2024 United States Senate election in Arizona: Difference between revisions
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*[https://sherifflambforsenate.com/ Mark Lamb (R) for Senate] |
*[https://sherifflambforsenate.com/ Mark Lamb (R) for Senate] |
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*[https://www.mikenortonforaz.com/ Michael Norton (G) for Senate] |
*[https://www.mikenortonforaz.com/ Michael Norton (G) for Senate] |
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*[https://www.eduardoquintana4senate.com/ Eduardo Quintana (G) for Senate] |
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{{2024 United States elections}} |
{{2024 United States elections}} |
Revision as of 07:32, 17 June 2024
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Elections in Arizona |
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The 2024 United States Senate election in Arizona will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Arizona. Primary elections will take place on July 30, 2024.[1]
Incumbent first-term independent Senator Kyrsten Sinema was first elected as a Democrat in 2018 with roughly 50% of the vote, succeeding retiring Republican Senator Jeff Flake. Sinema left the Democratic Party in December 2022 and filed paperwork to run for reelection as an independent in April 2023.[2] However, in March 2024, Sinema announced that she would not run for a second term.[3] U.S. Representative Ruben Gallego is seeking the Democratic nomination, while Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb and 2022 Republican gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake are running for the Republican nomination.
Background
The race is generally considered to be a tossup given the state's nearly even partisan lean; however, most polls and ratings have Gallego as the narrow favorite to win.[4][5]
Arizona was once considered a Republican stronghold, but has become a swing state. As of May 2024, Democrats control the governorship and the state's other U.S. Senate seat, while Republicans control both houses of the Arizona State Legislature and a 6-3 majority of Arizona's U.S. House's delegation.[6][7] Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump won Arizona by 3.5% in 2016,[8] while Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden prevailed by 0.3% in 2020.[9]
Independents
Candidates
Declined
- Kyrsten Sinema, incumbent U.S. senator (2019–present)[3]
Endorsements
- U.S. senators
- Lisa Murkowski, Alaska (2002–present) (Republican)[10]
- Individuals
- Meghan McCain, television personality and daughter of former U.S. Senator John McCain (Republican)[11]
- Organizations
Fundraising
Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Kyrsten Sinema | $17,047,387 | $7,065,565 | $10,153,343 |
Source: Federal Election Commission[13] |
Democratic primary
Prior to her departure from the Democratic Party, Sinema was considered highly vulnerable to a primary challenge due to her opposition to several parts of the Democratic Party's legislative agenda. Prospective polling showed Sinema trailing all of her potential challengers by wide margins, with U.S. Representative Ruben Gallego being viewed by numerous political analysts as the frontrunner to challenge her.[14] On January 22, 2022, the Arizona Democratic Party voted overwhelmingly to censure Sinema for a second time for voting against a carve-out to the Senate filibuster rule in a Democratic-led effort to pass the John Lewis Voting Rights Act.[15] Sinema did not support the Inflation Reduction Act until after Democratic leaders agreed to remove a provision closing the so-called carried interest tax loophole, the closure of which would have raised taxes on hedge fund owners and investment managers.[16] This action renewed calls from Democrats for Sinema to face a primary opponent in her next election.[17]
Sinema left the Democratic Party in December 2022 and registered as an independent.[2]
Candidates
Presumptive nominee
- Ruben Gallego, U.S. representative for Arizona's 3rd congressional district (2015–present)[18]
Declined
- Kate Gallego, Mayor of Phoenix (2019–present)[19] (endorsed Ruben Gallego, her ex-husband)[20]
- Greg Stanton, U.S. representative for Arizona's 4th congressional district (2019–present) and former mayor of Phoenix (2012–2018)[21] (running for re-election)[22]
Endorsements
- Federal officials
- Hillary Clinton, former U.S. Secretary of State (2009–2013)[23]
- U.S. senators
- Dennis DeConcini, Arizona (1977–1995)[24]
- Mark Kelly, Arizona (2020–present)[25]
- Chuck Schumer, New York (1999–present)[26]
- U.S. representatives
- Ron Barber, AZ-02 (2012–2015)[27]
- Gabby Giffords, AZ-08 (2007–2012)[28]
- Dan Goldman, NY-10 (2023–present)[29]
- Raúl Grijalva, AZ-07 (2003–present)[30]
- Ann Kirkpatrick, AZ-02 (2009–2011, 2013–2017, 2019–2023)[31]
- Seth Moulton, MA-06 (2015–present)[32]
- Nancy Pelosi, CA-11 (1987–present) and former Speaker of the House (2007–2011, 2019–2023)[33]
- Linda Sánchez, CA-38 (2013–present)[34]
- Statewide officials
- Katie Hobbs, Governor of Arizona (2023–present)[35]
- Anna Tovar, Arizona Corporation Commissioner (2021–present)[27]
- State legislators
- Flavio Bravo, state senator from the 26th district (2015–2019, 2023–present)[27]
- Eva Diaz, state senator from the 22nd district (2023–present)[27]
- Mitzi Epstein, Arizona Senate Minority Leader (2023–present) from the 12th district (2023–present)[36]
- Theresa Hatathlie, state senator from the 6th district (2023–present)[27]
- Catherine Miranda, state senator from the 11th district (2015–2019, 2023–present)[27]
