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2018 South Dakota gubernatorial election

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For related races, see 2018 United States gubernatorial elections.

2018 South Dakota gubernatorial election
← 2014 November 6, 2018 2022 →
 
Nominee Kristi Noem Billie Sutton
Party Republican Democratic
Running mate Larry Rhoden Michelle Lavallee
Popular vote 172,912 161,454
Percentage 50.97% 47.60%
Noem:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Sutton:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%
Governor before election

Dennis Daugaard
Republican

Elected Governor

Kristi Noem
Republican

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The 2018 South Dakota gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the next governor of South Dakota. Incumbent Republican governor Dennis Daugaard was term-limited and could not seek a third consecutive term.

Republican candidate Kristi Noem won against Democratic candidate Billie Sutton in the closest gubernatorial election in South Dakota since 1986.[1] Noem also became the first female governor of the state.[2] Her victory extended the longest active hold on a governorship by one party; the GOP has won every gubernatorial election in South Dakota starting in 1978. Conversely, Noem's vote percentage of 51% was the worst performance for any Republican gubernatorial candidate in the state since 1974, while Sutton's 47.6% was the best for any Democratic candidate since 1986.

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Failed to qualify for primary ballot

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Debates

[edit]

Jackley and Noem participated in three debates.

First debate

[edit]

In the first debate both candidates tried to define the other. Jackley stated: "It’s Washington experience versus South Dakota experience." "Marty’s background has been being a government lawyer," Noem said.[12]

Second debate

[edit]

In the second debate, Noem discussed Jackley's scandals. "In EB5, the state oversight program, nobody went to jail. On Gear-Up, still, nobody's been punished. When we talk about what's been going on in Brookings with the Global Aquaponics scam—a con artist, Tobias Ritesman, held a fundraiser for Marty Jackley. Marty attended his phony groundbreaking for his phony project," Noem says. "People lost hundreds of thousands of dollars. Still, nobody's been investigated and nobody’s been prosecuted. That needs to change in our state."

Jackley was on the defensive during the second debate. "Congresswoman, he didn’t hold a fundraiser for me. I was at an event that he was at, and I did go to a ground breaking because that's what important in South Dakota," Jackley says. "When we have businesses expanding I think it’s important that we attend those. You talk about Gear-Up, there hasn’t been a sentencing because these defendants are presumed innocent. But I as attorney general, unlike Washington, have done something about it. I actually formed a grand jury. Indictments have been issued. They're schedule to begin jury trials in July—or, excuse me—June, June 26th and I plan on trying those personally, because that’s what a leader does." [13]

Final debate

[edit]

In the final debate, Jackley and Noem took tough questions about workforce development, anti-discrimination laws, drugs, uniting Democrats and Republicans in the state to make critical decisions and much more. While they spent a lot of time talking about their plans for the state, they also spent a lot of time attacking each other's records. A major topic of contention was Boards and commissions. The state currently has 134 of them. Noem said she wants to streamline different processes for licensure, eliminating "red tape" but Jackley disagreed. "Every time that a proposal comes forward to create a new 'blue ribbon' task force, a board or a commission, what typically comes with that is another layer of bureaucracy," Noem said. Jackley defended the government bureaucracy. "We need a governor that understands that various different boards, isn't out there criticizing different boards and saying that type of service isn't important," Jackley said. Jackley spoke about putting together a task force to work on government transparency and open records laws. "I'm committed when I become governor to put forth a taskforce ...because we need to take a look at the open records law," he said. And they both ended the debate with another jab at one another. "It really comes to down to Washington experience versus South Dakota experience," Jackley said. "The congresswoman has been spending considerable time and effort talking about Marty Jackley, but I'm talking about you, South Dakota." "Days ago he stood up and talked about protecting victims while behind the scenes he was actively working to silence one to further his political career," Noem said. "You deserve a governor who will be honest with you, who will tell you the truth and who is willing to be accountable." [14]

