PROYECCION POBLACIONAL DE LA

CIUDAD DE IQUITOS
PROYECTO: "DISEÑO DE LA PLANTA DE TRATAMIENTO DE AGUAS RESIDUA
DISTRITO DE IQUITOS, PROVINCIA DE MAYNAS, DEPARTAMEN
LORETO"
1.0 METODO ARITMETICO
CENSO POBLACION
(Año) (Habitantes)
1,981 46,719
1,993 69,482
2,007 71,757
2,017 74,100

Ecuación : Pf = Po ( 1 + r t )

Combinaciones con dos censos :

1,981 1,993 === > r1=
1,981 2,007 === > r2=
1,981 2,017 === > r3=
1,993 2,007 === > r4=
1,993 2,017 === > r5=
2,007 2,017 === > r6=

Combinaciones con tres censos :

1,981 1,993 2,007 === > r7 =
1,981 1,993 2,017 === > r8 =
1,981 2,007 2,017 === > r9 =
1,993 2,007 2,017 === > r10 =

Combinación con cuatro censos :

1,981 1,993 2,007 2,017 === > r11 =

Comportamiento histórico de las ecuaciones :

Curva Tasa 1,981 1,993 2,007 2,017

Censo 46,719 69,482 71,757 74,100
1 4.06% (34,211) 1,892 44,013 74,100
2 2.06% 19,113 37,442 58,826 74,100
3 1.63% 30,671 45,147 62,036 74,100
4 0.23% 67,861 69,940 72,366 74,100
5 0.28% 66,712 69,175 72,047 74,100
6 0.33% 65,389 68,293 71,680 74,100
7 2.00% 20,750 38,533 59,280 74,100
8 1.54% 33,071 46,747 62,703 74,100
9 1.58% 31,968 46,012 62,396 74,100
10 0.27% 66,831 69,254 72,080 74,100
11 1.54% 33,150 46,800 62,725 74,100
12 0.77% 53,654 60,469 68,420 74,100
 Curva seleccionada: Po = 74,100
r = 0.7665%

METODO ARITMETICO
95402.9613
87411.783
79420.6047
71429.4264
63438.2481
55447.0698
47455.8915
39464.7132
31473.5349
23482.3566
15491.1783
7500
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2

Censo 7 8 9 10 11

2.0. METODO GEOMETRICO

CENSO POBLACION
(Año) (Habitantes)
1,981 46,719
1,993 69,482
2,007 71,757
2,017 74,100

Ecuación : Pf = Po ( 1 + r ) ^ t

Combinaciones con dos censos :

1,981 1,993 === > r1 =
1,981 2,007 === > r2 =
1,981 2,017 === > r3 =
1,993 2,007 === > r4 =
1,993 2,017 === > r5 =
2,007 2,017 === > r6 =

Combinaciones con tres censos :

1,981 1,993 2,007 === > r7 =
1,981 1,993 2,017 === > r8 =
1,981 2,007 2,017 === > r9 =
 1,993 2,007 2,017 === > r10 =

Combinación con cuatro censos :

1,981 1,993 2,007 2,017 === > r11 =

Comportamiento histórico de las ecuaciones :

Tasa de
Curva Crecimiento 1,981 1,993 2,007 2,017
Censo ----- 46,719 69,482 71,757 74,100
1 3.36% 22,525 33,501 53,231 74,100
2 1.66% 40,904 49,863 62,825 74,100
3 1.29% 46,719 54,483 65,188 74,100
4 0.23% 68,208 70,118 72,414 74,100
5 0.27% 67,282 69,481 72,139 74,100
6 0.32% 66,006 68,600 71,757 74,100
7 0.79% 55,740 61,289 68,465 74,100
8 0.62% 59,243 63,830 69,634 74,100
9 1.05% 50,796 57,609 66,721 74,100
10 0.26% 67,370 69,542 72,165 74,100
11 0.62% 59,363 63,917 69,673 74,100
12 0.94% 52,889 59,181 67,474 74,100

Curva seleccionada: Po = 74,100 habitantes

r = 0.27% %

METODO GEOMETRICO
110000

100000

90000

80000

70000

60000

50000

40000

30000

20000

10000
1,960 1,965 1,970 1,975 1,980 1,985 1,990 1,995 2,000 2,005 2,010

Censo 7 8 9 10 11
3.0. METODO PARABOLICO
CENSO POBLACION
(Año) (Habitantes)
1,981 46719
1,993 69482
2,007 71757
2,017 74100

Ecuación : Pf = A + B t + C t^2

Combinaciones con tres censos :

1981 1993 2007 === > A1 =
B1 =
C1 =
1981 1993 2017 === > A2 =
B2 =
C2 =
1981 2007 2017 === > A3 =
B3 =
C3 =
1993 2007 2017 === > A4 =
B4 =
C4 =
Mínimos cuadrados :
1981 1993 2007 2017 === > A5 =
B5 =
C5 =
Comportamiento histórico de las ecuaciones :

Curva 1,981 1,993 2,007 2,017 Sumator.