- 7 state representatives[27]
- Local officials
- Yassamin Ansari, Phoenix city councilor (2021–present)[27]
- Kate Gallego, Mayor of Phoenix (2019–present) (candidate's ex-wife)[20]
- Regina Romero, mayor of Tucson (2019–present)[27]
- Corey Woods, mayor of Tempe (2020–present)[37]
- Individuals
- Dolores Huerta, labor leader[38]
- Political parties
- Labor unions
- Alliance for Retired Americans[40]
- Arizona AFL-CIO[41]
- Association of Flight Attendants[42]
- Communications Workers of America Arizona State Council[43]
- International Brotherhood of Teamsters Local 104[44]
- National Education Association[45]
- United Farm Workers[38]
- United Mine Workers of America[46]
- Organizations
- Brady PAC[47]
- CHC BOLD PAC[34]
- Climate Hawks Vote[48]
- Council for a Livable World[49]
- Democratic Senate Campaign Committee[26]
- End Citizens United[50]
- Feminist Majority PAC[51]
- Giffords[28]
- Human Rights Campaign[52]
- Indivisible[53]
- Jewish Democratic Council of America[54]
- Latino Victory Fund[55]
- League of Conservation Voters[56]
- Let America Vote[50]
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund[57]
- Population Connection Action Fund[58]
- Progressive Change Campaign Committee[59]
- Reproductive Freedom for All[60]
- Sierra Club[61]
- Stonewall Democrats of Arizona[62]
- Swing Left[63]
- UnidosUS[64]
- VoteVets[65]
- Tribes
Fundraising
Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Ruben Gallego | $20,818,369 | $12,446,226 | $9,648,718 |
Source: Federal Election Commission[13] |
Polling
- Ruben Gallego vs. Alexander Keller
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Ruben Gallego |
Alexander Keller |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College | August 2–4, 2023 | 571 (LV) | – | 48% | 6% | 6%[b] | 40% |
- Ruben Gallego vs. Kate Gallego vs. Kathy Hoffman vs. Regina Romero vs. Kyrsten Sinema vs. Greg Stanton
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kate Gallego |
Ruben Gallego |
Kathy Hoffman |
Regina Romero |
Kyrsten Sinema |
Greg Stanton |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Data for Progress (D) | January 21–24, 2022 | 673 (LV) | ± 4.0% | – | 74% | – | – | 16% | – | 10% |
– | 66% | – | – | 17% | – | 17% | ||||
OH Predictive Insights | November 1–8, 2021 | 229 (RV) | ± 6.5% | – | 47% | – | – | 24% | – | 29% |
– | – | 44% | – | 24% | – | 32% | ||||
– | – | – | – | 25% | 47% | 28% | ||||
Data for Progress (D)[A] | October 8–10, 2021 | 467 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 9% | 23% | – | 9% | 19% | 13% | 26% |
60% | – | – | – | 25% | – | 15% | ||||
– | 62% | – | – | 23% | – | 15% | ||||
– | – | – | 55% | 26% | – | 19% | ||||
– | – | – | – | 24% | 59% | 17% |
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Ruben Gallego | |||
Total votes |
Republican primary
Candidates
Declared
- Kari Lake, former KSAZ-TV news anchor and nominee for governor of Arizona in 2022[67]
- Mark Lamb, Pinal County Sheriff (2017–present)[68]
- Elizabeth Jean Reye, neuroscientist[69]
Declined
- Juan Ciscomani, U.S. representative for Arizona's 6th congressional district (2023–present)[70]
- Doug Ducey, governor of Arizona (2015–2023)[71]
- Abe Hamadeh, former prosecutor in the Maricopa County Attorney's office and nominee for Arizona Attorney General in 2022[72] (running for U.S. House, endorsed Lake)[73]
- Blake Masters, former president of the Thiel Foundation, former COO of Thiel Capital, and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2022[74] (running for U.S. House, endorsed Lake)[75]
- Karrin Taylor Robson, former member of the Arizona Board of Regents (2017–2021) and candidate for governor of Arizona in 2022[76]
- Kelli Ward, former state senator from the 5th district (2013–2015), former chair of the Arizona Republican Party (2019–2023), and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016 and 2018[77]
Endorsements
- U.S. presidents
- Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States (2017–2021)[78]
- U.S. senators
- John Barrasso, Wyoming (2007–present)[79]
- Marsha Blackburn, Tennessee (2019–present)[80]
- Ted Budd, North Carolina (2023–present)[81]
- John Cornyn, Texas (2002–present)[80]
- Tom Cotton, Arkansas (2015–present)[82]
- Steve Daines, Montana (2015–present)[83]
- Joni Ernst, Iowa (2015–present)[80]
- Bill Hagerty, Tennessee (2021–present)[80]
- Mike Lee, Utah (2011–present)[84]
- Roger Marshall, Kansas (2021–present)[80]
- Rand Paul, Kentucky (2011–present)[85]
- Jim Risch, Idaho (2009–present)[86]
- Eric Schmitt, Missouri (2023–present)[87]
- John Thune, South Dakota, (2005–present)[26]
- Tommy Tuberville, Alabama (2021–present)[88]
- J.D. Vance, Ohio (2023–present)[89]
- U.S. representatives
- Jim Banks, IN-03 (2017–present)[90]
- Matt Gaetz, FL-01 (2017–present)[85]
- Brian Mast, FL-21 (2017–present)[91]
- Burgess Owens, UT-04 (2021–present)[92]
- Elise Stefanik, NY-21 (2015–present)[93]
- Wesley Hunt, TX-38 (2023–present)[94]
- Statewide officials
- Doug Burgum, Governor of North Dakota (2016–present)[95]
- Ken Paxton, Texas Attorney General (2015–present)[96]
- State senators
- Wendy Rogers, state senator from SD-7 (2021–present)[97]
- Warren Petersen, president of the Arizona Senate (2023–present) from SD-14 (2021–present)[97]
- Organizations
- Citizens United PVF[98]
- Republicans for National Renewal[99]
- National Republican Senatorial Committee[100]
- Senate Conservatives Fund[101]
- Turning Point Action[102]
- Individuals
- Blake Masters, former president of the Thiel Foundation and former COO of Thiel Capital[103]
- David Bossie, president of Citizens United[98]
