Wikipedia

2024 United States presidential election in New York

Main article: 2024 United States presidential election

The 2024 United States presidential election in New York was held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. New York voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of New York had 28 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state lost a seat.[1]

2024 United States presidential election in New York
← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
Turnout58.6% (Decrease 11.1 pp)
 
Nominee Kamala Harris Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Alliance Working Families Conservative
Home state California Florida
Running mate Tim Walz JD Vance
Projected electoral vote 28 0
Popular vote 4,619,195 3,578,899
Percentage 55.91% 43.31%
President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

New Yorkers voting in a polling location near Lincoln Square

Though it remained comfortably Democratic, New York swung the hardest to the right out of every state in the nation from the 2020 election, with Trump greatly improving his performance by winning 43.31% of the state's vote, compared to 36.75% in the 2016 election and 37.74% in 2020. All counties in the state except for Yates and Tompkins swung to the right. New York follows a trend of blue states, such as Massachusetts, New Jersey, Illinois and California shifting red.[2][3]

Polling had indicated a potentially closer race in New York in 2024 than in 2016 or 2020, but Democrats still consistently led by margins well outside the margin of error.[4][5] Nonetheless, Trump's performance in New York was the strongest of any Republican presidential candidate since Vice President George H. W. Bush lost by just 4.1 points in the 1988 election.[6] It is also the first presidential election since 1956 in which New York voted more Republican than Washington state, the first since 1960 when New York voted more Republican than Connecticut, and the first since 1980 when New York voted more Republican than Delaware.

Primary elections

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Democratic primary

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Main article: 2024 New York Democratic presidential primary

The 2024 New York Democratic presidential primary was held on April 2, 2024, alongside primaries in Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Wisconsin.

New York Democratic primary, April 2, 2024[7]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Pledged Unpledged Total
Joe Biden (incumbent) 288,138 80.7% 268 268
Marianne Williamson 15,573 4.4%
Dean Phillips (withdrawn) 11,309 3.2%
Blank ballots 41,113 11.5%
Void ballots 903 0.3%
Total: 357,036 100.0% 268 38 306

Primary polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden 		Different
Candidate 		Undecided
Siena College[8] Sep 10–13, 2023 804 (RV) ± 4.3% 54% 40% 6%
Siena College[9] Aug 13–16, 2023 803 (RV) ± 4.4% 47% 46% 7%
Siena College[10] Jun 20–25, 2023 817 (RV) ± 3.9% 54% 40% 6%
Siena College[11] May 7–11, 2023 810 (RV) ± 4.1% 56% 40% 4%
Siena College[12] Mar 19–22, 2023 802 (RV) ± 4.6% 43% 51% 7%

Republican primary

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Main article: 2024 New York Republican presidential primary

The New York Republican primary was held on April 2, 2024, alongside the Connecticut primary.

New York Republican primary, April 2, 2024[13]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 132,698 81.2% 91 91
Nikki Haley (withdrawn) 21,145 12.9%
Chris Christie (withdrawn) 6,679 4.1%
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) 1,667 1.0%
Blank or void ballots 1,311 0.8%
Total: 163,500 100.0% 91 91

General election

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Only two candidates appeared on the ballot in New York: Kamala Harris (under the Democratic and Working Families Party tickets) and Donald Trump (under the Republican and New York Conservative Party tickets).[14] Robert F. Kennedy Jr. did not appear on the ballot in New York[15] after Judge Christina Ryba of the 3rd New York Judicial District[16] ruled that he falsely listed his place of residence as Katonah, New York but actually lived in Los Angeles.[17]

The state authorized votes for 12 write-in candidates:[18]

These electors were nominated by each party in order to vote in the Electoral College should their candidate win the state:[20]