Censo 46,719 69,482 71,757 74,100 262,058
1 46,719 69,482 71,757 57,372 245,330
2 46,719 69,482 78,804 74,100 269,105
3 46,719 61,675 71,757 74,100 254,251
4 68,465 69,482 71,757 74,100 283,804
5 47,908 66,168 75,427 74,100 263,603

Curva seleccionada: A = 74,100.00

B = -943.92
C = -47.35

METODO PARABOLICO
120000

100000

80000

60000

40000

20000

0
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Censo 1 2 3 4 5
 60000

40000

20000

0
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Censo 1 2 3 4 5

4.0. CURVA EXPONENCIAL MODIFICADA

CENSO POBLACION
(Año) (Habitantes)
1,981 46,719
1,993 69,482
2,007 71,757
2,017 74,100

Ecuación : Pf = A + B .t

Mínimos cuadrados :
1,981 1,993 2,007 2,017 === > A5 =
B5 =

5.0 SELECCION DEL MODELO DE CRECIMIENTO POBLACIONAL

Cálculo de la población futura tomando como referencia el crecimiento del distrito de Huaraz:

Tasa de crecimento del distrito = 0.60 %

Año Tasa Arimético Geomé- Parabó Exponen.

Referencial trico lico Modifi.
2,007 74,100 74,100 74,100 74,100 74,100
2,008 74,545 74,668 74,299 73,109 78,368
2,009 74,992 75,236 74,498 72,023 79,063
2,010 75,442 75,804 74,698 70,842 79,757
2,011 75,894 76,372 74,899 69,567 80,452
2,012 76,350 76,940 75,100 68,197 81,147
2,013 76,808 77,508 75,302 66,732 81,842
2,014 77,269 78,076 75,504 65,173 82,536
2,015 77,732 78,644 75,707 63,518 83,231
2,016 78,199 79,211 75,910 61,770 83,926
2,017 78,668 79,779 76,114 59,926 84,621
2,018 79,140 80,347 76,318 57,988 85,315
2,019 79,615 80,915 76,523 55,955 86,010
2,020 80,093 81,483 76,728 53,827 86,705
2,021 80,573 82,051 76,934 51,605 87,400
2,022 81,057 82,619 77,141 49,288 88,095
2,023 81,543 83,187 77,348 46,876 88,789
2,024 82,032 83,755 77,556 44,370 89,484
2,025 82,524 84,323 77,764 41,769 90,179
2,026 83,019 84,891 77,973 39,073 90,874
2,027 83,518 85,459 78,182 36,283 91,568
2,028 84,019 86,027 78,392 33,398 92,263
2,029 84,523 86,595 78,602 30,418 92,958
2,030 85,030 87,163 78,813 27,343 93,653
 2,031 85,540 87,731 79,025 24,174 94,347
2,032 86,053 88,299 79,237 20,910 95,042
2,033 86,570 88,866 79,450 17,551 95,737
2,034 87,089 89,434 79,663 14,098 96,432

CONCLUSIÓN: Curva del Método Aritmético

120,000
CURVA DE CRECIMIENTO POBLACIONAL

100,000

80,000

60,000

40,000

20,000

0
2,005 2,010
Tasa 2,015
Arimetico 2,020 Geome 2,025 2,030
Parabo 2,035
Exponen

AÑO; 3
Pa= 70842 = 70843

año: 23
Pf= 27343 = 27344
E LA

DE AGUAS RESIDUALES DEL

YNAS, DEPARTAMENTO DE

OBLACION
Habitantes)

4.06%
2.06%
1.63%
0.23%
0.28%
0.33%

2.00%
1.54%
1.58%
0.27%

1.54%

Sumatoria Diferencia
262,058 ---
Descartar 176,264
189,481 72,577
211,954 50,104
284,267 22,209
282,034 20,590
279,462 19,936
192,663 69,395
216,621 45,437
214,476 47,582
282,265 20,663
216,775 45,283
256,643 19,285
 habitantes
%

1995 2000 2005 2010

10 11

OBLACION
Habitantes)
46,719
69,482
71,757
74,100

3.36%
1.66%
1.29%
0.23%
0.27%
0.32%

0.79%
0.62%
1.05%
 0.26%

0.62%

Sumatoria Diferencia
262,058 ---
183,357 78,701
227,692 34,366
240,490 21,568
284,840 22,782
283,002 20,946
280,463 20,169
259,594 20,506
266,807 20,299
249,226 20,986
283,177 21,119
267,053 20,293
253,644 20,754

2,000 2,005 2,010

10 11
OBLACION
Habitantes)
46719
69482
71757
74100 A B C Curva
0 0 0 Censo
57,372.0 -2,105.58 -66.708 1
74,100.0 -943.92 -47.347 2
74,100.0 31.88 -20.242 3
57,372.00 74,100.0 264.22 2.992 4
-2,105.58 74,100.0 -463.63 -33.088 5
-66.71
74,100.00
-943.92
-47.35
74,100.00
31.88
-20.24
74,100.00
264.22
2.99

74,100.00
-463.63
-33.09

Diferenc.
---
16,728
7,047
7,807
21,746
8,173

2000 2005 2010

4 5
 2000 2005 2010
4 5

OBLACION
Habitantes)
46,719
69,482
71,757
74,100

77,672.97
694.77

strito de Huaraz:

Curva
Elegida
74,100 BASE
78,368 0
79,063 1
79,757 2
80,452 3
81,147 4
81,842 5
82,536 6
83,231 7
83,926 8
84,621 9
85,315 10
86,010 11
86,705 12
87,400
88,095
88,789
89,484
90,179
90,874
91,568
92,263
92,958
93,653
 94,347
95,042
95,737
96,432

LACIONAL

2,030
Parabo 2,035
Exponen 2,040