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===Nominee===
===Nominee===
*Ted Brown, insurance adjuster and nominee for {{ushr|TX|17}} in [[2020 United States House of Representatives elections in Texas#District 17|2020]]<ref>{{cite web |last1=Dawson |first1=Noah |title=Texas Libertarian Party Announces Statewide Nominees |url=https://www.amarillopioneer.com/blog/2024/4/15/texas-libertarian-party-announces-statewide-nominees |work=The Amarillo Pioneer |access-date=27 June 2024 |date=15 April 2024}}</ref>
*Ted Brown, insurance adjuster and nominee for {{ushr|TX|17}} in [[2020 United States House of Representatives elections in Texas#District 17|2020]]<ref>{{cite web |last1=Dawson |first1=Noah |title=Texas Libertarian Party Announces Statewide Nominees |url=https://www.amarillopioneer.com/blog/2024/4/15/texas-libertarian-party-announces-statewide-nominees |work=The Amarillo Pioneer |access-date=27 June 2024 |date=15 April 2024}}</ref>

==Write-in candidates==
===Declared===
*Rev. Dr. Tracy Andrus, pastor and Director of the [[Lee P. Brown]] Criminal Justice Institute at [[Wiley University]]<ref>{{cite web |last1=Richardson |first1=Robin Y. |title=Andrus misses primary election, will be write-in candidate for U.S. Senate seat |url=https://www.marshallnewsmessenger.com/election_2020/andrus-misses-primary-election-will-be-write-in-candidate-for-u-s-senate-seat/article_81917bb0-d294-11ee-9ca9-e385f46366c3.html |website=Marshall News Messenger |access-date=14 July 2024 |language=en |date=27 February 2024}}</ref>


== General election ==
== General election ==

Revision as of 04:07, 14 July 2024

For related races, see 2024 United States Senate elections.
Not to be confused with 2024 Texas Senate election.
2024 United States Senate election in Texas
← 2018 November 5, 2024 2030 →
 
Nominee Ted Cruz Colin Allred
Party Republican Democratic
Incumbent U.S. senator

Ted Cruz
Republican



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The 2024 United States Senate election in Texas will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Texas. Two-term incumbent Republican Senator Ted Cruz is seeking a third term in office.[1] Primary elections took place on March 5, 2024 during Super Tuesday.[2]

U.S. Representative Colin Allred won the Democratic nomination to challenge Cruz. If he wins, he will become the first Democrat to win a U.S. Senate race in Texas since 1988 and the first Democrat to win any statewide election in Texas since 1994.

Background

Texas is generally considered to be a Republican stronghold, having not elected a Democrat to any statewide office since 1994.[3] Republicans control both U.S. Senate seats, all statewide offices, both houses of the Texas Legislature, and a large majority in Texas' U.S. House congressional delegation. Cruz was first elected in 2012, defeating Paul Sadler by 15.84 points and was reelected in 2018 by only 2.56 points, narrowly defeating Beto O'Rourke.[4][5] The close elections in 2018 prompted many electoral analysts to speculate that Texas could become a swing state, but in the 2020 and 2022 elections, Republicans increased their margins of victory.[6][7] This race is considered to heavily favor Cruz, but some consider the race to have a potential to become competitive.[8]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

  • Holland Gibson, retiree[10]
  • Rufus Lopez, attorney[10]

Declined

Endorsements

Ted Cruz
U.S. senators
Labor unions
Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of February 14, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Ted Cruz (R) $46,587,309 $40,169,663 $6,575,604
Source: Federal Election Commission[22]

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Ted
Cruz 		Holland
Gibson 		Rufus
Lopez 		Other Undecided
YouGov[A] February 2–12, 2024 492 (RV) ± 4.42% 82% 7% 3% 9% –

Results

Results by county:
  Cruz
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   >90%
Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Ted Cruz (incumbent) 1,977,961 88.30%
Republican Holland Gibson 134,011 5.98%
Republican Rufus Lopez 127,986 5.71%
Total votes 2,239,958 100.00%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Disqualified

  • Aaron Arguijo, coffee shop owner[27][10]

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Colin Allred
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
State legislators
Local officials
Individuals
Organizations
Labor unions
Newspapers and other media
Roland Gutierrez
U.S. representatives
State legislators
Individuals
Organizations
Newspapers
Declined to endorse
Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of February 14, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Colin Allred (D) $21,371,157 $12,867,031 $8,504,126
Mark Gonzalez (D) $14,967[b] $11,659 $3,307
Roland Gutierrez (D) $1,301,543 $1,146,487 $155,055
Steven Keough (D) $27,357[c] $27,730 $0
Heli Rodriguez-Prilliman (D) $30,458 $29,440 $1,017
Carl Sherman (D) $173,565 $150,616 $22,949
Thierry Tchenko (D) $117,067 $106,606 $10,461
Source: Federal Election Commission[22]