Kamala Harris and
Tim Walz
Democratic Party
Working Families Party 		Donald Trump and
JD Vance
Republican Party
Conservative Party
Kathy Hochul
Jay Jacobs
Eric Adams
Mohammed Akber Alam
Stuart Appelbaum
Byron Brown
Mario Cliento
Michelle Crentsil
Antonio Delgado
Thomas DiNapoli
Hazel Dukes
Thomas J. Garry
Vanessa Gibson
George Gresham
Carl Heastie
Letitia James
Gary LaBarbera
Carolyn Maloney
Luis Miranda
Crystal Peoples-Stokes
Christine Quinn
Katherine Sheehan
Anastasia Somoza
Andrea Stewart-Cousins
Gerard J. Sweeney
Sandra Ung
Latrice Walker
Randi Weingarten 		Edward F. Cox
William Barclay
Bruce Blakeman
Joe Borelli
Karl Brabenec
John Burnett
Joe Cairo
Andrea Catsimatidis
Benjamin Federman
Jesse Garcia
Mark Heberling
Michael Kracker
Michael McCormack
Steven McLaughlin
Tim McNulty
Anthony Nunziato
Rob Ortt
Patrick Reilly
Michael Rendino
Jennifer Rich
Sylvia Rowan
Christopher Tague
Trish Turner
Joseph Whalen
Lee Zeldin
Ralph Lorigo
Donald Mazzullo
Michael Torres

Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report[21] Solid D December 19, 2023
Inside Elections[22] Solid D April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[23] Safe D June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[24] Safe D December 14, 2023
CNalysis[25] Solid D December 30, 2023
CNN[26] Solid D January 14, 2024
The Economist[27] Safe D June 12, 2024
538[28] Solid D August 23, 2024
RCP[29] Solid D June 26, 2024
NBC News[30] Safe D October 6, 2024

Polling

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Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
Research Co.[31] November 2–3, 2024 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 57% 41% 2%
ActiVote[32] October 7–27, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 59% 41% –
Siena College[33] October 13–17, 2024 872 (LV) ± 4.1% 58% 39% 3%
ActiVote[34] September 4–30, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 61% 39% –
Emerson College[35][A] September 23–25, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 54% 40% 6%[b]
Siena College[36] September 11–16, 2024 1,003 (LV) ± 4.3% 55% 42% 3%
August 23, 2024 Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump.
August 22, 2024 Democratic National Convention concludes
ActiVote[37] August 1–21, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 58% 42% –
August 19, 2024 Democratic National Convention begins
August 6, 2024 Kamala Harris selects Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate.
Siena College[38] July 28 – August 1, 2024 1,199 (LV) ± 4.0% 53% 39% 8%
July 21, 2024 Joe Biden announces his official withdrawal from the race; Kamala Harris declares her candidacy for president.
SoCal Strategies (R)[39][B] July 18–19, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 52% 41% 7%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Chase
Oliver
Libertarian 		Other /
Undecided
Siena College[36] September 11–16, 2024 1,003 (LV) ± 4.3% 52% 40% 1% 2% 0% 5%
Hypothetical polling with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Chase
Oliver
Libertarian 		Other /
Undecided
Siena College[33] October 13–17, 2024 872 (LV) ± 4.1% 54% 37% 0% 1% 1% 1% 6%[c]
Siena College[38] July 28 – August 1, 2024 1,199 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 37% 7% 1% 2% 1% 10%
Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
SoCal Strategies (R)[39][B] July 18–19, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 52% 41% 7%
Siena College[40] June 12–13 & 16–17, 2024 805 (RV) ± 4.1% 47% 39% 14%
Emerson College[41][C] May 28–29, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 48% 41% 11%
55%[d] 45% –
Siena College[42] May 13–15, 2024 1,191 (RV) ± 3.9% 47% 38% 15%
Slingshot Strategies (D)[43] May 2–3, 2024 1,059 (RV) ± 5.0% 56% 37% 17%
John Zogby Strategies[44][D] April 13–21, 2024 749 (LV) – 48% 42% 10%
Siena College[45] April 15–17, 2024 806 (RV) ± 4.1% 47% 37% 16%
Siena College[46] February 12–14, 2024 806 (RV) ± 4.2% 48% 36% 16%
Siena College[47] January 14–17, 2024 807 (RV) ± 4.5% 46% 37% 17%
Siena College[48] November 12–15, 2023 803 (RV) ± 4.6% 46% 36% 18%
Siena College[49] October 15–19, 2023 1,225 (RV) ± 3.4% 46% 37% 17%
Siena College[50] September 10–13, 2023 804 (RV) ± 4.3% 52% 31% 17%
Siena College[9] August 13–16, 2023 803 (RV) ± 4.4% 47% 34% 19%
Siena College[10] June 20–25, 2023 817 (RV) ± 3.9% 50% 28% 21%
SurveyUSA[51][E] November 3–6, 2022 918 (RV) ± 4.1% 46% 34% 20%
Emerson College[52][C] October 20–24, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 40% 13%
SurveyUSA[53][F] October 14–18, 2022 1,018 (RV) ± 4.4% 42% 37% 21%
Emerson College[54] September 4–6, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 53% 37% 10%
SurveyUSA[55][E] August 17–21, 2022 715 (LV) ± 4.6% 49% 29% 22%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[56] August 7–9, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 52% 40% 8%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
Siena College[46] February 12–14, 2024 806 (RV) ± 4.2% 42% 32% 13% 6% 7%
Siena College[47] January 14–17, 2024 807 (RV) ± 4.5% 41% 32% 13% 3% 11%
Siena College[48] November 12–15, 2023 803 (RV) ± 4.6% 37% 28% 18% 5% 11%
Siena College[49] October 15–19, 2023 1,225 (RV) ± 3.4% 38% 31% 13% 5% 12%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Other /
Undecided
Emerson College[41][C] May 28–29, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 44% 38% 6% 2% 1% 9%
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[44][D] April 13–21, 2024 749 (LV) – 44% 44% 12%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[44][D] April 13–21, 2024 749 (LV) – 45% 39% 16%