- Organizations
Fundraising
Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Kari Lake | $5,704,973 | $3,185,568 | $2,519,405 |
Mark Lamb | $1,589,090 | $1,335,475 | $253,615 |
Source: Federal Election Commission[13] |
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kari Lake |
Mark Lamb |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Noble Predictive Insights | May 7–14, 2024 | 364 (RV) | ± 5.14% | 46% | 21% | 9% | 25% |
Rasmussen Reports (R)[B] | February 21–26, 2024 | 469 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 55% | 26% | 7% | 12% |
Noble Predictive Insights | February 6–13, 2024 | 384 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 54% | 21% | 9%[c] | 17% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Abe Hamadeh |
Kari Lake |
Mark Lamb |
Jim Lamon |
Blake Masters |
Karrin Taylor Robson |
Brian Wright |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Noble Predictive Insights | October 25–31, 2023 | 1,010 (RV) | ± 3.1% | – | 40% | 14% | – | 10% | – | 4% | – | 33% |
Emerson College | August 2–4, 2023 | 667 (LV) | ± 3.7% | – | 42% | 11% | 2% | 7% | – | 2% | – | 28% |
J.L. Partners | April 10–12, 2023 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 4% | 38% | 8% | 3% | 7% | 10% | – | 2% | 29% |
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Kari Lake | |||
Republican | Mark Lamb | |||
Republican | Elizabeth Jean Reye | |||
Total votes |
Green primary
Candidates
Declared
- Eduardo Heredia-Quintana (write-in), chair of the Pima County Green Party[105]
- Arturo Hernandez[69]
- Michael Norton, nonprofit executive[106]
Endorsements
- Political parties
Fundraising
Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Michael Norton | $37,501 | $509 | $36,991 |
Source: Federal Election Commission[13] |
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Green | Eduardo Heredia-Quintana (write-in) | |||
Green | Arturo Hernandez | |||
Green | Michael Norton | |||
Total votes |
General election
Predictions
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[5] | Lean D (flip) | May 17, 2024 |
Inside Elections[4] | Tilt D (flip) | May 9, 2024 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[107] | Lean D (flip) | April 17, 2024 |
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[108] | Tossup | June 8, 2024 |
Elections Daily[109] | Lean D (flip) | May 17, 2024 |
CNalysis[110] | Tossup | November 21, 2023 |
Polling
- Ruben Gallego vs. Kari Lake
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Ruben Gallego (D) |
Kari Lake (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rasmussen Reports (R) | June 11–13, 2024 | 750 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 41% | 15% |
Fabrizio Ward (R)/ Impact Research (D)[C] |
May 28 – June 4, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 45% | 7% |
Mainstreet Research/ Florida Atlantic University |
May 19–21, 2024 | 609 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 38% | 18% |
501 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 39% | 13% | ||
CBS News/YouGov | May 10–16, 2024 | 1,214 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 36% | 15% |
Noble Predictive Insights | May 7–14, 2024 | 1,003 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 46% | 36% | 18% |
BSG (R)/ GS Strategy Group (D)[D] |
May 6–13, 2024 | 527 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 46% | 41% | 13% |
New York Times/ Siena College |
April 28 – May 9, 2024 | 626 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 41% | 14% |
626 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 43% | 11% | ||
Data Orbital | April 27–29, 2024 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 48% | 44% | 8% |
Emerson College/The Hill | April 25–29, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 43% | 12% |
RABA Research | April 9, 2024 | 503 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 36% | 28% | 36%[d] |
Emerson College | March 12–15, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 40% | 16% |
Rasmussen Reports (R)[B] | February 21–26, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 45% | 13% |
Emerson College[E] | February 16–19, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 39% | 15% |
Noble Predictive Insights | February 6–13, 2024 | 1,002 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 47% | 37% | 16% |
J.L. Partners (R)[F] | January 29 – February 1, 2024 | 500 (RV) | – | 44% | 46% | 10% |
Public Policy Polling (D)[G] | January 5–6, 2024 | 590 (V) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 46% | 9% |
Cygnal (R) | October 24–25, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 43% | 11% |
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[H] | October 24, 2023 | – | ± 4.4% | 49% | 44% | 7% |
National Research Inc. (R) | October 8–9, 2023 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 44% | 44% | 12% |
Public Policy Polling (D)[I] | October 6–7, 2023 | 522 (V) | ± 4.3% | 48% | 43% | 9% |
Noble Predictive Insights | July 13–17, 2023 | 1000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 45% | 35% | 20% |
OH Predictive Insights | January 31 – February 9, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 43% | 33% | 24% |
Normington Petts (D)[J] | January 18–23, 2023 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 45% | 5% |
Public Policy Polling (D)[I] | December 21, 2022 | 650 (V) | ± 3.8% | 48% | 47% | 5% |
- Ruben Gallego vs. Kari Lake vs. Kyrsten Sinema
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Ruben Gallego (D) |
Kari Lake (R) |