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Colin
Allred 		Meri
Gomez 		Mark
Gonzalez 		Roland
Gutierrez 		Carl
Sherman 		Other Undecided
UT Tyler February 18–26, 2024 441 (LV) ± 5.3% 37% – – 22% 6% 2% 32%
YouGov[A] February 2–12, 2024 354 (RV) ± 5.21% 52% 3% 5% 14% 2% 5%[d] 18%
YouGov[B] January 11–24, 2024 1,500 (LV) ± 2.5% 40% 4% 2% 12% 1% 3%[e] 38%
Emerson College[C] January 13–15, 2024 460 (RV) ± 4.81% 29% 4% 6% 7% 2% 15%[f] 37%
YouGov[A] December 1–10, 2023 415 (RV) ± 4.81% 28% 3% 2% 7% 2% 10%[g] 48%
YouGov[A] October 5–17, 2023 409 (RV) ± 4.84% 21% 2% 2% 10% 2% 15%[h] 46%
Texas Hispanic
Policy Foundation 		May 8–17, 2023 1,000 (RV) ± 2.9% 33% – – 22% – 4%[i] 41%

Results

Results by county:
  Allred
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   >90%
  Gutierrez
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Gonzalez
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   >90%
  Tied
  No Votes
Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Colin Allred 569,585 58.87%
Democratic Roland Gutierrez 160,978 16.64%
Democratic Mark Gonzalez 85,228 8.81%
Democratic Meri Gomez 44,166 4.56%
Democratic Carl Sherman 31,694 3.28%
Democratic Robert Hassan 21,855 2.26%
Democratic Steven Keough 21,801 2.25%
Democratic Heli Rodriguez-Prilliman 18,801 1.94%
Democratic Thierry Tchenko 13,395 1.38%
Total votes 967,503 100.00%

Libertarian convention

Nominee

Write-in candidates

Declared

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[77] Likely R November 9, 2023
Inside Elections[78] Likely R November 9, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[79] Likely R November 9, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[80] Likely R June 8, 2024
Elections Daily[81] Likely R May 4, 2023
CNalysis[82] Lean R November 21, 2023

Post-primary endorsements

Ted Cruz (R)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
Colin Allred (D)
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Individuals
Organizations

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Ted
Cruz (R) 		Colin
Allred (D) 		Other Undecided
Remington Research Group (R)[D] June 29 – July 1, 2024 589 (LV) ± 4.0% 53% 43% – 4%
Manhattan Institute June 25–27, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 43% 3%[j] 8%
YouGov[A] May 31 – June 9, 2024 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 45% 34% 6% 15%
YouGov[A] April 12–22, 2024 1,200 (RV) ± 2.83% 46% 33% 7% 22%
Texas Lyceum April 12–21, 2024 926 (RV) ± 3.2% 41% 31% 13% 15%
Marist College March 18–21, 2024 1,117 (RV) ± 3.8% 51% 45% 1% 3%
UT Tyler February 18–26, 2024 1,167 (RV) ± 3.2% 41% 41% 7% 12%
YouGov[A] February 2–12, 2024 1,200 (RV) ± 3.49% 46% 32% 9% 13%
National Public Affairs February 6–8, 2024 807 (LV) ± 3.5% 44% 44% – 12%
Emerson College[C] January 13–15, 2024 1,315 (RV) ± 2.6% 42% 40% 8% 11%
YouGov[A] December 1–10, 2023 1,200 (RV) ± 2.4% 43% 27% 15%[k] 15%
University of Texas at Tyler May 10–21, 2023 1,413 (RV) ± 3.0% 42% 37% 8%[l] 14%
Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation May 8–17, 2023 1,000 (RV) ± 2.9% 47% 40% 4%[m] 9%
Ted Cruz vs. Colin Allred vs. Ted Brown
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Ted
Cruz (R) 		Colin
Allred (D) 		Ted
Brown (L) 		Other Undecided
YouGov[E] June 20 – July 1, 2024 1,484 (LV) ± 2.5% 47% 44% 3% – 6%
UT Tyler June 11–20, 2024 1,144 (RV) ± 3.7% 43% 39% 5% 2%[n] 10%
931 (LV) ± 3.8% 45% 42% 5% 2%[n] 7%
Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation April 5–10, 2024 1,600 (LV) ± 2.45% 46% 41% 4% – 9%
Cygnal (R) April 4–6, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 2.9% 45% 36% 3% 2%[o] 14%
YouGov[B] January 11–24, 2024 1,145 (RV) ± 2.5% 48% 39% 4% – 9%
Hypothetical polling
Ted Cruz vs. Roland Gutierrez
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Ted
Cruz (R) 		Roland
Gutierrez (D) 		Other Undecided
YouGov[A] February 2–12, 2024 1,200 (RV) ± 3.49% 45% 31% 9% 14%
YouGov[B] January 11–24, 2024 1,145 (RV) ± 2.5% 48% 38% 4%[p] 10%
Emerson College[C] January 13–15, 2024 1,315 (RV) ± 2.6% 41% 40% 8% 11%
YouGov[A] December 1–10, 2023 1,200 (RV) ± 2.4% 42% 26% 16%[q] 17%

