Stronger Hurricanes and Climate Change in the Caribbean Sea: Threats to the Sustainability of Endangered Coral Species
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Sites
2.2. Temporal Variation in Storm Frequency and Intensity across the Northeastern Caribbean
2.3. Status of Acropora palmata Populations
2.4. Status of Acropora cervicornis, Orbicella spp., and Dendrogyra cylindrus Populations
3. Results
3.1. Hurricane Intensification across the Northeastern Caribbean
3.2. Spatio-Temporal Variation in Acropora palmata
3.3. Spatio-Temporal Variation in Endangered Corals Percent Live Cover
3.4. Spatio-Temporal Variation in the Percent Cover of Other Benthic Components
3.5. Spatio-Temporal Variation in Benthic Community Structure
3.6. Spatio-Temporal Variation in Biodiversity
4. Discussion
4.1. Hurricane Impacts to Endangered Corals
4.2. Can Coral Reefs Recover Rapidly from Major Hurricane Impacts?
4.3. A Future of Stronger Hurricanes and Increasing Damage to Caribbean Coral Reefs?
5. Conclusions
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix A
References
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Site | Acronym | Latitude | Longitude |
---|---|---|---|
Cayo Icacos | ICA | 18.379958° | −65.585074° |
Audrey Rock | AUD | 18.379338° | −65.583138° |
Cayo Ratones | RAT | 18.380443° | −65.581537° |
Palominos Island | PLM | 18.353366° | −65.570911° |
Bahía Tamarindo | BTA | 18.314467° | −65.317659° |
Punta Tamarindo Chico | PTC | 18.309368° | −65.317045° |
Playa Carlos Rosario | PCR | 18.327083° | −65.330703° |
Cayo Dákity | DAK | 18.284020° | −65.278355° |
Punta Carenero | CAR | 18.293450° | −65.274178° |
Bajo Amarillo | AMA | 18.279045° | −65.273172° |
Bajo Grouper | GRO | 18.285689° | −65.270431° |
Los Corchos-South | COS | 18.283938° | −65.245307° |
Cabezas Crespás | CRE | 18.291187° | −65.233909° |
Los Corchos-North | CON | 18.303623° | −65.230626° |
Culebrita Island | CBT | 18.315294° | −65.233359° |
Source 1 | Rho | p |
---|---|---|
ATM [CO2] | 0.105 | 0.0187 |
Annual increment [CO2] | −0.042 | 0.7771 |
Temperature anomaly L-O | 0.053 | 0.1460 |
NAO Index | −0.027 | 0.6674 |
Ocean Heat Content | 0.110 | 0.0181 |
Thermosteric component SLC | 0.104 | 0.0234 |
Source 1 | df | Surface Area | Colony Volume | Colony Height | % Live Cover |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Time | 1 | 4.09 | 3.43 | 8.15 | 7.26 |
0.1063 | 0.1291 | 0.0307 | 0.0369 | ||
Region | 1 | 4.09 | 2.69 | 9.98 | 11.05 |
0.1525 | 0.177 | 0.0081 | 0.0044 | ||
Site (Region) | 4 | 11 | 11.84 | 6.75 | 7 |
<0.0001 | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | ||
Time × Region | 1 | 0.6 | 0.74 | 0.21 | 0.004 |
0.557 | 0.5149 | 0.8493 | 0.9711 | ||
Time × Site (region) | 4 | 16.62 | 17.89 | 9.06 | 6.92 |
<0.0001 | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | 0.0002 | ||
Residual | 544 |
Source 1 | df | Proportion Fragmented Colonies | Proportion Recruits (Crusts) |
---|---|---|---|
Time | 1 | 10.5 | 0.64 |
0.0396 | 0.5049 | ||
Region | 1 | 5.63 | 2.42 |
0.178 | 0.2303 | ||
Site (region) | 4 | 3.09 | 0.72 |
0.0158 | 0.5698 | ||
Time × Region | 1 | 1.73 | 0.05 |
0.287 | 0.8341 | ||
Time × Site (region) | 4 | 2.76 | 2.29 |
0.0243 | 0.0604 | ||
Residual | 544 |
Source 1 | df | MS | Pseudo_F | P (Perm) | P (Perm) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Time | 1 | 8830.5 | 114.91 | <0.0001 | 9935 |
Site | 9 | 6225.2 | 81.01 | <0.0001 | 9919 |
Depth | 2 | 2960.2 | 38.52 | <0.0001 | 9955 |
Time × Site | 9 | 741.84 | 9.65 | <0.0001 | 9891 |
Time × Depth | 2 | 794.55 | 10.34 | <0.0001 | 9919 |
Site × Depth | 18 | 299.50 | 3.90 | <0.0001 | 9850 |
Time × Site × Depth | 18 | 133.11 | 1.73 | 0.0019 | 9844 |
Residual | 300 | 76.849 |
Source 1 | df | Acropora cervicornis | Orbicella annularis | Orbicella faveolata | Orbicella franksi | Dendrogyra cylindrus |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Time | 1 | 142.84 <0.0001 | 1.39 0.2406 | 0.42 0.9072 | 0.88 0.3486 | 6.71 0.0063 |