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Kristi
Noem 		Marty
Jackley 		Lora
Hubbel[15] 		Terry
LaFleur[15] 		Undecided
Mason-Dixon[16] May 21–23, 2018 625 ± 4.5% 45% 44% – – 11%
Leverage Public Strategies[17] May 4–7, 2018 350 ± 5.2% 38% 39% – – 24%
Clout Research (R)[18] April 21–23, 2018 815 ± 3.4% 49% 37% – – 14%
Rockbridge Strategy (R)[19] April 4, 2018 500 ± 2.9% 44% 33% – – 23%
Moore Information[20] February 8, 2018 300 ± 6.0% 40% 35% 5% 2% 18%
New Age Consultants (R-LaFleur)[21] November 3, 2017 509 ± 4.4% 22% 24% – 3% 51%

Results

[edit]
Results by county
  Noem
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Jackley
  •   50–60%
Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Kristi Noem 57,437 56.0%
Republican Marty Jackley 45,069 44.0%
Total votes 102,506 100.0%

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Libertarian Party

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Results

[edit]
Libertarian convention delegate vote results[29]
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Kurt Evans 10 66.7%
Libertarian C.J. Abernathey 5 33.3%
Total votes 15 100.0%

Constitution Party

[edit]

Following an internal controversy within the Constitution Party of South Dakota over who was the legal party chair, Dan Lederman—individually and in his capacity as chair of the South Dakota Republican Party—sued Republican secretary of state Shantel Krebs to prevent her from certifying any Constitution Party nominees for the general-election ballot. For somewhat complex reasons, state circuit judge Patricia DeVaney ruled in favor of the Republican Party on August 17.[30][31]

G. Matt Johnson and Lora Hubbel—Constitution Party nominees for the state's at-large U.S. House seat and governor respectively—then sued Krebs in federal court on August 29 seeking ballot access for themselves and four other Constitution Party nominees. For various procedural reasons, federal district judge Roberto Lange ruled against the Constitution Party on October 1.[32][33][34]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Withdrawn

[edit]

Independents

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

General election

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[41] Tossup October 26, 2018
The Washington Post[42] Tossup November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[43] Lean R November 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report[44] Tilt R November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[45] Lean R November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[46] Tossup November 4, 2018
Daily Kos[47] Lean R November 5, 2018
Fox News[48][a] Lean R November 5, 2018
Politico[49] Tossup November 5, 2018
Governing[50] Tossup November 5, 2018
Notes
  1. ^ The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Endorsements

[edit]
Kristi Noem (R)

Federal officials

State officials

Individuals

Organizations

Billie Sutton (D)

Federal officials

State officials

County and local officials

Labor unions

  • South Dakota Education Association[61]

Organizations

  • Great Plains Tribal Chairman's Association[62]

Newspapers

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Kristi
Noem (R) 		Billie
Sutton (D) 		Kurt
Evans (L) 		Other Undecided
Change Research[65] November 2–4, 2018 851 – 45% 51% 2% – –
Emerson College[66] November 1–4, 2018 514 ± 4.5% 48% 47% – 1% 5%
Mason-Dixon[67] October 29–31, 2018 500 ± 4.5% 47% 44% 1% – 8%
Mason-Dixon[68] October 18–22, 2018 500 ± 4.5% 45% 45% 1% – 9%
ALG Research (D-Sutton)[69] September 20–24, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 42% 45% 3% – 10%
ALG Research (D-Sutton)[70] July 19–25, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 46% 42% – – 13%
ALG Research (D-Sutton)[69] October 4–9, 2017[71] 500 ± 4.4% 53% 40% – – –

Results

[edit]
South Dakota gubernatorial election, 2018[72]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Kristi Noem 172,912 50.97% −19.50%
Democratic Billie Sutton 161,454 47.60% +22.17%
Libertarian Kurt Evans 4,848 1.43% N/A
Total votes 339,214 100.00% N/A
Republican hold