Kyrsten Sinema (I) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rasmussen Reports (R)[B] | February 21–26, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 33% | 37% | 21% | 2%[e] | 7% |
Emerson College[E] | February 16–19, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 36% | 30% | 21% | – | 13% |
Noble Predictive Insights | February 6–13, 2024 | 1,002 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 34% | 31% | 23% | – | 12% |
J.L. Partners (R)[F] | January 29 – February 1, 2024 | 500 (RV) | – | 39% | 40% | 13% | – | 8% |
Public Policy Polling (D)[G] | January 5–6, 2024 | 590 (V) | ± 4.0% | 36% | 35% | 17% | – | 12% |
VCreek/AMG (R)[K] | December 1–8, 2023 | 694 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 35% | 41% | 16% | 1%[f] | 7% |
Tulchin Research (D)[L] | November 13–20, 2023 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 39% | 34% | 17% | 6%[g] | 4% |
Noble Predictive Insights | October 25–31, 2023 | 1,010 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 39% | 33% | 29% | – | – |
Cygnal (R) | October 24–25, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 36% | 37% | 15% | – | 11% |
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[H] | October 24, 2023 | – | ± 4.4% | 41% | 37% | 17% | – | 5% |
National Research Inc. (R) | October 8–9, 2023 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 33% | 37% | 19% | – | 10% |
Public Policy Polling (D)[I] | October 6–7, 2023 | 522 (V) | ± 4.3% | 41% | 36% | 15% | – | 8% |
Noble Predictive Insights | July 13–17, 2023 | 1000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 34% | 25% | 26% | – | 15% |
Public Policy Polling (D)[I] | April 18–19, 2023 | 559 (V) | – | 42% | 35% | 14% | – | 9% |
OH Predictive Insights | January 31 – February 9, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 34% | 26% | 19% | – | 21% |
Normington Petts (D)[J] | January 18–23, 2023 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 36% | 36% | 24% | – | – |
Blueprint Polling (D) | January 5–8, 2023 | 618 (V) | ± 3.9% | 32% | 36% | 14% | – | 19% |
Public Policy Polling (D)[I] | December 21, 2022 | 678 (V) | ± 3.8% | 40% | 41% | 13% | – | 6% |
- Ruben Gallego vs. Kari Lake vs. "An Independent / third-party candidate"
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Ruben Gallego (D) |
Kari Lake (R) |
Generic independent |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bullfinch Group | March 29 – April 3, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 41% | 10% | 8% |
- Ruben Gallego vs. Doug Ducey vs. Kyrsten Sinema
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Ruben Gallego (D) |
Doug Ducey (R) |
Kyrsten Sinema (I) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Arizona Public Opinion Pulse/ OH Predictive Insights |
January 31 – February 9, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 38% | 34% | – | 28% |
32% | 27% | 17% | 23% | ||||
Normington Petts (D)[J] | January 18–23, 2023 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 37% | 31% | 27% | 5% |
- Ruben Gallego vs. Blake Masters vs. Kyrsten Sinema
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Ruben Gallego (D) |
Blake Masters (R) |
Kyrsten Sinema (I) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling (D)[I] | October 6–7, 2023 | 522 (V) | ± 4.3% | 41% | 31% | 17% | 11% |
Noble Predictive Insights | July 13–17, 2023 | 1000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 44% | 36% | – | 20% |
32% | 24% | 28% | 16% | ||||
Arizona Public Opinion Pulse/ OH Predictive Insights |
January 31 – February 9, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 43% | 32% | – | 26% |
33% | 24% | 22% | 21% |
- Ruben Gallego vs. Karrin Taylor-Robson vs. Kyrsten Sinema
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Ruben Gallego (D) |
Karrin Taylor Robson (R) |
Kyrsten Sinema (I) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Arizona Public Opinion Pulse/ OH Predictive Insights |
January 31 – February 9, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 36% | 32% | – | 32% |
31% | 24% | 21% | 25% |
- Ruben Gallego vs. Mark Lamb vs. Kyrsten Sinema
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Ruben Gallego (D) |
Mark Lamb (R) |
Kyrsten Sinema (I) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Noble Predictive Insights | October 25–31, 2023 | 1,010 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 36% | 32% | 32% | 0% |
Public Policy Polling (D)[I] | October 6–7, 2023 | 522 (V) | ± 4.3% | 40% | 31% | 16% | 13% |
Emerson College | August 2–4, 2023 | 1,337 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 42% | 42% | – | 16% |
36% | 29% | 21% | 15% | ||||
Noble Predictive Insights | July 13–17, 2023 | 1000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 40% | 36% | – | 24% |
33% | 25% | 24% | 18% | ||||
Public Policy Polling (D)[I] | April 18–19, 2023 | 559 (V) | – | 43% | 33% | 15% | 9% |
- Ruben Gallego vs. Jim Lamon vs. Kyrsten Sinema
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Ruben Gallego (D) |
Jim Lamon (R) |
Kyrsten Sinema (I) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling (D)[I] | April 18–19, 2023 | 559 (V) | – | 43% | 27% | 16% | 14% |
- Ruben Gallego vs. Brian Wright vs. Kyrsten Sinema
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Ruben Gallego (D) |
Brian Wright (R) |
Kyrsten Sinema (I) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College | August 2–4, 2023 | 1,337 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 41% | 38% | – | 21% |
37% | 25% | 26% | 12% |
Notes
- Partisan clients
- ^ This poll was sponsored by Primary Sinema
- ^ a b c Poll sponsored by Bull Moose Project.