Results

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2024 United States presidential election in New York[57]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic
4,341,375 52.54%   3.84%
Working Families
277,820 3.36%   1.12%
Total
4,619,195 55.91%   4.96%
Republican
3,257,166 39.42%   5.12%
Conservative
321,733 3.89%   0.45%
Total
3,578,899 43.31%   5.57%
Write-in 64,401 0.78%   0.74%
Total votes 8,262,495 100.00% N/A

By county

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County Kamala Harris
Democratic 		Donald Trump
Republican 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # % # %
Albany 92,589 61.32% 54,560 36.13% 3,856 2.55% 38,029 25.19% 151,005
Allegany 5,483 27.88% 13,826 70.29% 360 1.83% -8,343 -42.41% 19,669
Bronx 261,670 71.23% 98,174 26.73% 7,502 2.04% 163,496 44.50% 367,346
Broome 45,142 49.16% 44,763 48.75% 1,918 2.09% 379 0.41% 91,823
Cattaraugus 11,424 33.09% 22,586 65.42% 515 1.49% -11,162 -32.33% 34,525
Cayuga 15,772 42.88% 20,482 55.68% 531 1.44% -4,710 -12.80% 36,785
Chautauqua 22,085 38.39% 34,528 60.03% 908 1.58% -12,443 -21.64% 57,521
Chemung 15,572 40.98% 21,861 57.52% 570 1.50% -6,289 -16.54% 38,003
Chenango 8,177 35.90% 14,294 62.76% 305 1.34% -6,117 -26.86% 22,776
Clinton 17,478 48.23% 18,247 50.35% 513 1.42% -769 -2.12% 36,238
Columbia 20,396 56.15% 15,168 41.76% 762 2.10% 5,228 14.39% 36,326
Cortland 10,290 46.08% 11,706 52.42% 334 1.50% -1,416 -6.34% 22,330
Delaware 9,237 39.47% 13,789 58.92% 375 1.60% -4,552 -19.45% 23,401
Dutchess 79,994 51.75% 71,778 46.44% 2,803 1.81% 8,216 5.31% 154,575
Erie 248,651 53.64% 204,774 44.17% 10,154 2.19% 43,877 9.47% 463,579
Essex 9,629 49.31% 9,533 48.81% 367 1.88% 96 0.50% 19,529
Franklin 8,821 44.86% 10,569 53.75% 272 1.38% -1,748 -8.89% 19,662
Fulton 7,666 31.69% 16,237 67.12% 288 1.19% -8,571 -35.43% 24,191
Genesee 9,367 32.50% 18,997 65.91% 457 1.59% -9,630 -33.41% 28,821
Greene 10,436 40.63% 14,702 57.23% 550 2.14% -4,266 -16.60% 25,688
Hamilton 1,211 35.18% 2,223 64.58% 8 0.23% -1,012 -29.40% 3,442
Herkimer 9,110 31.39% 19,557 67.38% 357 1.23% -10,447 -35.99% 29,024
Jefferson 16,326 37.69% 26,417 60.99% 568 1.31% -10,091 -23.30% 43,311
Kings 601,265 69.76% 233,964 27.14% 26,681 3.10% 367,301 42.62% 861,910
Lewis 3,600 27.18% 9,353 70.61% 293 2.21% -5,753 -43.43% 13,246
Livingston 12,148 38.61% 18,780 59.69% 533 1.69% -6,632 -21.08% 31,461
Madison 14,629 42.69% 19,025 55.52% 611 1.78% -4,396 -12.83% 34,265
Monroe 214,757 58.30% 145,940 39.62% 7,646 2.08% 68,817 18.68% 368,343
Montgomery 7,356 35.16% 13,286 63.50% 280 1.34% -5,930 -28.34% 20,922
Nassau 338,424 46.84% 368,117 50.94% 16,045 2.22% -29,693 -4.10% 722,586
New York 533,782 80.08% 113,921 17.09% 18,896 2.83% 419,861 62.99% 666,599
Niagara 43,438 41.94% 58,678 56.65% 1,457 1.41% -15,240 -14.71% 103,573
Oneida 39,415 38.82% 60,687 59.77% 1,425 1.40% -21,272 -20.95% 101,527
Onondaga 133,155 57.47% 93,916 40.53% 4,636 2.00% 39,239 16.94% 231,707
Ontario 29,520 48.54% 30,221 49.69% 1,073 1.76% -701 -1.15% 60,814
Orange 80,253 44.96% 94,936 53.18% 3,317 1.86% -14,683 -8.22% 178,506
Orleans 5,366 29.32% 12,659 69.17% 276 1.51% -7,293 -39.85% 18,301
Oswego 20,483 37.44% 33,548 61.32% 681 1.24% -13,065 -23.88% 54,712
Otsego 13,031 45.27% 15,256 53.00% 496 1.72% -2,225 -7.73% 28,783
Putnam 23,956 42.46% 31,553 55.92% 912 1.62% -7,597 -13.46% 56,421
Queens 437,282 60.57% 264,628 36.66% 20,027 2.77% 172,654 23.91% 721,937
Rensselaer 39,668 49.74% 38,601 48.40% 1,483 1.86% 1,067 1.34% 79,752
Richmond 69,345 34.40% 128,151 63.57% 4,088 2.03% -58,806 -29.17% 201,584
Rockland 65,880 43.27% 83,543 54.87% 2,826 1.86% -17,663 -11.60% 152,249
Totals 3,663,279 % 2,647,534 % 147,955 % 1,015,745 % 6,458,768
 
