Our New – #Business #Energy Market #Report is #live – As Jun24 saw the continuation of increased wholesale price movements across both tracked #gas and #power contracts, similar to the movements seen in April and May – with below-average temperatures for the majority of the month keeping a steady level of heating demand on the system, which would typically be lower at this time of the year.
Across the month, we saw day-ahead gas register a 6.8% gain month-on-month to average 81.95p/th. Similarly, front-month contracts registered price increases, up on average by 5.1% when compared to May24, with Jul24 seeing a 5.9% rise to 81.25p/th, and Aug24 growing 4.3% to 82.65 p/th. Gains were supported by restricted gas supply from the Norwegian and UK Continental Shelves acting to tighten system conditions, and as result of continued outages across several large Norwegian gas fields, shorter-dated gas contracts registered gains.
Moreover, prices found support from an outage across the Wheatstone LNG processing facility in Australia, which acted to impact global LNG supply levels and lead to increased Asian cargo competition. Longer-term contracts found support from the increased Asian cargo competition as competition for the procurement of LNG grows, however this remains subdued by strong gas storage stocks across Europe.
Seasonal gas contracts from Win24 to Win26 were, on average 2.5% higher in Jun24 when compared to May24 – despite some risk removed from these contracts as European gas storage levels remain well stocked. In continuation, more notable price gains across front-month contracts were offset by the notable stockpiles of European gas, which currently sit at 76% at the time of writing – boosting gas supply amid reduced Norwegian output.
This trend is anticipated to continue as the summer months progress and temperatures remain elevated – acting to lower gas-for-heating demand.
Rising front-month contracts in gas provided a bullish price direction for power to follow – with day-ahead power prices registering a 5.0% gain month-on-month to average £75.58/MWh. Additionally, these gains can also be attributed to tightened system margins following decreased gas supply, an outage across the Hartlepool 1 nuclear reactor, and below-average temperatures.
Similarly, both front-month power contracts registered gains, as Jul24 rose 4.3% to £74.32/MWh, and Aug24 grew 3.7% to £73.78/MWh. Moreover, much like its gas counterpart, seasonal power prices saw a collective upwards movement – rising 1.6% on average. Win 24 traded as the premium market, seeing a 3.0% increase to average £88.83/MWh.
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