By county

[edit]
County Kristi Noem

Larry Rhoden

Republican

Billie Sutton

Michelle Lavallee

Democratic

Kurt Evans

Richard Shelatz

Libertarian

Total

votes

% # % # % #
Aurora 50.31% 644 47.42% 607 2.27% 29 1,280
Beadle 52.09% 3,182 46.37% 2,832 1.54% 94 6,108
Bennett 50.18% 553 47.46% 523 2.36% 26 1,102
Bon Homme 47.43% 1,303 51.26% 1,408 1.31% 36 2,747
Brookings 44.35% 5,225 54.09% 6,372 1.55% 183 11,780
Brown 47.48% 6,821 51.08% 7,338 1.44% 206 14,365
Brule 51.78% 1,103 46.53% 991 1.69% 36 2,130
Buffalo 25.18% 138 73.54% 403 1.28% 7 548
Butte 65.78% 2,505 32.41% 1,234 1.81% 69 3,808
Campbell 75.14% 550 23.63% 173 1.23% 9 732
Charles Mix 46.76% 1,661 52.17% 1,853 1.07% 38 3,552
Clark 52.82% 879 46.15% 768 1.02% 17 1,664
Clay 33.42% 1,552 65.44% 3,039 1.14% 53 4,644
Codington 54.85% 5,865 43.93% 4,697 1.22% 131 10,693
Corson 38.38% 426 60.09% 667 1.53% 17 1,110
Custer 63.26% 2,789 35.09% 1,547 1.65% 73 4,409
Davison 51.95% 3,779 46.71% 3,398 1.33% 97 7,274
Day 43.46% 1,207 55.13% 1,531 1.40% 39 2,777
Deuel 52.94% 1,053 44.90% 893 2.16% 43 1,989
Dewey 21.35% 393 77.68% 1,430 0.97% 18 1,841
Douglas 74.87% 1,120 24.26% 363 0.87% 13 1,496
Edmunds 59.60% 1,018 39.29% 671 1.11% 19 1,708
Fall River 64.51% 2,059 33.36% 1,065 2.13% 68 3,192
Faulk 62.70% 674 36.09% 388 1.21% 13 1,075
Grant 55.28% 1,780 43.11% 1,388 1.61% 52 3,220
Gregory 51.42% 1,107 47.79% 1,029 0.79% 17 2,153
Haakon 77.67% 734 20.74% 196 1.59% 15 945
Hamlin 64.95% 1,764 33.98% 923 1.07% 29 2,716
Hand 57.16% 950 41.10% 683 1.74% 29 1,662
Hanson 58.69% 945 40.19% 647 1.12% 18 1,610
Harding 73.62% 505 25.36% 174 1.31% 9 686
Hughes 46.82% 3,749 51.75% 4,144 1.42% 114 8,007
Hutchinson 63.28% 2,082 35.87% 1,180 0.85% 28 3,290
Hyde 61.67% 407 37.57% 248 0.76% 5 660
Jackson 51.97% 513 46.00% 454 2.03% 20 987
Jerauld 51.79% 478 46.91% 433 1.30% 12 923
Jones 66.12% 361 31.68% 173 2.20% 12 546
Kingsbury 53.08% 1,303 45.25% 1,111 1.67% 41 2,455
Lake 47.69% 2,483 51.26% 2,669 1.05% 55 5,207
Lawrence 54.91% 5,984 42.90% 4,675 2.19% 239 10,898
Lincoln 53.27% 12,894 45.89% 11,109 0.84% 203 24,206
Lyman 49.36% 691 48.71% 682 1.93% 27 1,400
Marshall 43.15% 853 55.28% 1,093 1.57% 31 1,977
McCook 55.07% 1,375 43.37% 1,083 1.56% 39 2,497
McPherson 69.16% 729 29.32% 309 1.52% 16 1,054
Meade 62.70% 6,413 34.80% 3,559 2.50% 256 10,228
Mellette 42.05% 299 55.56% 395 2.39% 17 711
Miner 47.33% 523 51.58% 570 1.09% 12 1,105
Minnehaha 45.78% 32,355 52.98% 37,450 1.24% 876 70,681
Moody 46.97% 1,340 51.49% 1,469 1.54% 44 2,853
Oglala Lakota 7.05% 214 91.50% 2,778 1.45% 44 3,036
Pennington 55.06% 22,944 43.17% 17,988 1.77% 738 41,670
Perkins 70.91% 953 27.38% 368 1.71% 23 1,344
Potter 67.91% 821 30.85% 373 1.24% 15 1,209
Roberts 43.87% 1,643 55.06% 2,062 1.07% 40 3,745
Sanborn 57.68% 593 40.76% 419 1.56% 16 1,028
Spink 49.02% 1,376 49.66% 1,394 1.32% 37 2,807
Stanley 51.24% 762 47.35% 704 1.41% 21 1,487
Sully 61.58% 500 36.45% 296 1.97% 16 812
Todd 17.40% 390 81.70% 1,831 0.90% 20 2,241
Tripp 57.45% 1,430 41.10% 1,023 1.45% 36 2,489
Turner 58.75% 2,272 40.24% 1,556 1.01% 39 3,867
Union 60.85% 4,068 38.06% 2,544 1.09% 73 6,685
Walworth 64.98% 1,468 33.29% 752 1.73% 39 2,259
Yankton 45.73% 4,121 52.78% 4,757 1.49% 134 9,012
Ziebach 29.32% 241 69.59% 572 1.09% 9 822
Total 50.97% 172,912 47.60% 161,454 1.43% 4,848 339,214

