Russia needs to take advantage of the moment as Trump dives into abyss of unknown

With Donald Trump in power, the United States is poised to grow weaker. Russia may get good chances to secure strategic victories, including what some analysts call a "second Yalta peace conference."

Photo: flickr.com by Gage Skidmore, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/

Donald Trump

USA not neutral in Russia-Ukraine Conflict

President Trump portrays himself as a mediator standing above the Russia-Ukraine conflict. However, the US is an active party to the conflict. In practical terms, the US is engaged in a proxy war with Russia. This is evidenced by Ukraine's exclusion from direct negotiations with Moscow. Trump's push for peace talks stems from necessity, rather than from strength on the battlefield.

Primary challenges for the US lie in its domestic agenda. Trump's presidency may cause quite a mess in US domestic affairs, particularly in the economic sphere.

Debt-driven model of US economy

The American economy relies heavily on borrowing to fuel growth. Maintaining past growth rates demands ever-increasing debt, but rising interest rates have made debt servicing costs outpace GDP growth, raising fears of default. In 2023, US taxpayers spent over $1 trillion on interest payments for the $36.2 trillion national debt. Projections suggest this will increase to $1.2 trillion in 2025.

This rapid debt escalation is undermining business investment potential and household consumption. Additionally, sanctions have made US government bonds less attractive to foreign investors which exacerbates the problem even further.

The budget deficit, currently at $2 trillion – six percent of GDP – has remained at this level for nearly two years. This is unsustainable for an expansion-oriented economy. With Trump as President, the deficit is expected to widen further as tax revenues decline due to his promised tax cuts, while spending on immigration initiatives, inflation management, and debt servicing is expected to rise.

Inflation adds another layer of complexity. Consumer prices rose by 21 percent during Biden's four-year term, with significant increases in housing costs, fuel, and services. Meanwhile, average hourly wage growth of 19 percent failed to keep pace leading to a decline in real incomes. Proposed tariffs under Trump are likely to exacerbate inflationary pressures.

Immigration Policies May Backfire

Trump announced plans for the largest deportation campaign in US history. The campaign may target as many as 10 million undocumented immigrants who arrived in the US during Biden's presidency. However, this initiative overlooks its complexity, cost, and economic impact. Thousands of persecuted illegal immigrants will rush to "sanctuary cities" causing the corresponding states to aspire to separatism. Farmers and other industries dependent on migrant labor are likely to feel betrayed.

Rising Domestic Tensions

Globalists have not been defeated at all. They will look for any excuse to bring their supporters to the streets. This could be the murder of an illegal immigrant, a black person or a person from a sexual minority, another school shooting episode or a natural disaster. The two camps in the United States are ready for a battle, and this is not going to be a virtual one.

Trump's Uncertain Leadership

Trump's aggressive rhetoric belies his uncertainty as he faces an unpredictable landscape. Political and economic contradictions are expected to intensify under his leadership, heightening instability in the US. This weakens Trump's ability to negotiate with Russia over Ukraine from a position of strength.

Instead, any agreements might resemble the grand diplomatic arrangements of the Yalta Conference rather than a simple ceasefire.

Details

The United States and Russia maintain one of the most important, critical, and strategic foreign relations in the world. Both nations have shared interests in nuclear safety and security, nonproliferation, counterterrorism, and space exploration. After the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, the relationship was generally warm under the Russian President Boris Yeltsin (1991–99). In the early years of Yeltsin's presidency, the U.S. and Russia established a cooperative relationship and worked closely together to address global issues such as arms control, counterterrorism, and the conflict in Bosnia. During Yeltsin's second term, U.S.-Russia relations became more strained. The NATO intervention in Yugoslavia, in particular, the 1999 NATO intervention in Kosovo, was strongly opposed by Yeltsin. Although the Soviet Union had been strongly opposed by the Titovian flavour of independence, Yeltsin saw it as an infringement on Russia's latter-day sphere of influence. Yeltsin also criticized NATO's expansion into Eastern Europe, which he saw as a threat to Russia's security.