- ^ Poll commissioned by AARP
- ^ Poll sponsored by The Cook Political Report.
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by The Hill.
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by Kari Lake's campaign.
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by Replace Sinema PAC.
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by NRSC.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i This poll was sponsored by Gallego's campaign
- ^ a b c This poll was sponsored by Progress Arizona, LUCHA, and Replace Sinema PAC
- ^ Poll sponsored by Americas PAC, which supports Republican candidates.
- ^ Poll conducted for Stand for Children, a non-profit education advocacy group.
References
- ^ "2024 State Primary Election Dates". www.ncsl.org. Retrieved August 6, 2023.
- ^ a b Collins, Eliza (April 7, 2023). "Kyrsten Sinema Is Preparing for a 2024 Re-Election Campaign". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved April 7, 2023.
- ^ a b Raju, Manu (March 5, 2024). "Sinema announces she's retiring". CNN. Retrieved March 5, 2024.
- ^ a b "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
- ^ a b "2024 Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
- ^ "Column: In two decades, much of the West has turned blue. Why hasn't Texas?". Los Angeles Times. December 7, 2023.
- ^ Phillips, Steve (December 1, 2022). "How Did Arizona Turn Purple—and What's Next?" – via www.thenation.com.
{{cite magazine}}
: Cite magazine requires|magazine=
(help) - ^ "2016 Presidential General Election Results - Arizona".
- ^ "Arizona certifies President-elect Biden's victory over President Trump". WBAL. November 30, 2020.
- ^ Dovere, Edward-Isaac; Raju, Manu (February 17, 2023). "Key senators torn over retirement decisions as party leaders try to fortify 2024 standing". CNN Politics. CNN. Retrieved October 30, 2023.
- ^ "'Sinema 2024': Meghan McCain blasts Kari Lake". NBC News. February 22, 2024. Retrieved February 25, 2024.
- ^ Rod, Marc (March 16, 2023). "AIPAC rolls out first 2024 endorsements, including vulnerable Senate Democrats". Jewish Insider.
- ^ a b c d "2024 Election United States Senate - Arizona". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved August 11, 2023.
- ^ Ryan O'Donnell; Gustavo Sanchez; Brian Burton (October 14, 2021). "Poll: Kyrsten Sinema Poised to Lose Democratic Primary in 2024". Data for Progress.
- ^ Treisman, Rachel (January 22, 2022). "Arizona Democrats have censured Kyrsten Sinema over her pro-filibuster vote". NPR.
- ^ Zoë Richards; Frank Thorp V; Sahil Kapur (August 4, 2022). "Sen. Kyrsten Sinema signs off on Democrats' big agenda bill, paving the way for Senate passage". CNBC. Retrieved August 29, 2022.
- ^ Kupar, Sahil (August 2, 2022). "Sinema faces conflicting pressures in Arizona on Democrats' big agenda bill". NBC. Retrieved August 29, 2022.
- ^ Lah, Kate Sullivan,Kyung (January 23, 2023). "Arizona Democrat Ruben Gallego announces Senate bid in challenge to Kyrsten Sinema". CNN. Retrieved January 23, 2023.
{{cite news}}
: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link) - ^ Alexi McCammond; Eugene Scott (January 23, 2023). "Democrat Ruben Gallego challenging Kyrsten Sinema in 2024 Senate race". Axios.
Despite speculation, Phoenix Mayor (and Gallego's ex-wife) Kate Gallego told Axios she does not intend to run for the Arizona Senate seat or for Ruben's House seat.
- ^ a b Gersony, Laura (December 18, 2023). "Ruben Gallego gets Senate endorsement from his ex-wife, Phoenix Mayor Kate Gallego". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved December 18, 2023.
- ^ "Greg Stanton said he will not run for Arizona's Senate seat in 2024. All eyes are now on Ruben Gallego and Kyrsten Sinema". Politico. January 19, 2023. Retrieved January 20, 2023.