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

References

[edit]
  1. ^ Ellis, Jonathon (November 6, 2018). "Yes, South Dakota has had close governor races, but it's been awhile". Argus Leader. Retrieved November 8, 2018.
  2. ^ Nord, James (January 5, 2019). "Kristi Noem sworn in as South Dakota's 1st female governor". AP.
  3. ^ Tan, Tiffany (February 5, 2016). "Noem open to running for governor". Rapid City Journal. Retrieved June 14, 2016.
  4. ^ Hagen, Lisa (November 14, 2016). "South Dakota rep. launches gubernatorial bid". The Hill. Retrieved November 14, 2016.
  5. ^ "Marty Jackley moves $700K toward governor run". Argus Leader. Retrieved December 4, 2016.
  6. ^ "SD Attorney General Marty Jackley Jumps into 2018 Governors Race | Radio 570 WNAX". Radio 570 WNAX. Retrieved December 4, 2016.
  7. ^ a b Epp, Todd (March 27, 2018). "UPDATE: Who is officially on ballot for Governor, House? Hubbel running as independent". KELO Newstalk. Archived from the original on August 12, 2018. Retrieved June 5, 2018.
  8. ^ Dockendorf, Randy (March 31, 2017). "Michels Says He Won't Run For Governor". Yankton Daily Press & Dakotan. Retrieved March 31, 2017.
  9. ^ Ellis, Jonathan (February 14, 2015). "Noem, Mickelson, Jackley eye governor". Argus Leader. Retrieved June 14, 2016.
  10. ^ Holland, Jim (April 16, 2016). "Mark Mickelson visit could presage run for the governorship". Rapid City Journal. Retrieved June 14, 2016.
  11. ^ "Mark Mickelson Says He Won't Run For Governor In 2018". KELOLAND News. Archived from the original on May 23, 2018. Retrieved May 22, 2018.
  12. ^ "Jackley and Noem battle in TV debate". capjournal.com. May 28, 2018. Retrieved July 6, 2021.
  13. ^ "GOP Governor Candidates Spar Over Transparency During SDPB TV Debate". sdpb.org. May 30, 2018. Retrieved July 6, 2021.
  14. ^ "Jackley, Noem face-off in final contentious debate before primary election". dakotanewsnow.com. May 31, 2018. Retrieved July 6, 2021.
  15. ^ a b hypothetical Republican candidate, seeking Constitution Party nomination
  16. ^ Mason-Dixon Archived 2018-05-30 at the Wayback Machine
  17. ^ Leverage Public Strategies
  18. ^ Clout Research (R)
  19. ^ Rockbridge Strategy (R)
  20. ^ Moore Information
  21. ^ New Age Consultants (R-LaFleur) Archived 2017-12-22 at the Wayback Machine
  22. ^ Ferguson, Dana (May 31, 2017). "Democrats, Sutton enter South Dakota governor race". Argus Leader. Retrieved May 31, 2017.
  23. ^ Woster, Kevin (October 3, 2015). "Disaffected Democrats ready to return to Herseth Sandlin — in the governor's race". KELO-TV. Archived from the original on August 19, 2016. Retrieved June 14, 2016.
  24. ^ Raposa, Megan (February 23, 2017). "Herseth Sandlin: 'I am done seeking political office'". Argus Leader. Retrieved April 1, 2017.
  25. ^ Ellis, Jonathan (November 5, 2015). "Mayor says he'll need 'suicide watch' when term ends". Argus Leader. Retrieved June 14, 2016.
  26. ^ Tupper, Seth (November 10, 2015). "Beginning of the Huether for Governor tour?". Rapid City Journal. Retrieved June 14, 2016.
