Where Are We Going Now? The Current and Future Distributions of the Monk Parakeet (Myiopsitta monachus) and Eurasian Collared Dove (Streptopelia decaocto) in a Megalopolis
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Area
2.2. Occurrence Records for Species
2.3. Current and Future Climatic Scenarios
2.4. Ecological Niche and Species Distribution Models
2.5. Risk of Expansion
3. Results
3.1. Ecological Models and Geographical Distribution Patterns
3.2. Distribution Patterns Under Climate Change Scenarios
3.3. Risk of Expansion into Agricultural Areas and PAs
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Species | Variable | Description | Percent Contribution (%) | Permutation Importance (%) |
---|---|---|---|---|
Myiopsitta monachus | Bio01 | Annual mean temperature | 0.4 | 3.2 |
Bio02 | Mean diurnal range | 4.0 | 4.0 | |
Bio03 | Isothermality | 52.1 | 0.4 | |
Bio05 | Max temperature of warmest month | 14.6 | 22.8 | |
Bio06 | Min temperature of coldest month | 1.3 | 15.1 | |
Bio11 | Mean temperature of coldest quarter | 17.4 | 44.0 | |
Bio12 | Annual precipitation | 10.2 | 10.6 | |
Streptopelia decaocto | Bio02 | Mean diurnal range | 35.4 | 24.5 |
Bio03 | Isothermality | 8.6 | 5.2 | |
Bio06 | Min temperature of coldest month | 17.5 | 14.3 | |
Bio10 | Mean temperature of warmest quarter | 10.5 | 8.1 | |
Bio12 | Annual precipitation | 14.5 | 21.1 | |
Bio14 | Precipitation of driest month | 5.9 | 10.8 | |
Bio15 | Precipitation seasonality | 7.6 | 16.0 |
Species | IPSL-CM6A-LR | GFDL-ESM4 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Current | SSP 126 | SSP 370 | SSP 585 | SSP 126 | SSP 370 | SSP 585 | |
Myiopsitta monachus | 5642 | 5809 | 5834 | 5486 | 4273 | 5190 | 5273 |
(71%) | (73%) | (73%) | (69%) | (54%) | (65%) | (66%) | |
Streptopelia decaocto | 5489 | 5576 | 5480 | 5518 | 5134 | 5265 | 5506 |
(69%) | (70%) | (69%) | (69%) | (64%) | (66%) | (69%) |
Species | IPSL-CM6A-LR | GFDL-ESM4 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Current | SSP 126 | SSP 370 | SSP 585 | SSP 126 | SSP 370 | SSP 585 | ||
Myiopsitta monachus | Stable | 5642 (100%) | 5642 (100%) | 5642 (100%) | 5486 (97%) | 4273 (76%) | 5190 (92%) | 5273 (93%) |
Gain | 167 (+3%) | 192 (+3%) | - | - | - | - | ||
Loss | - | - | 156 (−3%) | 1369 (−24%) | 452 (−8%) | 369 (−6%) | ||
Streptopelia decaocto | Stable | 5489 (100%) | 5482 (100%) | 5455 (99%) | 5455 (99%) | 5134 (93%) | 5265 (96%) | 4768 (88%) |
Gain | 94 (+2%) | 15 (+0.3%) | 63 (+1%) | - | - | 738 (+13%) | ||
Loss | 7 (−0.1%) | 19 (−0.3%) | 34 (−0.6%) | 355 (−6%) | 224 (−4%) | 721 (−13%) |
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Ramírez-Albores, J.E.; Sánchez-González, L.A.; Prieto-Torres, D.A.; Navarro-Sigüenza, A.G. Where Are We Going Now? The Current and Future Distributions of the Monk Parakeet (Myiopsitta monachus) and Eurasian Collared Dove (Streptopelia decaocto) in a Megalopolis. Sustainability 2024, 16, 7071. https://doi.org/10.3390/su16167071
Ramírez-Albores JE, Sánchez-González LA, Prieto-Torres DA, Navarro-Sigüenza AG. Where Are We Going Now? The Current and Future Distributions of the Monk Parakeet (Myiopsitta monachus) and Eurasian Collared Dove (Streptopelia decaocto) in a Megalopolis. Sustainability. 2024; 16(16):7071. https://doi.org/10.3390/su16167071
Chicago/Turabian StyleRamírez-Albores, Jorge E., Luis A. Sánchez-González, David A. Prieto-Torres, and Adolfo G. Navarro-Sigüenza. 2024. "Where Are We Going Now? The Current and Future Distributions of the Monk Parakeet (Myiopsitta monachus) and Eurasian Collared Dove (Streptopelia decaocto) in a Megalopolis" Sustainability 16, no. 16: 7071. https://doi.org/10.3390/su16167071