User:Wuwenhao19960507/sandbox: Difference between revisions
I have added an introduction to the definition and calculation method of China's unemployment rate, as well as the survey methodology and data collection process. Additionally, I included statistical data on unemployment rates in recent years, covering the employment and unemployment situation from 2018 to 2023, and explained the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the unemployment rate. |
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Revision as of 11:59, 6 October 2024
Definition and Calculation Method
The surveyed unemployment rate is defined as the percentage of the unemployed population relative to the sum of the employed and unemployed populations, calculated through a sample survey estimation. The formula is as follows:
Number of Unemployed Persons
Surveyed Unemployment Rate = ———————————————————————————————— × 100%
Number of Unemployed Persons + Number of Employed Persons
In this formula, the numerator represents the number of unemployed persons, while the denominator represents the labor force, which is the sum of the unemployed and employed populations, rather than the total population aged 16 and above. Since the non-labor force population is not included in the calculation of the surveyed unemployment rate, this indicator measures the proportion of the unemployed population within the labor force, not within the entire population aged 16 and above. For example, if the urban surveyed unemployment rate is 5.0%, it indicates that 5 out of every 100 people in the labor force are unemployed, rather than 5 out of every 100 people aged 16 and above.[1]
The definition of employed and unemployed persons are in accordance with resolutions released by the 19th International Conference of Labour Statisticians of ILO. Employed Persons are defined as those who are 16 years and above, and work at least one hour for remuneration or business profit during the reference week. Those who are temporarily absent from job for training, vacation or illness, or because of suspension of work and will return to the same job/business within one month, are also included in the employed. Unemployed Persons are defined as those aged 16 and above who are not employed during the reference week, and had looked for job activity during the 3-month before the reference week, and are available to work in two weeks, including those waiting for a job due to start in 3 months.Urban Unemployment Rate refers to the percent of the unemployed population to the sum of the employed and unemployed population in urban areas.[2]
Survey Methodology and Data Collection
The surveyed unemployment rate in China is derived from the Monthly Labor Force Survey, which employs a stratified, multi-stage, probability proportional to size (PPS) sampling method. The sampling process involves randomly selecting neighborhood (or village) committees within China, followed by a systematic random sampling of households within the selected committees. Each month, approximately 340,000 households are surveyed, covering all prefecture-level cities and county-level regions across mainland China. Based on the current sampling design, at a 90% confidence level, the relative error of China’s urban surveyed unemployment rate is within 2%. For example, if the estimated urban surveyed unemployment rate is 5%, the true unemployment rate is expected to fall within the range of 4.9% to 5.1% with 90% confidence. During specific periods each month, enumerators collect employment and unemployment information from selected households using electronic devices (PADs) and directly report the data to the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) via an online reporting system. The NBS processes the submitted data, performs weighted aggregation, and estimates the national and provincial urban surveyed unemployment rates.[3]
Data Coverage
According to the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS Website), the unemployment data is compiled based on the Monthly Labor Force Survey, which covers the entire mainland China. The survey does not include data from Hong Kong, Macao, or Taiwan.[4]
Recent Data
2018
At the end of 2018, the number of employed people in China was 775.86 million, and that in urban areas was 434.19 million. The newly increased employed people in urban areas numbered 13.61 million, 0.10 million more than the previous year. The surveyed urban unemployment rate was 4.9 percent at the year end, 0.1 percentage point lower than the end of 2017. The registered urban unemployment rate was 3.8 percent, 0.1 percentage point lower. The total number of migrant workers in 2018 was 288.36 million, up by 0.6 percent over that of 2017. Specifically, the number of migrant workers who left their hometowns and worked in other places was 172.66 million, up by 0.5 percent, and those who worked in their own localities reached 115.70 million, up by 0.9 percent.[5]
2019
At the end of 2019, the number of employed people in China was 774.71 million, and that in urban areas was 442.47 million, accounting for 57.1 percent of the national employed people, 1.1 percentage points higher than the end of 2018. The newly increased employed people in urban areas numbered 13.52 million, 90 thousand less than the previous year. The surveyed urban unemployment rate was 5.2 percent at the year end, and the registered urban unemployment rate was 3.6 percent. The total number of migrant workers in 2019 was 290.77 million, up by 0.8 percent over that of 2018. Specifically, the number of migrant workers who left their hometowns and worked in other places was 174.25 million, up by 0.9 percent, and those who worked in their own localities reached 116.52 million, up by 0.7 percent.[6]