Site Depth Time × Site Time × Depth Site × Depth Time × Site × Depth Residual | 9 2 9 2 18 18 300 | 77.83 <0.0001 14.69 <0.0001 12.67 <0.0001 8.43 0.0002 6.92 <0.0001 3.65 <0.0001 | 50.87 <0.0001 35.92 <0.0001 0.87 0.5522 0.16 0.8932 3.55 <0.0001 0.36 0.9967 | 31.82 <0.0001 30.68 <0.0001 0.55 0.8495 0.03 0.9908 2.83 <0.0001 0.28 0.9994 | 4.55 0.0002 13.90 <0.0001 0.84 0.5848 0.01 0.9952 0.78 0.7171 0.36 0.9930 | 1.10 0.3535 2.74 0.0651 0.66 0.7522 1.70 0.1852 0.93 0.5502 0.84 0.6616 |
Source 1 | df | Macroalgae | Algal Turf | Ramicrusta textilis | Crustose Coralline Algae (Cca) | Cyanobacteria | Sand, Pavement, Rubble (SPR) | Sponge |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Time | 1 | 1102.3 <0.0001 | 120.55 <0.0001 | 92.78 <0.0001 | 70.90 <0.0001 | 162.73 <0.0001 | 51.21 <0.0001 | 3.73 0.0512 |
Site Depth Time × Site Time × Depth Site × Depth Time × Site × Depth Residual | 9 2 9 2 18 18 300 | 45.75 <0.0001 396.33 <0.0001 25.50 <0.0001 57.27 <0.0001 9.97 <0.0001 3.75 <0.0001 | 52.71 <0.0001 111.14 <0.0001 9.53 <0.0001 1.83 0.1544 20.53 <0.0001 6.78 <0.0001 | 37.15 <0.0001 33.01 <0.0001 10.27 <0.0001 4.94 0.0014 15.20 <0.0001 4.15 <0.0001 | 9.55 <0.0001 109.90 <0.0001 4.24 <0.0001 2.74 0.0602 4.32 <0.0001 2.11 0.0026 | 5.90 <0.0001 64.85 <0.0001 4.22 0.0002 5.89 0.0020 4.40 <0.0001 1.65 0.0385 | 28.42 <0.0001 44.81 <0.0001 18.71 <0.0001 15.47 <0.0001 9.20 <0.0001 2.76 <0.0001 | 0.80 0.6119 11.52 <0.0001 0.62 0.7869 0.94 0.3966 0.82 0.6710 0.74 0.7677 |
Source 1 | df | MS | Pseudo_F | P (Perm) | P (Perm) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Time | 1 | 21019 | 128.78 | <0.0001 | 9950 |
Site | 9 | 5966.5 | 36.56 | <0.0001 | 9850 |
Depth | 2 | 11826 | 72.46 | <0.0001 | 9938 |
Time × Site | 9 | 1161.2 | 7.11 | <0.0001 | 9871 |
Time × Depth | 2 | 1682.7 | 10.37 | <0.0001 | 9943 |
Site × Depth | 18 | 1246.9 | 7.64 | <0.0001 | 9824 |
Time × Site × Depth | 18 | 319.78 | 1.96 | <0.0001 | 9834 |
Residual | 300 | 163.22 |
Source 1 | df | Species Richness (S) | Diversity Index (H’c) | Evenness (J’c) |
---|---|---|---|---|
Time | 1 | 88.83 | 66.23 | 5.57 |
<0.0001 | <0.0001 | 0.028 | ||
Site | 9 | 51.39 | 42.41 | 11.86 |
<0.0001 | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | ||
Depth | 2 | 30.2 | 19.78 | 6.02 |
<0.0001 | <0.0001 | 0.0058 | ||
Time × Site | 9 | 3.3 | 4.01 | 7.91 |
0.0006 | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | ||
Time × Depth | 2 | 5.86 | 11.28 | 4.53 |
0.0026 | <0.0001 | 0.0195 | ||
Site × Depth | 18 | 4.58 | 4.58 | 5.34 |
<0.0001 | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | ||
Time × Site × Depth | 18 | 1.04 | 1.69 | 2.35 |
0.4107 | 0.0378 | 0.0055 | ||
Residual | 300 |
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Hernández-Delgado, E.A.; Alejandro-Camis, P.; Cabrera-Beauchamp, G.; Fonseca-Miranda, J.S.; Gómez-Andújar, N.X.; Gómez, P.; Guzmán-Rodríguez, R.; Olivo-Maldonado, I.; Suleimán-Ramos, S.E. Stronger Hurricanes and Climate Change in the Caribbean Sea: Threats to the Sustainability of Endangered Coral Species. Sustainability 2024, 16, 1506. https://doi.org/10.3390/su16041506
Hernández-Delgado EA, Alejandro-Camis P, Cabrera-Beauchamp G, Fonseca-Miranda JS, Gómez-Andújar NX, Gómez P, Guzmán-Rodríguez R, Olivo-Maldonado I, Suleimán-Ramos SE. Stronger Hurricanes and Climate Change in the Caribbean Sea: Threats to the Sustainability of Endangered Coral Species. Sustainability. 2024; 16(4):1506. https://doi.org/10.3390/su16041506
Chicago/Turabian StyleHernández-Delgado, Edwin A., Pedro Alejandro-Camis, Gerardo Cabrera-Beauchamp, Jaime S. Fonseca-Miranda, Nicolás X. Gómez-Andújar, Pedro Gómez, Roger Guzmán-Rodríguez, Iván Olivo-Maldonado, and Samuel E. Suleimán-Ramos. 2024. "Stronger Hurricanes and Climate Change in the Caribbean Sea: Threats to the Sustainability of Endangered Coral Species" Sustainability 16, no. 4: 1506. https://doi.org/10.3390/su16041506