 

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

See also

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Notes

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  1. ^ a b c d e f g h i Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ "Someone else" with 3%
  3. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  4. ^ With voters who lean towards a given candidate

Partisan clients

  1. ^ Poll sponsored by WPIX-TV
  2. ^ a b Poll sponsored by On Point Politics
  3. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by Nexstar Media Group
  4. ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
  5. ^ a b Poll sponsored by WNYT-TV
  6. ^ Poll sponsored by WHEC-TV & WNYT-TV

References

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  51. ^ "Majorities of NY Voters Feel Less Safe Today Than One Year Ago, Believe Cashless Bail Causing Crime to Increase; Strong Support For Gun Reform; Inflation, Abortion Remain Top Issues in Election; Voters Give Slim Advantage to Republican Party on Reducing Crime, Improving the Economy". SurveyUSA. November 7, 2022.
  52. ^ Mumford, Camille (October 28, 2022). "New York 2022: Hochul's Lead Over Zeldin Tightens; Independent Voters Flip Toward Zeldin". Emerson Polling.
  53. ^ "GOP Appears to be Having a Moment in New York as Biden Approval Falls, Trump Closes Gap in Hypothetical 2024 Rematch". SurveyUSA. October 19, 2022.
  54. ^ Mumford, Camille (September 9, 2022). "New York 2022: Hochul Maintains Double-Digit Lead Over Zeldin; Biden's Approval Increases 10 Points Among Young Voters". Emerson Polling.
  55. ^ "11 Weeks To NY Election, Incumbent Dem Kathy Hochul Holds Wide Lead Over GOP's Zeldin; Candidates Tie Among Those Focused on Inflation". SurveyUSA. August 22, 2022.
  56. ^ Campanile, Carl (August 11, 2022). "Lee Zeldin in striking distance of Kathy Hochul, voters tired of Chuck Schumer: poll". The New York Post.
  57. ^ "Certified November 5, 2024 General Election Results, approved 12.09.2024". Ny.gov. Retrieved December 9, 2024.
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