- ^ Frisk, Garrett (July 21, 2023). "We Asked Every Member of the House if They're Running in 2024. Here's What They Said". Diamond Eye Candidate Report. Retrieved July 21, 2023.
- ^ "Kari Lake Trolls Hillary Clinton For Endorsing "Her Perfect Patsy"". 2paragraphs. Retrieved March 22, 2024.
- ^ Fischer, Howie; Roberts, Laurie; Duda, Jeremy (January 27, 2023). "Journalist's Roundtable: Ruben Gallego runs for Senate". Arizona PBS. Retrieved February 9, 2023.
- ^ Hansen, Ronald J. (March 6, 2024). "Mark Kelly endorses Ruben Gallego for US Senate after Kyrsten Sinema bows out". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved March 6, 2024.
- ^ a b c Hansen, Ronald J. (March 6, 2024). "Kari Lake picks up support from a Senate GOP leader as Democrats get behind Ruben Gallego". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved March 6, 2024.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i Fernández, Caleb J. (November 13, 2023). "Mayor Regina Romero endorses Ruben Gallego for U.S. Senate". KGUN-TV 9. Retrieved November 13, 2023.
- ^ a b "GIFFORDS PAC Endorses Ruben Gallego for US Senate". Giffords. March 13, 2024. Retrieved March 15, 2024.
- ^ Schnell, Mychael (April 6, 2023). "Rep. Dan Goldman endorses Gallego for Senate". KXAN. Retrieved April 6, 2023.
- ^ Bridget Bowman; Ben Kamisar; Alexandra Marquez (January 26, 2023). "Eyes on 2024: Mitch Daniels weighs life as a senator". Meet the Press Blog. NBC News. Retrieved January 31, 2023.
- ^ Altimari, Daniela; McIntire, Mary Ellen; Ackley, Kate (February 2, 2023). "At the Races: Cash course". CQ Roll Call. Retrieved February 9, 2023.
- ^ McIntire, Mary Ellen; Ackley, Kate; Altimari, Daniela; Lesniewski, Niels (March 2, 2023). "At the Races: Back to the future". Roll Call. Retrieved March 2, 2023.
- ^ Santaliz, Kate (June 27, 2023). "Ex-Speaker Pelosi to headline a fundraiser for Democrat seeking Sen. Sinema's seat". NBC News. Retrieved June 28, 2023.
- ^ a b Bernal, Rafael (May 9, 2023). "Hispanic Caucus campaign arm formally endorses Gallego for Senate". KGET-TV 12. Retrieved May 9, 2023.
- ^ Rivera, SuElen (March 11, 2024). "Arizona governor endorses Ruben Gallego for 2024 Senate race". KPNX. Retrieved March 11, 2024.
- ^ Picciuolo, Chris (January 23, 2024). "Salt River Pima-Maricopa Indian Community Endorses Ruben Gallego for U.S. Senate". Tohono Oʼodham Nation Action News. Retrieved February 5, 2024.
- ^ Bender, Michael C. (February 3, 2023). "Kari Lake, Still Refusing to Accept Defeat in One Race, Teases Arizona Senate Run". The New York Times. Retrieved March 2, 2023.
- ^ a b Bernal, Rafael (April 24, 2024). "Gallego nabs two key Latino endorsements". The Hill. Retrieved April 26, 2024.
- ^ Kapur, Sahil; Bland, Scott (October 19, 2023). "Arizona Democrats back Ruben Gallego with donation ahead of Sinema Senate race". NBC News. Retrieved February 14, 2024.
- ^ "Retiree Group Endorses Ruben Gallego for the U.S. Senate". Retired Americans. May 20, 2024. Retrieved May 26, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Candidate Endorsements | Arizona AFL-CIO". azaflcio.org. Retrieved May 10, 2024.
- ^ "AFA Endorsed Candidates for 2024 Election". Association of Flight Attendants-CWA. Retrieved April 29, 2024.
- ^ "CWA Arizona State Council Endorses Rep. Ruben Gallego for U.S. Senate". Communications Workers of America. January 30, 2023. Retrieved January 31, 2023.
- ^ "Teamsters Endorse Ruben Gallego in Arizona Senate Race". Yahoo Finance. PR Newswire. January 30, 2023. Retrieved January 31, 2023.
- ^ "OUR RECOMMENDED CANDIDATES". Retrieved November 15, 2023.
- ^ "Arizona - COMPAC Endorsements". United Mine Workers of America. Retrieved April 2, 2024.
- ^ "Brady PAC Endorses Ruben Gallego for U.S. Senate". Brady PAC. March 19, 2024. Retrieved March 25, 2024.
- ^ "We do not endorse mediocre Democrats". Climate Hawks Vote. Retrieved June 21, 2023.
- ^ "Senate Candidates". Council for a Livable World. Retrieved October 4, 2023.
- ^ a b Gans, Jared (May 16, 2023). "Liberal group endorsing Gallego after backing Sinema". The Hill. Retrieved May 16, 2023.
- ^ "2024 – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org. Retrieved February 9, 2024.