Results

2024 United States Senate election in Texas
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Ted Cruz (incumbent)
Democratic Colin Allred
Libertarian Ted Brown
Total votes

See also

Notes

  1. ^ a b c d e Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ $3,900 of this total was self-funded by Gonzalez
  3. ^ $6,050 of this total was self-funded by Keough
  4. ^ Steven Keough with 3%; Heli Rodriguez-Prilliman and Thierry Tchenko with 1%; Robert Hassan with 0%
  5. ^ Robert Hassan, Steven Keough, and Heli Rodriguez-Prilliman with 1%; Thierry Tchenko with 0%
  6. ^ Steven Keough, Heli Rodriguez-Prilliman, and Thierry Tchenko with 2%; Robert Hassan with 1%; "Someone else" with 8%
  7. ^ Sherri Taylor, Victor Dunn, and John Love III with 2%; Tracy Andrus, Aaron Arguijo, and Steven Keough with 1%; Teresa Naranjo, Heli Rodriguez-Prilliman, and Thierry Tchenko with 0%; "Someone else" with 1%
  8. ^ Sherri Taylor with 3%; Tracy Andrus, Steven Keough, Teresa Naranjo, and Thierry Tchenko with 2%; Aaron Arguijo, John Love III, and Heli Rodriguez-Prilliman with 1%; Victor Dunn with 0%; "Someone else" with 1%
  9. ^ John Love with 4%
  10. ^ "Someone else" with 3%
  11. ^ "Someone else" with 15%
  12. ^ "Someone else" with 7%; Refused to answer with 1%
  13. ^ Libertarian candidate with 2%; Green Party candidate with 2%
  14. ^ a b "Refused" with 2%
  15. ^ Mason Cysewski (G) with 2%
  16. ^ Ted Brown (L) with 4%
  17. ^ "Someone else" with 16%
Partisan clients
  1. ^ a b c d e f g h i j Poll sponsored by the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas
  2. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston
  3. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by Nexstar Media Group
  4. ^ Poll sponsored by American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, a group that supports Republicans.
  5. ^ Poll sponsored by the University of Houston and Texas Southern University

References

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  5. ^ "Texas Senate Election Results 2018". POLITICO. November 7, 2018. Retrieved April 16, 2023.
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  78. ^ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
  79. ^ "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.
  80. ^ "2024 Senate prediction map". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. June 8, 2024. Retrieved June 8, 2024.
  81. ^ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. August 1, 2023. Retrieved August 2, 2023.
  82. ^ "'24 Senate Forecast". CNalysis. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
  83. ^ "Endorsed Candidates". John Bolton PAC. Retrieved April 19, 2024.
  84. ^ "S. Rep. Colin Allred wins Democratic primary to face Sen. Ted Cruz in November". The Texas Tribune. March 5, 2024. Retrieved March 9, 2024.
  85. ^ a b "GIFFORDS PAC Endorses Colin Allred for US Senate". Giffords. March 7, 2024. Retrieved March 12, 2024.
  86. ^ Kurtz, Josh (July 10, 2024). "Dunn's new PAC backs 10 Democratic Senate candidates, including Alsobrooks". Maryland Matters. Maryland Matters. Retrieved July 11, 2024.
  87. ^ "Retiree Group Endorses Colin Allred for Election to U.S. Senate". Retired Americans. May 31, 2024. Retrieved June 3, 2024.
  88. ^ "Democrats Serve PAC endorses 12 new U.S. Senate and House candidates". Democrats Serve (Press release). March 13, 2024. Retrieved March 15, 2024.
Official campaign websites
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