2020
At the end of 2020,the newly increased employed people in urban areas numbered 11.86 million, 1.66 million less than the previous year. The surveyed urban unemployment rate was 5.2 percent at the year end, and the registered urban unemployment rate was 4.2 percent. The total number of migrant workers was 285.60 million, down by 1.8 percent over that of 2019. Specifically, the number of migrant workers who left their hometowns and worked in other places was 169.59 million, down by 2.7 percent, and those who worked in their own localities reached 116.01 million, down by 0.4 percent.[7]
2021
At the end of 2021, the number of employed people in China was 746.52 million, and that in urban areas was 467.73 million, accounting for 62.7 percent for the total employed people, 1.1 percentage points higher than that at the end of the previous year. The newly increased employed people in urban areas numbered 12.69 million in 2021, 0.83 million more than the previous year. The surveyed urban unemployment rate in 2021 averaged 5.1 percent. The surveyed urban unemployment rate at the year end was 5.1 percent, and the registered urban unemployment rate was 3.96 percent. The total number of migrant workers was 292.51 million, up by 2.4 percent over that of 2020. Specifically, the number of migrant workers who left their hometowns and worked in other places was 171.72 million, up by 1.3 percent, and those who worked in their own localities reached 120.79 million, up by 4.1 percent.[8]
2022
At the end of 2022, the number of employed people in China was 733.51 million, and that in urban areas was 459.31 million, accounting for 62.6 percent of the total employed people. The newly increased employed people in urban areas numbered 12.06 million in 2022, 0.63 million less than that of the previous year. The surveyed urban unemployment rate in 2022 averaged 5.6 percent. The surveyed urban unemployment rate at the year end was 5.5 percent. The total number of migrant workers was 295.62 million, up by 1.1 percent over that of 2021. Specifically, the number of migrant workers who left their hometowns and worked in other places was 171.90 million, up by 0.1 percent, and those who worked in their own localities reached 123.72 million, up by 2.4 percent.[9]
In March 2022, due to the intensification of the COVID-19 outbreak in certain regions, the recovery of production and business activities was affected. Sectors such as construction, transportation, accommodation and catering, wholesale and retail, residential services, and cultural tourism were significantly impacted, leading to a weakening in labor demand. As a result, the urban surveyed unemployment rate rose to 5.8%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month. The unemployment rate for the primary working-age group (adults aged 25-59) increased by 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, reaching 5.2%. Among key groups, the unemployment rate of migrant workers with rural household registration, who typically return to the labor market after the Spring Festival, rose by 0.7 percentage points from January to 5.6% in February. In March, due to the ongoing impact of the pandemic, the unemployment rate of this group continued to rise, reaching 5.9%, exceeding the overall urban unemployment rate for two consecutive months.[10]
2023
At the end of 2023, the number of employed people in China was 740.41 million, and that in urban areas was 470.32 million, accounting for 63.5 percent of the total employed people. The newly increased employed people in urban areas[7] numbered 12.44 million in 2023, 0.38 million more than that of the previous year. The urban surveyed unemployment rate in 2023 averaged 5.2 percent. The urban surveyed unemployment rate at the year end was 5.1 percent. The total number of migrant workers was 297.53 million, up by 0.6 percent over that of 2022. Specifically, the number of migrant workers who left their hometowns and worked in other places was 176.58 million, up by 2.7 percent, and those who worked in their own localities reached 120.95 million, down by 2.2 percent.[11]
- ^ "什么是调查失业率 - 国家统计局". www.stats.gov.cn. Retrieved 2024-10-06.
- ^ "Dissemination Standards Bulletin Board". dsbb.imf.org. Retrieved 2024-10-06.
- ^ "什么是调查失业率 - 国家统计局". www.stats.gov.cn. Retrieved 2024-10-06.
- ^ "Dissemination Standards Bulletin Board". dsbb.imf.org. Retrieved 2024-10-06.
- ^ "Statistical Communiqué of the People's Republic of China on the 2018 National Economic and Social Development". www.stats.gov.cn. Retrieved 2024-10-06.
- ^ "Statistical Communiqué of the People's Republic of China on the 2019 National Economic and Social Development". www.stats.gov.cn. Retrieved 2024-10-06.
- ^ "Statistical Communiqué of the People's Republic of China on the 2020 National Economic and Social Development". www.stats.gov.cn. Retrieved 2024-10-06.
- ^ "Statistical Communiqué of the People's Republic of China on the 2021 National Economic and Social Development". www.stats.gov.cn. Retrieved 2024-10-06.
- ^ "STATISTICAL COMMUNIQUÉ OF THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA ON THE 2022 NATIONAL ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT". www.stats.gov.cn. Retrieved 2024-10-06.
- ^ "王萍萍:受疫情影响城镇调查失业率有所上升 _中国经济网——国家经济门户". www.ce.cn. Retrieved 2024-10-06.
- ^ "STATISTICAL COMMUNIQUÉ OF THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA ON THE 2023 NATIONAL ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT". www.stats.gov.cn. Retrieved 2024-10-06.