  27. ^ a b Anderson, Patrick (December 19, 2016). "Huether dumps Dems amid speculation of statewide run". Argus Leader. Retrieved April 1, 2017.
  28. ^ a b Bardash, Ellen (May 21, 2018). "Evans announces run for Libertarian Party nomination". Mitchell Daily Republic. Retrieved July 18, 2018.
  29. ^ Heidelberger, Cory (June 10, 2018). "Libertarian Party Resets, Picks Evans over Abernathey for Governor". Dakota Free Press. Retrieved July 18, 2018.
  30. ^ a b c d e Epp, Todd (August 15, 2018). "Constitution Party has two gubernatorial candidates--for now". KELO Newstalk. Archived from the original on November 11, 2018. Retrieved October 5, 2018.
  31. ^ Askins, Dave (August 19, 2018). "Libertarians listed first on South Dakota ballots". Pierre Capital Journal. Retrieved October 5, 2018.
  32. ^ Peters, Anna (August 30, 2018). "South Dakota Candidates File Lawsuit To Get On November Ballot". KELO-TV. Retrieved October 5, 2018.
  33. ^ Mallory, Brady (September 27, 2018). "Federal Judge Hears Constitution Party Members' Lawsuit". KELO-TV. Archived from the original on September 28, 2018. Retrieved October 5, 2018.
  34. ^ Winger, Richard (October 3, 2018). "South Dakota Constitution Party Asks Federal Court to Put Its Nominees on Ballot and to Resolve Intra-Party Dispute, but Court Declines". Ballot Access News. Retrieved October 5, 2018.
  35. ^ Heidelberger, Cory (June 17, 2018). "Gortmaker Challenges LaFleur for Constitution Party Nomination for Governor". Dakota Free Press. Retrieved September 28, 2018.
  36. ^ Sneve, Joe (March 7, 2017). "Huether moves hint at 2018 run". Argus Leader. Retrieved April 1, 2017.
  37. ^ Collen, Courtney (March 23, 2017). "Sitting down with Mayor Mike and Cindy Huether Sitting down with Mike and Cindy Huether". KSFY. Retrieved April 1, 2017.
  38. ^ Ferguson, Dana (June 20, 2018). "Kristi Noem names long-time state lawmaker Larry Rhoden as running mate". Argus Leader. Retrieved October 6, 2018.
  39. ^ Ferguson, Dana (June 14, 2018). "Billie Sutton names running mate right before SD Democractic Party meet in Sioux Falls". Argus Leader. Retrieved October 6, 2018.
  40. ^ Venhuizen, Tony (June 10, 2018). "Libertarians and the modern history of minor party candidates for SD Governor". SoDak Governors. Retrieved October 6, 2018.
  41. ^ "2018 Governor Race Ratings for October 26, 2018". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved April 10, 2021.
  42. ^ "The Washington Post's gubernatorial race ratings". The Washington Post. October 16, 2018.
  43. ^ "2018 Governor Forecast | FiveThirtyEight". FiveThirtyEight. October 17, 2018. Retrieved October 17, 2018.
  44. ^ "2018 Gubernatorial Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved November 15, 2017.
  45. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2018 Governor". www.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved November 15, 2017.
  46. ^ "2018 Governor Races". RealClearPolitics. October 9, 2018.
  47. ^ "2018 Governor Race Ratings". Daily Kos. June 5, 2018.[permanent dead link‍]
  48. ^ "2018 Midterm Power Ranking". Fox News. May 16, 2023.
