,111 $ 61,111,111 $ 61,111,111 $ 61,111,111 $ 61,111,111
$ 8,823,529 $ 8,823,529 $ 8,823,529 $ 8,823,529 $ 8,823,529 $ 8,823,529 $ 8,823,529

$ 69,934,641 $ 69,934,641 $ 69,934,641 $ 69,934,641 $ 69,934,641 $ 69,934,641 $ 69,934,641

 MES 13 MES 14 MES 15 MES 16 MES 17 MES 18 MES 19
$ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000

$ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000

$ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ -
$ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000

$ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000

$ 36,111,111 $ 36,111,111 $ 36,111,111 $ 36,111,111 $ 36,111,111 $ 36,111,111 $ 36,111,111
$ 61,111,111 $ 61,111,111 $ 61,111,111 $ 61,111,111 $ 61,111,111 $ 61,111,111 $ 61,111,111
$ 8,823,529 $ 8,823,529 $ 8,823,529 $ 8,823,529 $ 8,823,529 $ 8,823,529 $ 8,823,529

$ 69,934,641 $ 69,934,641 $ 69,934,641 $ 69,934,641 $ 69,934,641 $ 69,934,641 $ 69,934,641

 MES 20 MES 21 MES 22 MES 23 MES 24 MES 25 MES 26
$ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000

$ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000

$ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ -
$ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000

$ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000

$ 36,111,111 $ 36,111,111 $ 36,111,111 $ 36,111,111 $ 36,111,111 $ 36,111,111 $ 36,111,111
$ 61,111,111 $ 61,111,111 $ 61,111,111 $ 61,111,111 $ 61,111,111 $ 61,111,111 $ 61,111,111
$ 8,823,529 $ 8,823,529 $ 8,823,529 $ 8,823,529 $ 8,823,529 $ 8,823,529 $ 8,823,529

$ 69,934,641 $ 69,934,641 $ 69,934,641 $ 69,934,641 $ 69,934,641 $ 69,934,641 $ 69,934,641

 MES 27 MES 28 MES 29 MES 30 MES 31 MES 32 MES 33
$ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000

$ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000

$ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ -
$ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000

$ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000

$ 36,111,111 $ 36,111,111 $ 36,111,111 $ 36,111,111 $ 36,111,111 $ 36,111,111 $ 36,111,111
$ 61,111,111 $ 61,111,111 $ 61,111,111 $ 61,111,111 $ 61,111,111 $ 61,111,111 $ 61,111,111
$ 8,823,529 $ 8,823,529 $ 8,823,529 $ 8,823,529 $ 8,823,529 $ 8,823,529 $ 8,823,529

$ 69,934,641 $ 69,934,641 $ 69,934,641 $ 69,934,641 $ 69,934,641 $ 69,934,641 $ 69,934,641

 MES 34 MES 35 MES 36
$ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000

$ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000

$ - $ - $ -
$ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000

$ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000

$ 36,111,111 $ 36,111,111 $ 36,111,111
$ 61,111,111 $ 61,111,111 $ 61,111,111
$ 8,823,529 $ 8,823,529 $ 8,823,529

$ 69,934,641 $ 69,934,641 $ 69,934,641

 X Y
574346840.38 27 5000 ### PDF
629186394.79 51 450
684025949.20 79
400
738865503.61 104
793705058.02 125 350
848544612.42 190 300
903384166.83 238
958223721.24 225 250
1013063275.65 273 200
1067902830.06 309
F(x)
150
1122742384.46 342
1177581938.87 350 100
1232421493.28 401
50
1287261047.69 343
1342100602.10 348 0
57434684...

62918639...

68402594...

84854461...

90338416...

95822372...

11227423...

11775819...

12872610...

13421006...

13969401...

14517797...
73886550...

79370505...

10130632...

10679028...

12324214...
1396940156.50 291
1451779710.91 271
1506619265.32 241 X
1561458819.73 225
1616298374.14 166
1671137928.54 140 PDF
1725977482.95 109 450
1780817037.36 82
400
1835656591.77 46
1890496146.18 24 Value 350
150.00
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F(X)

150

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0
57434684...

62918639...

68402594...

84854461...

90338416...

95822372...

10679028...

11227423...

11775819...

12872610...

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CDF (S)
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 CDF (S)
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P(X)
40%

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0%
519507285.9769 1019507285.9769 15195
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150

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50

0
F Celda R32C2
Nombre VPN
Número de Intentos 5000
Media 1203689817.7406
Mediana 1203549811.4334
Desviación Estándar 281980936.0450
Variación 79513248292818800.0000
Coeficiente de Variación 0.2343
Máximo 1890496146.1760
Mínimo 519507285.9769
Rango 1370988860.1991
Asimetría 0.0042
Curtósis -0.5813
Percentil 25% 1001945771.0816
Percentil 75% 1407042997.7498
12872610...

13421006...

13969401...

14517797...

16162983...

16711379...

18356565...

18904961...
12324214...

15066192...

15614588...

17259774...

17808170...

Precisión de Error 95% 95.0000

0% 519507285.9769
5% 734608800.3943
10% 826070606.4583
20% 949387642.8576
F 30% 1047941340.8185
40% 1130119010.7415
50% 1203549811.4334
60% 1277336896.4301
70% 1362216713.2122
80% 1458472041.7134
90% 1581822283.1264
95% 1677047505.0817
99% 1803740040.2894
100% 1890496146.1760
12872610...

13421006...

13969401...

14517797...

15614588...

16162983...

16711379...

18356565...

18904961...
12324214...

15066192...

17259774...

17808170...

(S)
(S)

1519507285.9769

Left Bin # Line Right Bin # Line

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 X Y
585531987.02 21 5000 ### PDF
639530907.71 50 450
693529828.40 83
400
747528749.09 122
801527669.77 141 350
855526590.46 163 300
909525511.15 214
963524431.84 257 250
1017523352.53 269 200
1071522273.22 283
F(x)
150
1125521193.91 317
1179520114.60 355 100
1233519035.29 410
50
1287517955.98 370
1341516876.66 331 0
58553198...

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1395515797.35 275
1449514718.04 256
1503513638.73 248 X
1557512559.42 222
1611511480.11 160
1665510400.80 156
PDF
1719509321.49 116
450
1773508242.18 105
1827507162.87 52 400
1881506083.56 24 Value
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CDF (S)
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 CDF (S)
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P(X)
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531533066.3290 1031533066.3290 1531
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F Celda R32C2
Nombre VPN
Número de Intentos 5000
Media 1209548049.7098
Mediana 1207321738.1922
Desviación Estándar 282028115.7622
Variación ###
Coeficiente de Variación 0.2332
Máximo 1881506083.5552
Mínimo 531533066.3290
Rango 1349973017.2262
Asimetría 0.0110
Curtósis -0.6144
Percentil 25% 1004191382.2452
Percentil 75% 1413231415.0557
12875179...

13415168...

13955157...

14495147...

16115114...

16655104...

18275071...

18815060...
12335190...

15035136...

15575125...

17195093...

17735082...

Precisión de Error 95% 95.0000

0% 531533066.3290
5% 736304599.9857
10% 828825326.8883
20% 953588040.9762
30% 1054160298.0271
F
40% 1138906146.5012
50% 1207321738.1922
60% 1279656118.1699
70% 1364967742.4051
80% 1466806974.4300
90% 1591116321.7300
95% 1686782871.1429
99% 1797195798.5016
100% 1881506083.5552
12875179...

13415168...

13955157...

14495147...

16115114...

16655104...

18275071...

18815060...
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(S)
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