- ^ "Human Rights Campaign PAC Endorses Ruben Gallego for U.S. Senate". April 2024.
- ^ "Indivisible Endorses Ruben Gallego in the Arizona Senate Race". Indivisible. February 14, 2024. Retrieved February 14, 2024.
- ^ "Jewish Dems Endorse in Key House and Senate Races, Pledge Resources to Mobilize Jewish Voters". Jewish Democratic Council of America. March 28, 2023.
- ^ Benavides, Sindy M. (March 14, 2024). "Latino Victory Fund Endorses Ruben Gallego in historic election to the U.S. Senate". Latino Victory. Retrieved March 14, 2024.
- ^ "LCV Action Fund Endorses Ruben Gallego for Senate". League of Conservation Voters. Archived from the original on September 27, 2023. Retrieved September 27, 2023.
- ^ "ENDORSEMENT ALERT: Planned Parenthood Action Fund Backs Candidates in Key Senate Races". www.plannedparenthoodaction.org. Retrieved March 25, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Endorsements". Population Connection Action Fund. Retrieved February 21, 2024.
- ^ "AZ-Sen: "I'm one of the first members of Congress to endorse Ruben Gallego (D). Here's why."". Daily Kos. April 10, 2023. Retrieved April 22, 2023.
- ^ Santaliz, Kate (October 4, 2023). "Rep. Ruben Gallego snags support from abortion-rights group that once backed Kyrsten Sinema". NBC News. Archived from the original on October 4, 2023. Retrieved October 4, 2023.
- ^ "2024 Endorsements | Sierra Club Independent Action". www.sierraclubindependentaction.org.
- ^ "Stonewall Dems of AZ". Stonewall Democrats of Arizona. Retrieved October 17, 2023.
- ^ "Make a high-impact donation—without all the usual drama". Swing Left.
- ^ "UnidosUS Action Fund announces endorsement of Biden, Harris, and Democratic candidates Ruben Gallego, Raquel Terán and Kirsten Engel". UnidosUS Action Fund. Retrieved May 16, 2024.
- ^ "VoteVets PAC Endorses Gallego for Arizona Senate". VoteVets. March 27, 2023. Retrieved March 28, 2023.
- ^ a b Fischer, Morgan (February 5, 2024). "'Go everywhere and talk to everyone': How Ruben Gallego is reaching out to tribal voters". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved February 5, 2024.
- ^ Cathey, Libby (October 10, 2023). "Kari Lake launches Arizona Senate campaign after narrow gubernatorial loss". ABC News. Retrieved October 11, 2023.
- ^ MacDonald-Evoy, Jerod (April 11, 2023). "Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb enters U.S. Senate race to challenge Kyrsten Sinema". Arizona Mirror. States Newsroom. Retrieved October 16, 2023.
- ^ a b "Candidate Nominations and Petitions filed". Arizona Secretary of State. March 30, 2024.
- ^ Hansen, Ronald (March 26, 2023). "Which Republicans will run for Sen. Kyrsten Sinema's seat? What we know". The Arizona Republic. Archived from the original on March 26, 2023.
Ciscomani told The Republic recently that he was still learning his way around the U.S. Capitol as a freshman in the House and denied an interest in running for the Senate next year.
- ^ Al Weaver (December 18, 2022). "Why the GOP has Ducey at the top of its Senate candidate wish list". The Hill.
Ducey last week told reporters in his home state that he is 'not running for the United States Senate.'
- ^ Manu Raju; Alayna Treene (April 10, 2023). "Senate Republicans confront 2024 primary challenges and Trump's influence". CNN Politics.
Abe Hamadeh, formerly the Republican nominee for Arizona attorney general, is also weighing a run.
- ^ "Arizona Rep. Debbie Lesko says she won't seek reelection, Abe Hamadeh to run for her seat". KTVK. October 17, 2023. Retrieved October 17, 2023.
- ^ Collins, Eliza (August 30, 2023). "Blake Masters Plans to Enter Race for Kyrsten Sinema's Senate Seat". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved August 30, 2023.
- ^ Gersony, Laura (October 26, 2023). "Arizona Republican Blake Masters announces run for Debbie Lesko's 8th District seat". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved October 26, 2023.
- ^ "Republican Karrin Taylor Robson says she won't run for Sinema's Senate seat in Arizona". The Hill. May 25, 2023.
- ^ Otterbein, Holly; Everett, Burgess; Mutnick, Ally (February 1, 2023). "Arizona Republicans fear they may blow it again". Politico. Retrieved February 1, 2023.
One candidate who has ruled out a run is Kelli Ward, former chair of the Arizona Republican Party. She told POLITICO she was not looking at another Senate bid
- ^ Swan, Jonathan; Haberman, Maggie; Ulloa, Jazmine (October 10, 2023). "Trump Endorses Kari Lake's Senate Run in Arizona". The New York Times. Retrieved October 11, 2023.
- ^ Mutnick, Ally (October 16, 2023). "Kari Lake locks down a key GOP establishment endorsement". POLITICO. Archived from the original on October 16, 2023. Retrieved October 16, 2023.
- ^ a b c d e Thomas, Steff (March 1, 2024). "Lake nabs endorsements from Ernst, Risch, Cornyn in Arizona Senate race". The Hill. Retrieved March 2, 2024.