  49. ^ "Politico Race Ratings". Politico.
  50. ^ "2018 Governor Elections: As November Nears, More Governors' Races Become Tossups". www.governing.com. Archived from the original on October 21, 2018. Retrieved July 18, 2018.
  51. ^ "Trump endorses Noem in South Dakota". The Washington Post. September 7, 2018. Archived from the original on September 8, 2018.
  52. ^ Mike Pence. "PROUD to stand with @KristiNoem - the next Governor of the Great State of South Dakota! Go vote @KristiNoem tomorrow!". Twitter.
  53. ^ a b c d Tupper, Seth (October 23, 2018). "Four days after saying he was undecided, Jackley endorses Noem". Rapid City Journal. Archived from the original on October 23, 2018.(subscription required)
  54. ^ Ivanka Trump. "I appreciate the great work of @RepKristiNoem to deliver massive tax cuts + much needed relief to hard working American families! She is a tireless champion for the great people of South Dakota! VOTE for Kristi Noem for Governor!". Twitter.
  55. ^ "SD RIGHT TO LIFE ENDORSES NOEM". Kristi for Governor. August 29, 2018. Archived from the original on November 6, 2018. Retrieved November 6, 2018.
  56. ^ "Your Freedom is Under Attack! Vote On or Before November 6th!". nrapvf.org. NRA-PVF. Archived from the original on July 21, 2021. Retrieved July 24, 2023. don't forget to vote Kristi Noem for Governor!
  57. ^ "NRA endorses Kristi Noem for governor". KSFY. September 24, 2018. Archived from the original on September 24, 2018.
  58. ^ Mearhoff, Sarah (October 25, 2018). "SD bombshell: Poll shows governor's race dead heat in deep red state". The Globe. Archived from the original on November 4, 2018. Retrieved November 2, 2018.
  59. ^ "Sutton Picks Up Republican Endorsements". KDLT. October 25, 2018. Archived from the original on November 5, 2018. Retrieved November 2, 2018.
  60. ^ a b c d e f g h i j Mercer, Bob (October 30, 2018). "Election Analysis: Democrats Seeking Republican Votes". KELO. Nexstar Media Group.
  61. ^ Royal, Allison (September 11, 2018). "South Dakota Education Association Endorses Billie Sutton - KDLT". KDLT. KDLT-TV. Archived from the original on September 13, 2018. Retrieved September 13, 2018.
  62. ^ "Sutton Gathers Input from Nine Tribes; Receives Endorsement of Tribal Chairmen | Lakota Country Times". www.lakotacountrytimes.com. Lakota Country Times. September 6, 2018.
  63. ^ "Editorial: Billie Sutton makes sense for South Dakota". Argus Leader. Argus Leader. October 18, 2018.
  64. ^ "OURS: Journal endorses Sutton for governor". Rapid City Journal. Rapid City Journal. October 19, 2018.
  65. ^ Change Research
  66. ^ Emerson College
  67. ^ Mason-Dixon
  68. ^ Mason-Dixon
  69. ^ a b ALG Research (D-Sutton)
  70. ^ ALG Research (D-Sutton)
  71. ^ Mehta, Aaron Bycoffe, Ritchie King and Dhrumil (June 28, 2018). "South Dakota Governor Polls". FiveThirtyEight.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  72. ^ "South Dakota Secretary of State" (PDF). sdsos.gov.
[edit]

Official campaign websites

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