- ^ Mondeaux, Cami (March 19, 2024). "More than half of GOP senators back Kari Lake as she nabs another endorsement". Washington Examiner. Retrieved March 19, 2024.
- ^ Gillespie, Brandon (December 11, 2023). "Key McConnell ally makes endorsement in crucial swing state race that could flip Senate red". Fox News. Retrieved December 11, 2023.
- ^ Daines, Steve (February 13, 2024). "NRSC Chair Daines Endorses Kari Lake". NRSC. Retrieved February 13, 2024.
- ^ Tonco, Brigham (March 7, 2024). "Sen. Mike Lee endorses Kari Lake for U.S. Senate in Arizona". Deseret News. Retrieved March 7, 2024.
- ^ a b Vakil, Caroline (February 12, 2024). "Rand Paul, Gaetz endorse Kari Lake in Arizona Senate race". Retrieved February 16, 2024.
- ^ Downs, Rebecca (March 1, 2024). "Townhall Has Learned That Senator Risch Has Endorsed Kari Lake for Senate in Arizona". townhall.com. Retrieved March 1, 2024.
- ^ Mondeaux, Cami (March 12, 2024). "Kari Lake pulls in more support with Eric Schmitt as latest endorsement - Washington Examiner". Retrieved March 12, 2024.
- ^ Joseph, Jamie (January 22, 2024). "Sens. Tuberville and Marshall endorse Trump-backed Arizona Republican Kari Lake for Senate". Fox News.
- ^ Vakil, Caroline (February 27, 2024). "Vance endorses Lake in Arizona Senate race". The Hill. Retrieved February 27, 2024.
- ^ Gillespie, Brandon (November 2, 2023). "Kari Lake builds momentum with more big-name backing in race to flip Arizona Senate seat". Fox News. Archived from the original on November 2, 2023. Retrieved November 2, 2023.
- ^ Mondeaux, Cami (January 19, 2024). "Kari Lake nabs another endorsement from House conservative in pivotal Senate race". Washington Examiner. Retrieved January 24, 2024.
- ^ Bates, Suzanne (October 24, 2023). "Rep. Burgess Owens endorses Arizona's Kari Lake for Senate". Deseret News. Retrieved October 24, 2023.
- ^ Hansen, Ronald (November 15, 2023). "Kari Lake picks up support of No. 3 House Republican in sign the GOP is getting behind her". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved November 16, 2023.
Stefanik, R-N.Y., who is the House Republican conference chair, said the Lake endorsement by her political action committee is the first for the Senate this election cycle.
- ^ Husebø, Wendell (February 29, 2024). "Wesley Hunt Endorses Kari Lake for U.S. Senate". Breitbart. Retrieved March 7, 2024.
"Kari Lake is an outsider and fighter who will work to secure the border and put Arizonans First," he added. "I am excited to endorse Kari for the Senate in Arizona to bring much needed change to Washington."
- ^ Crisp, Elizabeth (May 24, 2024). "Trump VP prospect Doug Burgum endorses Kari Lake in Arizona Senate race". The Hill. Retrieved May 24, 2024.
- ^ Gersony, Laura (November 1, 2023). "Kari Lake touts endorsement from Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who faces fraud trial". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved November 1, 2023.
- ^ a b Hansen, Ronald (October 10, 2023). "'This mama bear has a whole lot of fight in her': Kari Lake enters Arizona's Senate race". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved October 11, 2023.
- ^ a b CUPVF (January 23, 2024). "David N. Bossie and Citizens United Political Victory Fund Endorse Kari Lake for U.S. Senate from Arizona". Citizens United Political Victory Fund. Retrieved January 24, 2024.
- ^ "Republicans for National Renewal Endorses Kari Lake for U.S. Senate". Republicans for National Renewal. October 26, 2023. Archived from the original on October 26, 2023. Retrieved October 26, 2023.
- ^ Mutnick, Ally (February 13, 2024). "Senate GOP campaign arm endorses Kari Lake". POLITICO.
- ^ "Senate Conservatives Fund". www.senateconservatives.com. Retrieved April 2, 2024.
- ^ "Endorsements". Turning Point Action. Retrieved December 14, 2023.
- ^ Stone, Kevin. "Blake Masters says he shifted 2024 focus from Senate to House after talking to Trump, Lake". KTAR.
President Trump wanted Kari to run, and I think she's running a hell of a campaign so far, so I look forward to supporting her.
- ^ Gutierrez, Marco. "Primary Campaign Corner 2024: Candidates". Latinos for America First. Archived from the original on September 15, 2023. Retrieved September 15, 2023.
- ^ a b "Green Party candidates for Senate in Arizona draw suspicion of being plants". gp.org.
- ^ "Arizona race for US Senate seat features highly watched battles". Daily Independent. April 17, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. April 17, 2023. Retrieved April 17, 2023.
- ^ "2024 Senate prediction map". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. June 8, 2024. Retrieved June 8, 2024.
- ^ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. August 1, 2023. Retrieved August 2, 2023.
- ^ "'24 Senate Forecast". CNalysis. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
External links
- Official campaign websites